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마이클 배리의 2021년 전후 시장 예측 10가지를 정리한 해설 영상이다. 결론: 그의 예측 다수가 빗나갔으며 특히 암호화폐·밈주식·테슬라 관련 발언이 대표적 오판으로 언급된다. [배리 주요 예측과 결과] 1) 2021년 3월 SPAC 상장 기업 품질이 낮다고 주장. 이후에도 SPAC을 통한 대형 IPO가 이어졌다고 평가. 2) 2021년 2월 로빈후드를 주식 게임화(gamification) 플랫폼으로 비판. 로빈후드는 기업가치 400억 달러 규모로 상장 추진. 3) 2021년 2월 인플레이션 대비를 촉구하며 비트코인·금이 위험하다고 주장. 중국의 암호화폐 단속으로 일부만 적중. 4) 2021년 1월 게임스탑 숏스퀴즈는 1회성이라 재현되지 않는다고 주장. AMC 급등으로 빗나감. 5) 2021년 6월 투기 시장이 역대 최악의 붕괴로 이어질 것이라 예측. 한 달 넘게 시장은 사상 최고 수익을 기록. 6) 2021년 3월 비트코인은 투기 버블이며 지속 불가능하다고 주장. 이후 약 6만 4천 달러 신고점을 기록. 7) 2021년 2월 패시브 투자·옵션 거래로 시장이 붕괴 직전이라고 경고. 붕괴는 없었고 강세장 지속. 8) 2021년 1월 테슬라 랠리를 인터넷·주택 버블에 비유하며 하락 예측. 테슬라는 상승을 이어가 머스크를 세계 최고 부자로 만듦. 9) 2020년 12월 테슬라 공매도 및 주식 발행 권고. 테슬라는 4월 이전까지 상승 지속, 이후 전기차 매도세로 조정. 2분기 인도량 20만 1,250대로 기대치 근접. 10) 2019년 9월 인덱스펀드 유입이 CDO와 유사한 버블을 만든다고 경고. 지난 2년간 인덱스펀드 수익률이 기록적이었으므로 빗나간 것으로 평가. [언급 종목과 방향] 알파벳·페이스북(메타)·크래프트하인즈·넷앱·CBS·코어시빅·잉걸스마켓 등을 배리 포트폴리오 보유 종목으로 소개. 테슬라는 하락 베팅(공매도), 비트코인·금은 리스크 대상으로 언급. [조건과 리스크] 인플레이션 우려, 암호화폐 규제, 공매도 및 밈주식 과열 등이 주요 리스크로 제시됨. [출연자 전망] 영상 내 배리의 장기적 약세 전망은 대체로 반복적이나, 단기 예측은 대부분 빗나간 것으로 정리됨.
다듬은 글
in the world of Finance Michael burry the investor who correctly foresaw the 2008 stock market Fall and won billions by betting against subprime mortgages during the financial crisis is something of a legend he's the CEO of the california-based hedge fund Scion Asset Management which oversees more than 1.3 billion dollars in assets bury has regularly alerted investors to the threat of an impending financial disaster over the past three years while the market has gone on a bull run supported by astounding figures reported by technology companies bury is one of the world's top money managers with a personal net worth of more than 300 million dollars but it appears that his fixation with Market disasters has plunged him into a pit from which he cannot Escape he has repeatedly predicted things that have turned out to be wrong in recent years including Market collapses cryptocurrencies retail investors and meme stocks this has severely damaged his reputation bury even removed his Twitter account maybe feeling discouraged by his recent performance the investor disabled his account after receiving feed feedback from online users who took issue with this pessimistic view of the economy bury continues to interact with mainstream media primarily through email interviews although the number of people who share his vision has decreased recently alphabetting Facebook Inc and the craft Heinz company are a few of the top equities in his portfolio one of the very few investors that have achieved immortality through Hollywood is bury his 2008 financial crisis forecast and the money he gained as a result were the subject of the movie The Big Short with technology stocks controlling the S P 500 and investors like bury who prefer to mitigate unneeded risk while also making money by wagering on value plays being nudged to the edge as retail investors come to the fore in the finance industry the market dynamics have changed significantly in the 10 years since the crisis does Michael burry consistently anticipate crashes and just happen to be lucky when one occurs or does his prediction come true the majority of the time in this video we will talk about 10 market crash forecasts made by Michael burry keeping this background in mind although bury removes some of the forecast from his Twitter account after he made them the news outlets that reported on them at the time have kept track of them number one companies that launched through s-pacs are of low quality posted on Twitter March 