저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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인도 증시는 현재 고평가 구간이지만 기업 실적 낙관과 구조적 자금 유입으로 중장기 상승 여력이 있다는 주장. 기업 현장 분위기: 최근 2일간 10~12개 기업과 면담했는데 대체로 강세 전망이며, 제조·서비스·수출·기술 등 전 분야에서 투자 확대와 산업 구조 변화가 감지된다고 언급. 경제 성장: 인도 성장률 7~8% 수준을 전망하며, 2023~24년 6~6.5%, 2024~25년 약 7% 가능성 제시. 철도 등 정부 자본지출(연 2.5조 루피 규모)이 대형 수주로 이어질 것이라 봄. 밸류에이션: 인도 시장은 전 세계 최고 수준으로 비싸며(PER 약 22배, 일본 다음), 현재 역대 고점 구간이라 단기~중기(1~3년) 수익률은 제한될 수 있음. 다만 조정 시 10~15% 하락 구간이 매수 기회라고 봄. 외국인(FII) 수급: 1993년 이후 30년간 순매도는 5년뿐이라 향후 3~4년은 순매수 우위 가능성이 높고, 올해 순매도는 의외일 것이라 전망. 인도는 중국·브라질 대비 불가피한 투자처라는 논리. 국내 개인 수급: 증권계좌 수가 2020년 약 4천만에서 2023년 약 1억 2,500만(2.3억 수준 표기는 자막 오류 가능)으로 늘었고, 4~5년 내 2.5억 계좌 전망. 국내 유동성이 증시로 계속 유입될 것이라 봄. 공급 및 IPO: 수요 증가로 공급(IPO·블록딜·프로모터 매도)이 늘어날 것이며, 정부 PSU 지분 매각과 IPO 절차 간소화(승인 기간 단축, 최소 상장 규모 완화 등)를 제안. F&O·개인 투자자 리스크: 개인의 옵션 매도 중심 거래 증가와 대규모 거래대금을 우려하기보다는 '필요악'으로 보며, 시장이 추세적으로 움직이는 동안 수익이 나지만 붕괴 시 큰 손실 가능성 경고. 투자자는 탐욕 통제, 수익의 재투자 자제가 필요하다고 조언. 장기 전망: 인도 경제는 2031년 전후 약 10조 달러 규모(현재 약 3.75조 달러) 도달 가능성을 시사하며, 단기 과대평가·장기 과소평가를 경계하고 인내심 있는 장기 투자 강조. 리스크: 미국 금리 급등, 글로벌 통화 혼란, 경쟁적 평가절하, 지정학 리스크 등 예측 불가 변수 존재. 개별 종목·자산 직접 언급 없음(대상 자산 목록 관련 발언은 없음).
다듬은 글
foreign Financial Services 19 Global investor conscience out there and in conversation with the chairman and co-founder of motilal oswal ramdev Agarwal ji I'm going to start off by asking you what sense are you picking up from the conversations that you're having with the hnis and the corporates out there for the India growth story yeah so actually it has been very busy for last two days and we must attended about uh 10 12 corporate uh from very different uh segments I mean from Manufacturing Services exports uh technology all sorts of combination and what I'm sensing is that you know I mean in the stock market we are only bullish we are carrying the bullish story ourselves but it looks at corporates are actually uh sounding a little more bullish than as much bullish I am so it looks at it's a it's mutual in a sense that it's not that we are in the air about bullishness because there is a flow and there is a market is all-time high and things like that but they themselves are charting out huge possibilities I mean nobody is talking about the I mean you ask about the risk nobody has any anything which is visible of course there is a risk which is not known to anybody but it looks that it's a picture perfect and uh almost all the sector guys who came of course there all successful companies doing very well they have been asked to present in the CEO track but even their own it looks at the lot of change in the industry structures and a lot of discipline in The Lending and all banking sector is in a brink of Health mbf sectors and think of Health Hospitality sector is in great demand Hospital sectors and great demand Aviation cannot fill the seats I can't find enough planes so I think it looks as if if this seven eight percent and one day Bharat you know wonderful program by government everything runs into a few thousand rows in terms of order sizes so I think the mood is building up I think if you can take it Forward into say 23 24 already six six and a half percent kind of growth but in by chance 24 25 also goes to closer to seven percent six and a half percent post political debate I think it's not then the price okay so you think Indian Equity markets right now still are not that expensive given the kind of optimism that is building in from the corporate size of course we've seen a large huge participation coming in from the retail side and we're going to touch base on that as well of the Revolution that you think is coming in from the retail category but overall in terms of the valuation and the themes that you think could be the next Alpha generators for the markets your perspective it's not that market is cheap no way I mean it is fun to buy into the markets when it is very cheap it has been sold out like not exactly like Kobe time but many times there is of 10 15 for some reason there is a correction because some global reasons or something and that's a very sweet spot to buy into the market right now we are sitting at all time high clearly so that would definitely moderate the shorter term returns say one or two years three years longer term doesn't matter half percent here there so clearly that aspect is there but but when you hear the corporates that the kind of government is committing to capital expenditure in in various sectors particularly Railways I mean two and half Lakers per annum like it's not one time and when you Dole out those orders of Two and a Half lakh crores you imagine I mean there will be only eight ten main players to whom these kind of orders are going so uh so this is a scale change and of course there will be a below them other suppliers are components applies to them so it is going to have effect my sense is that as we go forward and if there is no disturbance from the Indian economy I think momentum will pick up I mean like