저자: Corey · 외국인
요약 보기
2022년 12월 말 기준 빅테크 약세장 2차 하락 국면을 기술적 분석으로 설명. 테슬라는 107~115 지지, 121 갭 메우기 등을 근거로 현 수준이 매수 기회라고 주장하나 추가 하락 가능성(94)도 인정. 애플은 131 주간 종가 이탈 시 122, 109, 101 하락 가능성 제시, 마이크로소프트·아마존·엔비디아·구글·메타도 주요 지지선 이탈 위험을 언급. 나스닥100은 258 지지선 방어 여부가 관건이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
e're going to do a special video update and we're going to look at all of the big tech companies and do technical analysis and specifically try to answer the question is it time to buy Tesla stock so first we'll be taking a look at a weekly chart of Tesla stock oday on Tesla we were up 3.31 and we have not yet closed the weekly candle on this chart because remember this is a weekly chart every candle is one entire week's worth of price action now the first thing I want you to pay attention to is this is clearly a bear market and we are clearly in the second leg of the bear market with the first leg ending back here sometime in May of June of 2022.
we had that bear Market relief rally that brought us back up to the bear Market resistance trend line and ever since we have been seeing high volume selling and we're now reaching the phase of capitulation so when we try to answer the question of whether whether or not it's time to buy Tesla stock we need to be thinking about the time frame in which we're looking and the chart of where we are currently at with relative support nearby now remember as an investor whether or not you think these are great opportunities to load up stocks or not there is a very simple saying in investing which is simply Buy Low and sell high and looking at this chart I think we can all agree that Tesla stock is much lower than where it came down from the all-time high and we are clearly in an opportunity to buy this stock at lower prices we'll never know exactly where the bottom is going to be and we'll never know if this stock will recover to brand new all-time highs so we are going to leave all of that fundamental debate on the sideline and we are going to strictly look at the technicals on this chart so the first thing I want you to pay attention to is if we just go back from the March 2020 crashing lows we were all the way down here in the low 20s and we had this very exponential bull rally that brought us all the way to all-time highs in the 400s and that marked the recent all-time I'm high since we started this bear Market from there we have had over a 76 percent retracement which is this support Zone around 115.
we are currently at the bottom support of this channel that is a downtrend and we have now had an equal legs move from the phase one of the bear Market which brings us down to about Tesla levels of 107. so there is a very high probability chance from these levels with multiple support in this Zone that we could see a very strong Bounce from these levels which could take us all the way back up to the breakdown below 173 or even the breakdown down below 196.
now if you go back to the bull phase we can clearly see the last leg of the bull face started back here in May of 2021 and it did end sometime around November of 2021 and that is typically going to be the phase where a lot of retailers are loading up on the stock and they are very late in the game to the bull Trend and they are thinking that they are still going to make a lot of money even though they're buying near the all-time highs so for that reason there is a good reason to believe that a lot of retail investors in Tesla stock had a cost basis somewhere around 196 because they likely didn't start catching on to the trend until they missed the last Trend lost a lot of money if they were buying up here around 292 had a very nice drawdown down to 196 and then didn't want to miss the next rally so they started loading up the whole entire way up to all-time highs which led to a full-blown greed cycle which is the exact point that a bear market usually begins when everybody is greedy and everybody thinks they're a genius because they bought a stock that just continues to go higher now why that's relevant is because breaking down below this psychological level at 196 where a lot of retail likely started to pile into the stock is exactly what will lead to capitulation because even if you bought this stock over a year ago and you haven't sold a share you are now down quite significantly on your investment down about 44 so the psychological reaction to that event is full-blown panic because you're now down nearly 50 percent on a stock that you bought over a year ago and you had these really nice gains at some point you were up let's say over a hundred percent and now you're down over 40 percent so that is why Tesla stock is likely capitulating because this is a retail favorite stock and they are now running for the hills trying to get out of this stock before they lose any more money and that is the exact moment in time you typically want to be buying stocks and not selling them so it is my opinion that at these levels this is a no-brainer buy for Tesla stock and yes we could still go lower because if we break down below 107 we do have the next weekly support down here right around 94.
so yes we can go lower so you do need to continue to manage your own risk and you need to decide if this stock is right for you but this is clearly looking at the weekly chart a very good opportunity to buy this stock low now the next thing I want to do is I want to throw on the Bollinger Bands and I want to switch this over to a monthly chart and you can very clearly see on the monthly chart we are extremely oversold below the lower boundary band and this lower Bollinger band for the month of December is still right around 140.
now these bands will continue to expand especially when we get a brand new monthly candle next month but this is just more evidence that this stock has seen full-blown capitulation and it's at extremely oversold levels which are likely not going to last once we start getting the bounce we should see a reversion back to the meeting very quickly which could lead to a very strong rally in the short term nothing is guaranteed so don't think that means we have to go higher but at a very minimum I would expect to see a bounce back into this range around 129 to about 140.
