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ray dalio is probably so embarrassed right now just flip-flopping on his bitcoin stance just kidding you know nothing humiliates ray dalio especially after he's been bent over by the ccp day after day going from bears to bullish on bitcoin no problem but don't worry guys i will not rant about the ccp in this video like i do in almost every video because the point of this video is to go over dalio's changing stance on bitcoin he's a big hater of it but now he's starting to warm up so we're gonna analyze that and what it means for the cryptocurrency space in general because things are way different today than they were just three years ago in 2017 with the big bubble and that's why all of us as investors really need to take a second look at bitcoin and really think about investing in it i definitely am myself and i'll explain how i'm approaching it later in this video and even if you're not investing in bitcoin it's important because these cryptocurrencies will eventually become a part of our everyday life and they won't be just a joke anymore because that's pretty much what they were when you're thinking about how do i pay for something in bitcoin so bitcoin is moving from just this big thing that people gamble on to a real currency that people will use every day and we're going to talk about that more in a second too so going back to big daddy dalio here he was really against bitcoin over the years he was the one who branded bitcoin a bubble in 2017 real vocal about it and you guys probably remember what happened in 2017 and almost 2018 here we had that huge run-up in bitcoin went up over a thousand percent over 1200 percent in less than a year and then it collapsed so it went from the highs in late 2017 and it dropped over 85 percent and even if you weren't tracking the price back then you kind of knew it was a bubble because every time you jumped into an uber the driver started talking to you about bitcoin and how great it is and if you're invested you could bump into someone in the street and they turn around and say hey have you heard about bitcoin not even a sorry just talking about bitcoin it was such an annoying time and that's kind of when you know it was a bubble so dalia was right it was a bubble back then and he has some good reasons for why he doesn't like bitcoin and why was it bubble then and why he's not so sure about it right now he says that bitcoin is not an effective storehold of wealth because it has volatility to it unlike gold and dalio loves gold so he gets a little offended when people start comparing bitcoin to gold but for money he's saying there's two purposes they have to work as a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth but bitcoin is not effective in either of those cases right now and when he's talking about money he's really talking about any currency it's like why the dollar works or the euro works because it checks off these two boxes a medium exchange and a storehold of wealth he even had a twitter thread about this recently he said i might be missing something about bitcoin so i'd love to be corrected but my problems with it bitcoin being an effective currency are simple one bitcoin is not very good as a medium of exchange because you can't buy much with it i presume that's because it's too volatile for merchants to use but correct me if i'm wrong and no dalio is not wrong about it not being a great medium exchange especially right now because if the price is fluctuating all the time it's really tough to exchange it because you might give someone a bitcoin thinking it's worth this much of money but then by the time you give it to them it's only worth this much much lower so it becomes a problem because it's so volatile the price and i mean can you imagine going to a grocery store and trying to transact in bitcoin can you imagine the counter person having to do those currency transactions and locking in a price i mean the whole store will shut down for at least 20 minutes when the stupid receipt printer runs out of ink you think they can do that we can't have currency translations going on in a system where i'm still getting a paper receipt what is the point the person hands me the receipt and i hand it directly to the trash can why do we still play this game you know the only person who keeps receipts my dad and he's been keeping them for years he has so many receipts that we have a whole room in the house dedicated to just receipts that is a man who lives in proper fear of the irs and what's even worse than us still getting receipts for these small transactions is actually having to sign a receipt still in 2020 oh you bought 1.79 packet of gum i'm gonna need to verify that purchase please sign here and even with this incredible security somehow my credit card was just stolen last week someone charged it for an 800 studio session in la which was extra hurtful for me because if anybody's gonna make a fire mixtape with my money it's gonna be me and i'm talking to the credit card company like oh that impenetrable security of signing a receipt didn't work how could they have possibly gotten around it and for that reason is why bitcoin is not a good medium of exchange another problem is that it's not a very good storehold of wealth because once again it's too volatile and it has little correlation with the prices of what i need to buy so owning it doesn't protect my buying power and yeah it is in the best storehold of