Why Ray Dalio Is Betting That Bitcoin Will Fail 🔥

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결론: 레이 달리오(브리지워터) 리서치 인용 영상으로, 비트코인은 '장기 옵션'에 가까운 고위험 자산이며 현재로선 가치저장 수단으로 보기 어렵다는 취지다. 달리오는 비트코인이 투기적 아이디어에서 장기 존속 가능성이 높은 자산으로 넘어왔다고 평가하며 기술적 성취는 인정한다. 공급 측면: 총 2,100만 개로 공급이 제한되어 법정화폐처럼 중앙은행이 찍어낼 수 없고, 저금리로 수익률 자산이 사라진 환경에서 상대적 매력이 있다고 본다. 리스크 측면: 다른 암호화폐 경쟁, 사이버 공격 취약성(사이버 공격 능력이 방어보다 우위), 정부의 규제·퇴출 시도 가능성을 지적한다. 성공할수록 정부 통제 위협이 커진다는 논리다. 가치저장 수단 평가: 변동성이 극심하고, 규제 불확실성과 유동성·인프라 한계가 있어 현재는 가치저장 수단이라 보기 어렵다고 결론짓는다. 금과 달리 분산투자 효과도 아직 검증되지 않았다. 거래 회전율이 금보다 훨씬 높아 투기적 성격이 강하며, 자산 버블의 전형적 징후(미래 급등 할인, 강세 심리, 레버리지 증가)가 보인다고 평가한다. 규제 측면: 유럽중앙은행 총재와 옐런 재무장관의 자금세탁·테러자금 우려를 언급하며, 규제 강화 또는 신뢰 확보 두 경로 모두 큰 변동성이 예상된다. 진행자 개인 의견: 순자산의 5%만 비트코인·이더리움에 투자하며, 잃어도 감당 가능한 수준으로 제한한다고 밝힌다. 달리오는 순자산의 약 80%를 잃을 수도 있는 금액 이상은 넣지 말라는 취지로 말한다. 영상은 투자 리스크 관리가 핵심이라며 별도 영상을 홍보한다.

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01. is bitcoin an overhyped bubble destined to fail well that's what we're going to talk about today because a lot of critics say it is now even if you're a huge bitcoin bull this video is still important to watch because it pays to test your assumptions in the market you got to look at the other side just in case you're missing something because if you are then obviously you want to correct your position so that you can continue to make money because that's the point of this right so in this video we're going to go over the bear case for bitcoin and then of course what you should do with your investments and money now one person's opinion who i love hearing about bitcoin is ray dalio he runs one of the biggest and most successful hedge funds called bridgewater now his views on bitcoin are backed by the best global macro historical research in the world so he has a very balanced view and you can see recently at bridgewater his whole team published their thoughts on bitcoin because he's been in the news a lot talking about bitcoin and things have been misconstrued so he wanted to set the record straight so we're going to jump into his research because like i said he gives the most balanced view so you could really see why people think there is a strong bear case for bitcoin first off he says he thinks bitcoin is awesome so before anyone could come at him with the pitchforks like they already have he just wants to make that clear to have invented a new type of money via a system that is programmed into a computer and that has worked for around 10 years now and which is rapidly gaining popularity as both the type of money and a storehold of wealth is an amazing accomplishment and yes i think there is no denying that bitcoin is absolutely incredible and the blockchain everything awesome and he's saying all this right before he hits you with the butt he continues on to say that they've done a great job of moving bitcoin into an alternative gold-like asset and there aren't many gold-like assets during this time when there's a rising need for them because of all the debt in the world and all these governments just printing money like crazy so there's a growing need for things like bitcoin that are a storehold of wealth and that are in limited supply and there's also a need for assets that can be privately held now whether bitcoin fully meets that criteria well that's what we're going to talk about in a second dalio says that it seems that bitcoin has succeeded in crossing the line from being a highly speculative idea that could well not be around in short order to probably being around and probably having some value in the future oh so positive so he's saying no digital currencies like bitcoin are not a fad the community has succeeded in making it a real thing now since the supply of bitcoin is known one has to estimate the demand to estimate its price so now what he's talking about here is that there are a finite number of bitcoins right that's the whole point you can't just keep printing them like regular money so the supply is kind of set but even though that supply is set he wants to clarify because even though bitcoin is limited in supply other digital currencies can sprout up so digital currencies in general are not limited in supply there are going to be more that come that compete with bitcoin and that competition will play a role in determining the price of bitcoin and those other cryptocurrencies and since the way bitcoin works is that it's fixed and it won't be able to evolve he assumes that a better alternative will be invented and eventually pass it by and that is kind of a risk if you're trying to invest all in bitcoin so when you look at the limited supply argument that a lot of bitcoin bulls use you got to remember that a limited supply isn't everything think back to blackberries they were in limited supply and they still became worthless because competitors were just better so he's basically saying you can't look at bitcoin as the be all end-all because there will