저자: Kevin · 외국인
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인플레이션은 지속되며 '인플레이션 붐' 상태로 봄. 스태그플레이션은 아니며 임금 상승 압력이 당분간 지속될 것으로 예상. 공급망 병목은 완화 조짐이 있고 2022년 중후반 이후 과잉공급 가능성 제기. 이후 물가 둔화 기대하나 2023년까지 높은 수준 가능. 기술주 상승 여부에 대해 금리와의 상관은 일정하지 않다고 봄. 자막 말미에 특정 종목(AMD, 구글, 마이크로소프트, 비자 등) 실적 호조 언급 및 우량주 보유 권유가 포함되나 면책 문구 있음.
다듬은 글
remember folks the price for the courses goes up on friday check them out link below if you listen to our government and the biden administration inflation is not an issue they say that consumers aren't paying more because they can't pay more because they're not able to purchase anything that's literally what gensake just said about inflation that inflation isn't a problem because people are just saving their money because they can't buy anything but let's be real we know that prices are going up cpi is sitting at 5.4 percent which means that consumer prices year-over-year up 5.4 percent and at an annualized rate on a month-to-month change we're still seeing inflation above five percent jp morgan surveyed uh respondents businesses and individuals and found on october 13th that 42 percent of respondents believe the united states is quote careening towards a stag inflationary future the imf warned that the prospects for inflation were so highly uncertain specifically because soaring energy costs will end up pushing up consumer prices in the near term wages are skyrocketing as well in the last cpi report we saw that wages are increasing at an annualized rate of 4.6 percent in earnings reports the word supply chains usually in reference to supply chain issues and problems have been mentioned 3 000 times so far in 2021.
inflation is also coming up in earnings reports as recently as yesterday and today ge for example said that inflation and supply chain challenges are quote negatively impacting their businesses and that they're seeing industry-wide shortages and had they been able to actually get product their growth would have been nine percentage points higher so they could fulfill their orders as a result they're seeing prices going up for not only their products but products that they're or or materials that they're sourcing and so their priority next year is trying to run a more efficient shop but on top of that also raising prices next year hasbro says they're also raising prices now they defend this and say that hey we're able to retool our lines though because we're really used to making new products every single year working with different uh sort of input materials even if we have to find new sources because toy trends change all the time so we're used to this sort of retooling but still prices are going up 3m says that quote inflation is coming faster than anyone thought and to make up for these pressures they're raising prices jack dorsey from twitter just had the following to say quote hyperinflation is going to change everything it's happening now kathy wood tried slapping back and saying hey but the velocity of money is down the same thing happened in 2008.
sure the velocity money is down and that is a hedge to inflation the less a single dollar circulates around the economy the less inflationary pressures we have however elon musk replies and says yeah i don't know about any of that long-term stuff but quote short term we are seeing strong inflationary pressures the federal reserve bank of san francisco says it's all because of the american rescue plan that led to a substantial amount of higher inflation and the supply chain shortages that we're seeing now because people had more money to spend ned davis research suggests that overall inflation at 5.4 percent year-over-year and slowing growth makes it feel like we're heading towards inflation i'm sorry stagflation and cy inflation's not good since 1960 goldman sachs says there have been 41 quarters of high inflation and weak economic growth that's stagflation lots of inflation with stagnating growth during those periods the s p on average returned negative 2.1 percent well below the average of 2.5 percent growth for all quarters high inflation of the early to mid 70s was also ultimately solved through quote a painful series of interest rate hikes and recessions that the u.s was then finally able to get through the bank of england is so worried about inflation that jp morgan thinks the bank of england is going to begin raising rates earlier than expected this year rather than next year and this has some folks saying hey it's time to invest in companies like 3m or vulcan materials or procter and gamble typical consumer staples that might do well during an inflationary period of time or just go straight into commodities look at aluminum look at lumber i mean these prices are ridiculous even in lumber's slow season and even though we had a pause in the summer which is odd because that's the busy season in prices lumber prices fell in the summer after skyrocketing now they're skyrocketing again so folks what we've got to talk about in this video is first are we experiencing stagflation what about jobs because jobs and job shortages really seem like they're going to continue to push inflation up and if we can figure out what's causing the job shortage maybe we can figure out if we're going to continue to expect to see inflation and then is there any sign that inflation is actually starting to subside so let's break this down one at a time number one look even though growth is slowing we're still growing we're growing at elevated levels we came off running our treadmill really really fast and now we're slowing down because we're a little exhausted basically that's normal during reopening right so right now we're still at elevated levels of demand for goods and services and nobody actually looks at the situation that we're in in terms of data researchers who are pointing to oh yeah we're in stagflation instead what data scientists are calling this is a different phrase and it's kind of neat it's called an inflationary boom it's a place where people who have money are spending money and they're spending money even though prices