저자: RayDalio—진행자MacroBeans제외 · 외국인
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레이 달리오는 향후 2~4년간 스태그플레이션 위험과 경기침체 가능성을 경고하며, 현금은 쓰레기라고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 코로나19와 러시아의 우크라이나 침공이 겹치며 1970년대식 스태그플레이션 위험이 되살아나고 있다. 인플레이션은 기대치를 웃돌고 성장 전망은 급격히 악화되고 있다. 근거 데이터: 미국 인플레이션은 3월 8.5%를 기록했고, 1분기 경제는 크게 위축됐다. 세계은행은 올해 세계 성장률을 3.3%(1월 4.1%에서 하향), 세계 인플레이션을 6.2%(1월 대비 2.25%p 상향)로 전망했다. IMF는 143개국 전망치를 낮췄다. 한국 소비자물가는 3월 10년 만의 최고치를 기록했다. 유럽 1분기 성장률은 0.2%, 인플레이션은 7.5%로 사상 최고였다. 지역별 영향: 유럽은 러시아 가스 의존도(약 40%) 때문에 에너지 충격이 가장 크며, 독일은 성장 전망이 절반으로 깎였다. 영국은 실질소득이 1950년대 이후 최대 폭으로 줄었고 임금-물가 악순환 위험이 있다. 미국은 노동시장이 전후 최고로 뜨거워 연준이 경기 둔화 없이 인플레이션을 잡기 어렵다는 분석이 나왔다. 달리오의 큰 그림: 미국 달러는 1971년 수준까지 약세로 갈 수 있고, 중국이 달러의 기축통화 지위를 위협하고 있다. 지정학과 공급망의 불확실성 때문에 향후 2~4년간 세계 경제·정치 체제가 예상 밖으로 변할 것이다. 낙관론과의 대비: 일부 분석가와 IMF는 1970년대 같은 침체 재현에는 선을 긋는다. 현재 인플레이션은 당시보다 낮고 중앙은행은 더 독립적이며 재정 지원이 취약층을 보호하고 있다. 또 세계의 화석연료 의존도는 줄고 있어 내년에는 인플레이션이 둔화될 것이라는 전망도 있다. 리스크: 임금-물가 악순환이 형성되면 장기 고인플레이션이 현실화될 수 있다. 전쟁이 길어지거나 대러 제재가 추가되면 물가는 예상보다 더 오를 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 달리오는 현금 보유를 비판하며 주식도 인플레이션 국면에서 취약하다고 봤다. 그는 대체로 비관적 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Ray dalio has learned in his 50 years of worldwide investment that we are frequently astonished by events that have never occurred in our lives this prompted Bridgewater Associates co-chairman and co-chief investment officer to research 500 years of History revealing patterns that resurfaced decade after decade caused by economic fluctuations societal upheaval and World conflict at the 2022 World economic Forum in Davos Switzerland Ray dalio made clear that he believes that cash is trash he elaborated of course cash is still trash you know how fast you are losing buying power in cash equities are trashier dalio argues that the upcoming two to four years will witness both the global and economic political systems evolve in unanticipated ways as a result of so many unknown occurrences in geopolitics and Supply chains according to Ray dalio the US dollar is on the cusp of depreciating to levels last seen in 1971 and China is jeopardizing the greenback's place as the world's Reserve currency stagflation and economic downturn that must hurt but the prospect of a prolonged recession must hurt far more watch this video to learn more about how our economy will act in the near future the economic forecasts are gloomy only last year many analysts predicted that 2022 would be a period of robust economic recovery businesses would resume normal operations following kovid consumers would be able to spend their accrued funds on all the vacations and activities they had missed out on due to the epidemic some predicted a new Roaring Twenties referring to the decade of consumerism that followed the 1918-1921 influenza pandemic after a few months the more casually cited similarity is the 1970s when the Arab Oil Embargo contributed to a sustained period of economic misery inflation reached double digits even as economies throughout the world slowed an unpleasant combination of high prices and sluggish growth known as stagflation stagflation is once again on the cards following the double shock of covid-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine inflation rates have exceeded expectations in many countries surging to the highest levels in decades while economic growth forecasts are rapidly deteriorating the chance of stagflation returning frightens policy makers due to the lack of monetary tools to prevent it increased interest rates may assist to reduce inflation but it will further dampen growth in the meantime keeping monetary policies weak risks driving up prices thus many analysts and economists including IMF do not foresee a repeat of the 1970s a decade of economic Calamity that hurt both businesses and households inflation is still lower than it was back then central banks are more independent and fiscal assistance is protecting the neediest but similar to how the oil crisis echoed throughout the global economy in the 1970s the combination of pandemic and War has placed unexpected strain on the global supply of goods and services nowadays prices had already soared two multi-decade peaks in many regions including the United States the United Kingdom and the Eurozone as the pandemic hindered Supply chains strengthened demand for goods and consequently results in accommodative monetary policies and expansive fiscal stimuli these issues were only exacerbated by the war Russia and Ukraine produced a large portion of the world's supply of gas oil wheat fertilizers and other materials raising energy and food prices particularly in Europe according to enter tournament Gill the world bank's vice president for Equitable growth finance and institutions this is the largest commodity shock we've experienced since the 1970s in the event of a prolonged war or additional sanctions against Russia he asserts prices could be even higher than currently projected global economic growth is still anticipated to average only 3.3 percent this year down from 4.1 percent in January before the conflict Global inflation is expected to be 6.2 percent 2.25 percentage points higher than in January similarly the IMF has reduced its forecast for 143 economies this year which accounts for 86 percent of global GDP stagflation is significant because few economists agree on how to stop it once it has begun it also causes significant potentially long-term harm to businesses and middle and lower income households in economic terms growth is slowing and inflation is rising says crystalina georgieva managing director of the international monetary Fund in human terms people's incomes are declining while their hardship is increasing the global Fall Away the 2022 stagflationary shock is truly Global and wildly Divergent growth and inflation preconceptions throughout most countries and many various variables going to exacerbate the trend in a synchronized fashion as the year progresses similar patterns can be