저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 찰리 멍거의 알리바바 지분 매도 여부를 다루며, 매도 확정은 아니고 분기보고서 확인 전까지 판단 보류를 권함. 멍거 관련 사실 - 데일리저널 4분기 보고서 기준 알리바바ADS 보유량이 60만주에서 최근 공시 30만주로 줄어든 것으로 보임. - 경영진 변화: 제리 잘츠만 CEO가 스티븐 마이클 존스로 교체, 멍거는 회장직을 내려놓고 이사로 남음. - 멍거가 본인 소유 데일리저널 주식 100만 달러어치를 경영진 보상용으로 회사에 기부. 매도 해석에 대한 발언 - 외국 증권은 SEC 공시 의무가 없어 홍콩 상장 주식으로 전환해 보유했을 가능성이 있음. - 발언자는 멍거가 매도했을 가능성을 낮게 보면서도, 홍콩 전환 가능성이 더 높다고 봄. - 본인도 알리바바를 과거부터 보유했으며 멍거가 매수하기 전에 이미 좋은 기업으로 언급했다고 강조. 알리바바 개인 견해 - 밸류에이션이 상대적으로 저렴하다고 봄. - 경쟁 심화로 시장점유율 압박이 있을 수 있다고 인정. - 막대한 잉여현금흐름(수십억 달러) 창출 가능성과 성장 여지를 근거로 보유 중. - 경제환경과 성장률이 기대보다 나빴다는 점도 과거 영상에서 언급했다고 함. 리스크 및 조건 - 데일리저널의 외국 증권 보유 내역 비공개 구조로 실제 매도 여부 확정 불가. - 분기 보고서 확인 전까지 결론 유보. 출연자 전망 - 멍거 개인 매매 해석보다 합리적 독자 분석을 강조. - 알리바바 장기 보유 입장 유지, 단기 방향 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
did charlie munger just dump his stock in alibaba what is going on let's dive right into what's going on you look at their fourth quarter 2021 financial filings you know what you're talking about is the daily journal corporation you can see alibaba they don't have a ton of positions alibaba was one of their top positions where they had 600 000 shares of the alibaba ads so this is what traded on the american exchanges then you fast forward to what was just filed a few minutes ago alibaba ads now only 300 000 shares what is going on with their position in alibaba did they indeed cut it by more than 50 percent well first of all you need to understand there's been some change up with the management situation here you have jerry salzman who's the ceo previously ceo and you have charlie munger who previously was the chairman of daily journal as you can tell they're both getting on in their age you know getting on in their years and what ended up happening is that you see effectively new leadership you have stephen my hall jones he's replacing jerry salzman jerry salzman has been with daily journal for 44 years he's grown the company significantly over that time so new blood coming into the company and you also see that charlie munger is relinquishing his role as chair but will remain his director here's where the language which was really interesting to pay particular attention to matters which was which he has been involved in the past including the company's securities portfolio so he is still overseeing the investments arguably one of the greatest investors of all time now interestingly in the press release i'm not going to touch upon that too much here i'm just going to mention it just another example of how charlie munger is just an incredible character is that he's taking one million dollars of his own stock in daily journal and effectively giving it to daily journal to be used as executive compensation for bringing in new management instead of looking at what most companies do which is hey we're just going to dilute shareholders you know tremendously he's saying hey i'm going to take it out of my pocket to effectively bring in new blood just talk about being an exemplar and so the question is that a lot of folks are tuning in for not only for charlie's character but also wondering like hey did he dump alibaba stock and i think it's always worthwhile to take a second and say hey no matter what he did you want to channel charlie munger you want to say like well what's what's what's his actual advice instead of just looking at individual stock picks look at you know what's what's the wisdom that he's sharing and look that's you know i have my own signed copy as well and so the point point that i'm i'm making here is that no matter what charlie munger is doing you want to say hey let's behave rationally that's what he's aiming for he's saying hey what would a rational person do what what is the right framework and the reality is i called out alibaba as a company that i like and own before i even found out that charlie munger started buying it and you could you could chronicle you know you could see my history with alibaba on youtube full disclosure you know check out my disclosure in the comment uh the description of this video and so i'm looking at alibaba and so regardless of whether or not charlie monger is indeed selling it for daily journal or liquidating their portfolio or what have you you always need to have your own fundamental analysis and i've done my own analysis saying look alibaba it's at a cheap valuation arguably and you you could check out my prior video um they aren't you know their value proposition is coming under pressure from other competitors they're potentially losing market share but this is potentially a huge cash cow you know printing billions of dollars in free cash flow and arguably the valuation's quite cheap and that's why i own it and they potentially have a nice runway for growth and i've called that out in prior videos you know you want to think rationally independently from seeing these data points that said it's also possible charlie munger has not been selling it's possible i'm not sure yet because you haven't seen their quarterly filing but it is clear that in the past daily journal also owned foreign securities and when you're filing with the sec you don't have to show what is the foreign stock that you own and what you can do with alibaba i've personally done it myself is you can convert the ads into hong kong shares if you want to so that way it trades on the hong kong hong kong exchange when you do that you don't have to show that you own those shares so on the one hand it's very possible that he's been selling alibaba stock i would be surprised because arguably there hasn't been a lot of data points in the last few months that would change the thesis in my opinion versus you know let's say a few months ago uh it's it's also possible in my opinion probably more likely is that he was converting the stock into hong kong shares but look we'll see when when the quarterly filing comes out so far it's only been the investment filing showing their u.s listed securities that they own it's very possible they converted that into hong kong shares of foreign security and i know i did a prior video talk about how daily journal had effectively levered up borrowed money on margin to buy foreign stocks and you don't know what foreign stocks they are because they don't disclose that they're not forced to do it that is something that you want to keep in mind i personally buy my foreign stocks uh you know the accounts i use are interactive brokers so you check that i don't have any sort of affiliate relationship with them at this point maybe in the future um but this is um this is a data point to consider if you are personally looking for you know foreign exchange securities versus buying on the us exchange so we'll see maybe he dumped it maybe he didn't but once again if he did even if he did dump it you got to focus on your own analysis you know you have to say okay what are the data points and i called out several months ago i said here are the data points that made alibaba stock worse you know the economic environment was way worse than i expected their competitive aspects you know their growth wasn't as fast as i expected i called that out in prior videos and so you you need you definitely need to always channel your own charlie munger try to have your own rational thought that's that's the goal here with investing have your own rational perspective once again check out the disclaimer uh in the in the description of this video and uh if you're interested in finding potential multi-baggers or you'd like to follow along with my personal financial journey go to unraveledinvesting.com where i write a weekly letter we also have an exclusive community dedicated to learning and sharing on discord once again that's unrivaledinvesting.com and
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