저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 레이 달리오는 2022년 스태그플레이션 가능성을 경고했으며, 연준이 인플레이션과 경기침체 사이에서 명확한 해법을 찾기 어려워 장기간 스태그플레이션이 나타날 수 있다고 본다. 스태그플레이션 개념: 경기 침체와 높은 인플레이션이 동시에 나타나는 상황으로, 일반적인 호황 인플레이션과 달리 금리 인상이 경기를 더 악화시키는 딜레마를 만든다. 발생 원인 1 - 공급 충격: 1973년 아랍 석유 금수 조치로 유가가 약 3달러에서 12달러 수준으로 치솟았고, 미국 소매 휘발유 가격은 1973년 5월부터 1974년 6월까지 약 43% 상승했다. 이는 물가와 경기 침체를 동시에 유발했다. 발생 원인 2 - 통화 남발과 정책 실패: 짐바브웨 사례처럼 과도한 통화 발행은 인플레이션 기대를 고착시킨다. 1970년대 미국도 베트남 전쟁과 사회보장 확대 속에서 1971년 금태환 중단 후 통화량(M1, M2)이 크게 늘었고, 임금·물가 통제 후 생필품 부족과 이후 가격 급등이 이어졌다. 현재 상황 진단: 달리오는 현재 에너지·공급망 충격과 대규모 통화 공급이 겹쳐 1970년대와 유사한 구조라고 본다. 높은 인플레이션 속에서 경기는 둔화(성장 둔화)되고 있다고 진단했다. 연준의 딜레마: 경기 부양을 위해서는 금리 인하와 통화 공급 확대가 필요하고, 인플레이션 억제를 위해서는 금리 인상과 통화 축소가 필요해 두 목표가 상충한다. 연준은 두 문제 사이에서 어느 쪽도 충분히 해결하지 못하는 상태로 흘러갈 수 있다. 볼커 사례와 정치적 한계: 1980년대 폴 볼커는 기준금리를 20%까지 올려 인플레이션을 잡았지만 실업률이 10.8%까지 치솟는 고통이 따랐다. 달리오는 현재 정치권에 그만한 고통을 감수할 의지가 부족하다고 보았다. 부채와 분배 문제: 부채 부담과 빈부격차, 정치적 갈등이 겹쳐 증세나 긴축이 어렵고, 역사적으로 가장 쉬운 선택지인 통화 발행이 반복될 위험이 크다는 지적이다. 제롬 파월 연준 의장의 과제: 대차대조표 축소(약 1.1조 달러 규모 채권 매각)와 금리 인상을 통해 수요를 억제해야 하지만, 이는 실질 구매력을 더 떨어뜨려 경기 고통을 키운다. 따라서 연준이 인플레이션을 완전히 잡기 어렵고 스태그플레이션이 지속될 가능성이 높다는 것이 달리오의 주장이다. 진행자 질문: 달리오 말대로 향후 몇 년간 스태그플레이션이 올지, 아니면 연준이 2% 목표에 도달할 때까지 단호하게 금리를 올릴지 시청자에게 의견을 묻는다. 리스크: 영상은 2022년 8월 기준의 전망으로, 이후 실제 전개와는 차이가 있을 수 있으며 개별 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 매매 조언은 포함되어 있지 않다.
