저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리(Michael Burry)는 2008년 금융위기 때처럼 현재도 패시브 투자(인덱스 펀드)가 주가와 채권 가격을 부풀리는 거품 상태라고 보며, 버블은 길어질수록 붕괴 충격이 커진다고 경고한다. 2008년 위기의 원인으로 탐욕, 이해 부족, 거품, 거품 붕괴의 네 단계를 제시하고, 같은 구조가 현재 인덱스 펀드 투자에서 반복되고 있다고 주장한다. 인덱스 펀드 투자자들은 개별 종목의 가치를 분석하지 않고 서로 따라 투자하며, 이것이 주가 상승과 거품을 키운다고 설명한다. 버리는 거품 붕괴 시 패시브 자금 유출이 불쾌한 결과를 낳을 것이라고 본다. 그러나 개별 종목 기회는 여전히 있다고 한다. 기회로 제시된 것은 소형주다. 인덱스 펀드가 대형주에 자금을 몰아 대형주 가격은 치솟는 반면 소형주는 상대적으로 소외되어 있다는 논리다. 버리는 시가총액 약 2억 달러대의 Sportsman's Warehouse, 약 2억 5천만 달러 규모의 Tailored Brands 등 10억 달러 미만 소형주를 보유 중이라고 밝힌다. 두 번째 기회는 일본 시장이다. 저PER, 저FCF 배수 등 과소평가된 기업이 많고, 현금 보유액이 주가의 상당 부분을 차지하는 기업도 흔하다고 주장한다. 반도체 디스플레이 및 관련 산업 조정으로 일본 소형주(Tazmo, Nippon Pillar 등)가 크게 하락했으며, 기술 부품주 재고 소진과 성장 재개 시 섹터 베타가 높게 반등할 것으로 예상한다고 언급한다. 결론적으로 버리는 현재 시장을 거품으로 보면서도, 소형주와 일본 시장에서 개별 종목 기회를 찾을 수 있다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
One of the most famous investment movies of all time is called "The Great Depression." For those who haven't seen it, here's what happens : there's a guy named Michael Burr who predicted the stock market crash in 2008. He sells stocks at a discount and makes a lot of money. Why am I telling you this?
Because the same guy, Michael Burr, believes that we are in a similar situation to 2008 and that there is a high probability of a stock market crash. That's what he said. He said passive investments are inflating stock and bond prices in much the same way that CDOSs inflated subprime mortgage prices more than 10 years ago.
As with most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be. Okay, first I want to look at the situation in 2008. What caused this stock market crash? Then I'll show you how it's very similar to the time we're living in now, at the end of 2019. And finally, we will look at where the opportunities are in today's market ?
Because regardless of market conditions, there is always an opportunity to make money. So what was happening in 2008 and how does it compare to what is happening today, in late 2019? Essentially, there are four key parallels. It is very important to pay attention to these four key parallels. Good. In 2008, there was originally something called houses.
I'm sure you know what a house is. These are things that people live in. To buy a house, most people have to borrow money. This is called getting a mortgage. And yes, you usually get a mortgage from a bank. And banks rate these mortgages, these loans, based on their riskiness. AAA is the least risky, and further down the alphabet is the riskier.
They then sell these loans to other investors. But this is where the first part of things begins. The same thing that happened in 2008 is happening now, and it's called greed. Banks became greedy and started giving loans to practically anyone who wanted them and selling them to investors who were also greedy and wanted high interest rates.
But here is the second important parallel, namely the lack of understanding. OK. You see, the investors who bought these subprime mortgages didn't really understand the value and risk of what they were getting into. So they used their emotions. They saw high interest rates and became greedy, but they didn't understand the value of what they were getting into.
So what did all this mean? Well, that meant that practically anyone who wanted to get a loan and buy a house could buy one. How has this affected housing prices? You don't have to be a genius to understand this. This created a bubble, and that's the third key thing that happens. And the fourth key thing, what happens to all the bubbles?
They are bursting. So, it all started with greed combined with a lack of understanding. This caused a bubble . And what a surprise that this bubble burst. But how does this relate to what's happening in today's stock market? So basically, what we've had over the last 10 years is a huge bull market. The stock rose almost 300%.
And you know, one of the factors that has caused this market to grow so significantly is something called passive investing. Investing in things like index funds. As Michael Burr pointed out, trillions of dollars of assets in the world are indexed to stocks. And so more and more people are investing in index funds, and they're starting to get greedy.
They see their investments growing , so they buy more. And everyone around is doing the same . None of them really understand the value of the stocks they are buying because they are all in index funds. This is a group of shares. You don't analyze individual stocks. So you have the first principle that makes them greedy.