so jumping back over to the weekly chart that easily gets us back up above this support Zone on the weekly chart at 129 and from there you should be able to manage your risk from that Weekly support at 129. below 129 you have support at 115 107 and then 94 and if we start breaking down below 9 94 there is likely something very fundamentally wrong with this stock and then you will need to assess whether or not there's something bigger going on behind the scenes Now quickly if we jump over to the daily chart on Tesla you can see we have the same downtrending channel and we are getting that very parabolic sell-off which is likely the high volume capitulation and we do have this Gap to fill up here right around 121.
so in the very near term you could easily get a nice trade around 107 up to 121 but that Gap fill could instantly act as resistance so you need to watch for that level as resistance unless we can break above it above 121 we'll look for resistance around 138 and then 156 and all of this could happen very quickly because sometimes when you get these capitulations you can get a very impulsive v-shaped recovery so watch The Daily resistance around 121 138 and 156 and if we could break above 156 we'll be looking for 167 and that resistance right around 173.
all right next up I want to take a look at Apple stock which is extremely important because it is one of the most important stocks in the S P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 because it does carry the most weight in the index now looking at the Apple bear Market we can clearly see it's not as impulsive to the downside as we see in Tesla stock but we are starting to break down through a very critical weekly support which is the weekly close below 131.
if Apple continues to get weekly closes below 131 this is going to start looking like a weekly lower low and there's only about two trading days left in the week so it does look like there's a very good chance Apple does close down below this weekly support So for that reason we want to instantly start looking at the next downside price targets which is going to be this support right around 122 which gives us an equal leg bear Market of the bear Market that ended in June of 2022 and then we did start back into the phase two of that bear market after we reached the peak in August of 2022.
that bear Market likely is not yet over because we're just now breaking through critical support so we will want to watch for the next strong support zone right around 122 and it does look like we can get there very soon in the month of January from there we'll want to see if we can get a balance back up to the resistance at 131 and then we will want to watch to see if that level is going to act as resistance or if the Bulls can bounce back above that level and turn it back into support so you're going to have very critical resistance in apple on the weekly chart at 131 and very critical weekly support at 122.
if we lose 122 that means we can quickly see capitulation just like we've been seeing in Tesla stock which means we can very quickly get to 109 and then 101 so 122 is extremely critical and if we break that we will be looking for a full-blown capitulation high volume selling down to 109 and then 101 so watch that very critical support and that very critical resistance and remember these are weekly charts so this is going to take weeks and months to play out so don't just assume all of this has to happen in the next three to five trading days you can see from the weekly support trend line that we are breaking down from support that goes all the way back to 2020 and so far this is definitely looking like this bear Market is not yet over and could be accelerating to the downside Now quickly if we look at the daily chart you can see we are breaking down below daily support at 1 30 and we do have lots of white space to the downside before we hit support at 122 and we did get a very high volume selling candle today on that breakdown below support which is no surprise because that's where a lot of stop losses are set and they are clearly getting liquidated with today's price action so look for that strong resistance on the daily chart at 1 30 and we have the same daily support down here right around 122.
on Microsoft stock we were down one percent today and we could see Microsoft has not yet broken down below the weekly support around 221 but we are still making lower highs and lower lows and we're getting rejected around the 20 simple moving average on this weekly chart the equal egg bear Market could easily take us down to about 184 by the month of March which would be next year and then we could see a potential counter Trend rally if we do get to that level now Microsoft is tricky because we haven't yet broken down below support so the critical support remains 221 with the credit go resistance up here right around 255.
it does appear that Microsoft is trying to go lower but that will all change if we do get a bull breakout above 255 and break out of this downtrend you can also see in Microsoft we have a weekly breakdown below the support trend line we broke down below that level in September of this year and then successfully backtested that level as resistance just this month in December so there is a very clear bearish breakdown below support a retest of that level as resistance and yet again another rejection so it does look like Microsoft is trying to accelerate to the downside but it doesn't look like we will get down into the 180s until March of next year on this daily chart of Microsoft we can see we're in the same downtrending channel we broke down below the support trend line we broke to a new daily low below 240 and we are breaking down below support at 236 which is one of the last support levels before we fill the Gap at 228.
remember the weekly critical support is in the low 220s and the daily Gap fills around 228 so we will need to watch these critical support levels very closely but we can clearly see that Microsoft stock is still in a downtrend jumping over to Amazon stock we can see we were down 1.47 today and on the weekly chart we are breaking down to brand new weekly lows and we are currently sitting at prices we haven't seen since the March 2020 crash so we are definitely giving back the entire bull market of 2021 and 2020.
