저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500 일봉에 대형 베어 플래그가 형성되어 있어 378·375 지지 이탈 시 350대까지 하락 가능성을 제기. 지지선 이탈 전에는 저점 매수를 지양하고, 386~387 돌파 시 상승 전환을 고려. 나스닥100·다우·러셀2000·VIX·비트코인·아마존·마이크로소프트·엔비디아·테슬라·애플 등 다수 기술주에 대해 지지·저항 기준으로 하락 우위 관점을 제시. 테슬라는 장기 매집 구간으로 언급.
다듬은 글
in the stock market we are pulling back from the top of the trading range as we are developing a huge daily Bear Flag will this Bear Flag break down and send us to brand new lower lows let's go ahead and address the elephant in the room because you see it I see it everybody sees it there is a giant bear flag on this daily chart and if you know anything about bear Flags typically when you break out of the flag you will go the equal distance as the flagpole which easily takes spy down to the 52-week lows which is in the 350s now yes this is a very bearish pattern and yes we are in a very strong downtrend but I will assure you this does not guarantee we have to go lower you want to wait for the price action confirmation which is going to be two breakdowns of support which is going to be 378 and then 375.
if we break through those levels we are very likely going to see spy flushing down into the 350s over the next couple of weeks and we could see that Catalyst starting tomorrow with the unemployment data so do keep this in mind and I will warn you everybody can see this on the chart and when everybody can see something happening there are times where the stock market does do the opposite so yes this is the highest probability chance and this does go with the strongest degree of the trend which is still a bear market downtrend so it's very easy to visualize this and I talked about this just last night how easy it is to visualize a rejection from a then get ready to go for that next leg lower and right on cue we are starting to pull back from that resistance however we have not yet broken down through that critical support at 378 and then below 378 there is an hourly support at 375 so you can watch both of those levels and you instantly need to get bearish if we start breaking support breaking support means we're going to liquidate all of the Longs who thought we would bounce from this level and that is going to be all of the momentum to start us pushing down lower So Below 378 we'll be looking for 371 and then 364 and those will be the next legs lower in this bear Market if we get the balance we need to break above the resistance at 386 to 387 and then we have strong resistance at 390 393 and the Gap fill just above 396.
so there is a ton of resistance above making the Bull's job very difficult so do understand tomorrow we are likely going to see a huge Catalyst with the unemployment data and that is likely going to give us a good chance of breaking out of this training range but we're not getting a breakout until the Bulls get above 386 or the Bears Get Down Below 378.
on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were down 1.57 today and the triple cues are getting rejected below that negatively sloping five EMA so this is looking like a very powerful downtrend with all of the moving averages aggressively sloping in the negative Direction the critical support for you Bulls is right here at 260 because if we break 260 we are very likely going to 254 and then 250.
above 260 we could still get a bounce back to the top of the range which is right around 270 to 273 and the only way you can be bullish is by managing your risk down here around the support at 260 or waiting for some type of bull breakout above the 270s which is more than likely at least a week or two away if we are even going to get a bull breakout at all you can see this is a very powerful downtrend and we're below all of the moving averages so if you're going against the trend make sure you're managing a risk very tightly at this exactly one percent today and we did close below the 50 EMA and you can see the Dow Jones is also looking like a daily Bear Flag with that critical support being down here right around 327.
below 327 we have support around 324 and that next leg lower will likely take us to 319 18.5 the bull breakout is above 334 which should take us to 341 and on the way to 341 we will have resistance around that Gap fill just above 337. on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were down 1.07 today with that very clear rejection from that critical resistance at 176 which is that negatively sloping 20 daily moving average the bull breakout is above 176 for the next Target of 178 and the Gap filled right around 179 and the bear breakdown is below 172 to bring us back down towards 166 and 163.
on the arcade ETF we were down 2.39 today and RK is back down below all of the moving averages and we still have the bear Trend so you need to be managing a risk right here right around 30 or if you're a bear you need to be managing a risk right around 32.5 the next leg lower will likely take us down to 28.37 on a break below 30 and we can get a lot more bullish if we can start breaking above 32.5 for that Gap fill above 34.
