저자: Cory · 외국인
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S&P500은 455(갭 지지)과 459 추세선 위에서 아직 거시 강세장 유지, 472 돌파 시 강세, 455 이탈 시 436 갭 메움 가능성. 나스닥100(QQQ)은 374-375 지지, 389 돌파 시 402 저항 및 신고가 목표, 369 이탈 시 360 노림. 다우는 금융주 매도로 하락했으나 361 돌파 시 추세 회복 가능. 러셀2000과 RK 등 소형주는 하락 추세 지속으로 저항 돌파 전까지 약세 경계. 비트코인은 40,600 지지 위 반등 중이나 46,000 돌파 전까지 하락 추세 유지. 엔비디아는 271 이탈 후 253/233 방향 우려, 테슬라는 1000 지지/1075 돌파 관찰, 애플은 168/176 레벨 관찰.
다듬은 글
in the stock market we're getting back to those very critical support levels that we need to hold above to maintain the macro level bull market where will we go from here l right all right so today on spy we were up point zero four percent and we did see spy closing back below the 50 ema for the second day in a row so remember we don't have the bull trend on the daily chart but we are staying above our critical macro level bull support line which is sitting here right around spy levels of 459 and we did get very close to testing that level yet again so remember the market is as simple as you want to make it out to be and right now the market is as simple as whether or not we stay above this support trend line and stay above this gap closed level at 455.
as long as spy is staying above 455 and staying above our support trend line right around 459 this is still a macro level bull market and i will prove that to you very quickly by just switching over to a weekly chart you can see this is very clearly an uptrend and you can see on this weekly chart that we are still in a positively sloping situation where price action is moving from the lower left to the upper right and we're still above the weekly 20 simple moving average and still above the support trend line so when you hear me say we're in a macro level bull market that's what i'm referring to and you never want to just assume that a macro level bull market is going to fail through support you want the price action to confirm it so going back over to this daily chart you can see why this support zone is so critical and why we need to see price action staying above that level if at any point we start breaking below spy 455 you will want to start preparing for the possibility that spy is coming down to close the gap around 436 and yes we could still go lower than that that's just a good guide to pay attention to now if spy is above 455 you still don't want to rule out the possibility that we could resume the bull market and go back to a new all-time high with a price target up there at 483 now you always want to look for higher highs and higher lows in a bull market so if we start to impulse higher from here we could easily get to that price target at 483 as early as two weeks from now and then we could still pull back and continue to go higher into the 490s and possibly even higher so if you see the price actions start to impulse higher and you start to see a breakout above 472 you will instantly want to get more bullish so the market is really that simple you're bullish above 472 and you're getting a lot more bearish below 455 with the very early warning sign the bull market is breaking down below 459.
everything in between is just going to be choppy and it's going to wear out the bears and bulls alike and i really never suggest trading chop you know the market's going to be choppy because we don't have a bear trend and we don't have a bull trend and when you don't have a trend on the daily chart you are not going to see smooth price action in either direction so we either need to wait for a bear trend in a break below 455 or we need to wait for a bull trend and a breakout above 472.
in between we'll have resistance at 465 and 470 and we'll have support at 462 and 459. you can also see that we did have increasing volume today and we did close in the green so there is clearly people still buying the dip near the support level and if you're following the stocks channel iq test you should know that you should not be panic selling at strong support levels in a macro level bull market you should be taking on risk at strong support knowing that if you're wrong you can take a small loss lick your wounds and move on and get ready for the next trade if you're panic selling out of your long positions at strong support in a macro level bull market you will feel very sour when the market runs away without you and you sold for a loss when in reality you were actually about to make a very profitable trade the market's going to wear you out and make you bored and that's going to make you make a bad decision so you need to make sure you have a strict trading plan and you're sticking to it and panic selling at strong support should not be part of your trading plan jumping over to the nasdaq 100 triple q's you can see the triple q's closed up in the green .62 today and we did test very critical support today yet again and we did see a bounce off of that level yet again so remember the critical support levels for the triple queues is down here right around 375 to 374 and we did test that level and we actually gapped down right on top of support you could see the rest is history and we closed at the high of the day so you can clearly see the triple q's are potentially putting in a higher low here the previous low was at 369 and today's low is at 375 and this is very clearly impulsive price action off the low so just like i told you on spy a lot of the same principles are going to apply and you want to see a higher high breakout which will be the triple q's breaking out above 3.89 the next logical resistance level to pay attention to is going to be strong resistance right around 402 and if we get rejected from that level and come back and break above it you will see brand new all-time highs up there with price targets around 410 and 415.