be other cryptocurrencies that compete and they might take over so that right there is one risk next dalio talks about the technology and how it hasn't been hacked yet which is great but he also says that cyber offense is much more powerful than cyber defense right now and the risk of getting hacked that cyber risk is something he can't ignore that's another danger of this so when the department of defense can't protect its systems from being hacked if you've heard about that in the news you can't be totally comfortable that digital assets won't be hacked and that's one of the benefits of something like gold if you hold it you hold it you know unless someone comes and takes it from you with a gun and that's compared to any of these cyber currencies or even you know our current economy when it's all digitized dalio thinks they're going to be shown more vulnerable to disruption and or to cyber blackmail than is now recognized meaning he thinks something is coming in the future which is gonna shake our foundational system how everything is just numbers now going back and forth over the internet there's gonna be a big hack in the future now of course bitcoin can be held offline via cold storage but dalio says that he understands it it's very difficult to do and very few people actually do it so by and large his understanding is that bitcoin being digital and connected is not protected against cyber risks he looks forward to that being fixed hopefully in the future but right now no next you gotta ask because bitcoin is digital how private is it really and will the government even allow it and regarding privacy it looks like bitcoin will unlikely be as private as some people think it will because everything's on a blockchain ledger right so the government and or hackers could look at that at any time they wanted and if the government wanted to get rid of bitcoin then most of the people using it wouldn't be able to use it anymore and the demand would plunge so that would destroy the price and we'll talk about this more in a minute here but there's a lot of arguments that says it doesn't matter what the government wants to do because the people want bitcoin and it's created by the people you don't need these institutions well that's not exactly how it's worked out in history but again we'll talk about that more in detail in a few minutes what dalio says is the more successful that bitcoin becomes the more likely this possibility is of the government trying to shut it down and why is that well obviously because the government loves power and one of the biggest powers you could have is control over a currency where you could print it and do what you want with it which if bitcoin is the main thing then they lose that power right so it's hard for dalio to imagine that they would allow bitcoin or even gold to be an obviously better choice than the money and credit that they are producing again this money credit printing this all financial engineering really when it comes down to it there's a lot of power in that a lot of freedom and flexibility he suspects the bitcoin's biggest risk is being successful because if it's successful the government will try to kill it and they have a lot of power to succeed in doing that so those are dalio's general views on bitcoin but beyond that he has a whole team of the smartest people in the world working at his fund researching this stuff running analysis on it so now he has this team and his research take over and this part is a look at the path for bitcoin if it is to become an alternative storehold of wealth because this is the big question here can it be a real storehold of wealth with what it is you'll see there's some benefits but also some drawbacks so their research conclusion was that for now we do not see bitcoin as a viable storehold of wealth and that's mainly due to a high degree of volatility regulatory uncertainty and operational constraints really they see it like buying an option on potential digital gold it has a wide cone of outcomes with one path leading to it becoming a true intrinsically accepted alternative storehold of wealth so what they're saying is is that because of the way bitcoin is structured there's a ton of uncertainty about whether it will actually survive that's what they mean by a wide cone of probabilistic outcomes this could happen this could happen or this can happen so if you're betting on bitcoin right now going all in then you're betting on one particular situation happening which can happen but you know there's not a huge probability of it either now of course bitcoin does have some of the characteristics to make it a storehold of wealth similar to gold it can't be devalued by a central bank printing which we talked about and the total supply is limited it's also easily portable and exchangeable globally especially for individuals and we'll see more about that in a second and it also has the potential to