저자: Cory · 외국인
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2022년 1월 21일 대규모 패닉 매도 장세를 기술적 분석으로 설명. S&P500 등 주요 지수 과매도 상태로 릴리프 랠리 가능성 제기하나 하락 추세 지속 가능성도 경고. 비트코인은 3만 달러 지지선 가능성 언급. 엔비디아·테슬라·애플 등 개별주도 지지선 및 갭 메우기 목표가 제시. 방송 말미 유료 알림 서비스(Bank Trader) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome to the stocks channel my name is cory and today in the stock market we saw mass panic selling across the board and the indices are reaching very critical support levels first up let's take a look at the s p 500 spy etf so let's crack open this chart and see what's going on in the stock market today all right so today on spy we did see mass panic selling and we were down 1.96 percent and we're right on top of that gap close which doesn't close until we get down to 436.
so the top of that gap is a support level right around 438 but at this point i think we are going to close this gap at 436 and that should be a very strong support level you can see we're trading below the 200 simple moving average and we're way below the lower bollinger bands and we're just getting way too far overdone on the selling and we're due for a very strong relief rally so looking for a relief rally you're looking for a test of the resistance trend line which is all the way up here at 462 and remember you don't want to trust this as a bull rally because there's the possibility it's a lower high and we're going to continue to trend lower you never know exactly what market condition you're going to be in and it's a downtrend until it's not remember we were in a bull market a macro level bull market for that matter and it was an uptrend until it wasn't and now we can clearly see we broke down through that uptrend and now we're starting to a very impulsive downtrend so these things don't happen by chance this is very calculated and that's why i told you to watch that very critical support trendline so now that we're breaking down through it you can see how the selling is accelerating and you can see we're going down on huge volume selling remember i said below spy 450 i think we're going to close the gap at 436 and you can very clearly see that is playing out so respect that gap support level at 436 but if it does break down that will be extremely bearish and you'll be looking for price targets at 428 and then 424.
now to the upside on the way to that resistance at 462 you will want to watch for resistance at 450 and you might also see resistance right around 458 so remember a counter trend rally after you get oversold is definitely a possibility but don't get overly bullish during a counter trend rally wait for that bullish breakout back above about 463 and then the bullish breakout confirmation back above 472.
it's a downtrend until it's not and you need to wait for that confirmation in the price action jumping over to the nasdaq 100 triple q's you can see the same exact story spy with mass panic selling going down 2.77 percent and we're back down to that critical support level right around 352. below that we're likely going down to 345 or 341 but again we're getting way too oversold we're two days way below the 200 simple moving average and we're due for a relief rally that could take us all the way back up to about 376 to 379.
above 379 you're looking for resistance at 383 and 388 and the bullish breakout will be back above about 385. so on the triple q's don't trust the relief rally as bullish until we can get a confirmation breakout back above about 3.85 remember that it's a downtrend until it's not so you're looking for the potential of a lower high and don't just expect to go right back on the bull after such a strong sell-off it's not going to happen very quickly it usually takes some time for the internals in the market to go back to being bullish so there's a very strong downtrend so watch those downward support levels with upward resistance right around 356 360 and 365 and above that you're going to have resistance right around 369.
in the dow jones we were down 1.43 today and again very similar story getting way too oversold two days below the 200 simple moving average and closing below that support at 343. the next strong support levels will be 340 and 338 with resistance at 347 349 and the gap closed right around 356.3 and we won't be bullish until we can get back above about 360.
so you can clearly see this is panic selling across the board with high volume selling and this is usually meaning that we're due for a very strong relief rally balance in the russell 2000 we were down 1.87 today and we're down to that very critical support level right around 197 below 197 we could be going back down to the 170s but i think this is a very strong support level and i do think we could rally off of this level and go all the way back up to close the gap just above 228.
on the way there you're looking for resistance at 207 212 and the resistance breakout level right around 217 and once we start breaking back above about 220 we will be looking a lot more bullish and that will be a bullish breakout on the rk etf we were down 5.73 today and we're getting close to that price target down here at 70 and if we break below that you're looking for strong support at 66.7 these are the potential price targets i gave you on rk for a potential bottom so if we see a strong bounce off of here and break back above about 87 and start closing back above 91 we could have seen the bottom in the rk etf and we actually could finally start getting out of this bear market but don't just assume that has to happen wait for the bullish price action confirmation with upside resistance levels at 78 81 and 85 on the way to those breakout levels on the vix we closed at 28.8 today with the vix spiking up you can clearly see this is a very volatile market that's going to lead to more selling usually when the vix gets this high there's the possibility we're getting close to a bottom and you're about to see the vix getting crushed so if at any point you start seeing the vix closing back below 24 that will be a bullish indication with the confirmation of the vix closing back below 20.
