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If you're buying Bitcoin today, it's still early. I don't think it's too late. So, if you have zero exposure to Bitcoin and you feel like you missed it, 95% of investors have zero Bitcoin exposure. So, you're still way ahead if you're buying Bitcoin today. If you look at Bitcoin wallets, comparing it to the internet, we're back to 1996 levels.
Internet went exponential from 1996. So, it's still the earliest days when I started on Wall Street in the '9s. That's also what I heard on Wall Street. I remember our economist and our bond heads of fixed income saying the US is on an unsustainable path for debt. And that was 35 years ago. So, for the next 35 years, you're going to hear the same thing.
The US is on an unst unsustainable path of debt. yet it's probably not going to make a difference. According to Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, 95% of investors still have zero exposure to Bitcoin. That means if you're buying today, you're still early, but that window won't stay open for long.
Onchain data from Glass Node shows a steady rise in active addresses and long-term holder supply, signaling that real adoption is quietly accelerating beneath the surface. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs are bringing in billions in net inflows, confirming that institutional capital is finally entering at scale.
Despite improved access, robust infrastructure, and rising demand, most investors remain on the sidelines, unaware, unconvinced, or waiting for clarity. As a result, the broader market has yet to fully price in the next phase of Bitcoin's growth. That's exactly why Tom Lee believes now is the best time to invest.
With adoption building and global macro conditions shifting, he sees Bitcoin as poised for a major repricing during this cycle. The opportunity is here, but wait too long and you'll miss it. Stick around to hear Tom Lee's full breakdown on where the market stands, what's driving sentiment, and how he expects the second half of the year and 2026 to unfold.
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Well, the stock market in 2025 faced a black swan because tariff liberation day was a shock and it created a downward spiral in stocks falling 20% in the fastest pace uh or one of the fastest pace in a 100 years. There have only been 12 times in history that stocks fell a similar amount and a similar speed.
And I think the mistake many people made was that that shock turned people bearish. As you mentioned, we did think there would be a correction this year. But the reason I think we didn't turn bearish even though this was a huge decline is three things. One, um, we didn't expect President Trump to stick with the tariff terms.
So even though in the beginning they claimed this was the deal and everyone had to take it, we thought they would eventually walk back um those terms which is what's happened. And in fact what we've seen so far is the tariffs are much much milder than many people thought at the start of the year. So we're actually in a better place.
The second is many economists convinced you that there'd be a recession. Do you remember uh all these economists said a recession's guaranteed and that's why everybody panicked and sold their stocks. But we don't necessarily listen to economists. We prefer to watch what the high yield market is doing.
And the high yield market, while it showed some turbulence, actually moved in a way that said there might be a growth scare. So there's a difference between a growth scare and a recession. A growth scare just means everybody gets cautious, which is understandable. And the third reason we didn't turn bearish is that waterfall declines like we saw usually come back as a V-shaped recovery.
And that was our argument that this would be a V-shaped bounce. And in fact, we were pretty convinced of it because the VIX, which is a measure of volatility, jumped to 60. And if you look at the last 35 years, anytime the VIX has moved above 60, no matter what you think, you have to buy the stock market because that's pure terror.
The market is so scared, they're not pricing anything, and that's why you have to buy that. And so stocks had a V-shaped bounce. And now that we're almost back to the old highs, I'm finding a lot of people are still bearish. Maybe in the audience, you guys are still bearish thinking, I don't see why stocks came back, so I don't really want to buy the stock market now.
But here's something to keep in mind. In 2025, we've already had a 20% decline. The chances of a 10% decline between now and year end is very low. It might even be statistically 0%. So maybe the stock market could trade sideways for a little bit, but the chances of us declining again are very low. Fed is not cutting rates right now and Fed Chair Powell said he's not cutting interest rates because he's expecting inflation to rise over the summer because of tariffs.
That might kind of make sense. I mean, I'd say if someone said that to me, I'd say I understand that prices should be going up because of tariffs, but that is not actually how monetary policy should be administered. The Fed is really supposed to overlook supply shocks. So, if you have a supply shock like a tax and it causes a one-time rise in price, the the central bank is not supposed to adjust monetary policy for that because they're the the Fed is trying to control demand.
Meaning, if there's so much demand for something that it causes prices to go up, they try to tighten monetary policy. But because of tariffs is more like a supply shock. the Fed should actually look through it. The bond market is starting to make that conclusion. On Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the bond market disagreed with the Fed.
Interest rates actually went down in the last couple of days because they don't believe the Fed should be on hold. And that's also been our argument that the Fed, if they're not cutting now, they have to do more cuts next year. Maybe more importantly, most people think stock rallies are only because the Fed is easing, adding liquidity.
That's why at in the April lows, people were saying the stock market couldn't rebound because the Fed wasn't going to add liquidity. But guess what? We had a V-shaped bounce anyways. And so, it shows you the central bank isn't needed for stocks to rally. But next year we think they're going to cut a lot and that should support stocks.
And as far as positioning goes, I I don't think you really explained our view on sectors this year. At the start of this year, our top calls were industrials, financials, and tech. That was first, second, and third. Year-to date, industrials, financials are outperforming the market, and tech is actually beginning to outperform.
So that's really been our stance this year. But with the Fed cutting rates next year, I think that's going to be good for interest sensitive. So that should really support financials and it should support small and midcaps. Despite earlier concerns over tariffs, inflation, and Fed tightening, the US stock market has remained resilient.
