저자: JamieDimon관련해설영상,출연자미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 2022년 경기침체가 과거와 달리 신용 붕괴가 아닌 유동성 과잉 주도형이라 상대적으로 덜 고통스러울 수 있다고 주장하며, 현재는 침체 초입이 아니라 경기가 여전히 견조하다고 본다. 제이미 다이먼 발언 소개: 다이먼은 JP모건의 실적 호조로 주가가 6.2% 오르고 S&P500이 1.9% 오른 뒤 경기에 대해 '강한 경제, 큰 먹구름'이라고 평가했다. 먹구름은 흩어질 수 있다고 봤다. 침체 성격 비교: 2007~2008 금융위기와 2000~2001 닷컴 붕괴는 부채 주도형이었으나, 이번 침체는 코로나 기간 재정·통화 부양에 따른 과잉 유동성이 촉발할 가능성이 높다고 본다. 이 경우 부채 조정보다 회복이 빠를 수 있다는 논리다. 경기 지표 근거: 자동차·주택 산업이 견조하고 재고는 낮으며, 반도체 부족으로 주택 가격이 높게 유지된다. 산업 수주잔고가 생산을 떠받칠 수 있고 기업 설비투자 동인도 견고하다고 평가한다. 고용 시장: 실업률 3.6%로 매우 타이트하며 구인 대비 구직자 비율이 사상 최고 수준이다. 기업은 해고보다 먼저 채용 공고를 줄일 것으로 예상된다. 재무 건전성: 가계·기업·금융권의 대차대조표가 수십 년 만에 가장 건전하다고 평가한다. 수요 지표: 2022년 1분기 GDP 성장률은 연율 1.4%였고, 소비지출은 2.7%, 기업투자는 9.2% 증가했다. 4월 소매·외식 지출은 사상 최대치를 기록했다. 전문가 인터뷰: 채용 전문가는 구직 시장이 여전히 구직자에게 유리하다고 보고, 여행·레저 고용은 높게 유지될 것이나 제조·건설 고용은 금리 인상에 민감할 것이라고 봤다. 파월 의장은 노동시장이 지속 불가능할 정도로 뜨겁다고 평가하며 인플레이션 억제를 위해 고통이 따를 수 있다고 언급했다. 챌린저 그레이앤크리스마스의 앤디 챌린저는 감원이 일부 산업에 국한돼 있다고 봤다. 침체 시기 전망: 다수 추정치는 2023년 침체를 가리키며, 소비 패턴이 서서히 바뀌어 지연된다고 본다. 연준의 공격적 금리 인상이 경기 둔화를 촉발할 수 있다는 우려도 제기된다. 투자자 조언: 인내심을 갖고 세금 효율적 리밸런싱을 고려하며, 자산군 분산을 극대화하라고 권한다.
다듬은 글
according to jamie dimon chief executive of jp morgan the storm clouds over the economy can clear do not however become over excited he still believes that we're in uncharted ground even the tiniest glimmer of optimism may inspire investors in a market full of dread and gloom this was well shown by jp morgan ceo jamie dimon when the bank's better than anticipated financial outlook pushed the stock up 6.2 percent and the s p 500 up 1.9 percent he summarized his opinion by saying strong economy big storm clouds according to diamond i'm calling it storm clouds because they're storm clouds they may dissipate if it was a hurricane i would tell you that or a tsunami like we had in oh seven or oh eight hold on in this video we will take you through why a 2022 recession would be particularly special credit driven recession versus inflation-driven downturns the great financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the dot-com collapse of 2000 2001 are two recent recessions that were credit driven in addition to the pandemic caused recession of 2020 in both instances excesses caused by debt accumulated in the housing and internet systems and it ended up taking the economy over 10 years to digest them on the other hand today's recession is more prone to be sparked by excess liquidity rather than debt in this instance extremely high levels of fiscal monetary stimulus associated to covid pushed money into consumers and investment sectors causing inflation and fueling financial asset speculation the route is stronger in addition to historical patterns a number of economic indicators suggest that should a recession occur it will be less painful the car and housing sectors are both robust while inventories are low and likely to drop much lower with increasing borrowing rates housing prices have been high and resistant due to the scarcity of semiconductors manufacturing rates for automobiles are lower than at earlier peaks order backlogs may maintain industrial activity unusually high for a recession while supply networks clear the labor market is still active in addition to being tight as measured by rates of unemployment the labor market is also displaying record-high ratios of fresh job vacancies to prospective employees this shows that businesses would decide to lower their open job advertising first possibly postponing the impact on unemployment rather than firing existing employees households businesses and the financial sector all have their balance sheets in the healthiest condition in decades furthermore considering current demands for energy infrastructure automation and national security that are not primarily related to the business cycle or the fed's activities drivers for corporate capital investment remain robust corporate income could be more reliable as more businesses develop subscription and fee based business models the profit share attributable to recurring revenue sources is increasing as shown in the composition of the stock index nowadays in essence experts are optimistic about the fundamentals of the economy and think they can act as a stabilizing force in the wake of a downturn investors should exercise patients and think about adopting tax efficient rebalancing to offset their principal overweight and underweight positions as well as by recovering their losses an aim for the greatest possible asset class diversity so does this mean there won't be a recession that's the big question 2022 the core symptoms of a recession have not yet materialized recessions are defined as a considerable decrease in economic activity that is distributed across the economy and should last more than just few months according to the national bureau of economic research even though the duration of the coronavirus catastrophe from peak to trough was very brief the extent and breadth of the decrease were sufficient to satisfy the mber's requirements by that measure it's improbable that the us economy is presently experiencing a recession economic production did increase throughout the first three months of 2022 at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent but that was nothing compared to the 31.2 percent fall that occurred through the second quarter of 2020 the main causes of the downturn aside from the general slowdown in domestic economic activity were also slowdowns in net exporting and inventory accumulation higher imports during a period when americans are spending a ton of money were a major contributor to the decline in trade