저자: KevinBai · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 버블 지표 기준, 2020~2021년 미국 주식시장은 버블 상태였으나 2022년 5월 시점에는 버블이 꺼지는 중이며 아직 바닥 확인 단계는 아니다. 달리오의 버블 판별 6가지 요소: 전통적 가치 대비 고가, 지속 불가능한 성장 기대, 신규·초보 투자자 유입, 강세 심리 확산, 부채 기반 매수 비중, 과도한 선매수·투기적 구매. 현재 지표 점검: 주식시장 전체는 1920년대·1990년대 최고 버블 대비 약 70% 수준에서 정점을 찍은 뒤 하락 중. 가치 지표는 약 50 수준으로 하락, 성장률 기대 지표는 약 60퍼센타일로 아직 높음, 신규 개인 투자자 활동은 코로나 이전 평균 수준으로 복귀, 심리 지표는 강하게 부정적, 레버리지 지표는 약 50으로 하락, 설비투자 지표는 약 40퍼센타일. 개별 종목: 2020년 버블주 바스켓은 약 90% 하락 종목이 나왔고 전체적으로 약 1/3 하락. 도큐사인 등 캐시 우드 포트폴리오 성장주가 대표 사례. 매크로 흐름: 저금리가 버블을 키우고 금리 상승·유동성 긴축이 버블을 꺼뜨렸다. 1929년 버블은 약 2년, 1990년대 기술 버블은 약 1년에 걸쳐 해소되었다. 투자 시사점: 버블 과열 구간은 벗어났지만 안전한 매수 시점은 아니며, 과거처럼 과매도 과정에서 펀더멘털 이하로 밀리는 오버슈팅이 나올 수 있어 분할 접근이 필요하다. 해설자는 특정 종목을 언급하며 매집 중이라고 밝혔으나 종목명은 자막에서 특정되지 않는다. 리스크: 이익 성장률 하향 조정이 아직 끝나지 않았고, 밸류에이션이 역사적 평균으로 완전히 회귀하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
everyone's favorite ccp whipping boy ray dalio is back and actually he never left he's always been publishing stuff but i love to check in to see what he's talking about as long as it doesn't relate to china actually even if it relates to china i still like to read about it because even though he's a ccp cuck he still has great great information he's one of the greatest investors who ever lived especially when it comes to macro you can't beat it so it pays to pay attention to him now one of the latest research articles that he released he talks about bubbles because one question we gotta ask is what we were seeing in the last few years was that a bubble now of course a lot of people would say yes of course it was a bubble but again those same people have been saying we're in a bubble since 2009 since the last bubble popped so the word bubble as we know gets thrown around a lot which is why it's better to pay attention to someone like dalio who has the actual data analysis power to see whether we actually were in a bubble and where we are now so dalio defines a bubble market as one that has a combination of the following factors in high degrees and there are six factors here that we'll go into detail in a second but here's a broad overview so the first thing you got to look for in a bubble is high prices relative to traditional measures of value so what he does is he takes the present value of a company's cash flows and then compares it to their interest rates so as you'll see below you could do this with multiple different assets and companies and then put together an aggregate reading another thing you got to look for in a bubble market is unsustainable conditions so this once again is related to a company when you start extrapolating their past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle so okay a company has been growing really well and analysts think it's going to keep growing at that pace even when there's capacity limits which means that growth can't be sustained and that leads well into what we always talk about on this channel which is expectations because markets are driven off of investors expectations now this applies to the general market like if we're thinking macro like oh investors think inflation is coming so they think the fed is going to raise rates so you see the market fall did inflation actually come it doesn't matter what matters is if investors think it's going to come because the market is a future pacing mechanism so it's always looking into the future what's happened now or in the past is already priced in so it's more expectations about the future and that same concept applies to companies especially in growth stocks because here's the thing with growth stocks the actual number of see what their earnings were it doesn't matter from quarter to quarter what matters is what were investors expecting that company to grow at and whether that company beat those expectations or fell below them so say analysts are expecting this hot tech company to grow at 50 this quarter well even if the company comes in at 49 which is still amazing you will probably see that stock price plummet even if the company comes in at 50 which is what was expected you'll see the stock price plummet because what investors want is for their expectations to be exceeded so for that company stock price to go higher it would have to come in at 51 52 then investors are surprised and they're like oh this is amazing and you'll see the price shoot up and you can see how this becomes difficult and it's unsustainable because quarter after quarter if a company needs to surprise there's only so much you can grow and especially if you're expected to grow at an exponential rate it is unsustainable and that's why you see the bubble form because the expectations of these investors priced this company way way out into a perfect future for example tesla like tesla was priced as if it was going to take over the entire world even the entire universe so as soon as those expectations start to falter you'll see stocks just crater so when we're talking about bubbles that's what creates bubbles too that's a huge factor just these expectations so when dalio is talking about unsustainable conditions he's focused more on the company you know extrapolating revenue and earnings growth but you also got to think about investors in that too but moving on the third factor is many new and naive buyers who are attracted in because the market had gone up a lot so it's perceived as a hot market now we all know what happens right the market looks good a bunch of fools rushing classic and part of that