저자: NewMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리가 2분기 13F에서 1분기 보유 종목을 거의 전부 정리했지만, 13F는 분기말 스냅샷에 불과해 단기 매매 신호로 따라 하기엔 부적합하다는 영상. 버리의 트위터 발언: 2022년 여름 S&P500이 6월 저점 대비 약 17% 반등했음에도 버리는 이를 단기 약세장 반등으로 규정하고, 닷컴 버블 붕괴기 반등 패턴과 비교했다. 나스닥 20% 반등을 강세장으로 보는 시각을 조롱하며 2000~2002년 사례를 근거로 들었다. 버리의 시장 전망: 나스닥은 2000~2002년처럼 78% 하락 저점까지 간다고 보았고, 2002년 저점(WorldCom 이후) 이전에 추가 하락이 있다는 입장이다. 과거 2001년 5월 바닥 발언 기사 등을 인용해 낙관 전망의 위험성을 강조했다. 13F 포트폴리오 변화: 1분기 말 구글, 메타, 스텔란티스, 부킹, 워너브라더스디스커버리, BMS 등 11개 종목과 애플 풋옵션을 보유했으나 2분기 말에는 대부분 청산하고 GEO그룹만 소량 신규 편입했다. 이는 그의 약세 전망과 일치하는 현금 확보로 해석된다. 투자자 시사점: 13F는 분기말 시점 정보라 분기 중 매매가 드러나지 않고, 버리 포트폴리오는 장기 일관성이 없어 추종 가치가 낮다. 1분기 13F 공개 후 메타를 따라 샀다면 약 12.5% 손실이 났을 것이라는 예시를 들었다. 워런 버핏의 13F는 일관성이 있어 참고 가치가 높다고 비교했다. 버리 성향 및 종목 평가: 버리는 가치 지향이지만 비전통적 베팅을 하며, GEO그룹은 부채비율 213%, ROE·ROA 낮음, 이익 감소 등 전통적 장기 가치투자 기준에서 우려가 있다. 다만 부채 재조정과 교도소 매각, 현금흐름 대비 약 5배 수준 등의 긍정 요소도 언급했다. 진행자는 버리를 트위터 논평은 재미있게 보지만 13F는 깊이 따르지 않는다고 밝혔다. 리스크: 버리의 약세 예측과 현금 전환이 실제 하락으로 이어질지 불확실하며, 13F 기반 추종 매매 자체가 위험하다는 점이 핵심 경고다.
다듬은 글
over the past few months michael bury has been one of the most talked about investors and it's fair enough too the guy is certainly not afraid to share his thoughts and opinions on the state of the economy on his twitter page interestingly titled cassandra a trojan priestess that uttered only true prophecies but was never believed hmm anyway it's fair to say the news out of michael bury's mouth recently hasn't really had the most optimistic sentiment you've ever heard over the past few months he's repeatedly hinted at a monster stock market crash and believes we're really not even in the thick of it yet but what's even more interesting than his tweets is the fact that michael barry being an investor with over 100 million in assets under management has to file a 13f filing every quarter revealing what he's been doing with his own portfolio and as you might have already seen his most recent 13f filed a few weeks ago has definitely caught the eye of the investing world so in this video let's talk about exactly what michael barry's been saying on twitter over the past two weeks and then let's look into his 13th f filing to see what we can take from it so we all know the story up to this point michael bury the perma-bear tweeting about how he was right about inflation how the market was destined to fall off a cliff thanks to the fed's mismanagement and how it's going to get a lot worse than anyone was ever expecting but over the past few months the market is up by quite a bit at the time of recording the s p 500 is up around 17 from its low in june for a lot of doomsday prognosticators this would normally cause them to go back into hibernation but we're seeing none of that from barry in fact he is doubling down on his prediction that the stock market is going to get a hell of a lot worse repeatedly calling the current market performance a short-term bear market rally have a look at this on the 22nd of july he noted the similarity and bounces during the tech bubble crash and right now on the 11th of august he tweeted a nasdaq bull market because it's up 20 off it's low who makes this stuff up after 2000 the nasdaq did that seven times as it fell 78 to its 2002 low and he added to that argument on the 15th of august saying quote the s p 500 completed a 22 two month rally and the nasdaq a 43 rally the s p would fall another 42 and the nasdaq another 48 by the bottom post worldcom in late 2002.
