저자: Henry · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아가 시총 약 7,580억달러로 급등한 상황에서 주가가 1조달러 밸류에 도달하기 어렵다고 보고, 2개월 만기 콜 크레딧 스프레드(380/385, 387.5/400)를 매도해 약 7~16% 프리미엄 수익을 노리는 옵션 전략을 실행했다. RSI 89 과매수, 볼린저밴드 확장, 테슬라 유사 밸류에이션(P/S 29)을 근거로 제시했으나, 펀더멘털 성장 자체는 긍정적으로 평가했다.
다듬은 글
what's going on guys it's henry and today i want to do a full analysis on nvidia and specifically i want to do a very specific option trading strategy on nvidia betting that the stock will not rise significantly and if it doesn't continue to rise significantly then i'm going to collect a handsome option profit the strategy that i'm going to run today is called a call credit spread it's going to involve me selling one call option and buying another call option for a total risk of 500 and that's going to bring me in a very large return we're going to see exactly how much i'm going to bring in in just a moment for first i want to give you a little bit of a simple analysis on video first of all two things that i'm going to consider on nvidia in my two cases or nvidia is a quality company at the end of the day it is growing for a reason and it has a strong position in a few key markets and i think nvidia will continue to rise however i'm going to bet that it is a little bit overvalued at this point in time now the company also benefits from macro tailwinds that's part of the reason we see it rising so much right now as well and it has a huge addressable market but the stock has gotten too hot too quick i believe growth will inevitably slow down over the coming years and shares are trading at a relatively high valuation right now so let's go into the option chain and let's take a look at some attractive options that i'm about to trade all right guys so we're going to take a look at two different things i'm gonna have my robinhood accounts open right now so i can make the trade right in front of you guys live and i'm also gonna have yahoo finance open in front of me as well now the first thing that i wanna do is i wanna look through yahoo finance specifically i like looking at the statistics because for me it's very interesting to see what evaluation nvidia has in terms of price of sales price to earnings how fast are they growing how much debt do they have we're gonna do a full analysis and actually guys the only thing that yahoo finance did an update is the market cap the market cap is actually 758 billion dollars right now so we're three-fourths of the way to a trillion dollars now is nvidia a trillion dollar company i don't know i don't think it is just yet if you guys take a look at the price of sales ratio it is 29.
so 29 prices sales ratio just to put that in perspective is basically very similar to tesla tesla was trading at 17 before the big run up now that tesla's up 50 well 50 of roughly 18 is nine so tesla's trading at roughly 27 price to sales ratio without having it open in front of me but that means that nvidia is basically a little bit more expensive than tesla in terms of growth so it's going to be pretty safe for me to sell call credit spreads at a very high strike price because well this stock is already trading for tesla like valuations i can't imagine this stock trading any more expensive than it is right now and luckily the stock is actually rising as i'm making this video if i go to the one day chart we're up 1.84 and for the week we're up 18 so i do believe that we're red hot right now and i do want to take a look at the rsi the rsi will tell me some information on if the stock is over or oversold i currently have the correlation coefficient i need to get rid of that go to indicators and click rsi right here i'm going to do 14 day rsi right now saved and we are right there in the overbought territory we're currently sitting at an 89 rsi now for some context and 80 rsi tells us the stock is overbought simply said and it is currently in 89 if you guys can actually zoom in here to this little spot right here you can see that there's a little blue area here saying that this stock is way overbought not only is it past 80 it's nearly at 90 currently and also another technical indicator that i have in terms of technical analysis and looking at charts is the bollinger band and as you guys can see uh this stock looks very similar to tesla i mean i kind of scratched my head and think is this tesla stock right in front of me in the very flush because tesla stock has a very similar bollinger band the bolinger band here actually expanded as you can see there was a very narrow bollinger band the stock was trading within a certain range and after the huge huge explosion past 300 per share the bollinger band has completely opened up you can see to the upside as well as the downside so there's a lot of question mark as what will happen with nvidia stock next now what i'm going to do in robinhood is show you how i'm going to capitalize on this opportunity right now that the stock is presenting essentially i don't think the stock can go too much higher i'm gonna click trade nvidia options i'm going to go out until january 21st which is basically just two months from today it's two months and two weeks from today now i'm doing this in a very strategic manner because basically if this trade goes well great i'm gonna hold it into january however in late december if this trade does not go well i can just close it in december and do something called tax loss harvesting tax loss harvesting will allow me to sell the option for loss and just capture some losses which will benefit my taxes since i did make a video on selling a lot of my tesla stock by accident through a covered call now i have so many gains that i don't really mind losses now i'm not out here chasing losses i don't want to purposely have a loss but if i have a loss i'm happy to sell it in late december and capture that loss in terms of tax loss harvesting for my taxes for the year of 2021.
