저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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드러켄밀러는 2022년 당시 기술주 랠리 이후 과잉 밸류에이션과 실적 붕괴 위험을 경고하며, 2000년 닷컴 버블과 유사하지만 디지털 전환이라는 구조적 성장은 다르다고 설명한다. 거품 비교: 2000년 나스닥 95% 폭락은 과대평가된 이익과 과잉 밸류에이션이 실적 붕괴와 겹친 결과였고, 현재도 자산 전반에 버블이 있다고 본다. 다만 현재는 디지털 전환(클라우드)의 장기 성장 여지가 크다고 본다. 기술주 밸류에이션: 좋은 기술주는 과거 매출의 45~50배에서 현재 10~25배로 하락했으며, 이 정도면 가격 문제는 상당 부분 해소됐다고 평가한다. 3~4년 보유하면 성장으로 밸류에이션을 따라잡을 수 있다고 본다. 가치주·실물: 2000년 말 가치 투자자들이 대거 손절했지만, 이후 3~5년간 구리 등 실물 관련주는 6~8배 상승했다. 현재도 과도한 수요 선취로 인해 성장주에서 자금이 재배분될 가능성을 언급한다. 선행지표: 주택, 트럭운송, 소매 업종이 경기 선행 지표이며, 트럭 운송주는 고점 대비 40%, 주택건설주는 50% 하락했다. 소매는 코로나 기간 과대 반영된 측면이 있지만 GDP 대비 약세로 경고 신호가 보인다고 한다. 채권시장: 중앙은행의 채권 매입으로 국채 금리가 경기 신호 기능을 상실했다고 본다. 가격-뉴스 반응(price action vs news) 지표도 약화됐다고 평가한다. 포지셔닝: 현재 공매도 포지션은 줄였고 관망 중이며, 향후 주식 공매도 재진입 가능성을 열어둔다. 달러는 6개월 내 공매도 가능성이 있다고 봤고, 에너지는 ESG 전환으로 5~10년 약세를 예상하면서도 원유 등 일부 원자재는 보유 중이다. 금은 잘못된 포지션이었다고 인정했다. 전반적으로 단기 리스크를 강조하면서도 우량 성장주의 장기 전망은 낙관적이다.
다듬은 글
think of the internet infrastructure like the railroads 150 years ago and think of the tech stocks as a company selling railroad ties building the guts of the internet so once the railroad is built while you're building the railroad your sales are going up 50 60 70 a year but once the railroad is built your growth not only doesn't go up 70 percent it goes down because on a rate of change basis you don't need any more railroad ties um so what none of us saw me included in early 2000 where a lot of these companies with estimates of 50 60 70 percent for the next two or three years their business was literally about to collapse so the NASDAQ went down 95 percent I'm not 30 95 um because you had this combination of inflated values way overestimated earnings um out there and then earnings collapse so today um you have something similar and something different so monetary policy is absolutely insane we have no QE back then our rates Ward zero they were four or five when they probably should have been six or seven no comparison so we have an asset bubble now that's not just in tech stocks it's in everything facts Dogecoin on what would maybe some of the young viewers disagree um you name it if you're an asset you've been moving um but what we also have back then you had this incredible wave from 95 to 2000 while the internet was being built what you have now is this incredible wave of digital transformation particularly moving on to the cloud and I used to say two or three years ago on some interviews well we're in like the bottom of the first or the second inning and this is a 10-year Runway um well covid um sort of jumped you from the bottom half for the first to the sixth inning well not the nine foot to the six right I think the guy from Shopify said we went from 2019 to 2030.