are higher reiterating that higher inflation but we still have growth we're still growing again maybe not as quickly as we were earlier but we're still growing so definitely too much growth to be considered stagflationary right now but wait a minute kevin if we're not seeing stagflation why are yields going through the roof i mean look at the fact that the 10-year treasury yield saw a peak earlier in the year things cooled down but now it's back over 1-6 the 10-year break even inflation rate also just hit a record high at the end of october 2.66 this measures and the tips which is a treasury inflation protected security uh bond and the difference here is often seen as a measure of inflation right and so or or potentially the market pricing in for more inflation coming it's not directly a measure of inflation and this makes some folks worried that wait a minute like okay if this inflation is going to keep happening we got to get out of tech stocks which sidebar on tech stocks it's kind of interesting when we look into the research on this a little bit even though when the treasury yields skyrocketed last time here between february and may we saw tech stocks sell off there's an interesting note here capital and their chief investment strategist says the following quote the correlation of tech stocks relative performance to the 10-year yield has historically oscillated from negative to positive in other words very very bad correlation and they say that there's quote no real pattern here then they say in fact tech stocks outpace the s p 500 during five of the previous periods of rising rates and rising inflation and more recently tech has outperformed the s p 500 directly since the pandemic so in other words f yields just focus on the things that are potentially creating inflation so we're not worried about stagflation but we are worried about an inflationary boom right because inflation's not so great then disconnect tech earnings potentially from the treasury yields but do focus on inflation and so when we want to focus on inflation a big thing right now has to be jobs so let's talk about jobs behrens is suggesting that the pandemic changed people's attitudes and priorities it changed where people lived and it changed how people feel about going to work see covid isn't the only thing that's affecting people's jobs their personalities their preferences have changed in high coveted areas mobility data is increasing in all areas except places of work in areas where covet is neutral or at normal levels public transportation traffic is up but workplace traffic is down and if people are worried about covet public transportation probably wouldn't be up and so barrons is suggesting that the labor market is actually probably far tighter than it appears and as a result inflation essentially has nowhere to go but gets squeezed up and they believe that the federal reserve is actually well behind the curve on raising interest rates and tapering that's because the fed keeps looking at the jobs report going well i mean we're still you know in the five percent range for unemployment we got to get this down let's stay accommodative but baron suggests those numbers are wrong that the pandemic promoted quote a record number of business creation and that business creation is hard to measure in the jobs report in fact in july 2020 they report that 600 000 new businesses were created that's up 100 from the prior year in 2019.
today we're still creating new businesses at a rate that's 50 percent higher than before and economists say that counting entrepreneurs is incredibly difficult when it comes to the jobs rates also the government has this birth death model that's used to try to establish payroll counts barons believes that they fail at accurately counting new businesses appropriately in this measure so it's actually quite possible that more people are working but that people are working in a different way than traditional measures have been set up to account for and that household income is already back to pre-pandemic levels at the same time we have stock markets and household markets like housing price markets at all-time highs making households feel a little bit more flush with cash so there's also the potential that there are not only people creating their new business ventures or whatever but they're all there's also this potential that two-income households because they feel wealthier have become one income households because they can afford to do so and maybe they can afford to start a business whether that makes them feel like they're employed or not yet we're also at the same time seeing more people retire which is also reiterated by a soaring stock market which pumps people's retirement accounts and their real estate value stimulus help people sock away more money savings are at 10 of gdp right now so there's really enough reason to not go back to work for a lot of folks people very fortunate that have been able to save or invest during this time and they don't feel the need to go back to work now we did think that people were going to rush back to work as soon as unemployment expired at least the unemployment boost expired in september but at the same time as we took away the unemployment boost of 300 per week joe biden started the child tax credit of 250 per child under 18 and 300 per child per month under six so it's not a surprise that individuals are choosing potentially not to work or delay going back to work or they're living off their wealth while they're starting new business ventures so all of a sudden you're in this place where wow now it makes sense why there are less people working but add to this now new vaccine mandates at not only many corporations but any business that does contracting work for the government or any government office is now requiring vaccine mandates and this is leading more people to stake sick outs where people are calling in sick as a way of protesting that they don't want a vaccine or they're quitting and so we're actually potentially making the jobs numbers even worse