저자: Cory · 외국인
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하락 조정 중이지만 SPY 428 이상 유지 시 강세 조정 후 재상승 가능성 주장. 432-438 지지 확인 필요, 428 이탈 시 약세장 우려. 나스닥100 340 지지, 다우 340 지지 주시. VIX 24 이상 지속 시 경계, 비트코인 42,000 이탈 시 37,000 재테스트 가능성, 엔비디아 209-215 과매도 지지 주시, 테슬라 965 이탈 시 하락 가능성, 애플 162-168 지지 주시, 에너지 섹터 강세 유지.
다듬은 글
today in the stock market we're continuing to pull back as we come into the major test of support which is going to need to hold up if there's any hopes of going back into a bull market so right alright so today on spy we were down 1.71 and we did gap down and closed near the low of the day so this is definitely bearish looking price action but the first thing i want you to point your eyes to is that we did not see high volume selling so i've been talking about this pullback before it happened and i did warn you that these pullbacks are usually going to be the bear trap before you get another impulsive bull rally and that should be enough to send us back into a bull market so right now i still do favor that this impulsive bull rally was warning us that we're going back into a bull market and this is just a pullback which is a corrective move by nature before we continue into that bull market so this is what i prefer but as always we need to follow the price action and in order for this to play out we really need to see spy staying above 433 to about 438 with the last line of defense down here at 428 if we lose these three support levels we are very likely going into a bear market or at least some sort of kangaroo market where we just sort of chop around and go sideways and go absolutely nowhere until the market decides which direction it wants to go so from here i still favor that we are going to find support get a ton of bearish sentiment where everybody is bearish and everybody thinks the market's going lower and then and only then will we start to reverse and go back into a bull market so if everybody is getting bearish and everybody is freaking out and losing their mind that's completely to be expected because that's exactly what happens during these pullbacks if we started to see a pullback that was more vertical that's definitely a lot more bearish but as you can tell it's very choppy to the downside and that's exactly what we want to see in a corrective move we want to see indecision and we want to see choppiness to the downside and we want to see this nice smooth price action to the upside so hopefully that makes sense on why i'm bullish with the price action even though we are pulling back you want to buy as low as possible because that's how you get the max reward if anybody's trying to scare you out of buying low and you have a bullish mindset in the long term just block them out because there is absolutely nothing wrong with buying low if you're buying higher and higher and higher and then you're panic selling as the market goes lower you're doing everything backwards and you're never going to be profitable by panic selling and then fomo into rallies that you missed so try to practice getting used to buying when everybody is fearful and everybody's losing their mind and then practice selling when everybody is greedy and everybody is saying oh my god the market's going up forever and it's never pulling back that's when you want to start locking in your profits so from here we are going to be bullish until spy breaks below 438 and then we know we have two more lines of defense for the bulls at 433 and 428 but below 428 there is absolutely no reason to be bullish any longer on spy because it's very weak and it could go all the way down to 400 so we are drawing our line in the sand to the downside at 428 and we are only going to stay bullish above that level so if you want to save some dry powder in case we go to that level by all means go for it but don't forget back here when everybody was expecting spy to go to 400 we got that double bottom off of 416 and then we had that face melting rally to the upside and if you were just sitting around sitting in 100 cash and had absolutely no long positions you made zero dollars from one of the most impulsive bull rallies that i've seen in the last five years so don't just sit on the sidelines if you're bullish and you want a long position don't be afraid to start scaling in at support now we're getting a lot more bullish the next time spy gets back above 4 45 and we do have a gap at 4 46 so there's a very good chance spy will go up there to close that gap and we did gap down on a monday so that is now a gap on the weekly chart as well and if you look at weekly charts you're not going to find a whole lot of gaps on a weekly chart that haven't filled so we're getting a lot more bullish when spy gets back above 4 45 but the bullish breakout at this point is back above 450 and 453 so if you want to wait for price action to confirm that we're going back on the bull just be patient and wait till spy breaks back above 450.
your only risk in doing that is if we go down lower and you didn't buy low and then we break out about 453 you missed a little bit of upside but you're taking on a lot less risk by waiting for the price action to confirm or going bullish so there's a million ways you could play the stock market and set your risk and reward so just pick what works best for you and go for it the next time we get back above 462 we should be back into a full bull market and another bullish breakout will be that close back above 458.
