저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
SK하이닉스 미국 ADR이 급등한 배경으로 Barclays의 상향 리포트(목표가 $330, 비중확대)를 꼽음. 메모리 공급 부족·HBM 경쟁력·자사주 매입 가능성을 근거로 제시. 한국 상장 시 적정가 450~500만원 언급. 다만 국내 대비 프리미엄(50% 이상)과 Rights/유상증자 40조원 부담, 공매도 영향으로 단기 변동성이 크다고 설명.
다듬은 글
Okay, next keyword. Second keyword. This time, the SK Hynix ADR explosion during the New York regular admissions . Why did it explode? Now, this part is very important. SK Hynix's share stock price skyrocketed. But what is the reason? Now, to summarize the analysis, many media outlets and analysts in the New York stock market attribute the reason for SK Hynix's rise overnight to the Barclays effect.
Barclays. Barclays. It is an investment bank that is very active on the New York Stock Exchange, and it is a British bank. Barclays. Barclays Bank suddenly released a report stating that SK Hynix's stock price would double. As soon as that report came out, SK Hynix's ADR stock price skyrocketed . Then what is the content of that report?
No, Reizel, you look a bit down and unhappy because the SDR is skyrocketing. I mean, SDRs are skyrocketing, so why would I have a reason to be in a bad mood? Our Lady Reizel. Uh, I'll make sure to keep my facial expressions under control. I am not at all concerned about the stock price going up or down .
I am just an economist who analyzes; I haven't placed a short position myself. I do n't even have time to short sell. So, I guess you sent that comment to make me laugh, ah, I'll do it with a smile. Hynix's stock price has risen significantly. Viva. Viva. Viva. yes. The story is that Barclays' stock price rose significantly after releasing an investment report predicting that it would more than double.
Let's take a look at that report. Okay, it's Barclays. I have submitted an investment report on increasing the weight of SK Hynix, "Live More, Live More." At the same time, the stock price doubles. It was reported that it would double, or at the earliest, within a year. Actually, it is not easy to issue a report like this that is so specific about prices doubling .
Anyway, a report like this has been released, so what is the basis of that report ? What is the basis? I mean that I increased the weight and overweighted it. The reason is that memory supply is still insufficient right now. There are a lot of people in management. Pricing power still lies with semiconductor companies right now .
Next, a strong position in high-bandwidth memory, high-bandage memory, and HBM . Isn't this something we all already know? Now, however, recently SK Hynix's stock price has undergone a significant correction due to rumors that the company is failing or that the semiconductor industry is over. It can be interpreted that after undergoing a correction, Barclays firmly released a report with such conviction, prompting the market to realize, "This isn't right," and consequently, the stock price rose significantly in New York.
Now, according to Barclays, following the Barclays Sense NASDAQ comparison, SK Hynix's stock price has room for further increase. And they suggested a target price of $330 . What is the target stock price right now ? Did n't it list at $150 just a few days ago? I was staggering back and forth. However, if we simply bring the story of $330, which is nearly double the level, to Korea, there is an analysis report by Barclays stating that if the prices of SK Hynix in Korea become equal, it could go up to about 4.5 million to 5 million won.
Now, these Barclays analysts say that SK Hynix's core growth driver is the memory supply shortage across the IT industry, which will lead to rising product prices and cause prices to fall in the third and fourth quarters, but they won't fall. Although the rate of price increase may slow down slightly, it can still be viewed as a positive factor .
Now, CMBC even interviewed this person named Simon Coles from Barclays . Therefore, with the release of the customer notes, the gross profit margin is expected to rise in the short term . This implies that prices will increase slightly. But Bloomberg viewed it as a bit sluggish, didn't he? The biggest difference is that HBM prices are still rising.
HBM Bloomberg viewed it somewhat negatively. However, I mentioned a few days ago that Bloomberg viewed Barclays negatively . I will refresh the air once again . But what are you talking about, Barclays ? We think differently from Bloomberg . The price is going to go up. SK Hynix's position is very strong, and the fact that it listed on the regular ADR in New York will be helpful.