so your bullish scenario on the triple q's is very simple price action will break out above 389 and run up there to test 402 and above 402 you're looking for brand new all-time highs it's really that simple now the bearish breakdown on the triple q's means we need to break down through 374 and we need to break down below this low at 369 and then you're looking for a very quick trip to close the gap at 360.
and just like i said on spy we can still go lower than that but that will be your guideline of where to expect price action to go if we do break down below the support trendline just like on spy this is a macro level bull trend line and not a support level you want to completely ignore so if you're panic selling at this support level you're doing it all wrong and panic selling at strong support should never be part of your plan the levels to pay attention to in between the critical breakout levels will be resistance up here right around 383 and 387 and then of course the breakout level at 389 and to the downside you're looking for support at 379 376 375 and 374 and the bearish breakdown below 374 and then price action should re-test 369.
you can clearly see there's no trend in either direction so expect to see choppy price action until we get a decisive breakout in either direction a lot of trading really just comes down to patience are you going to be patient enough to wait to see which direction the market wants to go jumping over to the dow jones you can see the dow jones was red today even though we had green in the rest of the indices with the dow jones going down 0.57 percent and it did leave a gap above so that gap will feel if we get back up to that 360.5 level and this is mostly due to the sell-off in the financial sector and we did have some bank earnings today so sell the news after earnings is usually a very common thing so i'm not that surprised to see it and you can see the price action did close above the 50 ema which is our critical support level at 358 we're starting to lose the bull trend on the daily chart so the dow jones will need to get back above 361 to possibly regain that bull trend and still have hopes to break out to a new all-time high so the bullish breakout on the dow jones will be back above 361 and then you have resistance at 365 368 and a brand new all-time high at 372.
now to the downside if we break down below 358 you're looking for a re-test of the support level at 355.8 and below that a quick trip to close the gap at 3 49 and that should be a very strong support level so if we're going to see a little bit of selling in the financial sector and rotation back into the tech sector that will favor the triple q's but overall the dow jones is still looking strong and i don't expect to see it breaking down from here on the russell 2000 we're pretty flat on the day only going up 0.14 today and we did close right on top of that extremely critical level at 214 but yesterday we did close below it so we could be testing it on the other side of it testing it as resistance before another leg lower so if the small caps can't break above 214 look for a re-test of the support levels down here at 207 and 205 on a break below 212.
if price action can start breaking back above 214 decisively look for resistance at 217 in the 50 ema at 221 and the bullish breakout will be back above about 223 and then you're looking for the gap close just above 228 the russell 2000 will not be bullish until it can break back above 231 and then 234.
anything from here is resistance and you have to respect the fact that it's in a strong downtrend so there will be a lot of bears trying to short this at resistance so don't get overly bullish even though it does look like we could be attempting to close that gap in the near future which is just above 228.
jumping over to the arcade etf you can see we're up 0.33 percent today and rk did hold above that support level at 78 remember if that level breaks down we're going all the way down to 70 so you will want to watch that level very closely and yes rk is still in a very strong bear trend so the path of least resistance is still lower so on a break below 78 look for support at 70 and the bullish breakout needs to be back above 91 and then closing back above 99.