yet as firm's hoarding spiked greater in the previous quarter the drop in inventory was more of a return to the regular pattern the economy probably would have had some other quarter of fantastic growth if those two things hadn't had an impact on overall gdp consumer spending which accounts for almost two thirds of gdp increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent while corporate investments surged at 9.2 percent rate indicating that businesses continue to expect bright futures more good news the irresistible drive to recruit persists according to andrew flowers a labor economist at appcast and research director at recruitanomics it is still a market job for job seekers and that companies have an insatiable appetite to hire according to him as of june employers intentions to hire until the end of the year have not slowed down according to appcast a company that assists companies with recruitment efforts according to the data from the bureau of labor statistics there are currently 61 more openings than there were before covid flowers anticipates that despite recent increases in inflation demand for leisure and hospitality employment will stay high as long as folks seek to buy attend events cruise and eat out at restaurants however other occupations such as those in manufacturing and construction may be particularly susceptible to the increase in interest rates and see a decline in job opportunities flowers advises those who are now aware of possibilities in their area to strike while the iron is hot labor market is unsustainably hot as per fed chair jerome powell it is an economy where the rate of unemployment is at 3.6 which is extremely near its pre-pandemic low wages have been increasing rapidly powell stated in response to inquiries at a press conference a few weeks ago that there were practically two job openings for each individual who is genuinely searching employment and that this has caused a genuine mismatch in salary negotiations the fed chair is mindful of the suffering that will be endured by more individuals as he struggles to control inflation the fed doesn't intend to make people unemployed he declared however the fed also believes that price stability is essential for having the type of labor market desired according to andy challenger senior vice president at challenger gray and christmas a business that keeps tag on layoffs countrywide the job cutbacks so far have largely been confined to a few industries we haven't yet noticed a significant number of cutbacks he claims but a few industries that appear to us to be possible bellwethers for the rest of the economy if things dramatically slow down in the upcoming weeks and months are experiencing their sharp surges and layoffs the revival of the economy is indeed unfolding a number of signs that the economy is still expanding at a strong rate are ignored if one holds that the economy is now in a recession the most carefully studied indicators show that the recovery is still going strong one aspect that is still almost twice as strong as the pre-pandemic trend is job creation until may the u.s increased non-farm payrolls by 390 thousand exceeding experts predictions and putting the nation on course to make up all of the lost payoffs by the end of the summer the fact that unemployed filings are still close to their pre-pandemic lows amid some layoffs at prominent tech businesses suggest that employers aren't mass firing employees to save expenses despite the abnormally high level of inflation americans have continued to provide gasoline to the economy in april consumers spent a record of 677.7 dollars at stores and restaurants defying predictions that rising costs would eventually start putting pressure on demand if you are a job seeker then you should be more cautious here's why others cautioned the current climate of unpredictability should serve as a lesson to be careful when shifting jobs and to make absolutely sure you have such a suitable one ready and waiting for you before you do so the coolest thing you can do in order to make the trade without a span of unemployment in the words of stephanie aronson vice president and head of the economic studies program at the brookings institution to engage in some on-the-job hunting your chances of landing a new job are still fairly good and accomplishing that may still be preferable according to adp statistics salaries for job holders increased by six percent in the first quarter of 2022 while they increased by 8.7 percent for job switchers considering the anecdotes of hiring managers competing for talent in the past year aronson says that the job searchers should be ready to put up the work in interviews it won't be enough to pop up and be willing to work she warns if recruiting starts to cool there will be greater competition because businesses will be recruiting a lot fewer individuals so you'll need to concentrate on improving your candidacy according to estimates the next recession will start in 2023.
even though the economy is now performing well a recession might yet be approaching a few experts predict the slowdown soon claiming that the federal reserve's relentless rate hikes would be growing to a complete stop even yet the majority of estimates point to 2023 as the year to be concerned the delay is a result of how slowly americans change their buying patterns even during the pandemic demand for commodities increased as lockdowns reduced expenditure on in-person services this caused goods expenditure to rise well above the pre-crisis average where it is still at now
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