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jeremy grantham market crash 2022 talking about u.s super bubble in 1989 crash explained one of the world's most famous fund managers is warning that a super bubble that's been building for more than a decade may be in the process of bursting jeremy grantham is the co-founder of gmo which claims to have predicted the japanese crash of 1989 the dot-com bust of 2000 and the global financial crisis of 2008.
jeremy grantham's market crash and a super bubble crash prediction so let's get right into it jeremy grantham is the co-founder of gmo which claims to have predicted the japanese crash of 1989 the dot-com bust of 2000 and the global financial crisis of 2008. he is now warning of another similar crash in asset prices with speculative tech stocks first in the firing line and he warns the downturn is likely already happening with wall street's tech heavy nasdaq down 12 percent from its peak in november and the broader s p 500 index down almost seven percent from its record closing high in early january i would say that is the beginning of the bust when the specs that typically go up quite a lot more than the market go down as the market goes up he tells the business so the s p 500 index went up 25 last year and a lot of the most speculative stocks of 2020 were already going down that is very rare it happened in 1929 it happened in 1972 before the very big decline then it happened in 2000 before the tech wipeout mr grantham says that process of a super bubble bursting appears to be well underway with many of the most speculative stocks already losing at least half their value from its peak at the end the speculative stocks start to peel off and even on the upside for the broader market they start to go down he observes that started early last year the super duper specs the worst of them all started to decline and then one by one they fell in and started to drop and as we stand today something like forty percent of all the nasdaq stocks are down over fifty percent which is pretty amazing mr grantham says the current u.s market is looking eerily similar to the dot-com boom in bust but as in 2000 he warns it is not only the speculative stocks that are heavily overvalued and will fall i think it would be unlikely that the market would not come down by 50 percent from its peak the broad market the s p and it would be unusual if the specs did not do worse than that asx doesn't look horrific the good news for australian investors is that even though mr grantham thinks real estate and bonds are overvalued across most of the developed world he believes the local stock market is nowhere near as overpriced as wall street i'm not an expert on australian equities it doesn't look cheap but it doesn't look horrific he says when it comes to the stock market rather like 2000 and the tech bubble this is more an american affair than anything else outside america the world is merely overpriced ho-hum it's often overpriced it's not that unusual not that dangerous in the u.s however we have an extreme overpricing extreme crazy behavior and i think we're in a rather dangerous equity bubble so there's a decent chance that australia the uk japan there's some fairly reasonably priced countries if they come down in sympathy they'll come down a lot less and probably rally earlier where to stash cash his preference is to look for beaten down stock values in some of the developing markets emerging markets and some of the cheaper developed countries would be very much a better idea than a massive holding of u.s equities he says if you have to own u.s stocks you should own high quality stocks that are in good financial shape because this can always spiral into something of a financial crisis they often do like when you go shopping mr grantham says investors should be on the lookout for bargains not paying top dollar make sure you don't buy expensive markets expensive stocks he warns emphasize value cheapness for what you get hunt around for the cheaper countries hunt around for the cheapest stocks within those countries carry some cash reserves there will be perhaps some very nice buying opportunities and whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles cryptocurrency hoax one area where he urges particular caution is cryptocurrencies bitcoin in particular it does nothing for anybody and is superseded by a whole generation of smarter and more effective cryptocurrencies many of which in turn do not make money in the traditional way and a few do he argues so i'm sure the idea embedded in cryptocurrency will be around for perhaps forever but i'm equally certain that most of the value today as a store value is a hoax that is not a store of value everyone can agree that the volatility is massive it goes up and down with the high risk stocks golden age for corporate profits ending longer term mr grantham warns that stock values will be weighed down by two factors that have been boosting them for decades one is higher inflation he argues that the levels of inflation seen in the u.s since the middle of last year should already have triggered a major sell-off in stocks on expectations that record low interest rates would need to rise the market is saying about inflation that it totally ignores it he says it completely believes the fact that it's temporary ephemeral etc and it doesn't appear to be and if that seeps into the market in the usual way it will mercilessly depress the price earnings ratios he says this could mean his forecast 50 u.s share price crash could play out over an extended period rather than be a short sharp sell-off this could turn out to be quite a struggle where slowly but surely the market has to readjust to higher and higher rates and higher inflation he says the other factor he feels could weigh on share prices is a possible drop in the current record share of economic output going to company profits profit margins averaged 30 to 35 percent higher than they had been in the previous 50 to 60 years he observes everything seemed to work out corporations got a lot of political power but taxes on capital all dropped tax on dividends tax on interest rates tax on capital gains all came down most of the regulatory bodies were somewhat captured by corporations and they have had a golden era we've never seen bigger profits the concentration in each industry has increased and the fangs facebook amazon netflix google that are remarkable companies are in their own way instant monopolies so the monopolistic feature of our economy today and somewhat around the world has increased this is very good for profits it's not so good for growth and governments are beginning to twitch a bit ] you
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