so watch these very critical support levels because they could be tested as soon as this week at 438 433.5 and 428 and yes there is a possibility that we did see the bottom before we start rallying so don't just think we have to go down and test these support levels even though they are the very strong support levels you would want to set your risk at so jumping over to the nasdaq 100 triple q's you can see we were down 2.37 today and we did gap down and closed near the low of the day and we closed right on top of very strong support right around 340 and that gap to the upside closes right around 348.5 we do have the gap up there at 360 as well but the more gaps that open and don't get filled the more bearish the price action starts to look these breakaway gaps tell us that the bears have all of the momentum but the good news is we don't see high volume selling so this still could be a bear trap even though the price action looks extremely bearish we don't really have enough high volume selling to send us much lower unless people find more shares in their couch cushions and start dumping them tomorrow so right now just like spy we have very impulsive price action to the upside and we're starting to get this choppy price action to the downside so as long as we can stay choppy to the downside there is the possibility we are going to hold support at 340 or right around 335 and if these levels hold you can stay bullish however if the triple q slice down through 335 there is almost no reason to still be bullish on the triple q's because they're very likely going down to close gap at 3 15 and below that you could go all the way down to about 303.5 so on the triple q's you're getting a lot more bearish below 335 but you can stay bullish and buy the dip off of these support levels knowing there's still the possibility we get this zigzag pattern to the upside now keep in mind the 20 simple moving average did cross over the 50 on the spy and the triple q's so that does mean we just need the 5 and the 13 ema to cross back above and we'll be in a full bull trend those moving averages move the quickest so it won't take long before the full bull trend is back so we really just need the gap close at 360 and the confirmation we're going back on the bull will be a close back above 367.
above 372 we're full bull on the triple q's but if you want to wait for confirmation wait until we break out right around 363 to 365 and then we should have a sustainable bull trend that could send us back above 372. now the other thing i want to do on the triple q's is just take a very quick look at the weekly chart and you can see we are testing the bottom channel of this macro level bull market as support and if i zoom in here you can also see there is a gap to fill because we gapped down on a monday and did not yet fill that gap so we are at very strong support as far as i'm concerned because we're at very strong support at the daily chart and we're at very strong support on the weekly chart if the weekly chart loses this support level and we close the week below 340 we are very likely going into a bear market and we will be very apparent in the price action because we'll likely lose that support level right around 335.
so if we close the week below 340 it's more than likely we'll be well below 335 so watch those very critical support levels and understand in the macro level bull market why this support level is so important and why this is a very critical moment for you to make a decision on your long positions because from here we could go all the way back into a bull market which does mean we could still see new all-time highs over the next 12 months so jumping back over to this daily chart watch these very critical levels to the upside right around 348 352 and 354 and that gap closed at 360.
and to the downside watch these very critical support levels at 340 and 335. jumping over to the dow jones daily chart you can see the dow jones was down 1.2 percent today and we did close back below all the moving averages but we did hold up above the previous lows right around 343. from here we still have very strong support at 340 and it's very likely we could test that level as support because that will also be the test of the breakout of resistance from here the dow jones is getting incredibly bullish back above 346 and back above 350 so if you want to wait for bullish price action confirmation wait for the close above those levels above that you still have resistance at 353 356 and 360.
and i still think it's very likely that dow jones is trending up there to close that gap at 360. so that is a very good solid price target to pay attention to to the upside because we do know with the bullish momentum to the upside and you can clearly see the dow jones is chopping around to the downside this is very corrective by nature after a very impulsive move to the upside so it's very likely this move is going to continue we go close that gap at 360 and re-test previous all-time highs so continue to stay bullish in the longer term as long as we're staying above these critical support levels coming over to the russell 2000 iwm etf we were down 0.67 today and we see iwm is very close to closing that gap to the downside at 195.7 and at this point it makes a lot of sense for the russell 2000 to close that gap and then try to bounce up here to close the other gap right around 202.5 we'll be getting a lot more bullish on a close above 204 then a closed back above 208 and we'll be in a full bull market by the time iwm closes above 212.
now to the downside if we lose the support level at the gap at 195.7 you're looking for a very strong support level right around 193 and then 191 but if we close below 191 we're likely trending down to 170 with support on the way there at 183 to continue into this bear market on the rk etf we were down 1.34 today and rk is very clearly trending down to go close this gap at 54.7 and continuing into the bear market we still have the full bear trend and we clearly got rejected at resistance so once we close that gap at 54.7 it's likely we start to bounce to go close the gap at 66.
you're getting a lot more bullish when we start closing back above 71 otherwise you need to stay bearish on the ctf because it's in such a strong bear market so don't get bullish until it closes above 71 and above that we still have resistance right around 78. on the vix we were up 15 today and the vix did close above 24 so you need to start getting a lot more cautious remember during the pullback i expected the vix to test 24 as resistance but we really don't want to see the vix closing above 24 if we're trying to stay bullish so as the vix continues to rise just become more cautious and maybe save a little more dry powder on the sidelines because if we do go lower you're not going to want to be fully invested so get a lot more cautious the vix one day over 24 is just a sign of caution if we get the second close in a second day in a row with the vix above 24 it is possible to get a waterfall wave of selling as panic selling picks up in the vic spikes into the 30s and then we could start to see high volume selling so just be very cautious of the vix at this level we're getting a lot more bullish the next time the vix closes below 20 but right now we need to be a lot more cautious on bitcoin we're currently down about 5.75 percent with bitcoin trading just below 40 000 and you can see we did lose that critical support level at 42 000 so it is possible bitcoin is trending back down to the support level at 37 000.