now if you continue to draw a horizontal line we can go all the way back to March prices of 2018 so if you were a Buy and Hold investor of Amazon stock you haven't made a single penny if your cost basis is from March of 2018. so this is more reason why sometimes you want to be a Trader and not an investor because you never know with individual stocks how long they can hold on to their gains so sometimes you're much better taking the bird in the hand and not giving back all of those profits so right now on Amazon stock you need to decide if these are levels you want to be an investor at if you're a long-term Bull on this stock it should be a no-brainer that if you're buying it at the lows of 2020 or the prices that were back here in 2000 2018 you are clearly getting a low price for this stock but that doesn't guarantee you're going to make a profit so at these levels you're looking for the next critical support at 79 and then below 79 we will be looking for 69 which takes us all the way back to the lows from December of 2018.
jumping over to Nvidia stock we're looking at a point six percent drop today and we can see on the weekly chart we are currently trading below the 20 simple moving average and we are losing the support zone right around 145. this is clearly looking like another bear Market resistance trendline rejection because we got up to the resistance trend line failed to get that breakout and seeing that three weeks of rejection which means Nvidia could be coming all the way back down towards 116.
I do think 116 is going to be very strong support so there is a good chance we can get another Bounce from that level but if we do break down we'll be looking for a retest of the low right around 110 to 111. you're looking for critical upside resistance at this point at 145 and the previous weekly high right around 170 and we we need to break out of this downtrend on the weekly chart to say that the bear Market is ending jumping over to Google stock we can see we were down 1.57 today and on the weekly chart we're right back down to extremely critical support which is right here at 86 dollars because if we lose this the next leg lower is likely going to be down here right around 76.
the critical bear Market resistance will be this previous high right around 100 and you can clearly see we're still below the bear Market resistance trend line on this weekly chart and still blow a very watch this extremely critical support at 86 because if we start breaking down below it we will be looking for that next bear Market leg lower which is easily going to take us another ten dollars lower and then lastly we have Facebook with the ticker meta which is clearly in an extremely strong bear Market because if we zoom out here and we just draw a horizontal line we can draw prices that go all the way back to 2016.
imagine owning this stock from 2016 and holding it this entire time and looking at your cost basis and seeing that you have made not a single dollar this is the risk you have with investing in individual names and we can see we did break down below the support trend line of the bull market from 2013 from the March 2020 lows and we broke down below that level in June of this year and clearly back tested that level as resistance and had that very sharp projection so we have definitely seen capitulation in meta we're coming back down to this very critical support Zone around 104 and so far it does appear as if that level is holding up but we're not out of the woods yet while we're below this in meta will be right around 125 and if we could break above 125 we could make another run back up towards 157.
the critical support zones will be 110 104 in the previous weekly low right around 89 and if we lose all of those levels there is no telling how much lower this stock is going to go if we go from all-time highs to where we currently are this stock is still down 70 percent so this is clearly full-blown capitulation and a lot of these stocks are losing their Market weight in the s p 500 because they have significantly dropped from their highs and they're starting to give market shares away to some of these other sectors like energy and Industrials so to pull this all together let's jump over to a weekly view of the NASDAQ 100 triple cues because a lot of these big tech companies are significantly weighted in this ETF as well as the S P 500 and we can see the NASDAQ 100 is coming back down to the October lows which was this very strong support right around 258 which was also the 61.8 retracement from the March 2020 lows so without a doubt this is going to be a very significant support because if we lose this support we could be going for the next leg lower down here at 222 or retest the high from February of 2020 which is right around 235 so there is clearly very very important support right here at 258 and I do consider this bouncer die support because if the Bulls do not hold this support we will very likely see a very high volume wave of selling which is more than likely going to be due to stocks like apple and Microsoft which are the last dominoes to fall in this bear market we've already seen stocks like Google Amazon meta and Tesla having significant declines so it would not be out of the question to say that apple and Microsoft could be doing the same just lagging behind so watch that extremely critical support on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues which is right there at 258 because that is going to be a very good indicator of whether or not we see a bounce from these levels or if we continue for that next leg lower in this bear Market keep in mind these big tech companies are a huge weight in the S P 500 and while that doesn't have to remain that way that is the current situation and that is why the S P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 have been significantly underperforming the Dow Jones the Dow Jones is doing relatively well all things considered so these big tech companies are the ones getting hurt the most which is obviously due to the fed's position and the way they're battling inflation by raising rates is clearly affecting these growth companies the most so manager risk very well and understand if you're buying these companies you need to be willing to hold them for the very long term under the assumption that you are buying low and at some point in the future looking out multiple years you are going to be able to sell much higher if you don't believe that then don't buy these stocks and always manage a risk even if you're an investor there could still be significant downside so I hope you all enjoyed this special update on these big tech companies and if you do please remember to smash that like button and if you want to come trade with us come check out if you're interested in joining the stock Shield Discord I also
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