Jeremy Grantham | One of the Great Speculative Times is Here | Super Bubble Warning

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2022년 8월 기준 시장은 아직 바닥이 아니며 추가 하락 가능성이 크다는 시각이 중심이다. 그랜섬: 미국 주식과 주택시장은 저금리·재정부양이 만든 '슈퍼 버블' 상태이며, S&P500이 현재 수준에서 추가로 약 25% 하락할 수 있고 그 이후 더 나빠질 수 있다고 경고. 하락 기간은 대략 3년 정도로 언급됨. 경기침체 전망: 웰스파고 투자연구소는 곧 침체가 시작될 것으로 예측, 모건스탠리는 1년 내 침체 확률 36%로 추정. 반면 노던트러스트는 2022년 침체는 피할 수 있다고 봄. 주식시장 전망: 모건스탠리는 베어마켓이 끝나지 않았다고 보며 기업 실적 악화와 금리 상승, 소비자 신뢰 하락을 우려. 골드만삭스는 7월 변동성이 최근보다 낮아졌지만 평균 이상의 변동성은 지속될 것으로 봄. 출연자 조언: 하락장에서도 정기 적립(달러코스트에버리징)과 분산투자 유지, 저비용 광역 지수펀드 활용, 손실 상태 매도 지양. 장기 투자자에게는 낮은 가격이 기회라는 의견. 리스크: 연준의 공격적 긴축, 우크라이나 전쟁발 원자재·식량 인플레, 인플레이션 약 9% 수준. 주식 채권 모두 변동성 확대 우려. 인플레이션 대응: 역사적으로 주식시장 연평균 수익률 약 10%, 분산투자로 물가 상승 방어 가능하다는 주장. 개별 종목·자산에 대한 구체 방향 언급은 없음(시장 전반 및 S&P500 중심).