provide diversification though this is more theoretical than realized at this point so at the same time they have some benefits to become a good storeholder wealth they also have those drawbacks one being that it's extremely volatile the future purchasing power of bitcoin remains fundamentally speculative way more volatile compared to other things such as gold real estate or fiat currencies bitcoin also has a lot of meaningful regulatory tail risks and that's what we're talking about with the government and then the current level of liquidity in bitcoin is not high enough for real investors like institutions so let's dive into these points a little further so the first thing we know about bitcoin at benefit is that similar to gold it offers a stable and limited issuance that cannot be devalued by central bank printing so bitcoin has a hard-coded total supply of 21 million bitcoins and that issuance rate automatically halves every few years you can see right here it kind of gives you an example of gold the blue line versus bitcoin the red line so 90 of the total bitcoin supply which is 21 million coins has already been mined and the mining rate will continue to slow just like it has in the beginning you can see it's dropped off a lot because most of the bitcoins are mined already and it'll slow to the point that that total will actually never be reached so this is a benefit right a finite supply so it can't be devalued another thing going for bitcoin is that even though it doesn't pay a yield it doesn't actually matter because yields on other assets have collapsed and that you can see right here look at the us real yield it's just going negative and the percent of global debt yielding below one percent continues to climb meaning you put your money in the bank you aren't getting a return anymore you buy bonds you aren't getting a return anymore interest rates are so low that none of these assets are doing anything for anyone which makes bitcoin more attractive even though it doesn't have any yield doesn't have an interest rate that you get paid on doesn't matter another benefit of bitcoin is that it is accessible and easily portable which is important for a storehold of wealth if you can't actually move that wealth around and you can't use it then what's the point so compared to some other traditional store holes of wealth such as gold art and real estate bitcoin is much more easily exchangeable and actually given its digital nature bitcoin might be the most portable storehold of wealth much more so than physical cash even you can see this chart right here of the countries with bitcoin atms and this is important because you need to be able to use it everywhere right and now over 80 countries have at least one bitcoin atm so this is becoming a bigger and bigger thing which is once again important because you got to be able to move that wealth now one thing that remains unclear is whether bitcoin will provide diversification when portfolios need it the most because it's only been in existence for a decade there's not enough evidence to credibly conclude that bitcoin like gold will reliably offer portfolio diversification in the future because what's one of the big reasons that people buy gold and art and real estate is to diversify their portfolio which includes things like stocks so if you have all these different asset classes you don't want them too correlated you don't want them moving together so in case one asset class is dropping the other one is going up or at least staying stable that's the type of diversification that you want and it's actually something that bridgewater specializes in you can see here a chart of the rolling correlation of bitcoin to gold and inflation expectations so far they have not been consistent so it's kind of hard to tell how bitcoin will work in a portfolio here's some more charts kind of comparing them here you see gold has reliably supported returns when portfolios were otherwise suffering drawdowns and when you throw bitcoin in the mix it's hard to conclude whether it will do the same thing so far the diversification that it offers seems more theoretical than realized because it hasn't happened yet now as we said in the beginning bitcoin institutional acceptance will be slowed by volatility regulatory uncertainty and still immature infrastructure so if we attack this volatility point first the fundamental purpose of a storehold of wealth is to preserve or increase one's purchasing power over time that's the whole point of it right that's why you diversify so that your money stays your money it doesn't get inflated away and you don't lose it but bitcoin seems more like an option because it's so highly volatile and speculative compared to other established stores of value bitcoin isn't widely used as savings vehicle or reserve asset it doesn't have any meaningful participation by governments or the largest global institutional allocators another