But this also goes hand in hand with the second principle – lack of understanding. This is a very bad combination. And, essentially, what happens when these two things meet, greed and lack of understanding, is a bubble starts to form . I'll take you back to what Michael Burr said earlier. This is very important.
Passive investments inflate the prices of stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDOS inflated the prices of subprime mortgages over 10 years ago. He says that, as with most bubbles, the longer this goes on, the worse the crash will be. So, at this point we have reached three stages similar to 2008.
We just have n't had such an explosion yet. But, you see, the key to today's bubble is something called index funds. And I just want to explain this in a little more detail. What is an index fund? Index funds are mutual funds designed to track the performance of a market index. An index is a group of stocks that represents a specific market segment or the market as a whole.
So you can get an index fund that tracks the Chinese market. You can get one that tracks the US market or one that tracks US dividend stocks. One of the most well-known index funds is called the S&P 500. It's essentially just 500 very large companies in the United States, and it essentially tracks the entire U.S.
market. But the problem with index funds is that they are a group of individual stocks, not just individual stocks. Why is this a problem? Ha? Well, because index fund investors don't understand the value of each share in that fund. They simply invest their money in the fund as a whole. And Buri, in the next quote that I'll show you, explains why this is a big problem.
He says this is very similar to the bubble of asset-backed synthetic CDOS before the Great Financial Crisis, when pricing in that market was not driven by fundamental security-level analysis . Good. So they weren't analyzing individual stocks, but what was underlying massive capital flows, based on unapproved risk models that turned out to be false.
Simply put, investors don't understand the true value of what they are investing in. And if you have investors all over the world investing this way, they all copy each other. They see the price of funds rising. They continue to invest. This leads to an increase in stock prices. This causes a bubble.
One day this bubble will burst. And that's why Michael Bury says that when the massive inflow of funds into passive instruments changes, it will be unpleasant. Okay, I don't want to leave you guys in a bad mood. Now we need to talk about where the opportunities are in this stock market today? So where is Michael Baer, the guy who seems to be making money in every market where he sees opportunity these days?
Essentially, there are two key things I want to discuss. First, these are stocks of small-cap companies . Bury said there is great value in the area of technology and technological components . He says, “I am a firm believer in the continued growth of remote and virtual technologies.” And you may ask, why are small-cap stocks more valuable than large- cap stocks?
Well, that's a very simple question. Again, this is related to index funds. You see, index funds tend to focus on the largest companies in the market. For example, the S& P 500 is 500 very large American companies. And since everyone is investing in large companies through index funds, it is obvious that their price is skyrocketing.
However, when it comes to price, it leaves smaller- cap companies behind. And that's why there are opportunities here. And you know, Michael Boor owns several small- cap companies with a total value of less than $1 billion . He owns shares in Sportsman Warehouse, a retailer of outdoor sporting goods .
Market capitalization is just over 200 million. He owns Tailored Brand Stock, a men's clothing store. The total cost is about 250 million. And I know some of you might be thinking, "Oh, these aren't small-cap companies. " But yes, if you look at the definition, they actually belong to small-cap companies compared to well- known companies like Apple and Google.
They just don't compare in size. So that's the first opportunity that Michael Boor sees in today's market, small- cap companies that offer value and also offer lower prices. The next big opportunity available to investors, and I would be remiss if I didn't mention it, is the Japanese market. There are many undervalued companies in Japan.
Buri says it's not hard to find extremely undervalued companies in Japan , with low earnings multiples or low free cash flow multiples. In many cases, a company may have significant cash or stock holdings that make up a significant portion of the stock price. So in many Japanese companies, cash alone makes up almost the entire share price.
This is madness. And you will never find anything like it in the US. Uh , if we knew, it would be extremely rare. Uh, if you want to know some specific areas to look into more deeply, you could, if you wanted to look deeper into the packaging of Tasmo and Nippon columns, Buri says this. He says: “Global corrections in the semiconductor display industry and related industries have hit the shares of related smaller Japanese companies extremely hard.
I expect companies like Tasmo and Nippon Pillar (which is part of another of my holdings) to rebound with high beta for the sector as technology component stocks are depleted and growth resumes. So these are some opportunities for deeper study and analysis. Anyway, I want to summarize this just for you guys.
Some bad things happened in 2008. Banks and investors became greedy for loans. There was a lack of understanding of the value of these loans. A bubble appeared in the market, and then it burst. It seems like the same thing is happening today. Investors passively and greedily invest in index funds without truly understanding the value of the stocks they contain.
At least, blurry believes we are in a bubble in today's market that could burst. But there are still opportunities for certain individual stocks, especially when it comes to the small-cap market, and for those interested, the Japanese market as well. Because in any market there are always ways to make money."
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