🛑 Warren Buffett Predicts Gold Market Crash? 🛑 Stocks: Why Buffett BUYING Gold Is A Big Deal

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결론: 버핏의 금 투자 언급은 금 강세의 근거가 되기 어렵고, 금 가격은 실질금리·주식 기대수익률 대비 수급 구조로 봐야 하며 단기적으로는 과열 조정 가능성이 크다. 버핏의 입장: 버핏은 현금흐름을 창출하지 않는 금을 선호하지 않으며, 금은 두려움에 베팅하는 투기적 수단이라고 평가했다. 금을 사는 것은 버핏 본인이라기보다 그를 대신해 운용하는 인물들의 투자 성향 변화로 해석된다. 금 분석 프레임(RED: 상대적 규모·기대 실질수익률·수요): 전 세계 채굴 금 중 15% 미만만 투자 형태로 보유되며, 금 시가총액은 약 1~2조 달러 수준으로 전체 자본스톡(250~300조 달러) 대비 작다. 공급은 사실상 고정되어 있어 수요 변화가 가격을 좌우한다. 수요 결정 요인: 금 수요는 인플레이션이나 위기 보험보다 주식·채권의 기대 실질수익률에 연동된다. 대체자산 수익률이 낮을수록 금 수요가 늘고, 채권 수익률이 높아지면 금에서 자금이 빠진다. 장기적으로 금 가격은 통화량 나누기 금 재고에 수렴하는 경향이 있다고 설명했다. 현재 판단: GMO 7년 전망에 따르면 미국 대형주 기대수익률은 -1.5%, 소형주 1.4% 수준으로 낮아 장기 금 강세 근거가 된다. 파월의 통화 공급 지속 가능성도 강조된다. 다만 금은 15개월 상승 추세 후 매수 클라이맥스 구간이며, 투기적 포지션이 2003년 이후 최고치로 쏠려 있어 조정 위험이 높다고 봤다. 단기 전략: 채널은 최근 은(Silver)에 대해 단기 숏 포지션을 잡았다고 밝혔다(진입 26.6 부근, 손절 27.1). 실질금리 상승 압력과 계절성 종료를 근거로 들었다. 장기 전망: 장기 금 강세 추세는 유지될 가능성이 크지만 단기 변동성은 높을 것으로 봤다. 채널 운용 전략은 금 자체보다 나스닥 주식 중심이며, 타인의 금 투자에 따라 매매할 필요는 없다고 강조했다. 다음 영상 예고: 달러 붕괴설 분석을 다룰 예정이며, 현재로서는 달러 붕괴가 일어나고 있지 않다고 주장.

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01. grandpa buff took a hefty position in bear gold recently which is surprising because he's not normally a fan of gold so what's going on and what does it mean for the precious metals markets that's what we're going to go over in this video but if you haven't already make sure you first take our free training which teaches you our strategy of how we trade these markets same strategy i use and a bunch of our fallible members use as well really solid strategy easy to use and has great returns check out the training it's free so like i said before buffett is not usually a fan of gold he's said many many things against owning gold he's all about those companies with cash flows we got a bunch of quotes from him here that pretty much explains how he feels about it gold gets dug out of the ground in africa or someplace and then we melt it down dig another hole and bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it it has no utility anyone watching for mars would be scratching their heads buffett what's his mo investing in companies with cash flows that pay he wants good businesses so of course he's not gonna like gold that doesn't produce any cash flows he's not a precious metals commodities type guy he's the old school value investor great businesses and great prices that you hold forever and that's what he admits here he's not a commodities guy the problem with commodities is that you're betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months aka speculation the commodity itself isn't going to do anything for you it's an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time and when it comes to commodities which includes precious metals like gold it is mostly speculation if you're investing in that all the great traders in the 70s from commodities corp they were all commodities traders all the trend following that you heard about started there the only people who aren't trying to speculate to make more money are the actual commercial hedgers but in that case it actually is kind of speculation too because they're just trying to lock down a price for the materials that they need to build their product so for example mcdonald's to make their chicken nuggets they need to lock down prices for chicken and a funny story is that ray dalio actually put together that financial engineering for them back in the day so ray dalio gave us the chicken nugget but anyway all this speculation is not buffet's forte gold is a way of going long on fear and it's been a pretty good way of going along on fear from time to time but you really gotta hope that people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now and if they become more afraid you make money if they become less afraid you lose money but the gold itself doesn't produce anything so buffett's talking about gold as a hedge for fear people start buying gold when they're scared that is something that we don't necessarily agree with which we'll go over in a minute with our macro analysis at macro ops we look at gold differently we have a different framework for analyzing it i will say this about gold if you took all the gold in the world it would be worth about seven trillion dollars and at the time of the quote seven trillion is only about a third of the value of all the stocks in the united states with seven trillion you could have all the farmland in the united states and you could have seven exxon mobils and you could have trillions of walking around money so if you offered buffett a choice between a bunch of gold or anything else he would go with the farmland or the exxon mobils once again he's all about cash flow gold is not cash flow he also mentioned that gold is a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets especially paper money so this kind of goes more in line with our analysis framework for gold but