but as long as the vix is trading above 24 you need to be very cautious because we could be going into a bear market or a deeper stock market correction on bitcoin we're currently down just over 9.4 percent and we see bitcoin did slice through that support level at 38 000 which means bitcoin is very likely coming back down to the 30 000 support level the bullish breakout isn't until we get back above 46 000 so wait for the bullish price action confirmation because this is clearly a very strong bear trend that you don't just want to assume is going to break so right now this is a strong bear market and it looks like bitcoin is going back down to 30 000 so be patient and wait to see if that support level holds up and if you want to start accumulating at 30 000 i think that will be a strong support level to start adding at on nvidia stock we were down 3.21 today and we did close the gap at 233.
remember i told you below 253 would be a quick trip to close the gap at 233 and that's exactly what we saw if this support level doesn't hold up you're looking for another quick trip down to close the next gap at 210. now the bullish breakout isn't until we get back above 277 and start breaking back above about 289 so don't get bullish with the strong bear trend and we're clearly slicing through support levels it is still possible nvidia is going to trend down towards 210 dollars on tesla stock we were down 5.26 today and remember i did tell you below 1 000 to look for the gap close right around 940 and we're very close to closing that gap i think there's only about one dollar left if we break that support level look for a retest of 900 and below 900 you're looking for the gap closed at 8 43.
the bullish breakout is now back above about 10 40 and above 10 40 you're looking for a resistance at 1109 and then 1208 and remember earnings is right around the corner which could be a volatile market coming into tesla no matter what earnings does you can see stocks like netflix that absolutely tanked after earnings on apple stock we were down 1.28 today and you can clearly see we're getting very close to that price target at 162.
this could mark the end of the correction for apple stock and we could bounce off this level otherwise look for a break below it and a test of the next support level at 157 on a break back above 1.68 we'll be looking a lot more bullish and the bullish breakout will be back above about 170 to 172 with resistance at 176 and 180.
the financial sector was down 2.05 percent today and it is slicing through a lot of support levels and getting very close to closing the gap below if that gap closes we'll only have one gap left which will be above right around 41 the industrials are breaking down going down 0.92 today and they're back to the support trend line and you can clearly see we lost the bull trend and we're starting to roll over the healthcare sector was down over one percent today and you're clearly rolling over and looking like we're heading down towards about 128 we still have that gap way up there just around 141 but there's no guarantee when we have to fill that gap the energy sector was down 1.98 today and you could clearly see we still have bullish price action and a bullish trend but if we are starting to roll over we do have a gap to fill below so jumping back over the s p 500 these are definitely looking like very attractive prices and it definitely looks like mass panic selling which is going to lead to capitulation which is generally a great time to start buying if you're bullish on the stock market in the long term these are great prices to continue to accumulate at and as a trader you should be expecting a bounce in the short term because we are getting way too oversold and we're due for a relief rally remember that doesn't guarantee we're going back into a bull market just because we bounce from here so wait for that bullish price action confirmation breakout be safe out there and make sure you have a strict trading plan and you know what you're going to do whether the market goes bearish or bullish from here there's no room for guessing in a market this difficult and the easy days in trading are over this is now going to be more typical what you should expect from the stock market and if you're not profitable it's time to revisit your trading plan and make sure you're making adjustments as necessary use proper risk management and most of all be patient and wait for the trades to come to you also don't forget that i have bank trailer which is an algorithm driven trade alert service that sends all of your buy and sell alerts directly via email and text message and only trades the etf triple q you can see here that bank trailer it's makes money whether it's a bull market or a bear market and in a bear market like 2008 when everybody was losing money bank traders was beating the market making over 90 percent with this market volatility and the recent correction now is the best time to be a bank member if you're interested in finding out more information or how to subscribe to bank trade alerts you can click on the link in the description of the video i also have this docs general discord where i do intraday updates and analysis to help you navigate this volatile market and stay on the right side of the trade if you're interested in joining the stocks channel trading discord community you can find out how to join the discord server by clicking on the link below so thanks for watching everybody i hope you're crushing this market and as always i will see you in the next episode
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