Ed Yardeni on Markets | War, Oil Prices & Why Investors Should Stay Calm | Business News | ET Now

요약 보기

전쟁 관련 지정학 리스크에도 시장은 3~12개월 내 전쟁 종료를 반영하며 3월 말 바닥을 형성했다고 봄. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄로 유가 약 100달러 유지 중이나 50~70달러로 복귀하진 않고 80~100달러 수준 예상. 휴전 협상은 불확실하며 재개되더라도 수주 내 마무리될 것으로 전망. 미국채는 인플레이션 상승 위험 대비 과소 반영돼 매력 낮다고 판단. 금은 전쟁 종료 후 상승 추세가 재개될 것으로 보며 현재 5,000달러 부근 횡보 중.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Joined by Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, joining us this morning. Ed, always good speaking with you. Let me first start off by understanding how you're contextualizing everything that's playing out. Do you believe that uh this this peace that we're gunning for will actually come through or or do you believe that in all of this chaos we might actually slip another few weeks and and for and it may take a few weeks actually for the situation to stabilize?

02. Well, you know, more important than what I think is what the market seems to be saying and I think that the market did in fact make an important bottom on at the end of March on the news that we were moving towards something like a ceasefire. Now that we have the ceasefire, it sure doesn't feel quite that way in the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and the price of oil, while it came down initially on the news of a possible ceasefire, the the price as you said is around $100.

03. But look, geopolitical crises historically have presented buying opportunities to investors and that seems to be what's happening now. The market is looking through this this war and concluding that within the next 3 to 12 months this will be behind us one way or the other. The price of oil may still be elevated.

04. It's probably not going to go back to 50, 60, 70 dollars. It may be more like 80 to 100 dollars. But the world will adjust to it and the economies and earnings will continue to grow. And of course that's a relief compared to the alternative of just an ongoing massive war in the Middle East that continues to destroy production facilities.

05. Hi, morning here. How do you see this entire ceasefire negotiations proceeding? You already going into the entire meeting with at least three conditions of ceasefires getting violated. Well, you know, the US and Iran have been negotiating for many, many years without getting a deal. The Iranians have really resisted uh making any changes and they've uh they've lost the war in in the military sense, but strategically speaking, they've got a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz and that gives them a lot of power in these negotiations.

06. I I I really don't know. I mean, I I suspect that that could be a deal, but this thing could also break down over the weekend and we could have uh a resumption of the war on on Monday. That's kind of the situation we're in. Um so we'll see. But I think that even if there's a resumption of the war, it's not going to be lasting for months.

07. It's going to be maybe lasting for another few weeks. It's going to be a combination of military activity to try to influence what's going on in the negotiations and I think eventually we'll we'll get it we'll get some sort of deal that all sides can live with. So, Ed, are you safest with gold right now or US bonds as an investment class?

08. Well, you know, I think I'm really amazed by how calm the bond market has been here. The deficit's going to be bigger in the US because of more defense spending and at the same time we know that inflation's going to be rising and there's just kind of this weird sense in the bond market that this is definitely going to be transitory and we know how well that worked back in 2021 when the Fed thought inflation would be transitory and then oil prices spiked and it turned out to be a bigger problem and the Fed had to tighten.

09. I think we may be looking at a more serious inflation problem than the bond market is considering. So, no, I don't think bonds are particularly attractive here. Gold has been an interesting lesson in market dynamics, right? I mean, everybody I think expected that with the war, with higher inflation, higher oil prices, the gold prices would go to the moon.

10. Instead, they didn't. They had a the 10, 15% kind of correction and even now gold seems to be kind of stalled here right below $5,000. I think the war has to come to an end and I think then the upward trend in gold will will resume. I think for now it's quite likely that some central banks, particularly there's evidence that the bank central bank of Turkey has had to sell gold in order to prop up its its currency.

11. Okay, Ed, great to have you on the show today. Thank you so much for your time and perspective.