it's not really about the fear of paper money either it's not a huge inflation hedge i know sounds crazy but we're about to get into it when it comes down to it though buffett's opinion on gold is that it's a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs like actual cash producing companies then a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that which is how he looks at gold so he does not want a golden goose but regardless of why buffett is buying we know that there has been a huge run in precious metals like look at this chart of silver right here but what's it even mean why is gold running like it is do people think the dollar is going to be dead they might but that's not why gold is running let's get into this macro framework of how to analyze it so again this is coming from our research for macro ops and the first thing is that analyzing gold has little to do with inflation or crisis insurance so the right way to analyze it is not as a hedge against the dollar dying or fear which would be that crisis insurance the framework falls under the acronym red so that stands for relative size expected real returns and demand so you'll see as we go through this analyzing gold goes back to analyzing supply and demand just like every single other economic asset it all goes back to those basics those econ 101 things that you learn so the first thing we got to look at is relative size and less than 15 of the gold mined throughout history is held in investment form and gold's total market cap is somewhere between the ballpark of one to two trillion which i know doesn't match with what buffett said just now but i think we're just talking about in investment form right now but the comparison still holds whether this is one or two or seven because the global capital stock which is equity plus debt is in the realm of 250 to 300 trillion this creates a positively sloped investment demand function and that's just a fancy way of saying that there's a lot of money chasing after very few goods big demand small supply so what influences that demand then what makes people want to buy gold well that comes down to expected returns and not the expected returns of gold but the rate of return available on alternative assets so because gold is a non-perishable metal doesn't go away you can't use it up and the amount mined each year meaning the new amount of gold coming in is very tiny relative to the existing stock because there's not just more gold produced every day there's a finite amount that you got to mine out of the ground we should focus on the latter and our supply and demand calculations meaning you could pretty much assume that the supply is constant so that the only change that you should be analyzing is the demand and then what influences that demand is the expected real return offered on other assets like stocks and bonds so the demand for gold only becomes positive people only want it when they can't get a return on anything else so that leads us into the last part of the framework which is demand so because the supply pretty much doesn't change just a small change in the demand can have a huge impact on the price of the metal and remember the basics when there's a small supply and a lot of demand the price of something is going to shoot up if there's a lot of supply and a little bit of demand then the price falls but in this case you could assume the supply doesn't change so you're only looking at demand whether it's high or low so there's demand preferences for gold are driven by the expected real returns of stocks and bonds so that's why gold pretty much tracks the real yields on bonds very closely when bonds are not offering a good yield then the price of gold goes up because people start piling in gold and vice versa if people are getting a good return from bonds then they get rid of their gold you could see the same thing with capital markets so if the expected return of capital markets is ten percent then gold becomes negative eight percent and it's a whole inverse relationship capital markets are negative two percent gold is 22 so over the long run and this is how dalio looks at gold as well the price of gold will approximate the total amount of money in circulation divided by the size of the gold stock and it's not inflation or deflation that's the principal driver of gold or fear or anything like that but the expected real return from other long-term financial assets particularly equities so stocks so using that framework we could pretty much say there's a high probability that the bull market in gold is going to continue for the foreseeable future we know that the global money stock has exploded and it's continuing to rise because powell can't stop printing no one's gonna stop printing more and more money is coming to the economy and at the same time the expected real return on financial assets is very low i know the stock market is constantly going up but the expected return is low it's even negative