wealth because you know if we're basing wealth off bitcoin we're gonna have to change the stupid forbes list every day including those wikipedia entries people's net worths are gonna be all over the place if they got their money in bitcoin and three he said if it becomes successful enough to compete and be threatening enough to currencies that governments control then the governments will outlaw it and make it dangerous to use and he had and he's talked about that a little more in other interviews he said governments will use whatever teeth they have to enforce that they would say okay you can't transact with bitcoin you can't have a bitcoin so then you have to sort of almost be like hey okay it's a felony and am i gonna have to be a felon in order to transact with bitcoin so dalio's saying that he doesn't think digital currencies will succeed in the way that people hope they would now this might sound crazy the government banning bitcoin but they actually do it they even banned gold at one point and dalio more than anyone else no matter how you feel about him he knows his stuff when it comes to currency regimes you know we've done a ton of videos covering his research on that and these are the same cycles that happen with every empire so when he says the u.s could ban bitcoin it's very possible even though it sounds crazy to us like you need to look at the history and see what governments do they usually end up screwing their citizens and then the empire falls but one of the ways they do that is with currency control because no matter what the government wants to maintain their power and one of their most important tools to do that is the currency being able to print money huge huge power which you already know and when it comes to governments having power over the people you know dalio is getting it day in and day out from the ccp he knows very well what the real world is like i actually feel bad for him they definitely have some leverage and they're making him into their puppet but okay no ccp rants like i said now of course not everyone agrees with dalio when he says the government can ban it like those twinkle toe twins they you know they're big in bitcoin they said the governments could try to ban bitcoin but they can't stop it i guess you know i guess that is true sort of i mean we would have to see what happens raoul paul the ceo of real vision he said capital control anywhere have never worked and gold has always worked bitcoin will be the same and rao paul he is so long bitcoin right now he's a super super bowl so you can see dalio has a lot of thought behind why bitcoin is not good and why he doesn't like it but lately he's actually softened his stance a little bit so in his reddit ama he described this he said i think that bitcoin and some other digital currencies have over the last 10 years established themselves as interesting gold-like asset alternatives wow big change right there right with similarities and differences to gold and other limited supply mobile unlike real estate store holes of wealth so it could serve as a diversifier to gold and other such store holes of wealth assets the main thing is to have some of these types of assets with limited supply that are mobile and that our store holds a wealth including stocks in one's portfolio and to diversify among them not enough people do that as far as bitcoin relative to gold i have a strong preference for holding those things which central banks are going to want to hold and exchange value in when they are trying to transact and he says something similar in his tweet too he said unlike gold which is the third highest reserve assets that central banks own i can't imagine central banks big institutional investors businesses or multinational companies using bitcoin if i'm wrong i would love to be corrected so he's saying okay bitcoin is coming up it's becoming more stable it is an alternative to gold somewhat though but gold is still going to be better because gold is what all these governments still use even when they move to their fiat currencies like dollars euros yen whatever they are gold has always worked and he's saying that it's going to continue to work because it's what all these banks hold to it's what they want it's still valuable to that where he's saying bitcoin isn't valuable to a central bank so he is softening up on his bearish bitcoin position but at the same time you know he's still sticking to his guns a bit too and even when he says he has a hard time imagining that big institutional investors would invest well we already know that the institutions are coming in right now that's one of the big differences which we'll talk about in a little bit but for example this u.s business intelligence firm microstrategy has increased its bitcoin holdings to over 1 billion and massachusetts mutual life insurance has bought 100 million of bitcoin for its general investment account this is an insurance company this is a whale wall street legend bill miller said he strongly recommends bitcoin billionaire and legend stan druckenmiller says he's warmed up to the cryptocurrency as a store of value so things are changing so again you can see there's good points on both sides right whether bitcoin is good or not and whether it's gonna survive so what does that mean for how we invest because that's important right who cares about debating if we're not making money so in my opinion i think now is a much better time to invest in bitcoin than it was in 2017.
