저자: MacroBeans채널진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 2022년 2분기에 보유 주식을 전량 매도했으나 GEO Group 주식은 약 50만 주(약 330만 달러) 매수했다. 그는 인플레이션이 장기화되면 주식이 폭락하고 미국 경기침체로 기업 실적이 급감할 것이라고 본다. 버리의 매도 배경은 인플레이션 지속 시 모든 자산이 위험하다는 판단이다. 다만 영상은 재고 축적에 따른 단기 디스인플레이션, 원자재·노동 부족에 따른 장기 고인플레 가능성을 근거로 든다. GEO Group 매수는 경기침체에 따른 범죄율 증가와 공화당 중간선거 승리 시 사법 정책 강화 가능성을 노린 베팅으로 해석된다. 다만 이는 포트폴리오 규모에 비해 작은 포지션이다. 영상은 GEO Group이 최근 10년간 S&P500 대비 크게 부진했고, 13F는 과거 분기 스냅샷이므로 버리가 이미 주식을 처분했을 가능성을 지적한다. 2분기 이후 주가는 약 16% 올라 약 7.70달러 수준이다. 진행자는 버리의 폭락론에 동의하지 않는다. 최근 지표(원자재 가격 하락, 에너지 가격 하락, 주택 가격 둔화, 임금 상승 둔화)는 인플레이션 둔화를 가리키며, 이에 따라 6월 중순 이후 증시가 크게 반등했다고 설명한다. 진행자는 향후 1년 내 시장이 20% 상승하고 일부 주식은 100% 이상 오를 수 있다고 전망한다. 결론적으로 버리의 폭락 논리를 경계하고 1년 내 자산 두 배 가능성이 있는 주식에 투자하라고 권한다. 영상 전반은 미국 시장 전체에 대한 낙관적 전망이며, 개별 종목으로는 GEO Group이 핵심 언급 종목이다.
다듬은 글
the 2008 financial disaster was predicted by Michael burry before anybody else and he despises the present Market rise he's frequently used Twitter to alert investors that the stock market meltdown is only just beginning he's not only exhaling hot air he genuinely thinks so in reality he sold every share of stock he had in the second quarter of 2022.
you read correctly in the second quarter of 2022 The Big Short icon Michael burry liquidated all of his stock Holdings he did however purchase one stock throughout the quarter however that appears to be more of a large wager on the U.S economy entering a severe recession than anything else for investors hoping for a fresh bull market this may be the loudest warning shot yet one of the best bear Market forecasters of all time remains unwaveringly pessimistic on this Market what does he think what stock did he really purchase in the previous quarter the most crucial question is should investors follow him let's react to such questions Michael burry is selling everything Michael burry had a sizable stock portfolio at the beginning of the second quarter of 2022 he held many additional multi-million dollar Stakes including about 19 million dollars in Booking 18 million dollars in alphabet and 18 million dollars in meta he completely unloaded all the positions in Q2 no one was untouched the action was stunning to put it mildly the actions were less shocking to bury his cryptic tweet fans though bury has been sounding in the alarm for weeks at the stock market Fall might become nasty he once likened it to the financial catastrophe of 2008.