quarter one quarter two quarter three quarter four as a global geopolitics also gets some kind of resolution I mean of course there could be some disturbance in terms of say this U.S interest rate is going up Suddenly it goes out of hand it rises by 100 200 basis point or something so those things I don't know I mean like there could be a chaos in the Global Currency markets and things like that there could be competitive devaluations so we don't know from where the risk will come but right now picture looks perfect in fact better than before the conference I would say okay so you probably more optimism which is developing posts more confidence I would say okay we're always optimized yeah okay so let's talk about let's you know divide the conversation in three bits where where first gonna address the foreign institutional flows and the retail Behavior second part we're going to talk about bit about the economy and third about how foolish are you overall on India but speaking about fii Trend in August the spa we've seen um attracting India attracting the highest level of fii compared to that of Emerging Market compared to that of develop economies there is significant traction building up for fiis do you see that uh you know same wiggle going forward for an iniquity markets see I can only look into the history from 1993 they started coming so this is almost 30 years of their history of very active participation in Indian markets in 30 years only five years they have sold net net during the year they could have few months they could be negative few months they could be positive but overall only five net years I mean among 30 calendar years they're only 30 years five years out of 30 they are net negative and incidentally last year was one of them right so if you look at the series a few Charter series prob the probability is very high that they will be buying rather than selling for next three four years for sure at least for next this year definitely there are no two consecutive year of selling you can never so that never say that it will never happen but very unlikely in the given environment and the bullishness they have so if they are forget about how much they'll buy I don't know I have no idea but they will not sell but I'll be very surprised if it is not negative in the current year so that that takes care of the one of the players in the market which is very important right second in the retail yes and uh instead I presented that thing the retail Equity revolution in India and we are we are incidentally one of the largest uh retail Equity guys um 98 of the PIN codes in India that's the reach of Mother's distribution so we are beneficiary of the retail Revolution and the size of the Revolution I can tell you the number of demat accounts I mean it's just one of the was about 40 million by 2020 and now it is 125 million 23 million so and in my uh some rough estimate in next four five years it is headed for 250 million and still it is not done after 250 also there is not end of the day I mean we could be going to 300 and 400 500 but let's talk about what is going to happen in next four five years so I think the and they don't have any choice they have to buy only if if at allocation they are going to buy into India only foreigners are the choice whether to go to China whether to go to Brazil or India this is one of the markets right they can allocate they will allocate say instead of ten percent maybe twelve percent thirty percent but they cannot so what I'm saying is that Indian uh Indian retail has no choice but to dump money here and that makes a situation very interesting you you have the foreigners buying your domestics buying now from where the supply will come that's the thing so the supplies of course for a given price Supply will come from the sky okay markets are wonderful it's a free market supplies will come either promoters will sell if nothing else yeah but real opportunity for the nation and for the regulators and the nation Builders is that allow a lot of money to go from the stock market market cap to the real economy okay so three four five lakh crore must go into the uh uh uh in into the markets and keep the market little cool so if the Paper Supply increases one from the private Equity the private Equity Funds and second from unlisted new companies who want to come into the market so how do we facilitate that or even government selling PSU stocks into the marketplace or uh reducing the minimum size of the listing from 75 to 65 so I mean Regulators know from where to get the papers but I think you know very demanding kind of situation India is already amongst the most expensive markets right only Japan is little above India there are 26 times we are 22 times okay but that's the distinction we have of amongst the most expensive markets so uh let's not go into more expensive Zone try to keep the expensiveness here and good thing is that we have good corporate earnings also right in the next year coming in so