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01. wall street heavyweight jeremy grantham warned recently that despite the s p 500's bad start to the year he predicts more stock market falls he said it's likely that there will be considerably more pain before this is finished if grantham the chief investment strategist of asset management company grantham mayo van alterloo is correct the s p 500 will fall another 25 percent from present levels and things might worsen from there since last year grantham has claimed that u.s equities and the housing market are in a super bubble caused by an age of widespread speculation in hazardous assets we have been through one of the great speculative times he remarked this week emphasizing that a combination of robust fiscal stimulus and weak monetary policy created a perfect environment for speculating so what are expert stock market predictions for the remainder of 2022 2022 a roller coaster trip for investors the s p 500 index entered a bear market in june a 20 drop from its previous high and effectively ended two years of extraordinarily robust growth and earnings stocks have since risen with all three major indexes recording their largest one-day percentage increases since june 24 but there's no assurance such benefits will last the economy is still in a state of extreme uncertainty inflation continues to rise despite the federal reserve's efforts to keep prices under control by increasing interest rates the housing market continues to become more expensive as mortgage rates rise and stock market sectors that have thrived over the last two years think tech companies and work from home stocks like zoom and peloton are no longer operating as well as earnings seasons begin investors are looking for indications about the status of the economy and the stock market's anticipated direction in the coming months a recession might be on the way wells fargo investment institute experts predict a slump citing a protracted period of increased inflation and the fed's forceful policy reaction we are forecasting a recession that will likely begin shortly as per scott wren senior global market strategist in a research note on wednesday we may already be in a technical recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth rin argues but we don't know for sure until the government releases official gdp figures later this month morgan stanley estimates a 36 chance of a recession within the next year citing more unemployment and fewer job vacancies while others are more hopeful we continue to expect the economy to decline significantly but to escape a recession in 2022 says katie nixon chief investment officer at northern trust wealth management nixon claims that the economy has not shrunk sufficiently and the labor market has not suffered sufficiently to justify labeling the present slump of formal recession stocks may tumble much more investors should not become too comfortable following the stock market surge last week make no mistake wrote a team of morgan stanley analysts even if we avert a recession we do not believe this bear market is gone according to the experts led by chief u.s equity strategist michael wilson equities are unlikely to expand as much in the coming year as corporations battle with inflation which is wreaking havoc on their bottom lines rising borrowing rates and dwindling consumer confidence are also threatening company earnings according to northern trusts nixon continuing fed tightening or a lack of market confidence following a dismal results season may potentially send equities lower jeremy grantham creator of investment company gmo has taken a more severe stance it's possible that there will be significantly more pain before this is completed he told the associated press in a recent interview grantham predicted that the decline would endure another six to three years pointing out that the timing of a market bottom is notoriously difficult to predict more turbulence lies ahead whether or not there is a recession investors should brace themselves for a bumpy ride in both the stock and bond markets for the rest of the year as the fed maintains its aggressive approach to containing inflation and markets digest every economic release with zeal there's no doubt fixed income iniquities will experience bouts of heightened volatility writes peter sl commonwealth financial networks head of portfolio management in a blog post recently the amplitude of price movements in the stock market is measured by volatility the bigger and more frequent the swings the more volatile the market fortunately some analysts believe that while volatility will stay high the situation is already improving goldman sachs analyst led by rocky fishman observe in a research report published last thursday that market volatility in july is already much lower than it has been in recent months according to the researchers volatility will remain above average but far from excessive while volatility can be frightening for investors it is a typical element of the market and should not cause you to adjust your investing plan dramatically i don't think we've reached rock bottom when the market begins to fall investors wonder how far it will go but this is practically impossible to anticipate when you see your stock portfolio drop by 20 or more investors receive a wake-up call according to thomas muos financial life advisor at telemus a financial counseling service i don't believe we've reached rock bottom he says based on what we've observed in the first half of the year the market has suffered a substantial drop of more than 10 percent his words of wisdom continue to invest on a regular basis in situations like these dollar cost averaging works always justify your investment to yourself that's something to remember when things are uncertain the market despises uncertainty the stock market in the united states anticipates and prices breaking news in real time with so much influx it's difficult for investors to keep track of what's going on day to day with additional fed meetings expected this year this equates to a tumultuous market environment that will endure for some time the market despises ambiguity linda garca creator of in lose we trust explains the current economic crisis is unlike anything we've ever seen definitely not in our lives garca adds garca advises sticking to your investment strategy and keeping your eye on the horizon because investing is a long-term game we may be down another 20 percent according to lori van dusen founder and ceo of lvw advisors in rochester new york the next six months are about preventing causing more losses in your portfolio rather than generating your own projections it's about knowing what you own vandusen reminds investors that the only way to lose money is to sell their shares we may be down another 20 percent that is possible no one knows the solution however continue to diversify and invest that is the finest council i can give you for the next six months she adds i don't think the worst is over much with how turbulent this year has been thus far we should be prepared for even more changes consumer spending is changing and the total combination of causes is unlike anything else that has come before then there's the fed finally hiking rates and the geopolitical difficulties with the ukraine war which obviously doesn't assist inflationary pressures in terms of oil gas and food supply that's all stuff we haven't fully processed yet we're going to feel some of it into 2023 says melissa buchelon certified financial planner and managing partner of soundview wealth advisors in savannah georgia there are opportunities to buy everyone wants to sell when equities are on sale people want to get in at their highest pricing says allison l nicks partner and portfolio manager at crestwood advisors in boston however if you're able to continue investing you will gain from the greater risk you are taking now and for the remainder of the year money psychology may be emotional for investors nix explains despite good values investors have been in that mentality for the first half of 2022.

02. right now there are possibilities to purchase some very amazing firms if you can afford to buy you'll be quite delighted if you continue to keep your investments how to prep yourself for 2022's second half our analysts believe that the rest of 2022 will most likely be a turbulent ride but crisis or no crash recession or no recession history teaches us this is all part of the trip volatility is normal so enjoy the ride it's difficult to forecast what will happen in the next 6 months but analysts believe that market volatility with dramatic ups and downs is to be expected also as the market shifts and flows over the next 6 months experts believe that it is better to keep on your assets and ride the wave you want to maintain your sight on the prize and avoid panicking when things go wrong purchase on sale stocks experts advise continuing the course and attempting to keep emotions at bay the worst thing you can do today is sell your investments at a loss and then reinvest when equities begin to rise now is the opportunity to buy equities at more appealing prices than they were a year ago if you can hold on and stay invested you will be considerably better off when the market returns you can't afford not to invest continue to make investments if you have a longer time horizon you should be delighted since you may acquire at reduced prices maintain a diversified portfolio portfolios that have been on the market for a long time and are diverse perform well diversification entails holding a diverse portfolio of equities from various businesses and sectors if one firm or industry suffers the other can pick up the load experts encourage investing in low-cost broad market index funds because they provide quick diversification and help to safeguard your wealth investing can help you beat inflation as the cost of living rises due to inflation it is critical to invest your money historically the stock market has seen an average annual return of ten percent every year inflation is already nearing nine percent the highest level in 40 years so by investing and diversifying your portfolio you can protect yourself against inflation