저자: Eddie · 한국인
요약 보기
FOMC(9/17 전후) 전 금리인하 기대(100%, 25bp 94%)를 근거로 시장 상승 시나리오를 설명. 물가 3% 이하 유지와 견조한 고용이 상승 압력 지속 조건이라 주장. 트럼프 측 연준 인사 교체와 금리 1% 이하 압박을 언급하고 금 상승·지정학 리스크를 짚음. 테슬라는 삼각수렴 돌파 후 신고가 시도 가능성, 머스크 보상안·FSD·옵티머스 일정, 한국 투자자 순유출을 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
There are only about 4 days left until the FOMC meeting . I will explain what kind of scenario needs to emerge for the market to continue rising . And Tesla rose nearly 12% this week, so I will summarize everything that has happened recently and explain the reasons for this significant increase in the stock price.
First of all, I see a 100% possibility of an interest rate cut this time . Among them, 94% expect a 25bp rate cut, and around 6 to 10% expect a 50bp big cut. So, we are lowering interest rates, but what does that mean? As long-term interest rates set by the market fall, it becomes cheaper to borrow money for typical long-term loans, such as those for homes or cars .
Then, people can take out more loans and consume more, which strengthens the consumer economy and puts upward pressure on stock prices. The Trump administration is formulating plans to continue interest rate hikes, but first of all, Federal Reserve Governor Boris Johnson and Federal Reserve Governor Won-Russia have switched to the Trump faction since Trump became president.
And recently, there is talk that pressure is being exerted behind the scenes on Adriana Google, a Federal Reserve Board member appointed during the Biden administration, effectively amounting to her dismissal . And they are also trying to oust Fed Governor Lisa. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jeron Powell's term runs until next May, so if he steps down, only these two will remain.
Then, the Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, five of whom are aligned with Trump. Then, if Trump pressures the rate, the likelihood of the performance changing increases. The current federal benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, and the neutral rate was projected to be around 2 to 3% .
The neutral interest rate can also be seen as the bottom of the interest rate . So, when there was a discussion about how much to lower interest rates, around 2 to 3 percent was mentioned. However, Trump wants 1% . I also want 1% or less . What the Trump administration and Trump want is to keep bringing it down.
I mentioned earlier that lowering interest rates like this leads to an increase in consumption. If consumption increases, the price index naturally rises. So, to explain what kind of scenario needs to unfold for the market to continue experiencing upward pressure, the price index must remain consistently low.
Even with tariffs and interest rate hikes, the price index must be maintained below 3%. If the price index rises to 3%, 4%, or 5%, the market will experience less upward pressure because interest rates cannot be lowered . Uh, regarding the inflation figures released recently, they have been gradually rising since April, and the Trump administration began implementing tariffs in earnest starting in August.
So, in August, it held at 2.9% and 9%, but we need to watch to see if it continues to stay at that level without rising or if it will drop. If it rises this low, the market could continue to face upward pressure. And secondly, the job market must be strong . Just because the Fed lowers interest rates doesn't mean the market will necessarily improve.
So, one of the indicators to look at that is the non-farm employment figure, but recently it has been showing a bit weak. There is also talk circulating that this figure came out low due to seasonality and political reasons. In any case, employment indicators need to be this high for the market to be seen as strong, and for the market to continue receiving upward pressure as inflation is brought under control and the economy is viewed as robust .
So, to summarize simply, the price index must fall and the job market must be strong for upward pressure to continue. Because Trump is replacing the Fed board members . Lisa Cook left, Azuna Koorra left, Bowman and Waller switched to Trump, and now they are trying to get rid of Jeron Powell . Then, as it becomes possible to hold an interest rate hike, even if it means pushing a bit too hard, market liquidity will be released.
If a large amount of money is released into the market, there are concerns about the inflation rate, but as companies earn more money, stock prices will naturally rise. However, recently there is another concerning aspect. It would be good to be aware of this risk, as Xi Jinping, Putin, Modi, China, Russia, India, and other allies are consolidating power.
The U.S. Department of Defense was also changed to the Department of War by President Trump two weeks ago. So, as these geopolitical issues are escalating, it is reported that President Trump has sent another letter to NATO member states and the world this weekend . It is said that a letter was sent to NATO member states implying that tariffs of up to 100% could be imposed on China and India if they purchase Russian oil .
So, not only the U.S. but also NATO countries are pressuring Russia, China, and India to impose tariffs. They will probably say it like this again. If NATO member states do not impose tariffs on India, Russia, and China, the U.S. could say again that it can impose tariffs on you . So, due to these geopolitical issues, the price of gold is truly becoming the price of gold.