you have the DI buying you have fi buying you have good corporate earnings growth uh so we are we have picture perfect you know right now sure yeah so this is an opportunity for The Regulators to open the floodgates of the IPO markets and let the money go into the real economy which will further ballista the economy itself I'm gonna get on to the IPO markets in just a bit but I first want to address the retail growth story because we've seen a sharp uptake retail investors are mostly Park their money in fno and from that fy19 to okay let's just say if not completely in fno from FY 19 to 23 there is this youth search typically which has come through in the fno market to an extent of 500 percent 9 out of 10 traders in last two years or so they've seen a lot of losses taking place in the epino markets sure dmat accounts are going up but at the same time you also have this category where yes where there are shop losses being utilized for the retail category what is your advice for that do you think more education should come in for the retail category you think more measures should come in probably where the losses could be kept how are you looking at it to your perspective I'm a little unprecedented I've never seen anything like this I mean we are we are trading few trillion dollars per day I mean editio of the entire Market is running into uh two two and a half three trillion dollars per day and it's still climbing at 25 30 so the because the number of people who are participating are very high and Market is trended see what happens is the losses are also less see basically they are under uh underwriting or their selling options and in that they get the premium that's how the participation is very high right so but then if the market is trended all the premiums are income but when the markets are choppy then they start losing exactly you know so in this phase they are likely to make money and the whole situation in fact it will become bigger and bigger till some collapse happens so uh I think uh that is a necessary evil and this is the because of the technology because of mobile trading because of liquidity of the market reliability of the market settlement system t plus one settlement system so everything is so good people are different and this product is being accepted so I would not find it uh completely out of place I'm just surprised by the size of participation exactly it doesn't scare you at any given point of time you know are we into Casino zone or something like that but uh yes I mean for me I have the old history of uh no kind of speculation type in fact I don't speculate I never trade in the same so one has to be careful how much you are speculating uh have you got your loss under control or your whatever your greed under control rather I would say when you're making money don't pyramid it so much that one in one loss you might lose out everything so that is very important uh in a speculation and all but uh yeah this unusual time for me to say anything because since I don't know the trade what can I say so in the picture of story that you that we're building up do you think there are three lessons that the retail investors should keep in mind because they go out and venture out there because the optimism continues to build on corporates continue to pose uh stable earnings growth thus far Indian economy seems to be in a bright spot what do you think would be 2-3 advice that you would give to our retail investors out there before they go out and Venture into investing yeah so you have to you have to choose your word properly retail investor right investor doesn't have any problem because it is very difficult to lose money in Indian market I can tell you this right I mean even the failed companies also have made money I mean you might make less money but outright if you buy 10 12 companies even by throwing Dart you make decent amount of money okay because Market is very trended it has been growing at 12 13 if you have I mean if your investor type you hold I mean even if you have bought it wrong price you hold for two three years as a portfolio you will definitely make money right so it is very difficult to lose money uh in a in Indian market for investor speculators you know the outcome can be quite dramatic in the sense you can you can make dramatic amount of money on a very small amount of capital if you are very good in trading and you can I mean you know a lot of people they lose money right so it's a lot of fun but you end up losing money at the end of the day yeah so it is for you to figure out how much you want to lose and you have to be you must control your greed and don't pyramid take your winnings and convert into Investments I mean a lot of people they ask me from where to start I mean where to get the capital should we trade first and get the capital I don't I don't think that's the way but if somebody's doing it in that case and if you're winning also in the market then you must keep taking out money and