he added that the market sell-off was still only partially complete the bury bear theory is simple at least as much as we can put it together from his tweets Michael burry thinks that while inventory building will cause a short-term disinflation ongoing labor and commodity shortages will cause higher than normal inflation in the long run additionally he thinks that the unfavorable economic effects of this High inflation would be exacerbated by the U.S government's weak policies the outcome will be a severe recession in the U.S economy bury argues that this severe recession will result in a sharp decline in corporate earnings which has not yet been included into stock prices bury predicts a stock market crash as corporate earnings decline over the following 12 months basically it sums up the bury bear Theory or at least our understanding of it based on an analysis of his consistently cryptic Tweets in essence Michael burry doesn't think inflation will slow down he believes equities are doomed as a result therefore he sold everything contrary to popular belief burry's decision to sell everything wasn't even the strangest aspect of his fund's most recent 13f filing shabby change Buri sold everything last quarter in addition to making a pretty questionable acquisition he purchased more than 500 000 shares of the privately run jail company the Geo Group Geo Group with a market worth of less than 1 billion offers Residential Treatment mental health and private penal institutions both domestically and abroad although is purchase and Geo Group surely raises questions the following is why it merits part of the web hype bury is not placing a very large wager with an alleged 6.60 cents average price for his 500 000 shares of Geo Group very reportedly has a 3.3 million dollar investment in the company crazy huh last quarter the man sold all of his 200 plus million dollars worth of stock then he invested 3.3 million dollars in a stock of a private jail What's Happening Here experts believe bury is betting everything on the idea that America is doomed although this may seem like a sizable stake to investors institutional investors or hedge funds do not view it as such for instance burry's portfolio had a first quarter 2022 worth of 165 million dollars before he sold off all his past Holdings it follows that with a three million dollar investment berries not betting all on Geo Group it argues that if bury's forecasted recession is unusually bad jobless rates will increase typically crime rates increase along with Rising unemployment rates furry's wager on Geo Group appears to be that crime would significantly increase over the course of the following year as the Amer American economy enters a deep recession The Wager could also include a political component Donald Trump a former U.S president advocated private prisons and throughout his presidency private prison spending soared in fact geostalk increased by more than double in the first two months of Trump's Administration with his acquisition of geoshares it appears that bury may be wagering on both escalating crime rates and an impending Red Wave in the year's midterm elections an overview of the bigger Market given the modest position experts think bury is less likely to be pounding the table for geogroup specifically and more likely to be expressing his opinion on the market as a whole by stealing off everything but geogroup Buri is renowned for defying Wall Street consensus so it's probable that he believes the market is overheated in the near term and chose to go to cash since optimistic sentiment has returned to the market as the main indexes have risen off of their lows for instance he just deleted a tweet he had just sent on the current NASDAQ rally and prior bear Market rallies this is not to imply that Geo Group has virtues which perhaps also contributed in some small way to luring buri's investment without getting into Politics the company's primary activity is the provision of private attention and penal facilities which will always be unappealing to certain investors a contrarian like Brewery will find this mindset to be music to his ears since going against the tide might present opportunities to buy inexpensive equities geogroup trades at only seven times projected profits for the following year which is much less than the industry average furry's choice of position can potentially constitute a directional wager Republicans are expected to take over one or both chambers of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections which might result in the reintroduction of stronger criminal justice policies according to several experts this point of view has some Merit and Geo Group May stand to gain from the situation keep in mind that Michael burry is a human a legend Michael burry he is without a doubt brilliant and an expert in financial markets and when stocks are down you should constantly pay attention to him as they have been in 2022 nevertheless he's still only a human he lacks a crystal ball to forecast how the market will develop in the coming months or years he makes predictions about the direction that equities will go using study arithmetic and reasoning just like the rest of us and his predictions of a market meltdown weren't always accurate like they were in 2008.
for instance burry predicted an impending stock market meltdown in 2017 but it never happened do investors need to follow Barry's example in the end there are a few reasons why experts don't believe investors should support bury in this decision as was already stated bury only has a minor share in the company making it of little consequence overall second a five or ten year chart reveals that Geo Group shares have significantly underperformed the S P 500 over the previous 10 years although the price of the stock may be rising temporarily it has a poor track record of generating profits for shareholders many investors would be better off sticking to investing in businesses that have generated long-term value also since 13f filings only provide a snapshot of the prior quarter it's likely that Berry no longer holds this stock now that the third quarter has been going for more than six weeks shares have increased by roughly 16 since his acquisition with a current price of around 7.70 cents given his opinion that the market is inflated it's probable that bury has already cashed in on the opportunity and earned a sizable profit on the stock according to experts investors should do this in response to the surprising news that bury sold everything last quarter accepted and then proceed bury claims that equities are doomed if inflation continues bullish as we are we wholeheartedly concur with that theory stocks bonds cryptocurrencies and every other type of financial asset are doomed if inflation continues adding to the Boom but most current data points to a considerable slowdown in inflation stock levels are increasing prices for Commodities are falling Energy prices are decreasing the cost of homes is starting to decline growth in wages is sluggish the fundamental causes of inflation are all moving in the correct direction stocks won't fall if these Tendencies continue rather they will Skyrocket experts predict what will happen exactly investors don't sell everything as bury does because of this they have been purchasing the dip instead and as a result from mid-june to mid-august their portfolios have generally increased by more than 50 percent according to analysts this rally has only just begun experts predict that markets will be 20 percent higher in a year and our stocks will increase by more than 100 percent not a continuation of a significant fall but the beginning of a significant Market rally bottom line recognize the dangers using Michael burry's doomsday argument then invest in stocks that may potentially double your money in a year in order to benefit from a future stock market boom
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