now if nvidia is at a profit that would be great i'm not going to touch it i'm going to let it ride into january and then in january i will close the position for an official profit in january so either way it's pretty much a win-win strategy in terms of taxes but it's also going to be a win-win strategy in my opinion on collecting a good amount of premium for a very little amount of risk all right so step number one we have to sell a call option and we have to determine what strike price we're going to sell that call option for i'm going to click sell call option and again i said i don't think that this stock is going to be a 1 trillion valuation that means from the current levels it would have to rise about 33 for us to see a one trillion dollar valuation and i just can't imagine that happening in the next quarter maybe that'll happen in a year maybe that'll happen in two years but i can't imagine nvidia becoming the next tesla because it has already had a tesla-like move higher in terms of one-week chart showing an 18 gain now in terms of the one-month chart i'm sure we're also up a huge percentage 305 we started off at around 204 so we're up 33 for the month so it has already had a tesla-like move so i can't imagine that it'll continue to go up to one trillion dollars because it has already went to the moon i don't think it's going to go to the next moon or to saturn or to another planet it has already reached the moon in my opinion now we're going to sell a call option and the first thing that i want to do is i'm actually going to go buy call option the reason why i want to do that guys if you take a look over here it says to break even so robin hood tells us the percentage to break even on this option now i'm going to use this breakeven point to basically go up to around 30 return the reason i'm doing that is because again this stock at 30 would have a one trillion dollar evaluation and i don't think we're there yet so i'm gonna scroll up and try to find around 30 percent here it is around 30 is going to 387.5 dollars per share i'm going to be and be very comfortable to sell at 387 level in terms of opening up this call credit spread now the only thing is with this call credit spread i could go for 380 385 to open up a 500 spread in fact that's pretty much what i should do however what i already noticed right off the bat is because this option is so far out of the money and this is such a low likelihood of happening that the difference here in terms of the premiums is about seventy dollars so seventy dollars in terms of a five hundred dollar worth of risk so seventy dollars divided by five hundred dollars is going to be about a fourteen percent return but in fact it's going to be closer to sixteen percent because it's really seventy dollars divided by the collateral that you put in which is 500 minus the premium that you collect basically it's 70 dollars for 430 worth of risk so anyone with 430 dollars in their portfolio can make 70 on this option trade right now now 16 return is going to be a very attractive return because 16 divided by two which is basically two months from expiration is going to be about an eight percent return per month and i don't know about you guys but last time i checked the stock market returns an average of eight to twelve percent per year so if we can make eight percent per month we're going to be in a very good position to get stupid rich and by the way if you do want to get stupid rich i have a free email newsletter that you can sign up for below or you can always join the private discord community to follow my live trades now what i'm going to do is i'm thinking about selling the 380 strike i'm going to click right here for 380 but i will tell you guys i'm going to probably do two different trades so i'm looking at 380 and 385 but i'm also having my eye on 387 and a half and 400 i'm gonna explain that second trade in just a moment i also see this as a profitable trading opportunity but first of all i'm going to sell the 380 strike now i'm going to buy the 385 strike that's going to open up my call credit spread now opening up a call credit spread just means that i have the risk between the strike prices so 385 and 380 my max risk is 500 however the premium that i collect is going to reduce the collateral i have to put up going to buy the 385 and as you guys can see here it's going to be a 63 dollar credit now um 500 minus 63 is 437 so it's a very good return again it's about eight percent it's going to come out to about seven and a half percent and i'm very excited about this trade so i'm going to click continue i'm going to place this trade and after i finish this trade i'm actually going to place another trade for a call credit spread that i think is even a little bit more exciting because it has a better risk return profile boom we got phil so 65 and a 435 dollar worth of risk so i think this is a fantastic trade that i'm going to see what happens in terms of the next couple of months and in late december again if this is a loss i'm just going to close out the position and if it's for a gain i'm going to continue holding it into 2022.
now the next trade that i want to make is going to be very similar to the one that i just opened up which gave me about seven and a half percent return for a monthly basis or a total percentage return of about 15 now what i do want to do is a similar trade but now i'm going to go up to 387 and a half dollars this is actually going to protect me even more and oh my goodness nvidia is currently 308 dollars per share so it's continuing to go to the moon however i'm going to stick to my guns i'm going to open up one more contract here so i'm going to sell the 387 and a half and i'm going to buy the 400 this is actually going to be trading for a higher premium than it was previously when nvidia was 303 dollars per share because as in video goes up option traders realize that the call options are more valuable since they're closer to the money therefore selling call credit spreads is going to be more profitable or at least more premium the higher nvidia goes so now as you guys can see i'm selling the 387 and a half and i'm buying the 400 call strike now i would love to sell 390 and buy the 395 but unfortunately that's not currently available so this is the best that i can do now i'm going to be collecting about 155 dollars i'm going to click continue here because i'd rather robinhood do the math for me so this is really interesting i'm going to collect about 155 dollars for a max loss of 1 100 so essentially again i'm going to be collecting about a 14 return here cool again so i'm interested in this trade because the only way i can lose on this trade is if nvidia were to go higher than 387 and a half dollars up to 400 in that range i start to lose money at 400 i lose the entire collateral that i put up which is 1 100 and in this scenario the only way that this happens is if nvidia will hit a one trillion dollar valuation in the next two and a half months now because i don't think that's likely this is going to be a trade that i'm comfortable making boom so i just got filled again 150 for 1100 worth of risk these are the option strategies that i use to grow a small portfolio and i'm very excited about this trade i will keep you guys updated and again if you do want to follow my live trades then you can always join the private discord thank you so much for watching and i'll see you guys in the next one
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