keep buying stocks okay start investing don't put everything uh at the risk okay all right um also a sense of bit caution do you think are you sensing because promoters technically are going out there through ofs and selling out some chunk block deals perhaps does that worry you at all stock price is high stocks will come from the sky I'm telling you whether I mean it is for the regular if The Regulators don't Supply the market with the IPOs it will come from the blocks and smart promoters once they know that's a replacement of a company say somebody's put up the project for thousand crores and uh yeah the market is trading at five hunger you must sell 10 20 of that yeah exactly so that uh you know you can capture this you capture the thing so there is always a so there is a value and Price Right value who knows value the price knows everybody knows the price but nobody knows the value at least the promoter has some sense at what price I can replace what is the value of what he has so the moment he sees that value is say uh say that thousand crore the value say two and a half thousand grows but if you take it to five thousand course or seven thousand calls he's definitely going to supply or if not him his latest will supply his employees will supply so there is enough Supply and it's a very efficient market extremely well I would say informed holders are there so it's not that but then this is an opportunity for the government to supply the PSU stocks uh use this tap this opportunity to divest uh this is a time to uh for a lot of unlisted companies to come into the market one way other it is for The Regulators to make life easier I mean instead of clearing in nine months three months five months I think you should see to it that in 30 days flat once the application comes you should be able to clear it so something like that even underwriting process why they have to go and break the heads with a few mutual funds if the any broker or bank is willing to underwrite please let them underwrite and start the issue rather than waiting for 50 60 subscription coming from few institutional investors so I think there can be a lot of reforms I mean and I'm quite sure but I think measures must be taken to open up the floodgates of ips apart from these two measures one was the underwriting criteria the second one that you suggested was the time period probably that could shorten it anything apart from that I have my knowledge of issue is process is limited and I mean there are Global examples maybe they can they can they can learn few more things from American markets how exactly their underwriting process works how how they can speed up now it's completely digital we have more digital than any anywhere in the world thanks to sebi so what I'm saying is that can they can they make it easier I mean they would know where exactly the pain point is where exactly it is getting blocked uh so I'm just saying that Supply more paper in the market because there is a demand okay so let's get on to the vision of Indian economy the growth which is you know probably the target of 10 trillion dollar economy that you're looking at at the present of 3.75 what do you make out of it when do you think we're gonna hit that Mark how sustainable are we at that point of level how far we can get on to that level please uh give me your Twitter so one of the things I have been in the market for 40 years I have seen this economy going from maybe 100 100 billion dollars to now three three thousand seven fifty billion dollars right okay so I've seen this this kid or this country growing in terms of size the economy we talk about thousands of plane being ordered by our Aviation company you know so these are very different scale now and we have this is just a start of the scale so I think when when you talk about seven eight years of doubling up the economies eight years in 2031 or something will be eateries it will happen maybe a year here and there it definitely happens some covet kind of disruptions and also it will get delivered by a year or two the issue is that we we overestimate what can happen in two three years and we underestimate what can happen in 18 years right and this transformation happens I have seen the IT industry growing uh in 2000 uh the exports were just about 5 billion and we appointed McKenzie and all and they came out with the report by 2010 will be 60 billion our industry yeah and it looked like uh I mean when you are a 5 billion how do you visualize what is 60 billion today TCS alone is 28 29 billion dollars so you know in the longer run what happens we underestimate right and that is where the investors patience comes because those things will happen but you have to sit through you know and I mean but then media and uh everybody tends to portray picture that you can make very quick money in the stock market no it is all about the pressure I don't think we can make that is what I get a sense
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