저자: Kevin · 외국인
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매크로 베어 'Macro Man'이 6개월간 비관론을 접고 과거 50년 S&P500 월간 -7.5% 후 +7.5% 반등 패턴을 근거로 강세 전환을 시사했다고 소개. 1928년 이후 데이터상 2차대전 이후 연준 개입기에는 1·3·6·12개월 수익률이 대체로 양호했다는 분석. 발표자는 현재 현금 94% 투자 상태에서 시리즈 A 투자 집행 후 올인 의향을 밝히고, 시청자에게 강세 전환을 권유함.
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oh my gosh i never thought i would see the day folks you know that i use the bloomberg terminal i do a lot of research on the bloomer terminal i do a lot of research on refinitive which is the reuters version of that i also go through hedge fund letters and bank and letters i mean i i'd go through hours and hours of research every single day this is one guy who's been like this perma bear all year long he's called the macro man and he does this like twice a shall we call him where he basically poops on the market and he's been so freaking negative all year long and you know what rightfully so i started the year out really negative as well but then i started seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and now i'm like 94 in the market and the cash i have is probably gonna just go into the series a that we're launching and then basically i'll be all in right so so like obviously at some point i u-turned and became bullish again which is what i said i would do at the beginning of the year i'm like i'm going to sell sit out some of the pain and then rebuy okay great so what happened with this mr macroman that's so interesting and what does it mean about the potential bottom of a market is he potentially a signal that the u-turn is in well i want to show you his article because i have to say there are so many lessons in this you're going to explode okay maybe not but take a look at it okay we'll go through it together he says one of the biggest challenges in the investment game is to properly synthesize and assess the flows of incoming data this is a really good point because it's like there's so much freaking data it's quite rare for developments to tilt entirely in the direction of one's investment thesis that's true you might be really bearish on the market right now but then there are bullish things going on it's like damn you know that doesn't line up right it nothing ever is always in one direction and he says ultimately investors have to make a decision he's basically prepping for his flip-flop okay it's glorious so we have to go through it investors have to make a decision about whether to change their position observers on the other hand merely have to determine whether to change their view so he's making this argument that like people who just observe the market uh maybe like reporters or people who make youtube videos that don't actually put their money where their mouth is like they just kind of talk about it well they could just kind of talk about what's changing but investors actually have to make a decision do you put your head on the line and make a move and then tell people about it right for the most part this year this column has sketched out a pretty negative framework for equities and risky assets that view was being challenged however as the s p just put in a pattern of behavior that marked five of the most significant market bottoms of the past 50 years you don't have to this this gets so fascinating i mean i love what he did here basically i'm gonna i'm gonna scroll past this next stuff here about people like basically wanting to protect their brand because they don't want to change their opinion you know people don't want to be defined a flip-flopper and that's basically what he's saying here like there are plenty of market participants who basically only present facts that support their publicly disclosed thesis because if you talked about other facts well then then you you would be contradicting what your position is right i don't want to do that ever like if if i see something that's like gosh damn that that doesn't align with my thesis then i have to actually look and go well maybe it's time for me to flip flop right and this is what's so fascinating about investing anyway this guy been super bearish right okay listen to this this is remarkable so what he did is watch this watch this how often has the market followed up a huge monthly decline with a rally of a similar magnitude going all the way back to 1928 this person filtered every occasion in which the s p 500 followed up a monthly drop of at least seven five seven point five percent so let me make that really really close crystal clear what he did is he basically filtered the s p 500 and said hey give me months that had a 7.5 decline then show me times like years periods of time where the very next month was up 7.5 this is literally what just happened okay june to july negative 7.5 up 7.5 that's a big deal it's a big move and the returns before the war right here were kind of bad they were pretty paltry in fact if you look at the returns before world war ii you'll see that 12 months out in 1931 you would have lost an extra 70 percent an extra 17 percent 33 an extra three percent over here when that happened again in 33 you would have gotten 12 percent return only after being up 35 after six months but then ending up only 12 up after a year in 1938 so not so great right like before the war before world war ii not great in fact after a year here you had that one percent negative one percent return in 1940 but then when the fed actually started getting more active look at the second half right here look at this after the fed's involvement in the market you basically in a one three and six month period almost always had positive in fact let me highlight the positive 3 6 12 positive 6 and 12 positive 1 positive all positive in 2009 all positive in 2019 all positive in 2020.
you only had a one month period here in 74 and a three month period here where you actually had a negative return look how freaking green that is like i shouldn't even have fetty easing in that same color there so let's hide this this right here bullish this is great and i love that he eats it because he says it here in fact if you take a look at the 1974 to 2020 average it's positive all across on average but before the war it's actually negative kind of interesting okay but anyway listen to this the columns in this table okay well i already explained what all this says oh yeah look at him put this on a chart okay like if this doesn't make you bullish if this doesn't make you wanna use coupon code series a to get the best price we currently got on the courses with me kevin i don't know what you're up to maybe you just need 50 off with seeking alpha by going to mckevin.com seeking alpha they made the deal really sweet go there met kevin.com seeking out when you see it but look at this chart oh my gosh okay here we go s p well s p 500 monthly rallies of 7.5 following loss right where were those okay where were those folks look at that the depth right here the depth right here that was in the early 70s this is by the dot-com bubble this is in 2000 excuse me 2009 this over here in 2019 and 2020.
folks if you literally want a post world war ii a market a bottom indicator it is literally this a negative 7.5 month at least a negative 7.5 month followed by at least a positive 7.5 month and so what's really kind of interesting about this is after this he says anyone running money now has to decide whether the price action of the past couple months and the precedence of the last 50 years have any revelence for a change in investment stance really interesting these days my job is a bit easier it's to help you the reader make the most informed decisions this guy's great i really really appreciate this person and even though i don't always agree with everything he says i love reading his perspective and he's basically telling you like you gotta ask yourself like dude when the macro man flip-flops and like oh damn maybe the bottom isn't maybe it's time to start scratching your head and wondering why are you sitting around get in the freaking market i don't know this was really exciting me i had to share it hopefully you found it helpful let me know what you think by going to metcalf.com chat which is our discord tag me and let's chat it up thanks you
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