Let's wait and see. Sales in 2027 will be much higher in terms of actual performance . It will be higher than market expectations . So, Barclays asks Bloomberg, "Shall we make a bet?" It is being reported that such a story was told . Okay, a little yes. yes. A little more puppy doll. Since the puppy doll isn't coming out, how should I hold this puppy doll ?
Why isn't the puppy doll coming out? yes. I received a complaint in the comments saying that Puppy Hyung is n't appearing . Oh my. yes. Puppy doll. yes. I saved a puppy. Oh my, I'm sorry. There is someone else taking care of a dog like this. Uh, since I was born in the Year of the Dog too, would it be a good idea for you to look at me as cute if I don't give up on this puppy ?
I am a dog, too. So , sales will go up much more in 2027. Now, there is also talk that SK Hynix likely launched a share buyback. Now, if you buy back your own shares, it is n't a suicide stock. Treasury stock. When a company buys back its own shares, the stock price generally rises. Then, right now SK [clears its throat] is overflowing with money.
It will hold cash equivalents exceeding 40% of its market capitalization . It means they are buying their own stock with those cash assets. So, if you buy back your own shares, the EPS per share will go up again. SK and Hanik have conducted a lot of paid-in capital increases as they go public in New York.
A whopping 40 trillion won is currently acting as a major trigger for the short-term decline in stock prices . However, they are now saying that if money circulates a bit, they might consider treasury stock . Well, besides that, CNBC is covering investor reactions regarding public opinion on SK Hynix .
So, currently, there is something called that stock tweet. There are tweets that receive opinions from investors. Looking at it, retail investor sentiment toward SK Hynix was neutral over the past 24 hours, but recorded a very high level as of the time of writing. This means that right now, U.S. investors on Stock Twitter are asking, " What is this article about?" Barclays says SK Hynix's stock price will double.
I am watching that article very closely . Isn't that the gist of it? Now, this optimistic outlook from Barclays aligns with the overall sentiment on Wall Street, and currently, here, there is another important financial information platform . Let me introduce this one as well . There is a place called Koipin.
Hoyfin Data quickly captures public opinion as well as the views of investors and experts; out of 37 analysts, 36 issued a buy or strong buy recommendation, while only one issued a hold opinion. That's the story. At least if you look at the CNBC or Barclays reports, you'd think, " What on earth is this ?" Why has SK Hynix dropped recently?
Now, in a survey by Start asking which memory stock will record the highest return over the next year, 22% selected SK Hynix. Micro is 56%. Americans are still Micron. Our American company. However, SK Hynix's percentage is second, but it has gone up a lot recently . In that sense, SK Hynix is settling in the U.S.
You can view it like this. So, then, what exactly is the secret of short selling ? Now, the difference between the NASDAQ ADR price and the Korean price for SK Hanik is too large. That difference originally has a premium. So, I told you from the beginning that SK Hynix's NASDAQ stock price would be significantly higher than its KOSPI stock price in Seoul .
Based on TSMC, it is about 15 to 20 percent higher, and in the case of some companies, it is more than 50 percent higher. However, looking at the mid-to-long term, since Korea has fewer regulations than Taiwan and SK has better market access than Taiwan's TSMC, couldn't the premium difference with TSMC narrow further in the mid-to-long term?
I see it that way. However, in the short term, there is a bomb called short selling. Short selling also has two faces. It is a bad factor in the short term, but short selling is coming to an end right now. And if the price rises as it is now, a short squeeze will occur, so the stock price may rise further due to short selling.
Anyway, let's take a look at what short selling is all about. Now, let's look at the SK Hynix stock price. Currently, regarding the stock deposit sentiment, if we look at the premium, the stock price has been canceled by more than 50% compared to the current Korean stock price. I threw it away because it exceeded 50%.
During the night. However, since SK Hynix in Korea will soon be listed and trading will begin, if the price rises further, the price gap will narrow. 50% is very unusual. But anyway, is n't there still a difference? No one can predict how much it will narrow, or whether the premium will increase further if Hynix's stock price in Seoul falls, but looking at the current situation, it appears that this premium gap will decrease somewhat today .