observed in country after country a surprise huge rise in prices and a downturn in activity over the last few months as expectations for the year worsen significant growth projections in Asia have been adjusted weaker than expected due to headwinds from the Ukraine conflict as well as renewed Supply disturbances and lesser demand caused by China's new lockdowns and Xi Jinping zero covet policy inflation in Asia is lower than in other regions but it is rising as a result of the global rise in food and energy prices consumer prices in South Korea for example reached a 10-year high in March the active monetary policy narrowing used to combat soaring inflation in some Latin American countries particularly Brazil has resulted in rapidly eroding economic prospects on April 27 the United Nations economic commission for Latin America and the Caribbean revised the Region's growth opportunities straight down alerting of a complex juncture of challenges related to the Ukrainian conflict despite being restricted to Europe the repercussions of the conflict are being felt globally as rising oil and food costs harm the most disadvantaged notably in Africa and the Middle East according to World Bank president David malpas ironically the economic impact of the war is being felt most acutely in Europe particularly in Nations largely reliant on Russian oil and gas the European Union as a whole is extremely vulnerable to disruptions in its energy Supply with Russia supplying 40 of the eu's gas Consumer Energy costs already Rose in March while businesses and consumer morale fell many analysts fear that an EU embargo on Russian gas would precipitate one of Germany's and the eurozone's greatest recessions and decades Russian retribution on energy exports is also a danger to the Region's economic prospects as seen by gas prom's announcement last week that it might shut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria if Moscow abruptly halts the flow of its natural gas to Germany and other EU economies Europe will find itself grappling with a new economic crisis that like the Euro crisis of 2011 to 2012 or the covet crisis of 2020 could again pose an existential threat to the single currency survival States Tom Holland at gevical research even without the gas strikes Eurozone economy dropped to 0.2 percent in the first quarter while inflation reached a record high of 7.5 percent according to Andrew Cunningham Chief Europe Economist at Capital economics this will be a year of stagflation in the Eurozone Rising Energy prices will keep inflation High squeezing consumer earnings and undermining corporate confidence Germany with its energy-intensive huge industrial sector an export-oriented economy is one of the hardest impacted over the last six months experts have cut their 2022 economic growth projection for Germany in half while inflationary pressures have tripled outside the EU the UK economy is facing comparable energy price pressures and slowing growth this year after the greatest decrease in real income since records began in 1950s nevertheless in the United Kingdom High import costs are combined with a tight labor market raising the risk of persistently High inflation the UK unemployment rate is at its lowest since the early 1970s and job openings are at an all-time high threatening a wage price spiral in which increasing pay demands Drive prices even higher this combination of Supply shocks and a tight labor market tends to give us more of a problem of persistent inflation Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the financial times earlier this month however the United States stands by far the greatest risk of dramatic inflation and wage price spirals according to Anatoly koletsky Economist at the investment research firm gavikal inflation reached 8.5 percent in March and investors expected to grow even further the economy shrank significantly in the first quarter defying forecasts yet the U.S labor market is the hottest in post-war history with almost 5 million more job postings than unemployed workers according to Goldman Sachs Economist Dan striven according to a recent analysis by former treasury secretary Larry Summers the overheated state of the labor market suggests a very low possibility that the Federal Reserve can cut inflation without creating a considerable slowdown in economic growth rewinding the clock the question now is how long this tankflationary shock will persist and whether a long 1970s style downturn is still possible persistently High inflation drove up by employment rates in many Rich Nations erasing the post-war boom ears while today's rapid rises in commodity prices resemble those seen in the 1970s there are significant distinctions many analysts predict inflation to drop next year stressing out that the world's dependence on fossil fuels is decreasing households may now utilize their financial savings to lessen the sting of increasing energy expenses many economies especially affluent ones have implemented steps to protect the most disadvantaged populations from the impact of rising prices such as subsidizing gasoline and energy bills other Tendencies though are a cause of concern for both growth and inflation contributing to a highly uncertain prognosis while oil price rise has been less than in the past the increase in gas prices has been rapid causing March's annual growth in German producer prices to be the fastest since records began in 1949 and more than double the rate of the 1970s although salaries are no longer inflation indexed as they were in the 1970s historically tight labor markets in the United States and Europe enhance the possibility of inflation becoming more entrenched in the economy whatever happens to commodity and goods prices in the short term The crucial issue stays that rampant inflation on the sustained scale experience in the 1970s is only likely to be observed if wage price spirals form says Vicky Redwood Economist at Capital economics
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