is factor number four broad bullish sentiment everyone sees everyone else making money everyone jumps in put all their money into the market number five is a high percentage of these purchases being financed by debt because hey if you didn't have a lot of cash but you're seeing everyone make a ton of money and it's super easy you just throw it in and it goes up what are you gonna do hey i might as well borrow money and make a bunch of money on money i don't even have because hey i could pay it back and it's all gonna go great and this is what also causes a bubble because as investors get out over their skis and this is a term that we use a lot it means that they're using debt which is money that they don't have to finance purchases so what happens if stock prices stop going up as soon as it turns around these investors that are investing based off debt they are the most fragile the weakest hands and they sell like crazy so that accelerates the downside because they're working off debt so just like that can fuel that bubble up fast it can bring it down even faster which is exactly what happens in every single bubble so one thing you want to look at is how many purchases are being financed by debt as that number goes up that tells you hey we're in a bubble the sixth thing he looks at is a lot of forward and speculative purchases made to bet on price gains so this is once again kind of looking at companies so inventories that are far more than needed and contracted forward purchases and things like that so basically companies planning into the future and almost overspending because you have the consumer side and then you have the company side too so those are the six factors that we're looking at in a bubble now the question is were we in a bubble just recently and is it popping right now well in january the bubble indicator that dalio has showed that the u.s equity market as a whole was at the edge of a bubble but not in an extreme bubble so what he's doing here is comparing our current conditions to two previous bubbles one in the 1990s you know the tech bubble and another one in the 1920s so by comparing what's happening now and then you could see where we are so this recent bubble and yeah we could call it a bubble was 70 percent of the way towards the highest bubble which happened in the late 1990s and the late 1920s so some emerging tech companies like tesla and roku were clearly in an extreme bubble so on a case-by-case basis yeah some stocks were in extreme bubbles and you know those are some of the same stocks that we saw drop 90 in the previous video i was talking about companies like docusign just absolutely crushed you know everything in kathy wood's portfolio those big tech story stocks that everyone thought were going to grow forever and the ones that were fueled by all the new people coming into the market during the pandemic and running those prices up there was also other bubbly behavior during that time so we had spax we had the ipo boom we had the huge pickup and options activity if you've been watching these videos for a while you know we used to track that so all of this was financed by the unprecedented flood of liquidity post covent and that found its way into acid markets we create our own bubbles don't we well of course how else would a bubble be made so dalio basically created an index of the stocks which he called bubble stocks but since that time those bubble stocks have popped obviously they're down like i said like 90 percent well some of them anyway as a whole according to dalio's indicator they declined about one-third while the s p was about flat relative to his indicators anyway so that coupled with other developments in the market including a meaningful decline in frothy retail activity and a meaningful deterioration and sentiment so those factors combined show that emerging tech stocks are no longer in a bubble but they also haven't swung to the opposite extreme which tends to happen when a bubble pops so now is not necessarily a good time to jump in the market and you know we've talked about this a lot in the recent market reviews but it's good to get other people's opinions too especially someone like dalio who is legit has the actual data backing it up and you'll see a lot of similarities between what he's saying and what we've been tracking too which is good so the reason why he's saying it's not necessarily a good time to buy now is because bubbles can take a long time to unwind so in the case of the 1929 bubble it took two years and in the case of the 90s tech bubble it took a year and what happens is we typically go to the opposite extreme so we get that bear market we get that crash way lower than it should because just like there is extreme euphoria that created the bubble you get extreme pessimism that pushes stock prices below their fundamental value that's when you get the good deals to back up the truck like we were talking about that one stock in our last video not even going to tell you the stock because you'll know it if you watch the video i'll put a link to it at the end of this video so just because we aren't at a bubble extreme doesn't mean that it's safe or a good time to get long in fact u.s stocks and aggregates still look overvalued by dalio's measures and this article was from a few weeks ago so we got to take into account how much the market has dropped from then until now and according to our research and macrops we actually are nearing the bottom but this is still good