and also have a look at the news clipping he attached to that tweet this is back on the 22nd of may 2001 about a third of the way to the bottom of that crash they feel the bottom is in place said brian g belsky investors in general know they have to be aggressive to try and buy back tech stocks in particular ahead of the positive news or how about this one it's just a classic case of anticipating events out into the future said larry watchtool a market strategist at prudential securities well those guys certainly got their pants pulled down but it is pretty interesting comparing that sentiment to today because a lot of the news articles i'm reading at the moment are hinting that the worst is over and we're just back to a bull market so clearly michael bury doesn't think so and interestingly his latest 13f filing backs up his words and for those wondering what the heck is a 13f filing it's simply a filing made by big name money managers 45 days after the end of a quarter and it shows us their stock portfolio at the close of that aforementioned quarter so all the big names like warren buffett and charlie munger bill ackman monash proprietor guy spear they all file one and obviously for the purposes of this video so does michael barry and guess what in q2 michael barry's 13 f showed he sold out of literally every single position that he held at the end of q1 at the end of q1 he held 11 stocks including big names like google meta stalantis booking holdings warner brothers discovery bristol myers squibb among others he even held a put option position against apple but by the end of q2 literally every single one of those positions was cut and now just a very small new investment in geo group replaced them there's your headline michael bury just sold everything doom fear run for your lives but to be honest this does fit perfectly with what he's been saying about the stock market and the economy over the past three months he's been saying he thinks the market is heading south so if he genuinely believes that then it does make sense that he's liquidated his investments and gone back to cash so his actions do align with his words which is more than can be said for a lot of the names out there but what does this mean for us everyday investors this is something i really want to explore in this video so i've seen a lot of people recently saying they too are selling down their portfolios because of michael barry look at some of these headlines michael bury is selling everything should you michael bury makes a shocking decision big short investor michael barry dumps entire portfolio it's understandable why a lot of people get caught up in the fear and look to sell there's even a twitter account gaining popularity at the moment called michael bury stock tracker with 44 and a half thousand followers promoting the idea of simply copying the trades that michael bury makes honestly i really don't like to see that stuff because here's the thing with barry's 13 f filings as an investor unfortunately you really can't take much out of them as he has proven time and time again that despite being value-minded yes he's not always focused on the long-term heck he's not even focused on the medium term his positions are pretty much always focused on the short term and the only time 13 f's are ever useful to investors is when you know the super investor in question is investing with a long term mindset why well remember the 13f filing just shows us a portfolio snapshot at a certain period of time you know close of business on the 31st of march or on the 30th of june if you're following the 13f of someone like michael burry the portfolio might change like eight different times between those dates thus the information you do get as a long-term investor could very well be full of false signals for all we know barry might have bought those apple put options on the 31st of march and then sold them on the 1st of april i mean despite getting the 13f filing only recently there's actually a decent chance that michael bury doesn't even hold geo group anymore it's unfortunate but it is the truth the 13f information from people like michael barry actually means very little in the grand scheme of things and should definitely not be acted on just consider this if you followed michael bury into say meta on the 16th of may when his q1139f filing was released to the public you'd probably be a little bit worried now since that time a meta has fallen 12.5 percent that is at the time of this recording and now on top of that paper loss b you've got the news that your mate barry has now bounced out of the stock just as quickly as he got into it what are you going to do do you stay true to the copycat approach and take the 12 and a half percent l in three months or do you hold the stock and just hope for the best this is exactly why when you're looking into the 13f filings of someone like michael bury you have to read them with a grain of salt but don't get me wrong generally speaking 13f filings are still fantastic bits of information to have particularly as i say if you follow the value-minded long-term investors like say warren buffett in these instances changes in the 13f filings are very interesting indeed and reason being it's likely that that information will still be perfectly valid by the time it gets to you and for many years out into the future i mean have a look at the history of warren buffett's portfolio via his 13 f filings look at his top ten stocks as you can see there is consistency in his holdings over three five ten years very little changes over time and when something does change the changes normally stick now contrast buffett's 13 f history with michael burries and you can see there is absolutely no pattern at all to his portfolio going all the way back to q4 2018 thus there's very little that we as investors can take out of the data but beyond the short-term nature of his investing the other reason i hesitate to use any of michael bury's 13f data is also because michael barry himself is a bit of a loose cannon and can drift from the traditional tried and true buffett style investing method that we all follow now don't get me wrong he is very analytical and still very value-minded but he also makes bets where others simply wouldn't for example the one stock he did buy in q2 was geo group a private prison operator but if we turn over to simply wall street there are certainly some notable issues for a traditional long-term value investor looking at their past performance their revenue doesn't do much their earnings have declined their roe roa and roc e are all low their debts are high debt to equity is 213 now i'm not trying to pass judgment on this stock simply by you know quoting a few figures as i understand they're also doing things like restructuring debts and they're selling some of their prisons for quite handsome sums and let's not forget it also trades at like five times free cash flow but it still does show you that barry ain't afraid to go where i'm sure a lot of other value investors wouldn't typically tread so while i find the guy very entertaining on twitter in regards to his commentary on markets he's actually not an investor that i closely follow at 13 f time and in all honesty in another three months from now i would not be surprised if his reported portfolio is once again completely different to the one we see now that's just how he goes about his investing but with that said definitely let me know your thoughts and opinions down in the comments section below i also wanted to give a massive shout out to simply wall street for supporting the channel with their sponsorship it's a great platform 100 free to use however if you did want to get the premium access all areas subscription like what i was using to make this video you can get a 30 discount by following the link in the description but apart from that guys thank you very much for watching of course leave a like on the video if you did enjoy it if you want to see more of these videos then be sure to subscribe and that will just about do us for this video guys thank you very much for watching and i'll see you guys in the next video
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