저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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버핏의 아마존 투자 발언을 분석하며 가치투자의 본질을 설명한 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 아마존 투자는 가치투자 원칙에 부합하며, 가치투자는 현금 창출력에 집중하는 것이라는 주장이다. 주제 1 - 아마존 매수의 의미: 버크셔 투자 담당자가 아마존을 샀고, 버핏은 이를 가치투자로 인정했다. 가치투자 소멸론은 틀렸다는 입장. 주제 2 - 가치와 장부가/PER의 관계: 가치는 장부가나 낮은 PER과 무관하며, 최종 심판일까지 기업이 창출할 현금이 핵심이다. 주제 3 - 회계 기준의 문제: 2018년 도입된 회계 규칙으로 버크셔의 보고 이익이 분기마다 크게 흔들리며(291억~-~), 이익 기반 가치평가의 한계를 지적했다. 주제 4 - 모든 투자는 가치투자: 찰리 멍거의 말을 인용해, 투입 원금보다 더 많은 돈을 회수하려는 행위는 모두 가치투자라고 설명한다. 주제 5 - 소형 투자자의 이점: 버핏은 거액 자금 때문에 대형주만 살 수 있지만, 소형 투자자는 더 넓은 투자 기회를 가진다. 주제 6 - 능력 범위(Circle of Competence): 이해하지 못하는 기업에는 투자하지 않는 원칙이 중요하며, 버핏은 인터넷 초기와 구글을 놓친 것을 후회했다. 주제 7 - 실천 방법: 일상에서 사용하는 제품·서비스(예: 윈도우 → 마이크로소프트)에서 투자 아이디어를 찾으라고 권한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목에 대한 단기 가격 전망은 없으며, 장기적 관점의 원칙 제시에 집중한다. 리스크/조건: 특정 기업 매수 추천이 아닌 교육적 관점의 영상이다.
다듬은 글
hello everyone and welcome back to another video in today's video I want to show you all what Warren Buffett himself had to say about birkar hathway purchasing Amazon so I just wanted to make this video to show all of you exactly what Warren Buffett himself had to say about this investment so let's just talkop right into it this question is from Ken scarbeck in Indianapolis he says with the full understanding that waren had no input on the Amazon purchase and that relative to birkshire it's likely a small stake the investment still caught me off guard I'm wondering if I should begin to think differently about Berkshire looking out say 20 years might we be seeing a shift in investment philosophy away from value investing principles that the current management has practiced for 70 years Amazon is a great company yet it would seem its heady shares 10 years into a bull market appear to conflict with being fearful when others are greedy considering this in other recent Investments like stoneco should we be preparing for a change in the price versus value decisions that built Berkshire yeah yeah it's interesting that the term value investing came up because I can assure you that both managers who and one of them bought some Amazon stock in the last quarter which will get reported another week or 10 days he is a value investor the idea that value is somehow connected to book value or low price earnings ratios or anything as Charlie has said all investing is value investing I mean you're you're you're putting out some money now to get more later on and you're making making a calculation as to the probabilities of getting that money and when you'll get it and what interest rates will be in between and all the same calculation goes into it whether you're buying some bank at 70% of Book value or you're buying Amazon at some very high multiple of reported earnings the people making the decision on Amazon are absolutely much value investors as I was when I was looking around for all these things selling below working capital uh years ago so that has not changed the two people that one of whom made the investment in Amazon they are looking at many hundreds of Securities and they can look at more than I can because they're managing less money and their their Universe possible universe is is is greater but they are looking for things that they feel they understand what will be developed by that business between now and Judgment Day in cash they are absolutely following value principles they don't necessar neily agree with each other or agree with me but they are very smart they are totally committed to burshire from this first point we can see that Amazon was bought by a value investor who works for birkshire hathway Warren Buffett himself just admitted that birkshire buying Amazon was in fact a value investment this is very interesting because there's a lot of people out there who think value investing is dead or that value investors can't invest in businesses like Amazon this could not be further from from the truth value investing is simply paying attention to the amount of cash a business will generate for you as an owner from now until Judgment Day or essentially until you die if the underlying business will generate you more cash than you're paying today in a reasonable amount of time with a reasonable amount of certainty then you have a value investment investors today still get this whole idea wrong they think that a high price to earnings ratio means that you can't invest in a business under value investment principles which leads us very nicely into Point number two value is not connected to book value or price to earnings ratios after the first point we can see why this makes sense an investment should simply focus on how much cash you as an owner are going to get out of the business you're looking to invest in we can use Book value or price to earnings ratios to help guide us but they should never be a limiting factor in our analysis sometimes with investing in today's world price to earnings ratios don't even give us a true indicator of the business's earnings we can actually used Warren Buffett's birkshire hathway as a wonderful example of this in Warren's 2019 letter to shareholders he wrote this birkshire earned 81.4 billion in 2019 according to generally accepted accounting principles commonly called Gap the components of that figure are 24 billion in operating earnings 3.7 billion in realized capital gains and a 53.7 billion gain from an increase in the amount of net unrealized capital gains that existed in the stocks we hold each of those components of earnings is stated on an after tax basis that $ 53.7 billion gain requires comment it resulted from a new Gap rule imposed in 2018 that requires a company holding Equity Securities to include in earnings the net change in the unrealized gains and losses of those Securities as we stated in last year's letter neither Charlie Munger my partner in managing birkshire nor I agree with that rule what this essentially means is that now burar has to report the unrealized gains or losses in the stocks that they hold and for those of you who may not know birkshire hathway holds hundreds of billions of dollars of unrealized gains in stocks this simply just means that after 2018 with this new accounting rule berkshire's reported earnings swing wildly and if we go and take a look at birkshire hathway and their most recent quarterly reportings we can see this is actually happening in the two most recent quarters the earnings have swung from 29.1669 billion and losses in the span of just one quarter so if you're trying to Value Burkshire based on reported earnings and price to earnings ratios that swing like this then you will never get an accurate picture of the true value of birkshire this is just one example of why we should never put too much weight on any One Financial Ratio or number instead we should always look at the underlying business what it produces in cash and what its estimated future looks like the third key point is all investing is value investing this quote actually comes from Charlie buker what they mean by this quote is literally that all