um in one year because of covet I think I think it was him I think the difference now is if you don't if you're a customer and you haven't moved to the cloud you're dead because who you're competing against they can just beat you because the technology is so important so now full disclosure I didn't see what was coming in 2000 coming but I am really hard up to come up with a scenario while this that this digital transformation thing is going to collapse and these SAS companies are going to go away and the biggest problem you have now is the overall bubble in asset prices and where price got to these names in particular the good news is if we had had this conversation two months ago this the good ones were like 45 or 50 times sales not earning sales they're down to there's a range I'd say now 10 to 25 times sales for the good ones so if the problem is price and in my opinion that is the problem a lot of that has been rung out and I think if you hold these names for three or four years they can easily grow into their valuations where if you held the names in 2000 a lot of these companies um you still have losses of 19 85 90 of your value the other similarity is back then I remember a lot of value managers are virtually going out of business right at the end of 2000 one of the greatest investors of all time Julian Robertson who was long value and short these crazy Tech names he basically threw in the talent said he couldn't take it anymore and stopped managing money in early 2000.
but what happened in the next three to five years was incredible companies like Phelps Dodge copper companies went up six to eight fold six to eight times for for the old industrial stuff so everything Julian was long um went up many fold and the tech stocks went down a lot we do have some similarities there today because these coveted companies beneficiaries so much demand was pulled forward that they got too high and too much ownership and as we're reopening there's also an ownership problem where there's probably more money that needs to rotate out of the secular Growers into these I'll call them reflation names but I do want to say very differently I think these things are secular Growers and they'll probably be fine long term Amazon at 3200 um is not a bubble stock not not whatsoever it's basically decent value and you can even go beyond that and look at industries that lead the economy and industries that lag the economy the obvious one that everyone knows about is housing has traditionally been looked at as the leading in this industry retail has a slightly capital goods lag and what we've done historically is actually even though you referred to me as a macro investor and many people have is we do the macro by a combo compilation of listening to companies and doing a Bottoms Up analysis of companies that lead the economy and come and I'm sorry industries that lead the economy and industries that lag the economy and if the leading Industries are turning up or turning down that's a signal and that's worked beautifully historically the other signal which I have found quite prescient for markets is the bond market um unfortunately the last 10 or 11 years the bond market has not signaled anything because the central banks took it upon themselves to manipulate bond prices which to me is the 10-year treasury has sort of been the most important price in the world and they took that price out of the equation as a signaler I remember last summer when certain forecasters had a different forecast in my own kept talking about well the bond market is saying this the bond market is saying that when the 10-year dropped all the way from 170 to 115 which by the way I did not anticipate but the bond market wasn't saying anything what was going on is central banks were buying trillions of dollars and manipulating the price of bonds so there was no signal I don't think you get that tainting if you look inside the stock market you could get it in the stock market as whole but if you do this approach where you look at Industries and you which lead which lag and you put the puzzle together it's been pressing over time and it's certainly allowed us to consistently the last 20 or 30 years outperform the FED in terms of economic forecasts I find that really interesting uh you know equities acting as kind of this synthesized predictors for certain industries and so say if you 'd understanding what's going on in housing again the economy now was kind of concretely what you'll be looking at is a publicly traded REITs is it uh you know the stocks of construction companies what does that process look like for you well there there's you don't need to get real fancy here you can just do the home builders themselves and uh with suppose a good fundamentals they've all declined 50 from the high another industry that's been incredibly depression has been Trucking um and they're down 40 percent from the high despite the fact that they're all reporting record earnings um an industry that is not that much of a leader but it's more of a leader than a laggard is the retail industry and there's been a lot in the news lately whether it's Walmart or other companies um retail that one's a little tainted you just can't take these things blindly John that one's a little tainted now because in covid retail went to 100 of the wallet from about 85 percent because we weren't going outside and traveling going to football games but even taking that into account um retail appears to be much weaker than it should be given what the so-called GDP numbers are printing so right now there's a there's a signal albeit early that there may be trouble ahead yeah so you look at truck and stocks being um uh you know down 50 and you say hmm okay this probably doesn't you know does not bode well for Trucking volumes it kind of