on the vix rewrap 2.05 today in the vixen still trading within this range between 20 and 24 and we are still consolidating in this Zone which is still a high volatile Zone while the vix is above 20. the Bulls want the vix below 20 and the bears want to keep the vix elevated above 20 and preferably a break above 24.
on bitcoin we're currently flat on the day going absolutely nowhere but we did close yesterday back over the 20 daily moving average which does give us the possibility of coming back up towards this resistance at 17 550. above that we can run back up to 19 000 but the critical support is still down here at 16 000.
if we break critical support our next leg lowers 14 395. on Amazon stock we were down 2.37 today and we did follow through with that very obvious rejection from the negatively sloping 20 daily moving average just below 87. that's going to be critical resistance because that's where the Bears are showing up at so the Bulls need to break above 87 and then back over 91.
the critical support level will be down here right around 81.7 and then our next leg lower low that breakdown will be eighty dollars and then seventy seven on Microsoft stock we were down 2.96 today and Microsoft is getting extremely oversold below this daily lower Bollinger band and we're down below the support at 225 which means we could be going for that next leg lower all the way down here at 214.
Microsoft is one of the big Tech laggards to start falling because we've already seen this type of price action behavior and a lot of the other big Tech names a break below 214 invites capitulation and we have a huge outstanding Gap to fill above at 237. if you want to play the gap for that 237 you now need to manage a risk down here right around 223 but we did close below that level today so you're already taking on a lot more risk if you're trading Microsoft long unless you wait until we get closer to 214.
on Nvidia stock we were down 3.28 today as we're back down below all of the moving averages and we're still in the strong downtrend and we're right here at the critical support level between 141 and 142. if this support fails look for that next leg lower at 133 and the bull breakout does this point will be above 147 and then 156.
on Tesla stock we were down 2.9 percent today and Tesla continues to find buyers at this support level at 107 which is a very critical weekly support level below 107 we should quickly get to 94 but these are very strong support levels and we are seeing very high volume buying at these levels so if you are bullish on Tesla stock for the longer term and you don't mind holding it for multiple weeks or months I do believe these are great prices to start accumulating at if you're just a short-term Trader you can still buy around 107 for the upside price targets at 116 and the gap for that 120 but there will be very strong resistance between 120 and 123.
if the Bulls can break above 123 we should easily get to 138 with a very sharp v-shaped recovery but that will require the break of resistance right here at 123. so yes I do think Tesla is due for a very powerful balance but it is going to take time to turn this corner and once we start the upward momentum I think it'll be very difficult to slow it down so if you want to be a little safer just wait for some type of bullish price action and a confirmation of a breakup resistance and there should still be plenty of time to take that trade on Apple stock we were down 1.06 percent today and apple broke down through the support at 126 yet again which means we are very likely going down for that Weekly support and price Target down here around 122.
Apple at 122 should be very strong support so if we break below that I do expect to see high volume selling and capitulation in apple upside resistance levels are 126 130 and 135. on the financials we were down 0.75 percent today with the price action still above all of the moving averages as we start to develop a bull Trend the Industrials were down 1.08 today rejecting from that resistance around 99 and back down below the 20 daily moving average we need to hold support to go up there and close the gap at 100.
the healthcare sector was down 1.02 percent today a coming back down to the very critical support level at 134 and if this level breaks down we should be coming all the way down to about 131. the energy sector was up 1.82 today getting that very strong balance off of the critical support Zone around 82.7 and we're back up to resistance around the 50 EMA which we need to break above to get back up towards 88.5 so jumping back over to the S P 500 this is a very critical week because we are going to see a break of this trading range which does look like a giant bear flag on the daily chart so you instantly need to get very bearish on the market if this Bear Flag breaks to the downside and slices through critical support I always suggest waiting for the support level to break because I never suggest getting bearish at support because there could be the chance Bulls show up if Bulls show up at support and we get a strong balance you instantly need to get a lot more bullish because we could be heading to 396.
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