다듬은 글
over the past few months many economists and investors like ray dalio have come out and predicted an upcoming period of stagflation in the united states sounds like a weird and scary term but as the name suggests it simply means two things occurring at once economic stagnation and inflation it's also called recession inflation it means that inflation is high in an economy that's weak and this is unusual because normally inflation comes about as a result of a booming economy interest rates are low unemployment is low demand is high and business is booming thus producers have so much demand they can raise their prices workers start wanting more money for the same work and inflation starts to rise that's normally how it goes but stagflation is an unusual economic scenario where inflation is high in an economy that's struggling and unemployment is rising this is a particularly painful situation for those controlling economic policy as actions to control inflation like raising interest rates will only make a bad economic situation worse causing even higher unemployment and even tougher financial conditions for businesses and citizens so why does it happen stagflation seems a little counter-intuitive usually when economic conditions worsen this leads to lower inflation and conversely when economic conditions improve this leads to higher inflation well economists say that stagflation can only really occur in two scenarios when there's a sudden supply shock or when there's really poor management of a country's monetary policy firstly supply problems when an event suddenly chokes the supply of necessary goods like food crops or oil this causes prices to rise across the board prices of both the commodities as well as all the other products that somehow rely on them at some point along the chain so prices go up due to scarcity but on top of that having a scarcity of such fundamental economic commodities like oil will also reduce production capabilities and that impacts economic output thus you get stagflation prices rising and economic conditions worsening that was a big contributor to the stagflation of the 1970s in 1973 the members of the organization of arab petroleum exploring countries proclaimed an oil embargo targeted at canada japan the netherlands uk portugal rhodesia south africa and you guessed it the united states by the end of the embargo in march 1974 the price of oil had risen nearly 300 from three dollars a barrel to nearly 12 a barrel globally the average u.s retail price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose 43 from may 1973 to june 1974 so there's the inflation but because oil is such an important industrial resource it also hit america's economy state governments ask citizens to not put up christmas lights oregon banned christmas and commercial lighting altogether politicians called for a national gasoline rationing program president nixon asked gasoline retailers to voluntarily stop selling gasoline on saturday nights and sundays causing massively long lines of motorists wanting to fill up their cars while they still could so this supply shock caused not only price inflation but also economic hardship and that is the definition of stagflation but beyond supply shocks we also have a second cause of stagflation and that is economic mismanagement at a time of big money printing if an economy is struggling oftentimes central banks will print a lot of money to try and stimulate economic growth the thing is adding more dollars to the system is inflationary and if inflation continues for a sustained period people start getting used to it and they come to expect it in zimbabwe's hyperinflation crisis mugabe kept printing money and at worst store owners were raising prices up to three times per day because of expected inflation they weren't getting official inflation statistics three times per day they just expected inflation to continue to raw and what this psychological inflation expectation causes is prices to keep rising citizens to keep spending their money as soon as they get it and inflation becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy inflation stays high irrespective of unemployment or economic output this was again observed through the 1970s the vietnam war was soaking up vast amounts of money plus in his quest to get re-elected president nixon greatly expanded social security but once the us dollar finally abandoned its link to gold in 1971 the u.s was free to print money as they liked to help pay for all this the m1 money supply grew from 228 billion to 249 billion between december 1971 and december 1972 and m2 which measures retail savings and small deposits grew even more by the end of 1972 from 710 billion to 802 billion so the expansion of the money supply was there but what about the mismanagement well at roughly the same time nixon implemented both wage and price controls to try and curb inflation which actually did work initially but it came at a cost because the controls produced food shortages meat disappeared from grocery stores and farmers were so fed up they would resort to drowning their chickens rather than selling them at a loss that's not good for the economy but even worse was that once the price controls were eventually removed that then caused a catch-up period a few years later where businesses raised prices sharply to try and make up for lost time which again spiked inflation but yes excessive money printing as well as poor economic decision making can also cause stagnation on top of just supply shocks now that was quite a long explanation you might ask why did i go into so much detail there well it's because as you might have already clued in on we're also seeing a very similar situation now we've got the supply shock in oil and gas we've got other supply constraints from the global supply chain and we've just seen a period of huge money printing and the result is red-hot inflation but right now the economy is worsening and