so be patient on this etf and if you're buying at support trying to go long make sure you have good risk management because we still could go to seventy dollars so watch critical support at 78 and critical resistance at 91 and 99 and below 78 you're looking for a quick trip to 70. on the vix we were down just over five and a half percent today and we did see the vix closing back below 20 so there's still the possibility this was all just a pullback and we're going right back on the bull we'll know that for sure because we'll see the vix staying below 20 and starting to close back below 18.
if the vic starts biking back above 20 be more cautious and on the vix close back above 24 we'll more than likely see a full-blown correction right now it's looking like we might have already seen the correction and we're starting to see the vex head lower so watch the price action closely on bitcoin we're currently up just over one and a half percent and bitcoin is back above the 5 vma so far it looks like we're bouncing off that support at 40 600 but we won't know we're getting bullish until we can break back above 46 000.
above 46 000 will want to see price action back above the 50 ema and eventually we'll want to see price action breaking out back above 51 000 and then 53 000. so right now we still have a bear trend and so far we don't know for sure that we're not going for another leg lower so if we break down below 40 600 look for the next support at 38 000 and below 38 000 we're going all the way back down to 30 000.
on nvidia stock we're up 1.38 today but there's nothing to celebrate here in this stock you can see yesterday we did break down below 271 and today we did get rejected from that level as resistance so it's looking more and more likely like nvidia's coming back down to 253 and if that level doesn't hold up you're looking for a quick trip down to 233 to close the gap if at any point nvidia can close back above 284 it'll be looking a lot more bullish and then the bullish breakout will be back above about 293 don't get bullish until you see the bullish price action because the path release resistance is lower and it does look like we could be coming back down to 253 and possibly 233.
on tesla stock we were up 1.75 today and we did close back above the 50 ema and we are starting to slowly lose the bull trend the bulls need to get the price action breakout back above 10.75 and we need to see a daily high back above about 1106. if tesla breaks back down below about 1033 you have strong support at 1000 and below 1000 look for the quick trip down to 940.
so you're getting a lot more bearish below 1000 and you're getting a lot more bullish above 10.75 and the breakout back above 1106 and remember we still are very close to having a bull trend we just need to see that price action breaking out and starting to run on apple stock we're up about a half a percent today and we do see apple stock holding up above this critical support level at 168.
the bullish breakout will be back above 176 and the bearish breakdown will be on a break back below 168. below 168 your price targets are 162 and 157 and above 176 you're looking for a retest of 180 and then 182 and above 182 the brand new all-time high price target of 188. we don't have the bull trends so don't focus too much on 188 follow the breakout level above 176 to get more bullish and the breakdown below 168 to get more bearish on the financial sector we were down just over one percent today and we did get a sell the news event after earnings we opened the gap above and we still have a gap below so watch to see which one fills first overall the price action and the trend are still bullish the industrials were down 0.6 percent today but we still have the bullish price action and we still have the bullish trend the healthcare sector was down 0.17 today and we're back below closing the 50 ema and we're developing a lot of bearish trending so we could still be going lower the energy sector was up 2.35 today and we still see very bullish price action and a very strong bull trend but we are starting to run into resistance here so jumping back over the s p 500 this is definitely a very critical time in the stock market testing a very critical support trend line in a macro level bull market if we break below the critical support you know to expect the full-blown correction but don't rule out the possibility that we've been correcting through november all the way into january and the correction could be coming to an end so watch that support level because as long as price action is above it it's still possible we're in a macro level bull market and we are still going higher from here you know exactly which levels to pay attention to and you know exactly where the stock market's going to go if we break out above resistance or if we break down below support so all you need now is patience and a solid trading plan also remember that i have bank trade alerts only trades the etf triple q and sends bank trade alerts is currently up over 8.9 percent in the last three months and with all of this market volatility in a brand new trading year now is the best time to become a bank member you can find out all the information about bank trade alerts and how to subscribe by clicking on the link in the description of the video i also have the stocks channel discord where i do introduce updates and analysis and bring new chat ideas to you weekly trading discord community you can find out how to join the discord server
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