저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 시장은 장기 이익 성장 기대로 강세이며, 금융주(NBFC·주택금융·은행)를 장기 최선호로 본다. 인도 주식 자금 흐름: 2013년 12월까지는 유출이 유입과 비슷하거나 많았으나, 2014년 1월 모디 총리 후보 지명 이후 순유입으로 전환되어 계속 유지되고 있다고 설명. 투자 철학: 거시·정치·시장 타이밍을 보지 않고 기업 이익 성장에 집중하며, 포트폴리오 이익이 시장 이익과 연동된다고 본다. 현금 비중은 두지 않는다. 시장 구조: 약 4,000개 기업 중 소수(300~400개)가 수익의 대부분을 만들어 분포가 우편향이므로 필터와 방법론이 필요하다고 강조. 금융주: 인도 금융 산업은 구조적 성장 기업을 배출하며, 1959년 최초 면허 은행 ADAC 이후 1,000억 루피 상장사가 43만 억 루피 규모로 성장한 사례를 들었다. PSU 은행은 리더십·NPA 위기로 민간에 점유율이 이동 중. RBL, PNB 하우징 등은 향후 10년 내 10배 가능성이 있다고 언급. 제약: 인도 제약은 세계 고령화·의약품 수요 증가의 수혜 대상으로 장기 긍정적이나, 미국 규제·유통 이슈로 단기 조정이 있을 수 있다고 봄. 리스크: 외국인 매수 과열, 모디 효과에 따른 이익 성장 지연(6개월~10년 시차 불확실). 포트폴리오 15종목 중 일부는 실패할 수 있으며 손실 최소화 원칙을 강조. 인디고 등 과거 실패 사례 언급. 출연자 전망: 시장 최고치 상황에서도 장기 낙관적 입장을 유지하며, 자신의 포트폴리오 성과에 집중하겠다고 함.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Sun Conference The Big Faces I am Anuj Singal I have spent the entire Zeus Sun Conference it's a global event and of course comes to India at this point now today I have interacted with the best of the market masters and the verdict is unity and sectoral themes will not work out in fact talking about big bets let's hear it from our first guest Ramdev Agarwal of Motilal Oswal who said he will be keeping an eye open on a potential 20 carat diamond let's hear him out till about 2013 December I mean our biggest problem was the outflow every day I mean it used to be outflow used to be literally equal or more than the inflow January 2014 the moment Mr Modi was nominated as a you know candidate for Prime Minister ship from BJP I think the whole tight turn and after that from 1st January 2014 we have never seen A month, what is net negative, it's been net positive, and of course, the flow has been increasing as our size, our own distribution, and the optimal market is growing because what is happening is right now as a political grip of the current government is increasing, the political capital is increasing with the way select successive wills, people's expectations are also growing, and so right now, the expectation is high: earnings are kind of where it was years back, earnings are not moving there, there's a hope that earnings will explode at some point in time, so you note that stuff, and whether earnings will explode, hope no, so what we are looking at, I mean, the way I manage my portfolio is whether the broad market earnings grow and not my portfolio earnings should do well, so I am very earnings focused, I don't look at macro, I don't I don't look at politics, I don't do anything, and I don't time the market.
I don't have cash costs, so we're worried about what's happening in my portfolio. The markets are low, right-skewed. Markets aren't there. There's no normal distribution. In these 4,000 companies, 2,000 are underperforming. 2,000 are underperforming. No, it doesn't happen like that. So all the performances come from 300-400 companies out of the 4,000.
So, out of 10 companies, they take 90% of the guys you have to see. You have to have a filter. You have to have a method. By the bulk of your portfolio, those 300 are winners. So, the guys who are, I mean, those who keep coming to your screen are the guys who have very different styles, but they find ways of being there by default every time.
So, they are the winners. So, in the stock market, Very few win because the guys who are actually invested in those companies, they only win, not the rest of the banks, so does that explain that is the reason why you are so bullish on the financials because the top 10 includes professional then they started issuing licenses in 1959, we have seen the first among the first licenses was ADAC Bank and there we have seen from a 1000 crore listing today it is 430000 crore and from that so I have seen these stocks growing from 1000 crore to 4 lakh crore over 4 lakh crore and growing very strong right now it is one of the best bets right now so clearly this economy produces compounders and amazing kind of businesses and right now still that 70 per cent of the PSU sector is having leadership crisis NPA crisis so the businesses are growing incrementally Disport is going to the private sector and whether it is NBFC, whether it is housing finance, whether it is a bank, all of them they are getting more than due share of their business and profits and since they are also a I've heard you in the past as well saying you know the likes of RBL, PNB Housing can be 10 baggers in the next 10 years from now you are very convinced that these are the stocks to watch out for, these are the next SGFC in making, banks in making, see again you have to be optimist in the market and see the game of investing is about seeing the future vision, courage and passion, patience you know that so you need to have some kind of imagination about the stock, best of your understanding now since I am I am also a what you call promoter of housing finance company my knowledge of the what's happening in the housing finance is there in The sense that it's more than the analyst says so we're pretty confident that's why we're building it up and over the next 10 years they look to be very good but we also reserve the right of going wrong because in a portfolio of 15 stocks five will depot you each one we don't know like we but last year with a lot of fan fare indigo and it didn't work the way we thought I mean we but till 1200 and l and today also it is lower than that so then it you know but when you buy a very high quality company it will not go it may not go up if your story is wrong but it will also not go to zero what is important in making money as Buffett says that rule number one don't don't lose money and rule number two don't forget rule number one so we have to keep following that process so even if we don't make we Should not lose and then there will be some companies where we will be making more than what we thought beyond Jubilate Life I don't think you are running any of the firms Ajanta but not of the large cap firms Davi and Elokesh are never lessons 4 5 but so I respect the size of the company but what I don't care what is the size of the company I look at my portfolio size and how much I can allocate but you think there is a serious head start on both it and pharma it is an Indian company it is suffering from you know a man transition we are talking about the business model it itself is going through the cand of churning very old model is going way to the new model pharma I think is more temporary and then so you don't know if Amazon's what happens to two three distributors and then if he becomes the global distributor then how he is going to negotiate with All this so lot of the issues but I know one thing in pharma every single pills or injectables worldwide they need the world is aging the world is becoming prosperous they need more medicine they need more cheap high quality medicine and India is the place to come there is no second place so I know these companies have wonderful future but at times you know stock runs ahead of the you know current realities then it has to correct so it is part of the process of correction and at some point of time again it will give a wonderful opportunity to get it so Ram ji markets are at all time high you know but what will scare you what is something that you know will scare you that okay I need to you know cut down my position a little bit what is that one of a few things to you watching out for will probably make you a little nervous the market just the a mean see one is xv Optimum and second is the no but you know the kind of the kind of fall I see that ka skase me na first time it FDI DI are buying out the gora you know so it's a good thing to happen that is the best thing to happen but the worst they are buying so it's one thing second is that the lack of earnings you know so when will the magical Modi movement is going to happen one thing know whether it starts six months one year two years it is going to be no 10 years run so people are hopeful about that I am a lot hopeful but in any case I do not I am more ala to my portfolio than the market ok ts Raamdev Agrawal someone who is known as a value investor but what about the Nawab of Dalal Street Ramesh Damani let's take a break and find out what's Ramesh's next big bet
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