has to be the case yeah and if it was just trucks fine but it's not just trucks it's housing it's retail it's all over the place and by the way you can't get too carried away and so that means we're gonna have a recession tomorrow morning a lot of these things have longer lead times like six months to a year yes one thing you're also getting out of here kind of when you reference that you used to be able to look at the bond markers and kind of now you can't is it seems um very true that the investors who perform really well over uh multiple decades have to shift stylistically over time and become new kinds of investors I kind of love the stories of uh you know the value investors back in the day where if you look at what Ben Graham was actually doing you're hunting for companies where the uh you know Book value is greater than the market cap of the company it was a famous you know case of Northern pipeline where they're trading at 65 a share and they just had 95 a share of stuff and railroad bonds or whatever on their balance sheet and he bought a bunch of their stock and then just yelled at them and complained until they finally dividend that I was 95 a share of their assets but that doesn't work anymore obviously you know markets have gotten a lot more efficient and you can't just buy companies that own more assets than their market cap so value investing has to change and similarly you're describing here especially you know the relationships with bonds relationships with currencies have to change and so I'm curious can you talk a bit more about how you stylistically have had to change the the tools in your toolkit that's really an excellent question and um it's very Pro it's it's right on point because when I got in the business um you could almost guarantee if a company reported lousy earnings opened down that day and closed up big that stock market was going to be higher six months from then and vice versa you could almost always guarantee if the economy looked great and Bonds were rallying that meant the economy was not going to look so great we used to call it price action versus news and it used to be an incredible indicator of security prices partly because of the efficiency partly because I think the growth of hedge funds we all learned these rules um and partly because of Central Bank manipulation price versus news is a very weakened tool versus 20 years ago much to my chagrin because I always found it a great warning signal and now is a lot of times it may be warning of nothing or warning of something that doesn't exist so that's been one thing I've had to adopt to I mean frankly when I started in the business I'm showing my age here which was the mid 70s I started in equities and I also learned particularly in Bear markets that I had to morph into bonds into Commodities into foreign currencies things like that a ake so for the golfers out there going into the situation we're describing I feel like I'm about to play around the golf without a driver and without a 60 degree wedge because bonds which have been my go-to asset in terms of of a recessionary bear Market atmosphere they may work but there's a good reason to believe things may be different this time est models so how are you positioning the fund given that you know maybe you don't feel so good about going long equities but your normal Bond toolkit is not working uh quite well is that you know is the golf thing top of mind because uh you know it's actually hard to you know to do too much uh or uh how are you positioning things well currently I'm very challenged um we were lucky enough to have made some money uh up until now the last six or eight months primarily by having a a let me call it a matrix of short fixed income short stocks and not doing a whole lot in currencies and owning some of the key Commodities particularly oil and mistakenly uh gold but copper um things are a lot harder now because we're now getting definitive signals that the economy may be weakening particularly at the front end and while I'm not comfortable owning bonds I'm much less comfortable being short fixed income to the to the degree I was three to six months ago when it looked like a much better risk reward and even stocks so many companies have been derated by 60 or 70 percent and I've lived through enough bear markets that if you get aggressive uh in a bear Market on the short side you can get your head ripped off in rallies So currently I'm I'm coming in every day and I'm looking at my screen but I'm pretty much taking a break I'm waiting for a fat pitch I'm not shooting at any pins to use a golfing analogy my anticipation is I will be going back to the short Equity position at some point if the market affords me if not hopefully I'll just sidestep a decline that's not the worst thing in the world but the fixed income Market has become much more complicated and I'm lucky enough since I plan a lot of asset classes to have the luxury of not playing in one and I don't think I'm going to be playing much in that one going forward the currency Market is incredibly interesting to me I haven't been doing much there and I'm not currently positioned aggressively there but I will be surprised if sometime in the next six months I'm not short the dollar 14 trillion dollars has come in here because we were the first to tighten there's a story about American exceptionalism I'm not sure we're so exceptional anymore and if we are I'm not sure I'm excited about what we're exceptional in so foreign exchange looks interesting we still own energy and other Commodities um Ukraine sort of gave that trade an extended life although I must say the energy because of the transition to ESG we look to be short energy for five or ten years so that could last a while
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