20 2021 in March 2021 bury tweeted that despite the fact that s packs were more popular than ever in the financial industry the firms that went public through them had not undergone thorough due diligence he also said that regardless of the caliber of the company going public anyone could form an S pack and become wealthy from it despite this Gloomy forecast s packs have continued to organize some of the biggest IPOs this year and many have contracts with profitable companies in growing Industries for the upcoming months as well bury owns a sizable portion of california-based technology company alphabetting bury owned call options worth more than 165 million dollars on 80 000 alphabet Inc shares at the end of March with 2.9 Million shares valued at more than 6 billion dollars london-based Investment Company TCI fund management is the largest stakeholder in alphabet Inc among the hedge funds that Insider monkey is monitoring asset management company Artisan Partners highlighted a few equities in its q1 2021 investor letter alphabet Inc being one of them number two Robin Hood promotes stock gamification posted on Twitter February 20 2021 over the past several months Robinhood a trading app has seen a spectacular increase in users as interest among retail investors and equities has grown however Brewery moved to Twitter to express his opinion on the program just as meme stocks were starting to get attention at the beginning of this year claiming that he thought it had gamified stocks and likened it to a family-friendly casino with a 40 billion dollar valuation Robinhood intends to go public shortly despite this Gloomy Outlook Facebook Inc the digital company that controls well-known social media sites like Instagram and WhatsApp is one of the top Holdings in the bury portfolio the Scion CEO owned call options worth 161 million dollars on 550 000 shares of Facebook Inc at the end of the month number three be prepared for inflation the risk to bitcoin and gold posted on Twitter February 20 2021 Murray was there to ruin the party once more just as the vaccination deployment enabled a partial reopening of the economy and encouraged investors in February he tweeted that investors should get ready for inflation since it would put Hedges like Bitcoin and gold at danger he also made the suggestion that Bitcoin may be in danger by stating that governments will take action to eliminate rivals in the currency space in the event of inflation this forecast was only partially accurate despite beijing's Crackdown on cryptocurrencies in China which caused a sharp decline in the value of cryptocurrencies there have been some encouraging developments in the world of cryptocurrencies like El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal cash even if Market concerns about inflation are still there Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell assured legislators on June 23 that issues including increased demand for goods and supply chain issues will be resolved quickly and relieve pressures associated with inflation bury owns a sizable portion of the chicago-based food firm the Kraft Heinz company bury possessed call options Worth close to 47 million dollars on more than 1.1 million shares of the Kraft Heinz company at the end of the first quarter of 2021 one of the largest shareholders in the craft Heinz company is the nebraska-based Investment Company Berkshire Hathaway which has 325 million shares valued at more than 13 billion dollars asset management company Berkshire Hathaway featured some few stocks in its investor letter for the fourth quarter of 2020.