to review because this is the right way to look at valuations and it's good to compare it to the 90s and the 20s so these three charts are interesting because here is the bubble indicator and you could see in the 1920s it popped up to 100 1990s 100 as well but today it only went up to about 80 percent so again like dalio said this is not the most extreme bubble and you could also see it came down so it's not as extreme as these other ones but it is indeed popping here's an aggregate of the most bubbly companies which dalio was tracking in 2020 well he defined them in 2020 you could see they came down significantly like we were saying all those big stocks down 90 this is another way to look at it those bubble stocks are the red line right here they've come down a lot they've given up most of their post coveted gains and total returns of that bubble slice are negative real bad so hopefully uh people did not try and buy and hold those stocks trading is the way to go with these bubbles so here's an interesting set of charts too you got the 1920s bubble right here you can see that the decline in interest rates actually fuel the bubble in asset prices the red line is the s p the blue line is long rates and then as rates started to go up that's when the bubble popped so easy monetary policy creates a supportive backdrop for growth equities and another thing you could see is that margin debt fueled this bubble as well these are people taking on debt to buy the stocks because everyone else is looks so easy 1990s bubble you see the same thing short rates came down the market exploded and then as soon as they came back up you had the bubble pop you can see again debt buying occurred at the same time this blue line is the high margin debt and this red line is equity call volume so lots of options and this is the 90s bubble right so there's elevated retail flows and levered buying driving prices higher and higher and we're talking about equity call volume as debt because you can basically consider options as levered plays right you get higher upside and lower downside depending on how you're doing it now if you look at today once again rates went lower the bubble formed rates are going higher and now it's popping hard and we see this same thing with equity call volume and margin debt which are now declining but they fuel the way up so tightening liquidity eventually pops the bubble although this often follows through with the lag so it's not perfect stock prices usually follow so everything we've been seeing that's driving this current bubble is classic it's the same drivers we saw 100 years ago in the 20s and the same drivers from 20 years ago in the 90s bubble we've seen the tightening right it has pricked this bubble but now if you look at dalio's readings it looks like we're out of the bubble so it has calmed down you can see everything is deflating one factor is somewhat frothy but the rest are coming down so now let's jump into these six factors and define them better and see where we are this is a good framework to determine when we are in a bubble so first thing how high are prices relative to traditional measures so the current reading for our stock market is around 50 so it's coming down again you can see here in the 20s and the 90s it was up to a hundred percent we never reached that we got close maybe about 90 but we weren't there but you can also see how much it deflated right and if we're only around 50 we might have some ways to go which is what dahlia was saying about how bubbles they over correct the other way when you're at this zero indicator you're gonna get some real deals in the market because that's when the stocks are pushed way below their actual fundamental value or there's no such thing as actual fundamental value but what sober investors would think is the actual fundamental value when they're not scared and selling everything second factor are prices discounting unsustainable conditions so this again is the earnings growth rate of a company that's required to produce equity returns in excess of bond returns now currently this indicator is around the 60th percentile for the aggregate market which is more elevated than some of our other readings so their earnings growth discounted in stocks is still a bit high which means that analysts need to revise lower and companies need to revise lower too so there's still some froth here so this needs to come down and that's absolutely going to come down as the bubble keeps popping and this is even more noticeable in the u.s software sector analyst earnings growth expectations for this sector have come down but they're still relatively high compared to history like the pe's have reversed their covet gains but again still high compared to history so they too need to come down valuations aren't completely reset yet third factor how many new buyers those who weren't previously in the market have entered the market now we know absolutely that happened in 2020 during the pandemic everyone was trading but it also happened in the 1990s when trading online was first becoming big and it even happened in the 1929 bubble so this always happens it's a big factor this sucker is flooding in so this gate shot above the 90th percentile in 2020 due to a flood of new retail investors into the most popular stocks we all know about that amc gamestop it was so much fun so based off that measure we were for sure in a bubble which you can see here it's almost hitting that 100 percentile but we've seen