This year alone is really surprising, but it went up 38% this year. SP has a 12% return this year and has outperformed SP by more than three times. So, the price of gold is performing very well, and this can also be seen as a risk. So, regarding the factors that could drive the market down, with about four days left until the 4Cs, I explained what scenarios need to emerge for it to rise and what risks are involved.
Now, moving on to Tesla, it rose nearly 12% last week alone . So, although profits were negative this year, I made a transition. Finally, the Nasdaq and SP are currently hitting all-time highs, and the Nasdaq alone has risen for 8 or 9 consecutive trading days. So, as Tesla finally moved up and down like this, if you look at this chart—really, really, really—there is a story behind it .
It kept hitting the resistance line in a triangular convergence and falling, then hitting resistance again and falling, doing this for almost three months. Then it broke through, but failed again and fell, hitting the bottom of the triangular convergence here . If you look closely, if you look closely here, I took a picture all the way to the bottom.
You hit resistance on the rebound after hitting a mark and can't break through immediately . It hit resistance again, found support, and then finally broke through last week . So, this is such an important position that it is forming to the point where it is attempting an all-time high . So, if it comes down a bit for a short-term correction and drops about 3 or 4% from the current price of $385 to find support, it could attempt to reach an all-time high.
Last week, Oracle was catching up closely to Tesla as it rose to nearly $1 trillion, but Oracle founder Larry Ellison became the world's richest person only to lose the title to Tesla in less than 24 hours. 1st place went to 1-Run at 463 billion and Larry Ellis at 351 billion. If we were to pick out just the major reasons among the many reasons why Tesla has risen so much, first of all, if Musk does not exit his short position on August 13th, he will be annihilated.
I used the word obliterated. Elon Musk wrote this on X number X posts . Uh, I wrote it in a comment. The text written on August 13th. Uh, this is a post written on August 13th. It said that if you do not exit your short position, you will be annihilated. Uh, regarding the comment I wrote on a post, someone compiled a list of companies that shorted Tesla and posted it, mentioning that MUFG Securities, a Japanese subsidiary of Mitsubishi, had recently added a lot of short positions.
Musk then commented on that. If you do not exit your short position, you will be annihilated. And in an interview last week, Elon Musk said that he had n't been to Washington D.C. since May. So, you could say that he has largely distanced himself from politics. As of now. And last week, the Chairman of the Tesla Board of Directors came out and made a statement again, saying that Elon Musk had completed his political mission and given up on Tesla .
And we also talked about the compensation package. If Tesla reaches milestones—for example, a market capitalization of $2 trillion with 20 million vehicles delivered, $3 trillion with 1 million robots delivered, a market capitalization of $3.5 trillion or $5 trillion, and 1 million robot taxis operating commercially— Elon Musk will provide a compensation package at each stage.
The Tesla Chairman submitted these compensation package milestones to the SCC, and he is currently running several companies. There is also an expectation that if such a compensation package is provided, Elon Musk will be able to focus more on Tesla. If you look here, there are market capitalization milestones up to $8.5 trillion.
It is very ambitious. And a slightly more fundamental reason is that during Tesla's second-quarter earnings announcement on July 23, Elon Musk mentioned the timeline for unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving), stating that personal unsupervised FSD would be possible by the end of 2025, subject to regulatory approval in specific regions .
It is September 14th now, so there are only about three months left. Therefore, they also expressed confidence that they would achieve unperced FSD in several cities by the end of the year . So, they mentioned that the FSD launch schedule is approaching, and regarding Optimus production, they said that a prototype would be produced within three months by October 2025, and mass production would begin in early 2026 .
And they said that a production volume of 100,000 units per month within five years is a reasonable goal, and that they are aiming for an annual production of 1 million units by 2030 . So, there is also an expectation that the Optimus prototype will be produced within a month and mass production of Optimus will begin early next year .
And there was also this indicator. There was an article stating that a mass exodus from Korean retailers occurred due to cryptocurrency investments, and Tesla's popularity among long-term Korean investors had declined. It started to decline in popularity starting in April of this year. If you look at the blue line, it shows the monthly inflow into Tesla stock from Korea, and it is in the negative.
yes. It means that it went out . Of course, there have been times when it rose this much before, but looking at 2020, even though it rose this much, the drop was less. However, there has been the largest outflow of Tesla stock from Korea since 2019 . I sold a lot . So, I explained why Tesla went up and briefly explained the chart as well.
So, in today's video, with the FOMC meeting now about four days away, I explained what kind of scenario needs to emerge for the market to rise, and I also explained why Tesla rose so significantly last week . So, if the FOMC meeting goes well next week and the indicators come out positive so the market continues to rise, it will be interesting to see if Tesla hits another new high.
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