저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 마크 페이버는 2017년 하반기 미국 시장 조정 가능성을 경고하면서도 장기적으로는 인도를 가장 선호한다고 밝힘. [글로벌 증시 전망] 2017년 상반기 아시아·유럽 증시가 강하게 올랐고 미국 증시도 높은 수익을 냈으나, 초저금리 환경에서 이런 상승은 지속이 어렵다고 봄. 하반기 미국 시장은 조정 또는 주도주 교체 가능성이 있다고 언급. 기존 주도주(페이스북, 아마존, 넷플릭스, 애플, 구글 등 FAANG)와 반도체주가 하반기에 부진할 수 있다고 함. 향후 주도 업종은 아직 확신하지 못하며 2~3개월 더 지켜봐야 한다고 말함. [인도 시장] 인도 증시는 사상 최고치 이후 박스권 조정 중. 인도는 올해 최고 성과 중 하나였으나 단기적으로는 조정 가능성이 있다고 봄. 장기적으로 인도 경제 펀더멘털은 우호적이며 과도하게 비관적일 필요는 없다고 함. 루피화는 올해 강세였으나 약세 전환 가능성이 있다고 봄. 10년 투자 시 미국과 인도 중 하나를 고른다면 인도를 택하며, 인도가 미국을 상회할 것이라고 확신. [인도 은행·금융] 인도 은행 부실채권 해결을 위한 시간제한 절차 도입과 RBI의 12개 계좌 선정을 언급. 금융주 전반에 긍정적이며 특히 은행과 보험사가 장기적으로 재무구조를 정리할 것으로 봄. 인도 은행 시장의 장기 잠재력은 크다고 평가. 기술 변화로 기존 금융기관 중 변화에 대응하는 곳만 잘 될 것이라고 봄. [섹터·자산배분] 금융주는 수년간 부진하다 최근 상대 강세 전환, 긍정적 전망. 자산배분에서 부동산 25% 유지. 인도 부동산은 일부 이미 고평가이나 가치 상승 여지가 있는 부동산에 집중할 것. [원자재] 원자재는 전반적으로 부진했으나, 금은 2017년 상반기 달러 대비 약 7~8% 상승. 일부 농산물은 매우 낮은 수준으로 하반기 반등 가능. 글로벌 성장 둔화(특히 미국)를 이유로 산업용 원자재에는 다소 신중. 금 자체에 대한 명확한 방향 전망은 제시하지 않음. [리스크] 단기 인도 조정 가능성, 미국 증시 조정 및 주도주 교체, 초저금리 환경의 지속 가능성 문제.
다듬은 글
let's invite Marc Faber editor and publisher of the boom boom and doom report and of course the well known market guru mark good morning you have been bullish on India for a really long time does GST reinforce your thesis or are you worried about the near-term disruption in the stock market in u.s. dollars has been one of the best performers this year we're up over 22% so I think that in the world where we have these artificially low interest rates I think the market is maybe now kind of a little bit ahead of itself and may have a correction but I think the long term still looks promising mark our mornings so the Indian markets hit an all-time high and then they entered into a period of consolidation we've been in this 200 point band for a while now do you see this continuing or do you see fresh highs again we look at markets around the world equity markets around the world in 2017 we had very strong performance in Asia and as I said in India and we had very strong performance in Europe where many markets are up between say 17 and 22 percent so I think even the economic outlook in the world the second half of the year will not bring about similar type of returns you have to understand we're living in a in Europe and the US in essentially almost zero interest rates environment and to have this kind of performance we had in the first half from equity markets is an incredible performance so my you would be that the second half will be more difficult and I wouldn't be surprised to see say the US market going down or the leadership changing the leadership in America has been found stocks Facebook Amazon Netflix Apple Google and support and similar type of stocks semiconductor stocks and I wouldn't be surprised if these stocks were lagging in the second half of the year and that the leadership will change the same I think it will occur in India where maybe the index is not moving much but within the market some stops will perform well and others not so well so in other words I think it will be in the world in the second half and going forward a stock pickers market not an index market ok a stock because market and not an index market and we may not see the kind of returns that we've seen in the first half of the year in US market slightly correction as well you speak about the possibility of leadership change in the index level so far it's been all the tech stocks like Amazon etc but what could take up the mantle from here on well that is precisely at the point I wished to know what leadership will emerge around the world and replace the Fung stocks of the tech stocks and support that I'm simply not yet sure and I need to watch the market for another like two three months before I could come to a conclusion so schmuck you have been in general bullish on emerging markets as well but this India right now in the pecking order well as I explained India has had the best performance this year or one of the best performances Venezuela had a better performance that I should point out from a very depressed level so as I mentioned I think that the Indian market could correct here given the favorable fundamentals for the Indian economy longer-term I wouldn't be overly bearish and what we also have today in India is a relatively stable currency the currency has actually appreciated this year and now I think the rupee may weaken somewhat but in general as I said on your program many times over the last six months if I had to invest for 10 years and I had to choose between the u.s.
and India I would choose India because I think that India will outperform the US so I hope this answers your question more than that I cannot explain to you okay my god that so you are calling for a connection but only perhaps a near-term small issue nothing material nothing long-term let me then talk to you about a different sector banking because that's where the big fight is the whole approach to resolving bad loans that has changed now we have you know a time bound process and place 12 accounts have been chosen by the RBI how do you read this and do you like Indian banks well I mean basically I'm positive about financial stop banks and especially insurance companies and I think eventually they'll clean up their balance sheets and banking in India in a country of the size of India and where banking is not yet hasn't proliferated very much I believe the long term potential is huge but equally we have to understand they are huge technological changes underway in the world to think of the retailing industry in America when I started to work in 1972 blue chip companies were Sears and JCPenney both of them are about to die and so these technological changes will also change the way banking is carried out and financial institutions that understand these changes and will implement the technologies to accommodate these changes will do well and others in my opinion will not do particularly well okay any other sectors that you're bullish on right now mark well I still think that the financial stocks will be okay they have underperformed for years and now they started to outperform so that's a sector secondly in my asset allocation I have always 25 percent in real estate and I think that some real estate in India may not be particularly attractive because it is fully priced on the other hand there is still plenty of real estate that is in my view going to move up substantially in value and so I would essentially focus on real estate investments in it finally mark are you still a commodity book well obviously commodities haven't performed very well but I'd like to say this the price of gold went up 8% last year against the US dollar so it was a very strong it was essentially one of the strongest performing currencies this year gold is up 7% against the US dollar by the US dollar has lost 7% against the euro so in Euro terms were even but it hasn't been a poorly performing commodity and some agricultural commodities in my opinion are very low at the present time and could easily rebound in the second half of the year but overall I think that given the slowdown in gross around the world which is very different from India where there is kind of an acceleration of growth that is possible around the world there is a slowdown certainly in the US and so given that scenario I would be a little bit cautious about industrial commodities at the present time all right mark good talking to us always thank you so much for joining us on the show this morning those are the views from
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