저자: NewMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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버핏의 2022년 2분기 13F 보고서를 분석한 영상으로, 버크셔해서웨이의 현금 보유와 주식 포트폴리오 변화를 중심으로 설명한다. 결론: 버핏은 석유 기업(옥시덴탈, 셰브론)을 적극 매수했지만, 유가 상승 베팅이라기보다 주주환원 정책과 저평가 가치에 주목한 것으로 해석된다. 현금 보유: 2021년 말 1438억 달러에서 1분기 1027억 달러로 줄었고, 2분기 말에도 1013억 달러로 유지되어 자산의 약 1/3이 현금이다. 포트폴리오 전반: 셰브론, 옥시덴탈, 액티비전 블리자드, 파라마운트 등을 추가 매수했고, 미국 뱅코프는 축소했다. 신규 매수 종목은 없었으며, 로열티파마와 버라이즌은 전량 매도했다. 액티비전 블리자드: 마이크로소프트 인수가 69billion달러(주당 95달러)로 발표됐으나 주가는 약 80달러대에 머물러 약 20달러의 스프레드가 존재한다. 버핏은 인수 성사에 따른 단기 차익을 노린 것으로 보인다. 옥시덴탈 페트롤리엄: 2분기에 주당 55~56달러대에 추가 매수했고, 3분기 8월 기준 보유 주식이 1억 5800만 주에서 1억 8800만 주로 늘었다. 우선주 100억 달러와 워런트 8390만 주도 보유 중이다. 셰브론: 보유 비중이 전년 0.8%에서 7.8%로 확대되어 애플 초기 투자액과 비슷한 규모가 됐다. 버핏 인용: 유가 예측에 베팅하는 것이 아니라 가치 있는 주식을 산다는 입장이며, 옥시덴탈 CEO의 주주환원 전략을 높이 평가했다. 밸류에이션: 두 석유 기업 모두 PER이 낮고 심플리월스트리트 DCF 분석상 저평가 상태로 제시됐다. 애플: 2분기 주가 하락 시 추가 매수했으며, 버핏의 적정가치 판단 구간은 130~150달러대로 추정된다. 리스크: 유가 변동성에 따른 석유 기업 실적 의존도가 높다는 점이 지적된다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 버핏의 석유주 매수를 '스마트한 움직임일 수 있다'는 시각으로 보며 시청자 의견을 구한다.
다듬은 글
well as of the time of recording we've now ticked 45 days past the end of q2 and that means the 13 filings are out so these are regulatory filings that portfolio managers with at least 100 million in assets under management must submit to the sec every quarter and what it does is it discloses their equity portfolios so aka their stock picks become public knowledge obviously this is an incredible bonus for us everyday investors because we get to see what the smart money is buying and selling so today starting off 13 f season we're going to look at the smartest of the smart money mr warren buffett the oracle of omaha literally the best investor the world has ever seen so let's discuss everything warren buffett has been buying and selling in q2 of 2022 and thus what he's thinking about the markets right now so for those that don't know warren buffett makes investments not through his own name but through his company which is berkshire hathaway so technically we're looking at berkshire in this video and that's an important distinction which we'll discuss in a second but let's firstly start with their cash pile so warren buffett has been criticized quite a lot in recent years for not deploying his cash into the market as it just powered forward but of course that has all changed this year at the end of last year berkshire's cash pile was a whopping 143.85 billion however at the end of q1 that was down to 102.69 billion so that was obviously the big news of last quarter that he sunk about 40 billion into the market but now at the close of q2 2022 we can see his buying spree did not really continue into april may and june he now holds 101.34 billion on the sidelines so he sits in roughly one-third cash with two-thirds investors so still a lot of dough that buffett could potentially invest into the market even considering that we know about 30 billion if that is reserved as an emergency fund for the insurance business so that's the cash position and now with that out of the way let's move on to the stock portfolio what has berkshire been buying and selling before we do the big reveal it is worth noting that for the rest of this video we will be focusing in on the top 10 holdings and there's a good reason for that the reason is because warren buffett is not the only person who makes investments under the berkshire name there's also todd combs and ted weschler and in buffett's most recent letter to berkshire shareholders he did note that combined they managed 34 billion as at the end of 2021.