way to measure whether it's a good storehold of wealth or just speculative is to look at turnover and bitcoin's high turnover compared to gold could reflect its relatively more speculative nature and what they're saying here is that you can see the turnover of bitcoin versus gold bitcoin is the blue bar and it is getting traded like crazy especially compared to gold which it's supposed to be digital gold right and when you see data like this this makes it look more speculative instead of a storehold of wealth because again if it's a storehold of wealth you're holding on to it you're not exactly trading it so much they even say here that the speculative interest in bitcoin in the recent months has increasingly exhibited some classic dynamics of an asset bubble the strong discounting of future rapid price appreciation the broad bullish sentiment and rising leverage are all indications of bubble risk but of course bubbles can last much longer than you think they could so once again it's looking more like a speculative bubble than that storehold wealth which is what it's supposed to be or what they're trying to make it into now one of the biggest things that they think is going to hurt bitcoin is regulation because you got people like the european central bank president saying it's a highly speculative asset which has conducted some funny business and some interesting and totally reprehensible money laundering activity there has to be regulations it's a matter that needs to be agreed at at a global level because if there is an escape that escape will be used basically they're saying that they don't like all the illicit activity going on with bitcoin janet yellen the new us treasury secretary kind of said the same thing during her confirmation hearing she said cryptocurrencies are a particular concern when it comes to terrorism financing we really need to examine the ways in which we can curtail their use and make sure that money laundering doesn't occur through those channels now they're saying that there are two main regulatory paths that they think are most likely one is clamping down on bitcoin and cryptocurrency usage for fear it could undermine traditional fiat currencies and that would cut off further development of this asset bitcoin or there could be a regulatory environment that actually creates more trust in something like bitcoin and the asset becomes a longer term hold but it could lead to heightened volatility along the way but both pats and their views suggest that the bitcoin roller coaster is just getting started it's going to continue for some time now the things that these central bankers are saying you know they might just be an excuse really what the government is going to try and do is anything in their power with any reasoning just to get rid of bitcoin so that they could keep their power and again like i said a lot of power comes from controlling the currency no one ever wants to give up their power and that is not good for bitcoin bridgewater talks about it again here they say their main concern is if there's some future proliferation of central bank digital currencies to serve as officially sanctioned digital storeholds of wealth governments may prefer to limit the competition posed by bitcoin as a non-governmental alternative so they may create their own virtual currencies and say hey don't use bitcoin anymore you don't need it and that might be a nail in the coffin for it so overall then how do we look at bitcoin what should we think about it and then what do you do with your money well dalio sums it up right here he says that bitcoin looks like a long duration option on a highly unknown future that i could put an amount of money in that i wouldn't mind losing about 80 percent of so what he's saying is that this is not a sure bet if you're gonna invest in it expect to lose because the potential outcomes of what could happen with bitcoin are not certain there's a lot of different ones that cone of probabilities is large so you still gotta be careful which is why me personally i'm putting five percent of my net worth into cryptocurrencies i'm probably splitting it amongst bitcoin and ethereum and it's five percent because i do kind of believe things can go south fast and i don't mind losing that five percent if i have to hopefully it grows pretty well but who knows and the reason we don't know is because of all the reasons listed here by bridgewater these are legitimate reasons but to protect yourself when you're investing in bitcoin or really any asset including the stock market you need to be doing one thing in particular it's honestly the most important thing that you could do for your money your investments and your financial future i made a whole video about it right here so definitely click on that video to see what you need to be doing with your investments because i promise you it is very important so click here and i will see you in that video