Tom Lee Finally Admits It’s Over & Shares a Massive Update on the Bitcoin and Ethereum Sell-Off!

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2026년은 2025년과 유사한 흐름이 예상되며 초반 강세 후 조정이 오고 이후 10% 이상 반등 가능. 경기침체보다는 정책 충격 성격의 하락 가능성. 가상자산은 10월 대규모 디레버리징(자동 청산)으로 큰 폭 하락했으나 매도 국면은 끝에 가깝다고 봄. 이더리움은 단기 2,400달러 터치 후 바닥 가능성 제시. 금 등 귀금속 고점 시 위험선호 자금이 가상자산으로 돌아올 수 있다고 언급. 블록체인 기반 금융 인프라 확산이 장기적으로 긍정적이라는 견해.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. What the hell is going on? Bitcoin is crashing today. Can you tell us can you tell us a little bit about the crypto market over the last 3 or 4 months? I don't know. What's your story for why it's been so directionless over the last few months? This market analysis features a major update from Tom Lee who just shared his latest insights on the current state of the crypto market.

02. He breaks down why Bitcoin is dipping, what's really behind this recent crash, how the ongoing sell-off could impact Ethereum over the coming months, and his broader outlook on where the market is headed next. Let's dive in and hear exactly what he has to say and why it matters right now. We just think 2026 will look like last year.

03. So, um, our base cases, we are strong in the first part of the year, okay? But then we have a draw down that feels like a bare market. Okay, but we'll rally strongly and I think at least a 10% gain, maybe more. Now, if you have a decline and it's not leading to an economic downturn, those declines are usually V-shaped and symmetrical.

04. Okay. Do you think that this one this year that I mean it's we have one every year. You think this one might have the potential to be based on an economic decline or probably not? Uh I I I if I was guessing because it's like I'm just guessing we're all guessing. Yeah, we're guessing. They're educated guesses.

05. That's what we're doing. Yeah, it's educated guess is that it can be a a policy shock like something coming from the White House or the market testing the new Fed. Okay. Or both. But that is probably like last year then. So, it's a market decline because people take risk off the table, but it's not really an economic downturn.

06. So, walk us through what you're telling people they should expect in 2026. I I think it's a lot like 2025. um fundamental stories better, but one difference is instead of a hawkish Fed, we have a Fed that eventually the market will realize is dovish because we have a new Fed share and they're also not inclined to hike anymore.

07. Yeah. So, that's a positive. Uh but the negatives are there are some signs of stress in the economy now because of high rates, whether it's consumer or private credit. And we know valuations are more expensive because we have three years of gains behind us back to back, right? And I I think that this is the year where we've seen more policy shocks coming.

08. I think the White House is being more aggressive. I don't know if it's because they want to get things done before the midterm. I would imagine that's part of it. Yeah. And and so that makes it harder for people to hold things with conviction. Okay. So I think all of that means the market can look like last year which we have a big draw down.

09. However, there is good news you know um the rule of first five days which is on the right side on the tailwind side. Yeah. It came in positive. Okay. Which is a good thing but the first five days were upwards. Yes. Okay. But we just completed some additional work and Matt Sermino probably has like similar stats.

10. But if the first week is positive and then the first month is positive, the probability of an upyear jumps to like 92%. What the hell is going on? Bitcoin is crashing today. Can you tell us can you tell us a little bit about the crypto market over the last three or four months? I don't know. What's your story for why it's been so directionless over the last few months?

11. Uh yeah, crypto was doing well until October. What? So do you buy buy that story, the option story? A few things happened in October. Okay. Um so crypto was actually up like 36% and then from October to the end of the year it actually had a in some cases like a 40% draw down. Yeah. Uh one was there was a big deleveraging.

12. There was a a basically a pricing exploit that took place on one crypto exchange that led to a what they call an automatic deleveraging. Then that cascaded across all the crypto exchange and it was the biggest deleveraging event in the history of crypto bigger than what happened with FTX after SB. So what happened the people with leverage got unwound and they were forced out of longs and it kind of wrecked the wrecked the trend.

13. Correct. And it was a it was a pricing error, but it liquidated over 2 million accounts globally. Um, it wiped out, I think, a third of all market makers, which are important for they're the equivalent of central banks, and it crippled a lot of crypto exchanges. So, their balance sheets had took a huge hit.

14. Coinbase is in a 50% draw down. I think it's second 50% draw down since coming public. Well, there's other things happening. So like in Bitcoin, I think there is a a turning of the holders cuz one of them is, you know, Bitcoin's like 14 years old. So like the the the crypto punk, the 20-year-old is like becoming a mature person

15. and and and many of them made fortunes. Yeah. So there they've been selling their Bitcoin. Okay. Um and then as you know there's this quantum risk that is more Bitcoin specific uh because quantum developments are are accelerating. Yes. And about a third of Bitcoin wallets are not upgradable. So they're actually quantum vulnerable.

16. People are just seem totally done. And I know crypto is so weird that it can get its mojo back in 2 seconds for no reason. Could be up 15% tomorrow for all I know. But man, it looks like it's on the mat. It is right at multi-month support and it just looks pretty gnarly right now. Uh yeah. So one actually from a technical perspective crypto is this is what Tom Demar actually is expected.

17. So he's been hired as an adviser at Bitmine and he actually told us Thursday was an important day and it turns out today was an important day because we've had a big decline in in crypto. Um, but this is more akin to the end of the selling, not the beginning. So, so you don't think that we're seeing another leg lower?

18. Well, for instance, Ethereum might go to 2400, but it's a touch and then that's the bottom, but that's going to coincide with precious metals peaking. I mean, remember, precious metals has sucked all the risk appetite out of speculation, out of crypto, right? But there is a really big story um around blockchains which is Wall Street dismissed blockchain and crypto as like uh just experiments but now financial institutions are rebuilding settlement layers using blockchains.

19. That's what standard charter said at Davos. The UBS CEO says that in a few years there's a convergence between digital assets and traditional finance because blockchains offer finality and a lot more security. And and Larry Frink says he thinks that the entire financial system is going to operate on one common blockchain.

20. But why is that good for Bitcoin? Well, it's pro it's probably good for Ethereum. Okay. Because Ethereum is You wouldn't be talking your book now, would you, Tom? I haven't written a book on that. So good at this. Tom Lee continues to believe that 2026 will be a very important year for Bitcoin, even if prices look stuck or are dipping right now.

21. He stresses that short-term weakness doesn't change the long-term upside. What we're seeing today is mostly market uncertainty pushing prices lower, which is completely normal in this asset class. He also points out that Ethereum is still misunderstood by many. But once a massive influx of capital enters the market, both Bitcoin and Ethereum could skyrocket.

22. The key is to stay in the game, avoid panic selling, keep a long-term mindset, and remain positioned for what's coming next. Ever wished you learned about Bitcoin sooner? Now is your chance to do better for your kids or young family with this simple Bitcoin teen ebook. Link in the description.