and the reason why is because of the big difference between then and now are these institutions that are coming in they are making this way more legit because back in 2017 it was like a bunch of uber drivers you know just you and me doing stuff and that doesn't matter because we're too small for any trend or any asset to become big and to become stable you need the big institutions behind it because you and me sadly as retail investors we don't matter you need banks and pension funds insurance companies you need those guys they are the big money they are the whales and the whales create the waves that the rest of us guppies ride on and i know whales don't actually create waves but you know this is an animal planet so it's important to remember in investing when you're trying to follow a trend which you know is exactly what i do i'm all about momentum and following that strategy and you know where the momentum in stocks comes from it comes from this big institutional money flooding in again they're the whales and here's us just guppies which is just you know actually a more ugly fish than i thought but then again do you know many good looking fish might know some fish with some good bodies like tropical fish oh very pretty but when it comes to a fish's face it's always ugly look at this busted terrible just busted busted once again all fish are just pretty much ugly but what was i saying that whales right the institutions they make the trend and even more than that they really stabilize something so when we look at bitcoin back in 2017 it was way more volatile because a bunch of retail guppies like us were just pulling in and out but institutions when they invest they just stick in it they love to just marinate in it they're in it for the long haul they are too big so they don't just pull out they're in it for like the full nine months they're going to create that little trend you know let it bake in the oven and then birth that trend like a beautiful little baby and then that baby will grow into a beautiful adult trend unlike the fish and that's the benefit of these institutions sticking in it never pulling out like these retail traders and hopefully there's unnecessarily crass metaphors making sense but you don't want to see this type of action in the price again dropping what over 85 so quickly you want to see some support so you know the bitcoin trend right now as of recording this video it is hot and eventually it'll turn around or consolidate a bit but when it does that you don't want to see it collapse you want to see it go say sideways like this period right here and that only happens when there are strong hands in the stock or the asset whatever you're looking at weak hands are like the retail traders when something goes wrong they're out of it because they're small they can get in and out strong hands are the institutional people they're not just gonna sell right there's too much money billions and billions of dollars you can't just get in and out of positions and that's what puts the support in the stock or the bitcoin or whatever asset you're looking at and i probably should have used the strong hand versus weekend metaphor instead of this sticking in and pulling out but whatever now when it comes to bitcoin i'll tell you right now i don't really move outside of stocks with my investments because i don't invest in anything that i don't have a full strategy around and i know you guys hear me harp about this all the time and it's so boring oh ak old ak just sticking to his strategy all the time never does anything different but hey it works i'm not trying to do anything fancy with my money or anything flashy i'm just trying to make more of it so i know when i have a strategy that works really well in stocks i'm gonna stick to that strategy and hit it day in and day out which is why i usually don't care about something like bitcoin or diversification which they talk about all the time right especially on youtube like don't just be in stocks be in real estate and bitcoin and have six passive income flows go deliver food for a meal delivery service make a little extra cash that way all this stupid advice and i'm so tired of finance youtube maybe i'll make another video ranting about that but it's just stupid just shut up because realistically what you need to do is focus on one thing get that strategy around it and especially when it's something like the stock market you're going to be diversified enough you don't need more than stocks you don't need real estate and everything else not saying you shouldn't do it but the problem is is that people get too spread out and they don't know what they're doing anywhere so i rather focus on one thing and stocks do give you a lot of diversification if that's what you're looking for that being said though as i grow older and i collect more assets i do feel more comfortable investing small amounts in something else so for bitcoin i decided i'm going to invest five percent of my net worth in it and i know five percent doesn't sound like a lot especially with all the talking that i've done in this video but for me it's a good amount especially when i don't have a specific strategy around bitcoin what i'm going to be doing with it is buying and holding and that's why all the rest of my money is in the stock market where i have strict risk control and a really good edge to actually grow it very fast where with bitcoin i'm just putting money in and holding it that's why it's only that small five percent but like i said that is a decent chunk of money especially over time so on the end i'm kind of more on dalio's side and what he said on reddit like bitcoin can serve as a diversifier to gold and a storehold of wealth because it is becoming more stable but we also got to be careful because the things that he's saying about the government i do truly believe and also gold is something that's been around forever and it's going to continue to hold strong value and this point that he makes about central banks very true that's what they look at that has value so something outside of that and their own dollars they might try to get their hands on or they might try to ban so when we look historically right if we're saying bitcoin is kind of like gold gold is way more robust in my opinion especially with the fact that it's not technology based it's just a piece of gold that you could hold and carry so all that being considered i think yes five percent of my net worth let's put it in bitcoin now here's the thing if you are trading bitcoin can be super lucrative as well as these other cryptocurrency markets because they are newer markets and trends just work way better and technical analysis works way better so i'm not saying don't trade bitcoin if you have a strategy because at the end of the day i always say go back to your strategy and i may eventually have a strategy to trade bitcoin but i don't right now and i'm happy with stocks but if you do have that strategy go for it but it's going to be volatile it's a lot less volatile than it was in 2017 but it's still not fully stable because adoption is still happening by the bigger institutions which we've already explained with the fish and pull out but to deal with all that volatility in bitcoin and really anything you're trading you do need one key characteristic which warren buffett talks about and we have a video of him explaining what he means right here definitely watch that video because every trader or investor needs this characteristic to be successful in the stock market again the video is right here click it and i will see you there
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