in some cases here's gmo's seven year forecast you can see u.s large caps have expected return of negative 1.5 percent and small caps are only at 1.4 bonds on this side are even worse and the historical long-term average is 6.5 for these equities and stocks so given this it's no wonder that gold prices are shooting up so yeah maybe it does make sense that buffett is buying these gold companies because we are in that long-term bull trend and really it's not buffett directly buying this stuff it's more the people that are working for him that are slowly taking over because you know buff it's old so i don't think berkshire is gonna stay the exact same when someone else is managing it you're gonna see different investments like this gold play now we've been tracking gold over at macro ops because we've been playing it in and out of the trend so gold right now is on a 15 month uptrend buying climax on a monthly basis you can see that right here here's a monthly chart of gold it broke out of this pattern and it's been flying higher since last year but as we mentioned it's kind of a buying climax right now they're extremely overbought and they've been working off those levels over the last week now the long-term path of least resistance is up meaning gold is going to remain in this bull market but you can expect higher volatility in the near term so this whole buffett buying goal thing is pretty much the cherry on top for the bullish gold narrative it's become consensus everybody is long gold last week small speculative positioning hit its highest level on a z score basis since january of 03 2003 which the last time this happened there was a huge retracement in the medal and what do we know about sentiment and positioning if everybody's on one side of the boat well then the boat is gonna tip right so if everybody's super bullish on an asset that's when you could see it turn around because all the money is already there people are leveraged there's no more money to come in and push the price higher what's better for an asset like stocks gold whatever it is is more bearishness because that means people still have yet to invest in it so whenever you get extreme sentiment or positioning in one direction you gotta look to the other direction in this case we gotta look for gold to fall gold is also near the end of its positive seasonality and it's under pressure from rising real yields and you can see that right here bonds have been dropping recently and when prices of bonds drop the actual interest rates go up it's inversely related and what do we know from our framework that we just went over if you're getting better yields and bonds then you're not as interested in gold that's going to put some downward pressure on the price so in the macro ops portfolio which is a global macro portfolio we've actually went short silver today and i'm recording this video tuesday afternoon and like i said we're bullish on precious metals as a whole but we have been playing the short side last time we shorted silver was right here and you could see it made a huge drop made some good money on that so we're shorting again today entered around 26 610 and our stop loss is at 27.1 so up here pretty tight stop and again this is a very short-term trade it's kind of like a mean reversion trade we're shorting it for a few days and we'll recover pretty quickly now the strategy i talk about in this training which you should definitely check out we don't actually ever trade gold we just stick to stocks specifically stocks in the nasdaq and that's the thing it's interesting to talk about buffett and what he's doing and what other traders are doing even you know what alex is doing at macrops my partner but when it comes down to it you should be sticking to your own strategy just because someone else is trading precious metals doesn't mean you need to as well i've already fallen for that trap i've traded global macro i've made money and i've lost money at the end of the day i went back to the strategy that i like the best which again is all focused on stocks and you can learn more about it here but at the end of the day you gotta remember it's okay to miss out on some trend or opportunity in some market because that's always gonna be the case now if you are a global macro trader then yeah you would be in various different markets otherwise though it's okay just to stay in one there's a lot of opportunity in that market as well still make a ton of money now if you like this video make sure you subscribe because what we're gonna do in the following videos is go over how to analyze the dollar because a lot of people think the dollar is gonna collapse and that's one of the reasons they're getting into gold as well or it's why they think that gold is going up but this whole dollar collapsing thing is not happening and we're going to explain it in the future videos so if you want to see those make sure you subscribe and i will see you there stay folded out there bye you