now if this is just a fake out to the downside we should start to see a bounce very soon but you really shouldn't be getting bullish until we can close back above 42 to 43 000 so right now on bitcoin get a lot more cautious and prepare for a retest of 37 000 unless this just ends up being a stop braid below support and price action bounces right back above 43 000 then you can still stay bullish but right now you need to be cautious below 42 000.
if we lose that support level at 37 000 that would be incredibly bearish and will more than likely make that next leg lower to re-test support at 30 000. on nvidia stock we were down 5.2 percent today and nvidia did a gap down and closed near the low of the day and closed outside the lower bollinger bands so nvidia's incredibly oversold at this level right around this level at 209 is a very strong support level but there is the possibility we just retest the breakout as support right around 215 and that level could hold up as support considering we're very oversold so from here to the upside we need to break back above 223 and then we can close the gap at 230 and we can get a lot more bullish if we can start closing back above 256.
below 256 you're looking for a lower high that's more than likely just going to get rejected at resistance but above 256 we're more than likely done with the correction and we could be going back into a bull market on this stock so stay very bearish below 256 knowing that there is more upside to close the gaps and you could still take long trades off support but you don't want to do a long-term swing trade on something in a bear trend so make sure you're locking in your profits at resistance until we get the bull trend or the close back above 267.
on tesla stock we were down 4.83 today and tesla did close below the 20 simple moving average but we're still holding above the critical support at 9.65 one of our critical support levels was 996 and we did close below that level and we did open a gap above that ironically doesn't fill until we fill the other gap close that was right around 10 21 so now we still have a gap at 10 21 but now we're filling it from the downside and trying to fill an up gap so clearly 1021 is a very critical level on tesla because it keeps coming back up however if we lose support at 965 we're more than likely not closing that gap until we bounce off support right around 928 so below 968 look for support at 9 37 and 9 28 and do remember we have two gaps to the upside at 10 21 and 1087 so try not to get overly bearish when there's a lot of upside gaps to fill and we still have a relatively strong bull trend the five ema is crossing back down below but that can quickly be remedied by a strong bounce so look for resistance right around 10 21 1065 1087 and 1108 and we're getting a lot more bullish for all-time highs if we can close above 11.50 on apple stock we were down two and a half percent today and apple stock did close below that very critical support at 168 and we did lose our support trend line right around 167 so one more day closing below these critical supports will be bearish for apple stock and we still do have support right around 165 and 162 below 162 just like i said on the triple q's it's more than likely we're entering a bear market so these are extremely critical support levels that need to hold up if we have any hopes of bouncing and hitting that new all-time high now the good news for the bulls is that apple did leave a gap to the upside at 174 and we do know there's a high probability chance that gap is going to fill in the near future so any of these support levels could lead to a strong bounce and apple could go up there to close the gap at 174 and if it gets impulsive enough we should regain the bull trend and then we could still talk about new all-time highs at 188 but if you want to wait for a bullish breakout confirmation wait for the close back above 171.
on the financial sector we were down 0.45 percent today and the financial sector is still holding up above this very critical support level but if that level does break down we could get a bear trend but we do have a lot of bank earnings coming up so that's going to be the catalyst of whether or not the financials break out to the bull side or break down and go into a bear market look for that break back above the 50 ema and the financials to start getting more bullish on the industrials we were down 0.32 today and the industrials are still looking bearish with the price action getting rejected at the 5 ema today so wait to get bullish until we get back over the 50 ema and then we can start looking for that gap close at 106.
on the healthcare sector we were down 2 today after making a brand new all-time high so we're starting to cool down but we still have the strong bull trend so as long as we're staying above the positively sloping 20 simple moving average you can stay bullish on the healthcare sector on the energy sector we were down three percent today coming back down to our support trend line and still holding on to the bull trend and price action is still above a positively sloping 20 simple moving average so that means the energy sector is still looking bullish if we start closing below the 20 simple moving average we could see the energy sector rolling over and dying and finally going through that correction and that will be bullish for the rest of the market because this cash is much better off in other sectors that have more weight by market cap in the s p 500.
so jumping back over to the s p 500 there is going to be a very critical test of very strong support in the near future and as long as we bounce off of that support level and start blasting through resistance with impulsive price action it's still very possible we are going back into a bull market from here however if we start losing those support levels get a lot more bearish because as spy approaches 428 and closes below that level we more than likely will be in a bear market or at least a very choppy sideways market that has no trend in either direction so it's not too late for the bull market scenario so try to block out all the bear sentiment and remember if you usually go against the retail crowd you will typically make money retail is known for being overly fearful when it's the best buying opportunity and overly greedy when it's time to sell so inverse the crowd and follow the price action while the price action is no longer looking extremely bullish we are still above very critical support levels that we could easily bounce off of and regain the bull trends also don't forget that i have bank trailer with all of this market volatility i think now is the best time to be a bank member you can find out all the information and learn how to subscribe by clicking on the link in the description of the charities to you weekly and right now there is a ton of brand new tray ideas trading discord community you can find out how to join the discord server a
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