Now, the important thing is that you should not do it every single day . In fact, didn't the ADR rise 23% in one day and then drop 3 points to 9.3% the next ? I'm telling you, since Seoul fell, it fell along with it. In that respect, there is no need to be so concerned, but there is a short-selling mechanism of its own here.
Now, 1 ADR of Hynix on the New York Stock Exchange is 10 minutes in Seoul. Therefore, you have to collect ten to make one week of Seoul. It's been a week, and right now, right here . Once the ADR is listed, in the mid-to-long term, since Korea's SK Hynix is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, more passive funds will flow in from the New York regular market.
So, it is a factor that could cause stock prices to rise further in the mid-to-long term. However, this is a medium- to long-term matter. Right now, they dropped a bombshell of a whopping 40 trillion won in paid-in capital increase during the listing process . TSMC didn't do that . TSMC did not face a paid-in sperm bomb because it sold the existing shares held by Philips.
In 1997. But our SK conducted a 40 trillion won paid-in capital injection. In that process, didn't the earnings per share (EPS) drop sharply right away ? So, from the perspective of New York's core, there was a theory that it would be bad news in the short term, and there is another important point here.
The important point here is that the people trading in the world's largest derivatives market are those who trade using futures and options, aren't they? They are true betting giants who trade on a large scale with small amounts of money. For them, price differences are extremely important, and short selling is also important.
As I mentioned a few days ago on Thursday and Friday for two consecutive days, if UBS, a Swiss bank, lists SK Hanik in Korea on ADRs, short-sell all SK Hanik shares in Seoul in the short term . Sell what you have. Sell it and use the money to go to New York. You remember I posted reports twice recommending that you buy New York ADRs, right?
What I mean is, it is difficult for these people to trade these derivative products in Seoul. Because of the time difference and also because all the money is in the U.S. However, the U.S. can now directly access South Korea's memory semiconductors . So, a huge number of derivatives investors are flocking in.
Although it is not as much as the influx of Korean Rebels, a large number of derivative products are still flocking in. Now, amidst all this, there were concerns that the valuation of AI biotech was high. On top of that, there is a lot of expenditure in the semiconductor sector. Big Tech companies were in a state of such concern.
Given the current situation, memory semiconductors have fallen significantly in Seoul. It dropped significantly after relisting, falling by as much as 15%. It rose 13% in New York. It suddenly fell. Now, it can be seen that strong intraday profit-taking and the liquidation of profits had a decisive impact .
The reason for short selling is that the supply of short-term ADRs in New York is basically limited. Only 2.5% of the total shares are out. However, [clears throat] with the SK Hynix ADR in New York, you can change Seoul at any time . However, you cannot exchange ADRs with Seoul stocks. Doesn't the price difference arise from the ease of access ?
But right now, a Rebelge has exploded in Seoul. Now, did n't I mention this earlier? Right now, it's Reblige. It 's easy to think that with Revligi, it goes up a lot when it rises and down a lot when it falls. That is not it. It rises less when it goes up . Even more than expected. When it goes down, it goes down even more.
Why is it more dangerous when the Rebelge is descending? I will discuss this in the following section on short selling and Revlige analysis . Currently, prices are falling due to fears that the semiconductor market might be unfavorable . In a situation where it is under some downward pressure, and since there is a lot of Reblige in Seoul and fear of Reblige in Seoul, evacuate Seoul for the time being.
Go to ADR. why? For one thing, ADR does n't have the fear of revile, does it? In that regard, for those currently investing in both Seoul and the U.S., short-selling Seoul and selling everything, and there was a UBS report called ADR Roca . But this doesn't last long. That is why you don't need to worry too much about this .
I short-sold, and if stock prices rise in Korea today just like they did in New York, Then, short covering volume arises in response to short selling. In some cases, a short squeeze may occur. Therefore, ultimately, in the mid-to-long term, the prices in Korea and the U.S. will remain parallel, with the U.S.
being higher by the amount of the premium minus the difference . However, since there is currently a Rebel Shock, please be careful in the current situation. But the leverage shock in Seoul will likely be resolved eventually, too. The topic of short selling came up from that perspective. Now, regarding this part, I will talk about financial stocks first, and then immediately follow up with more . ruler.
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