a meaningful moderation in the pace of retail activity in markets it's not and now it's back to around pre-covet averages so it's come down a lot that's the benefit of uh everyone losing a bunch of money is all the suckers get washed out things get a lot more quiet you guys have been commenting on the youtube channel that there's a lot less gurus out there and that's great i'm happy because there is always too much noise in the market as it is without more and more people talking you guys like these little sun spots i can barely see if i move my eye a certain way it starts to blind me but then if it wasn't sunny i'd be complaining anyway can't win until you fix your perspective that's your life lesson for the day just be happy but anyway going back what is factor number four how broadly bullish is sentiment because hey the more bullish the sentiment the more people have already invested so they are likely to have fewer resources to keep investing and are more likely to sell and we've said this in almost every single market review how does sentiment work if people are too bullish they have all their money in the market already so what's left to buy they don't have any powder on the side right all you could do at this point is sell which is why a super bullish reading is actually bearish for the stock market and the opposite is true too when people are super bearish they have a lot of cash on the sidelines so there's only one place for that cash to go right back into the market and that's where you'll get the buying pressure to push stock prices higher so that's how you track sentiment and sentiment in the market right now is significantly negative and you'll see in our market review on tuesday that we are getting closer and closer to that point of pure total capitulation we had to have that brutal selling day after day for it to happen and that capitulation when everyone's like i'm out then all the money is on the sidelines right no more selling to be done so you can see the bullish sentiment gauge came down a lot factor number five our purchase is being financed by high leverage so leverage purchases like we talked about make the underpinnings of the buying weaker because that buying that they did is more vulnerable to force selling and a downturn to cover that bet so these are not strong hands these are the weakest and weakest paper hands do people even say paper hands anymore is that that's a 2020 term i don't know but today's leverage meter is showing around 50 so it's come down a lot of people have been blown out and like we talked about in the last few weeks we've seen some crazy crazy market action because whole entire firms have been blown out they were over leveraged it's not just retail investors professional firms are doing crazy stuff all the time then you see them blow up and you see the market absolutely drop because of their forced liquidations and that's kind of what we've been seeing and then the stories come out later oh this huge fun blew up but you'll see it in the market first that's where you get extreme for selling and then we got factor number six to what extent have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases so this is easiest to see in commodity and real estate markets where forward purchases are most clear in equity markets dalio looks at capital expenditures so whether businesses into a lesser extent the government whether they're investing a lot or a little in infrastructure and factories and things like that so what is their capital expenditures what do they think is going to happen they're going to invest more if they think things are going to be better so what you don't want is business extrapolating current demand into strong demand growth going forward now this gauge is around the 40th percentile similar to other gauges so it's been coming down the bubble has been popping so in conclusion while the reversal has been significant discounting of future earnings remains somewhat high compared to history so valuations are still elevated now again this is from a few weeks ago so based off the recent weeks of selling we might be closer to that bottom valuations are realigned with historical norms but either way bubbles more often over correct which is sell off more than the fundamentals would suggest versus just settling back to normal levels so that's what we still want to see again we just talked about a stock that we're about to back the truck up on because it has been falling so hard and it's one of those stocks that's like the baby that got thrown out with the bathwater because this business is great and it can be a trillion dollar company in the future and right now it's down over 70 percent on the day i released that video is down another 15 investors are punishing this great stock and great company because it's grouped in with all the other tech stocks and that's what makes it such a great opportunity in fact our team and macro-ops have already scooped up some shares and we're going to scoop up a lot more so if you want to see that story and you should definitely check it out so you can add this stock to your watch list click this video right here and the great thing about that video is i don't have this little sun bar just coming down me but okay i'm gonna get outside and actually enjoy the sun you know get get the full sun experience not just the strip maybe i'll strip in the sun who knows but i'll talk to you soon watch this video
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