someone that's been warning us this whole time has been ray dalio are we close to having cyflation we are instinct we are you have a stagnant economy stagnant essentially means growth is reduced growth right and with high inflation and that happens through this monetary situation that i'm describing in which the central bank tries to deal with a middle course in other words what does the central bank want not too high inflation and not too low growth and so when there's a lot of debt because one man's debts are another man's assets it becomes very difficult balancing act and that is when you have stagflation when you produce it so just like in the late 60s we spent a lot of money on the vietnam war and social programs and so on we wrote too many checks relative to the money we had in the bank which was gold at the time 1971 the devaluation then they print a lot of money into that stagnation so stagflation is the middle course when there's two different groups so just like the 1970s today we've got high inflation and economic weakness now the difficult thing for the federal reserve is their solutions for each of these problems are contradictory so for the economic weakness the fed would love to print money and lower interest rates but for the inflation the fed needs to subtract money and raise rates so how do they tackle both at the same time well they can't and what ray's saying is what's likely going to happen is the fed will likely try and plot their way as best as they can through the middle of these two problems which will likely cause stagflation a period where not enough gets done to kill inflation like what paul volcker did back in the 70s and not enough gets done to substantially improve the economy when you're stuck with two trade-offs too much inflation or you're stuck with too much economic weakness then you navigate through the middle and that means something like stagflation and i think the political and the wealth gap issues and so on create a set of circumstances that's not easy to get out of because everybody needs more money taxation is the way to do it normally but it's taking money away from somebody whoever it is the one easy thing throughout history that's always been done is the printing of money because nobody even pays much attention to where the wealth is coming from this clip is interesting because ray touch is more on the political struggle that also ties into the situation which just adds another layer of complexity as you can imagine raising rates and subtracting money in large quantities at a time where citizens are already struggling to make ends meet is a hugely unpopular thing to do and reyes said in the past that he doubts there is enough political willpower in this day and age to decisively raise rates in order to stop inflation and if that's the case and you can probably argue we've seen a bit of that already and that simply adds to the probability of stagflation for example paul volcker caused a nasty recession in the early 80s when he hiked the fed funds rate to 20 percent that hurt people a lot it did significantly reduce the inflation rate and killed the stagflation scene throughout the 1970s but he didn't have a whole lot of friends at the time ray posted in the footnotes of one of his recent linkedin posts that quote while paul volcker's bone crushing tightening was followed by an improvement in conditions in the 1980s a it took a rise in real short rates to 8.4 percent and an economic dive that took the unemployment rate to 10.8 percent to reduce the spending to lower inflation and b it led foreign countries debtors to be squeezed and to cut spending a lot putting them into 10 year long depressions in other words inflation was reduced by people and companies being painfully squeezed and reducing spending the question is will there be the political willpower to do a similar thing today ray argues probably not and i mean it took half a year for the fed to even acknowledge that inflation existed while they were flogging the printer so it's definitely an interesting factor to consider and if the political willpower isn't there it only adds to the stagflation argument not enough gets done to solve either of the two problems and we get caught in the middle for a long time jay powell has a balancing act that he has to achieve in order to try to ward off a recession right so think about it this way how does he literally fight inflation because everybody says tight money policies well the way that happens is you get people to spend less by taking money and credit away from them right so he will reduce the amount of money and credit that's available the federal reserve is going to sell 1.1 trillion dollars of debt that it has debt assets buys and then they're going to raise interest rates so they create a squeeze that reduces demand at the same time as people don't have enough money because inflation is higher and their buying power is less that's right because inflation is high the buying power is less and then what that act is is to reduce buying power again to reduce inflation but it comes at a big cost and that is stagflation so in this scenario if the fed really wants to kill inflation the method for doing so might be so painful that they simply won't be able to do it to people if that is indeed the case then in raise eyes it's highly likely that we're in for a period of stagflation persistent inflation economic struggles and thus nothing the fed can do that solves both simultaneously but with that said do you think ray is right will we see stagflation over the next few years or will the fed be decisive and keep raising rates until they hit their two percent inflation rate definitely let me know what you think find it useful or if you enjoyed it subscribe to the channel if you'd like to see more but guys that will just about do it for today thanks very much for watching i'll see you guys in the next video
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