The Fed must temper its hawkish stance, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 시겔 교수는 실질금리 하락 추세가 구조적이라 금리 상승 우려가 과장됐고, 연준이 긴축을 늦춰야 한다고 봄. 금리 전망: 로고프 교수의 '저금리 시대 종료' 주장에 반대. 2000년 이후 실질금리 하락은 저성장, 저생산성 증가, 저인구 증가, 고령화에 따른 채권 수요 증가 때문이며, 이는 지속적이라고 봄. 연준이 덜 공격적으로 돌아서면 실질금리는 다시 하락할 것이라고 전망. 연준 정책: 연준은 인플레이션을 2%로 너무 빨리 끌어내리려 하지 말고 속도를 늦춰야 한다는 입장. 최근 고용·물가 지표(JOLTS)가 둔화 신호를 보였으니 연준이 이를 인식하길 기대. 주택시장: 주택 건설업체가 대량 구매자에게 20% 할인을 제공하고 있고 거래량이 줄었음. 공식 물가지수(PCE, CPI)는 주택 가격 하락을 제대로 반영하지 못할 것이라고 우려. 경기 둔화: 자동차 대출 등 소비 둔화 신호가 뚜렷하며, 연준이 이를 인식하고 긴축 스탠스를 완화해야 한다고 주장. 시장 반응: 주식시장 반등은 연준 완화 기대와 분기 초 랠리 때문으로 해석. 향후 고용 데이터 확인이 필요하다고 언급. 리스크: 인플레이션 목표 조기 달성 압박이 경기 둔화를 악화시킬 수 있다는 우려. 주택 가격 하락이 공식 지표에 늦게 반영될 위험. 특정 종목·자산 방향 예측: 명시적 언급 없음(금리·경기 전반에 대한 의견 위주).

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01. and Professor Siegel I know that you are of the opinion you can't time the bottom but stocks have come down significantly this might be a very good time to buy but I'd like to get you to talk about some of the comments we just heard from Ken rogoff Professor Ken rogoff um he's of the opinion that these low interest rates we've seen might be a thing of the past no matter what happens even if the fed's able to tame inflation that we have seen times in the past where we see blips of lower interest rates but that eventually they go away he thinks there's a reversion to the mean here and there are a lot of implications for what that means from everything for the markets to policy makers and what they'll be able to do do you agree with him well yeah and it was very interesting interview and I know Ken very well I I agree and I disagree uh with with a couple things he said first of all at the end he said to the FED don't get inflation down to two percent too fast uh and I agree completely with that uh uh that the FED as you know needs to go slower I have to disagree with him on the interest rate uh uh the actual decline in real interest rates really began right after 2000 and have been steady not just 2007 financial crisis and I it is due to slower real growth around the world uh slower productivity growth slower population growth I mean uh around the world all those things economists say lower real interest rates also we have an older population uh that is more risk-averse um goes more into bonds uh as you get all older that increases the demand for bonds and bonds until this year have been one of the best uh short-term Hedges against the stock market that we have and so that's another factor and so I I think that the decline in real interest rates is really much more permanent uh than He suggests and and I think real interest rates are going to go back down after the FED becomes less aggressive uh uh in its monetary policy stance you think that the FED is going to be less aggressive in the near future because that's certainly what the market seems to be indicating the equities Market at least over the last couple of days well you know I agree with uh with what Mike stent always said I think the joltz data gave the stock market a jolt uh and I hope it gives the FED a jolt to say hey you know what things are slowing a lot faster uh than uh perhaps they even thought possible I mean in today's Wall Street Journal article uh Wall Street Journal there was an article that said that home builders are offering buyers not not final buyers but uh bulk buyers 20 discounts to take homes off their hands they are not getting any traffic with the Surge and mortgage rates and the softening in prices however if you take if you know the personal consumption deflator the CPI that won't record in uh deflation in the housing index I mean we talked about those legs that's my biggest worry they're going to keep on looking at housing inflation in the official indexes while on the ground there's absolutely no question the housing is going down and that's a very very important factor we just heard of what uh on your program just a half hour ago what's going on with with uh car loans um and what that might do to car selling all the signs are there for a Slowdown the FED must recognize that and and temper their caucus uh stance I think that's really what why the market is Rally particularly first day of the quarter I was off in a rally especially if it's been sold down the week before so that was certainly Monday Tuesday I think the jolts data said just a minute really the FED is is hopefully going to get it now will it show up in the Friday data uh on uh that soon we'll have to wait and see on