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one of the most important investment opportunities of our lifetimes yes that is why Kathy Wood has just updated her Tesla stock price targeted to two thousand dollars per share for 2027. this is up from about fifteen hundred dollars per share for 2026. today's Tesla stock price drop Kathy would seize as a buying opportunity which is exactly how I see it too let's hear from Kathy Wood herself why is her Tesla stock price Target going up and what she thinks about these earnings so much to discuss with you but I do want to start with Tesla uh your reaction to those results we did get yesterday and specifically the fact that the operating margin dropped pretty dramatically to 11.4 percent certainly in focus for trading today does this change your outlook or your thesis around Tesla uh not at all in fact curiously um we want Tesla to scale its units uh because each one of them now represents the potential for a robo taxi and a robo taxi Fleet now Elon says it's possible that he could launch that that Fleet this year uh we think it's it's more like last year but the robo taxi Fleet is is really going to be or the robo taxi service is going to be um uh from a margin point of view more like a SAS business uh and so we think that that is very smart to maximize units uh because they have so much option value now Parkin was just updated everything about Tesla stock on their website and this is fascinating looking at this chart you can come to a conclusion that Ark invest believes there is a 100 chance that fossil driving is going to be solved before 2028 starts looking at last year's prediction they thought it would be 2029 they actually got more bullish I think that's partially because of Chad GPT being released and now Chad GPT if you don't know that you're texting with a computer and I told you hey look you're texting with a person here you may not even realize that you are texting with a computer these things are moving so fast and to think that this is not going to translate into full self-driving as well is absolutely absurd yeah I mean but but we've been hearing about the robo taxi Fleet for some time there's a lot of regulatory barriers to all of that and certainly technological barriers uh involved too so how soon can we actually see that realized and given the fact that you tweeted earlier today that you've got a a new evaluation assessment of Tesla coming out how does that how does that fit into your price target for the stock going forward uh well uh the price target for our stock and I think it's just hitting now uh for 2027 because we do have a five-year uh investment time Horizon is uh our expected value is roughly uh two thousand dollars and that's within a range of fourteen hundred to twenty five hundred dollars our bear and uh and bull case even some Tesla stock bulls will look at this and say whoa that bear case is a bit bullish already I mean 10 million deliveries in the bear case that's quite a bit I repeat that's the bare case not the base case not the bull case the bear case let's play around with the numbers here a little bit let's assume that Tesla hits their official Target of 1.8 million deliveries this year and then gross 50 year over year in 24 we got 2.7 25 4 million deliveries 26 6 million and 27 9 million in the bear case Arc invest is predicting that Tesla will actually grow faster than the 50 year-over-year growth Target that Tesla is officially guiding for and primarily I think that is because of full self-driving and they have a lot of other interesting things here as well for example the average selling price actually makes sense to me a lot of Wall Street guys think that Tesla will keep selling vehicles at 50 000 per vehicle on average that is insane but then at the same time they only think that Tesla will deliver about less than 7 million vehicles in the year of 20 30.
that is also ridiculous so under these circumstances it sort of makes sense but when you understand what Tesla is actually trying to accomplish and what's the mission if you know these things you know what hassle is not trying to just sell expensive Vehicles Tesla wants to be a mass Market brand you look at the gross margins for example 51 in the bear case in 2022 Tesla had a gross margin of 26 percent one big reason why I continue being so bullish on Tesla style because I believe that Tesla will solve full self-driving when it happens assuming it does it doesn't matter what the margins were in 2023 Q2 Q3 Q4 it's completely irrelevant what will matter then is how fast can you make more vehicles that you can put on the road and use these vehicles as robot axes that will be really the only thing that will matter now just Morgan on the regulatory side I actually think regulations are working in Tesla's favor for I think roughly three decades the number of Auto fatalities in the United States fell fell to the low 30 000 range per year and they've turned around in the last five years and moved up to 45 000 plus and I think the pressure is on the national highway and Transportation safety Association to change something so it is looking carefully at Tesla's data and in and during investor day Tesla released some data that we don't think many people paid enough attention to the most important one is that wolf with full self-driving a Tesla vehicle gets into an accident every uh 3.2 million miles and that compares to one every 500 000 miles for the average car on the road yathi is talking about these numbers and I drive a model three and I test it with full self driving I have to say from my personal experience I know exactly where it is just not going to function as well as it should and do I just let the car disengage by itself I am not doing that especially if I have people with me in the car too stressful too much hassle I just disengage drive past that part which by the way with every update there are fewer and fewer and fewer Parts in the city like that is getting better very substantially better but there are still places there in just doesn't really work well I don't even want to try to bother if I then prove a place 10 times and each time it failed in that place I'm not going to try on the next time unless there's a new update when there's a new update I just try to go through all of the places and then I see okay yeah these places yeah I'm still going to take over so that data I wouldn't really say it's clean data it's something to pay attention to and it's certainly impressive and great to see if it was the opposite and if this number was worse then average people driving in average vehicles that would be very bad but this is good and it's encouraging and now everyone has fizzy beta so only people with perfect safety scores having access stuff as D beta is no longer a reason for oh yeah that's why these crashes happen so rarely you can't use that reason anymore for now maybe you still can but just give it a few more months and you will have this data set overwhelmed with people with questionable safety scores so you won't be able to use that argument a few months from now really anymore and I personally find that using FSD in a parking lot I'm not going to attend that for now and that's where a good number of crashes happen as well so I'm not sure if that's included in the data or not but I'm definitely not using FSD in a parking lot no no no no no no so I think the main reason why this data looks so good is because you simply just do not engage FSD when you are driving through some of the toughest spots in the city although I am driving through more and more of these spots with FSD on especially with the latest update which is a nice Improvement by the way I just want to clarify did you say a 2 000 per share price Target Tesla right now is under 200 a share so even if you were to 10x that that would be an over 5 trillion dollar market cap is that what you're saying that is what we're saying uh we think that the robo taxi opportunity globally uh will um deliver eight to ten trillion dollars in Revenue by 2030 and uh is one of the most important investment opportunities of our lifetimes okay and and I think one of the reasons for that is it is going to save lives uh 80 to 90 percent of Auto fatalities and auto accidents are caused by human error and uh Auto autonomous driving is going to take away the human error We Believe although this will be replaced with computer error but that will happen a lot less often one thing that I absolutely love about driving on FSD is when I turn right on a red light here in Vancouver if you're from Europe yes and U.S and Canada you can actually try turn right on a red light which you cannot really do in most of European countries and I have also driving on and over here we also have a lot of bicycles so not only do you how to look our cars coming but you also have to look behind you and see if any bicycles just popped out of nowhere because they do pop out out of nowhere and you have to be very careful the photo driving I find it double checks everything and it just makes it everything a little bit easier less stressful and it makes that turn fast it turns fast that's one reason why I don't like using it in parking lots actually because it went way too fast the last time I used it oh there are cars parked everywhere what if one of them just starts driving which sometimes happens and yeah that was a little bit scary I was not expecting that but when you are going through an intercession if you turn quickly I think that's okay but in the parking lot and this is an important message to all Tesla stock investors my name is Matt posius
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