what does this mean well it means that a lot of the smaller positions in the 47 stock berkshire portfolio aren't actually buffered thus for this video will focus on the bigger holdings with that said here is the portfolio in its entirety starting at the top this quarter berkshire added to apple chevron occidental they reduced in u.s bancorp they added to activision blizzard reduced kroger added to paramount global reduced gm added to selenius mckesson ally financial and markel and they reduced in store capital so interestingly no new buyers this quarter however a lot of positions increased in size a few decreased and berkshire sold out of both royalty pharma and verizon in q2 so that's everything but now if we zoom in to just the top ten holdings we can see two key movements this quarter first buffett added 6.35 to activision blizzard now this was a very interesting talking point last quarter as buffett actually admitted that he was not buying activision blizzard for the long term rather he was making a short-term bet that microsoft's acquisition deal would go through of course in january this year microsoft announced it would acquire the video game developer for 69 billion or ninety five dollars per share normally that would cause the share price to rise to close to ninety five dollars as if the deal goes through all those shareholders will be bought out at ninety five dollars but the thing is since the announcement the share price has actually not jumped up to ninety five dollars it's in fact lingered around 80 now it's normal for there to be a bit of a gap there while an acquisition is pending and there's still some uncertainty but right now that gap is about 20 so clearly buffer thinks that gap is worth the potential risk of the acquisition maybe falling through so that's buffett's first notable moving q2 buying a little bit more of activision blizzard stock and eyeing off a quick 20 return if the deal closes but the next major talking point in this 13f is the 16.26 addition to occidental petroleum and the 1.42 increase in chevron so buffett has been eyeing the oil companies we've seen a lot of shorter term investors get into the oil space over the last year or so there's obviously been a major disruption to the flow of oil around the world but normally buffett isn't the type of guy to make short-term commodity plays so there must be something more to the story so let's start with occidental petroleum for those that have kept a close eye on buffett's moves you actually won't be at all surprised to see berkshire's added 16 to the stake and that's because in q2 buffett fittingly filed a total of four form fours with the sec saying that he was buying more occidental and for those that don't know this is a filing you have to submit with the sec every time you own more than 10 of a company and then you make a change to your ownership so as you can see on buffett's last form 4 for q2 he was buying occidental petroleum on the 23rd of june between 55 and 56 per share it's also a good little peak into the price that buffett is willing to pay for occidental but here's the crazy thing sitting here now in q3 2022 we can already see that he's been buying even more occidental right now so at the end of q2 berkshire held 158 million shares but if we look at the most recent form 4 filed on the 8th of august it actually shows that buffett now owns 188 million shares so more than 20 of the company plus he also has 10 billion dollars of occidental preferred shares and 83.9 million warrants so yes buffett bought quite a bit in q2 but he's actually sinking more money into it right now in q3 as well so that's occidental but of course he also added 1.42 to his chevron position so at quarter and berkshire owned a total of 161.4 million chevron shares and the reason that this is interesting and i have to say shout out to tom for bringing this to my attention is because year over year this position has gone from 0.8 of the portfolio to 7.8 and now represents roughly the same amount of money that buffett originally sunk into apple so make no mistake this is a really big bet from buffett and at least the question why is buffett investing in oil well he hasn't come out and specifically stated his reasoning but again i have to give a huge shout out to tom who found a great article detailing all of buffett's quotes on oil over time so i want to read a few and make a bit of an educated guess as to what buffett thinks on his investments in oil so firstly he said in 2020 when you buy into a huge oil production company how it works out is going to depend on the price of oil to a great extent it's not going to be your geological home runs or super mistakes or anything like that it is an investment that depends on the price of oil so obviously oil companies profitability is determined on the price of oil but buffett really doesn't make commodity bets he said himself in 2015 we have not distinguished ourselves at all in the oil and gas field although we've made a little money we will not be buying very often oil and gas stocks but we probably haven't bought the last one well he was certainly right about that last bit so okay then well why is buffett now interested in oil stocks it sounds like he's not particularly interested from those first couple of quotes well listen to this quote from back in 2007.
if we're in an oil stock it's because we think it offers a lot of value at this price but does not mean that we think the price of oil is going up if we thought the price of oil was going up we could just buy oil futures which we actually did once so buffett admits he's not in the game of making commodity predictions but he can spot a deal when it comes across his desk and while i don't believe buffett sees enormous organic growth from these oil names in the future i think what he does see is juicy shareholder returns for example regarding the transcript of the occidental petroleum q1 earnings call buffett said i read every word and said this is exactly what i would be doing she's running the company the right way referring to the ceo vicki hollop and what do you know when you open occidental's q1 earnings release the first line says in q1 they announced a new shareholder return framework and additional debt reduction targets so buybacks and dividends both occurring at both of these companies plus if we turn over to simply wall street we can see that both of these oil companies trade at very low p e ratios and are both undervalued based on simply wall street's discounted cash flow analysis and by the way this is a very handy tool to get a quick snapshot of valuation so i definitely encourage you guys to check out simply wall street if you're interested in using this i'm obviously super happy they decided to join up as a channel sponsor i really like their platform so if you did want to check out the platform link is in the description and if you wanted to get the full access to the whole platform you'll get a 30 discount if you use that link so anyway that is the big story of berkshire's 13f filing this time around buying up the oil companies they also slightly added to their apple position which is their biggest holding after it dipped in q2 which is interesting as it kind of shows what buffett thinks fair value is you know somewhere around the 130 150 range and then the last thing to note in the top 10 is a 5 reduction in u.s bancorp however i really don't think there's anything to talk about there but anyway guys that is it for buffett's big moves in q2 are you surprised to see buffett buying up the oil companies do you think it's a smart move let me know your thoughts and opinions down in the comment section below but apart from that guys please leave a like in the video if you did enjoy it subscribe if you'd like to see more but that'll do us for today i'll see you guys in the next video
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