and the Kraft Heinz company was one of them number four GameStop is the only ideal configuration that can exist posted on Twitter January 20 2021 bury also offered his opinion on the GameStop Corp surge in January once more utilizing his preferred social media platform Twitter to express his Market views bury anticipated that the short squeeze at GameStop Corp saw in late January was ideal and that a rise similar to it would not occur again the AMC entertainment Holdings Inc NYSE AMC stock surge that month however demonstrated burrie's error the short squeeze on GameStop Corp was one of burry's ideas where he has made significant investments in Rhode island-based CBS Health Corporation NYSE CBS on 400 000 shares of CBS Health Corporation Murray owns call options worth more than 30 million dollars by the end of the first quarter of 2021 62 headphones in The Insider monkey database had positions in CBS Health Corporation totaling 1.3 billion dollars up from 56 at the end of the previous quarter with interest worth 961 million dollars number five just before mother of all crashes hype attracts retail investors posted on Twitter June 20 2021 Murray made a market crash prediction on Twitter last month right before he canceled his account on June 17 he said in a tweet that regular investors were being pulled into a speculative Market that will eventually result in the worst collapse ever he continued by saying that losses would be comparable to the size of Nations when cryptocurrency prices collapsed by trillions or meme stocks plunged by tens of billions even though it had been more than four weeks since he made this prediction the market is still providing investors with record gains thus this crash has yet to occur the cloud services and data management business NetApp Inc is a key investment in the brewery portfolio at the close of March Brewery owned call options were 21 million dollars on 300 000 shares of NetApp Inc one of the largest shareholders in NetApp Inc among the hedge funds monitored by Insider monkey is new york-based investment company Renaissance Technologies which has 1 million shares worth more than 75 million dollars number six Bitcoin is a risky speculative bubble Murray continued to build on his mistakes by attacking Bitcoin the most well-known cryptocurrency in the world the following month he tweeted in March that Bitcoin was a speculative bubble that offered more danger than opportunity despite the majority of supporters having valid points about why it was important at this particular time in history additionally he said that the coin's present price was unsustainable the coin Rose to a record high of almost sixty four thousand dollars in the next weeks before taking a break at the end of April thus this forecast did not come true either the nashville-based company core Civic Inc which owns and manages private prisons is one of the largest assets in the brewery portfolio at the end of March Brewery had more than 1.1 million shares in core Civic Inc valued at 9.9 million dollars number seven speculation and gambling have brought the market on the verge of collapse posted on Twitter February 20 2021 Buri used Twitter once more in February 2021 to warn his followers that he feared the market was on the verge of collapsing he claimed that passive investing the surge in the trade of bull options and speculative stock bubbles had brought the market to a knife's edge to emphasize his point Murray used the example of of skyrocketing debt this forecast did not materialize though and the market maintained its post-pandemic bull run without seeing anything approximating a meltdown during the ensuing few months but Ray remains optimistic about the North carolina-based Regional supermarket chain Ingalls markets Inc though Murray held 150 shares of Ingo markets Inc for 9.2 million dollars at the end of the first quarter of 2021.
number eight Tesla inc's recent rally is comparable to previous internet and housing bubbles posted on Twitter January 20 2021 Marie attempted again in January 2021 when his original forecast for Tesla Inc did not come true this time he used Twitter to inform his followers that the stock will decline similarly to previous housing and internet booms while he had the chance he also told Tesla Inc supporters to enjoy the bubble while it lasted the automaker kept rising and soon made Elon Musk the richest man in the world humiliating bury for the second time over his Tesla Inc prediction on July 13 financial advisor Goldman Sachs kept its bury rating and 860 dollar price objective on the shares Murray is shorting Tesla and purchasing Canadian biopharmaceutical company zymorks Inc bury had 281 018 shares of zymorks Inc valued at around 8.8 million dollars as of the end of March number nine distribute 25 to 50 of Tesla shares at the Absurd price posted on Twitter as of December 2020 at the beginning of the year Tesla Inc was experiencing a historic surge but bury dashed the aspirations of investors who wanted to see the stock soar much higher he advised musk to issue shares to finance debt and post it on the social media site Twitter that he was shorting the company and thought the Electric Vehicle Manufacturer was overpriced despite the pessimistic Brewery forecast Tesla Inc kept on advancing increasing its gain from 526 to over 700 at one point before taking a break in April the stock has experienced a decline in recent weeks due to a significant sell-off in stocks related to electric vehicles however the company's core operations continue to produce the company reported two hundred one thousand two hundred and fifty car deliveries for the second quarter in June barely shy of Market expectations of approximately 230 000 deliveries but exceeding The crucial 200 000 Milestone the texas-based oil drilling company Now Inc is one of the investors top Holdings furry held 700 000 shares of knowing for seven million dollars at the end of the first quarter of 2021.
number 10. index funds resemble subprime cdos said during a Bloomberg interview from September 2019 in an interview with the news Outlet Bloomberg in September 2019 where he said that Index Fund inflows were affecting stock and bond prices in a manner similar to how CDO purchases had affected subprime mortgage pricing more than 10 years earlier the investor predicted that when the flows reversed it would be unpleasant because he had made billions speculating against cdos during the 2008 financial crisis bury has been proven wrong though since index funds have reduced record returns over the previous two years the illinois-based raw material processing business suncoke energy Inc NYSE sxc is one of the largest Assets in the brewery portfolio Berry had more than 1.1 million shares of suncoke energy Inc valued at more than 7.7 million dollars at the end of March
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