investing is in fact value investing if you're investing in something your goal is to make more money than you put in thus producing you a gain on your initial investment as a value investor that's all we're ever trying to do we focus on the underlying businesses and what they will produce for us in cash over a long period of Time Warren likes to constantly refer to his farm analogy when he talks about buying stocks because he sees buying stocks just as buying a real business as we all should in his farm analogy he says that all you have to do is look at how much the farm will produce for you in cash and in how long you wouldn't buy a farm for $1 million if it were only going to produce you $10,000 in cash every year because then it would take you 100 years to get your money back however if the same $1 million Farm were producing $100,000 a year for you then that would be another story because after 10 years you would have made all of your money back and then from that point on for the rest of your life you would be making a pure $100,000 profit every single year off that investment this is what value investing is and it applies to businesses listed on the stock market or Farm out in the middle of nowhere every time you invest you're looking at how much and how quickly you'll get your money back versus the price you're paying today that is what they mean using this logic Burkshire investing in Amazon simply means that they believe they are going to be able to get more money out of that investment than they put in and in a reasonable amount of time thus making it a value investment the fourth point is the other guys can look for more opportunities than Warren can why this is important is because we are the other guys and girls Warren says this because he is dealing with hundreds of billions of dollars now which means he can't effectively deploy all of that money into smaller businesses the other people in birkshire are using smaller sums of money so their field of opportunity is much wider since they can invest effectively in much smaller businesses Warren is essentially saying here that he is limited to buying big businesses which ultimately means he can't execute on as many good Investments think about that we as smaller investors now have more opportunities in the market than the best investor ever if that's the case then we should be expanding our field of opportunity and not leaving smaller cap businesses off the table for our own portfolios however what I do find funny about this is that Amazon is actually a massive company which Warren could have thrown billions and billions of dollars in so personally I don't think that this point actually applies to the Amazon investment but it is still an important point for all of us smaller investors nonetheless the fifth and final point is that the people in birkshire who bought Amazon did so because they feel like they understand it as a business this is such a key point for every investor because confidence in your Investments comes from knowing what you own if you don't know what you own then you will be affected by the next person you talk to who gives you their opinion on what it is you own Warren also calls this your circle of competence Warren's circle of competence is also why he himself has never invested in Amazon and why someone else in birar had to do it Warren doesn't invest in what he doesn't understand and he is perfectly fine to miss out on some opportunities if he cannot personally understand them if you don't understand what you're investing in then how can you accurately predict when you're going to get your money out of the business and how much it can potentially grow he also admits that he didn't understand the internet sector back in the early 2000s which again is why Burkshire didn't take advantage of businesses like Microsoft or Google early on Warren is also still using a flip phone not an iPhone or a touch phone so I think it's pretty clear that he may not understand the potential of the iPhone if he himself would never even use one how we as smaller investors can apply this point to our own investing is simply to invest in what we know for example I use Windows computers and that's actually what I'm using to make this video right now since I use Windows computers and I understand how important computers are in today's society I can look into Microsoft which owns Windows as a potential new investment simply by paying attention to the things we personally use consume or love we can find new potential Investments listen closely to what Warren and Charlie both have to say about the missing out on Google because you'll see exactly what I mean by this Warr and I are a little older than some people and yeah near everybody and we're not the most flexible probably in the whole world and of course if something is Extreme as this internet development happens and you don't catch it why other people are going to blow by you and I don't mind not having caught Amazon early the guy is kind of a miracle worker it's very peculiar I I give myself a pass on that but I feel like a horse's ass for not identifying Google better I think war in feels the same way yeah we we screwed up he's saying we blew it and we did have some insights into that because we were using them with Geico and we were seeing the results produced and we saw that we were paying $10 a click or whatever it might have been for something that at a marginal cost of them exactly zero and and uh we saw it was working for us so we can see in our own operations how well that Google advertising was working and we just sat there sucking our thumbs so we're ashamed we we atone we're trying to atone maybe Apple was atonement when he say sucking her thumbs I'm just glad didn't use some other example Charlie and Warren are kicking themselves for missing out on Google when it was such a great opportunity for them they were personally using Google and seeing great results from advertising through them despite the two using Google in their own businesses and getting fantastic results they still didn't consider investing in it and it blew right past them what you and I can learn from this is to pay attention to the world around us what we're using and where the world is Heading by paying attention to our own personal habits and things we use and consume we can find great new investment opportunities so I'll leave you with a question what are you using today that you think will only continue to grow and add value to the world in the future and could this be something you could see yourself investing and profiting from by asking ourselves these questions we can start thinking like some of the best investors who ever lived and that is pretty much going to wrap up the video and if you enjoyed this video or you found it helpful then please remember to just leave a like on it leaving a like on the video really helps out my channel and I really appreciate it and with all that being said again I really hope you enjoyed this video and I also hope to see you again in my next one
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