According to Tom Lee, we're now entering a more favorable environment, one marked by easing financial conditions, and a potential shift in Fed policy by 2026. He believes this backdrop could support not just equities but crypto markets as well. Beyond short-term cycles, Lee also touches on a long-standing concern for investors.
US debt and the future of the dollar. Warnings about unsustainable deficits and borrowing have persisted for decade. Yet, the US continues to lead in capital markets, innovation, and corporate dominance. Home to 21 of the world's 25 largest companies. The dollar still dominates global trade, not because it's perfect, but because there's no serious alternative, at least not yet.
That may be changing. Analysts and Bitcoin advocates like Samson Mo, Jack Malers, and Michael Sailor argue that the very flaws in the current system are what make Bitcoin so compelling. With its fixed supply, global accessibility, and resistance to monetary manipulation, Bitcoin is emerging as a potential alternative to fiat.
As more institutions, nations, and individuals question the long-term future of traditional currencies, one has to ask, could Bitcoin be next in line? Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Now, back to Tom Lee's insight. How we should look at understand the the physical uh situation and any potential risk here.
When you read the newspaper or you hear financial commentators, a lot of people tell you the US is in trouble because of the debt, the deficit and the US has unsustainable debt. And that's true because we know the path for the US debt is unsustainable. But here's the thing. When I started on Wall Street in the 90s, that's also what I heard on Wall Street.
I remember our economist and our bond heads of fixed income saying the US is on an unsustainable path for debt. And that was 35 years ago. So for the next 35 years, you're going to hear the same thing. The US is on an unst unsustainable path of debt. Yet it's probably not going to make a difference.
That's my opinion. But I do agree that we're in a very strange world because the US prints money and they print a lot of dollars and yet the borrowing cost is really low. It's very mysterious to me, but I don't think today's levels represent any sort of break point. And here's a really simple way to think of it.
Um, one dollars is the reason people have used you know owned bonds right and used the US economy and dollars are mostly used for speculation. You know for every dollar of GDP activity that we have the dollar is traded in oil bonds equities 400 times. So, as long as the US is the most liquid economy in the world, we're going to print a lot of dollars and interest rates are going to stay low.
Um, and the second is that as much as you hear stories that say the US is losing its importance, so the rest of the world is becoming more dominant and that's why the US is in trouble. One, again, I've heard that story for 35 years. Everyone's told me the US exceptionalism has been over and it yet has never ended.
If you look at the 25 largest companies in the world, 21 of the 25 largest are in America. So just because US borrowing costs might change, is Germany going to suddenly be the place where the next Mag 7 comes? Like just because borrowing costs change in the US, will Germany suddenly be the next Silicon Valley?
I mean, if you believe that, then you should bet against the US. I'm very skeptical of that. So, I think it's you shouldn't make a portfolio decision thinking stocks are going to fall because someone told you the US can't fund its deficit. You did mention that you were one of the first on Wall Street to make a call on Bitcoin, but do you agree that Bitcoin, Ethereum, these um cryptocurrencies will continue to do very well um uh for the next couple of years?
Yeah. I mean, I think Bitcoin is if you're buying Bitcoin today, it's still early. I don't think it's too late. So if you have zero exposure to Bitcoin and you feel like you missed it, 95% of investors have zero Bitcoin exposure. So you're still way ahead if you're buying Bitcoin today. If you look at Bitcoin wallets comparing it to the internet, we're back to 1996 levels.
Internet went exponential from 1996. So it's still the earliest days. I think Bitcoin is very useful because in the future we're not going to be able to trust anything cuz cyber security there's nothing secure anymore. We can uh sample your voice. I mean even someone takes our voice translates into Korean using my voice.
You'll never know what's true anymore. So you need to be able to trust a system. The blockchain, the Bitcoin blockchain is the most trusted blockchain and that's why the United States wants to have a million Bitcoin. US companies are buying Bitcoin. Banks will soon carry Bitcoin as collateral. But Ethereum is really important, too.
Did any of you buy the Circle IPO or own Circle? Circle is a stable coin and they just went public 10 days ago at $31. It's now $242. What is the ticker code? CR L C L Circle is a stable coin. It's the second largest. Stable coins are being pushed by the United States government. Here's the thing. Circle runs on Ethereum.
Stable coins run on Ethereum. So as stable coins explode, Ethereum is the backbone for stable coins. So I think Ethereum is going to make a big comeback as well. So I think those two are useful. And then Salana I like, but it it's not nearly as used as um Ethereum. Bitcoin briefly broke above $111,000 in May, but hasn't yet managed to stay consistently above the $100,000 level.
Tom Lee suggests part of this slowdown could be early investors cashing out. Some who bought in as low as $100 are ready to sell. Regardless of whether Bitcoin ever reaches a million dollars, while Bitcoin's price may be pausing, the broader crypto ecosystem is rapidly gaining momentum. Coinbase jumped 40% in June, fueled by optimism around stable coins, the Genius Act, and the upcoming Circle IPO.
All of which have helped restore confidence in crypto infrastructure. For long-term holders not selling, staking has become a key strategy. Though Ethereum and Salana aren't rallying right now, staking these assets offers investors a way to earn income while they wait. Institutional players like Black Rockck and platforms such as Robin Hood are embracing staking services, signaling its potential as a major growth area.
At the same time, crypto ETFs are attracting huge inflows boosted by fee waiverss and easier access that appeal to both retail and professional investors. With ETF adoption rising and staking yields drawing fresh capital, Tom Lee's original thesis remains intact. Crypto's best days may not be behind us.
They could just be getting started. For those still on the sidelines, this might not be the end of the rally, but the beginning of something bigger.
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