and worse and worse so child tax credit making things worse vaccine mandate making things worse the fact that people feel like they have more wealth and don't have to go back to work making things worse the government statistics probably not measuring new business creation as well as they should because new business creation is through the roof and it's even possible that people who are creating new businesses just report that they're unemployed because they don't feel like they're actually working at like with a steady income yet so some people report that they're unemployed anyway even though they've created a new business and they're just trying to start getting revenue coming in now goldman sachs is trying to adjust these numbers and they're suggesting that workers are now more productive that they're doing more with less they're using new technologies zoom they're hybrid working at home and in person or whatever and that productivity is going up but if you thought it was hard to measure wage data it's even harder to measure people's productivity that's very difficult to measure and so now all of a sudden we're in this place where wait a minute wages are going up there are a lot of reasons reiterating why wages are going up and according to barons wages are probably not going to slow down their inflationary pace anytime soon which will probably lead inflation to continue to go up this is why we say we're in this inflationary boom i mean consider this credit card spending is up people are really excited about retail ironically people are really excited about brick and mortar so much so that macy's store sales were such a blowout that their stock is up 36 in just the last three months at the same time macy's and kohl's only trade for seven times estimated 2022 earnings so they look a little bit on the cheap side who knows if that'll last though right okay so we've we're not stagflating we're inflationary booming that's a word we're having an inflationary boom we don't think wage pressures are going to go away anytime soon because of all the reasons that we mentioned which is not great so what's going to be the first thing to tip and is anything even close to tipping well fortunately the answer to that is yes there's a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel delivery time frames for our supply chain crises are starting to slow their pace of gains delivery time frames in october posted their smallest gain in nine months a signal that finally supply shortages might begin to ease container prices have also started coming down get this the current lead time for semiconductors is 21.9 weeks so you order a semiconductor you gotta wait 21.9 weeks that's like a little over five months however that measure only went up a day in the last reading that's the smallest increase that we've seen in all of 2021 we're starting to see a flattening curve here an inflection point and in the past periods of shortages have typically led to painful periods of oversupply and so this is where we have to shift from okay being worried about inflation which we're still going to be worried about with wages but shift to a concern of over supply and the concern is that a lot of businesses are actually double ordering right now because they have to wait so long and they're frustrated so they're double ordering product and that we might end up seeing cancellations or stocked shelves and really stocked shelves for quite a while not yet probably got to get through this holiday season first but we could see and be struggling with oversupply by 2022.
so let's try to consolidate all of the madness that we just talked about are we in a stagflationary environment no not stagflationary are we in an inflationary boom yes do we expect job prices to continue to go up yes absolutely and ironically well maybe not ironically i mean expectedly i should say the more wages go up the more unions like labor unions get together and demand higher wages next year or the next time a negotiation comes up so more inflation leading to more inflation right wage price spiral up wages go up input costs go up prices for products go up leading people to demand higher wages again okay so inflationary boom with wages going up is there light at the end of the tunnel yes and that is with the supply chain crisis when the supply chain crisis when and if it goes away and when we get to a potential area or period of over supply businesses are probably going to be tempted to lower prices to clear out inventory leading to probably amazing revenue indicators or revenue numbers i should say not indicators like actual revenue results for companies because if they start clearing their shelves even if they drop the price a little bit and there's a little bit of deflation and products they're gonna have record revenues because people will see price cuts and go shopping like crazy and continue to spend because again savings are up and circling back to circle back saki jensaki who says that people aren't experiencing inflation because they can't buy anything well they're about to potentially next year have the opportunity to buy lots of different stuff and so that's where maybe maybe and hopefully by the middle to end of 2022 we might actually expect to see prices begin to moderate if not slow but fall they're still going to be buoyed by wages probably still trying to push up so we're going to have a little bit of that struggle and that means we could still see higher inflationary numbers potentially into 2023 but then we expect inflation to finally start chilling out so was inflation transitory no it's been pretty persistent inflation's been here and it's staying right now but there's light at the end of the tunnel and out of all of this if there's any recommendation that i would make hashtag not financial advice it is of course to continue to buy and huddle high quality companies like tesla and face etsy apple amazon lemonade you can't in my opinion go wrong with these very high quality companies not financial advice by the way right after i filmed this video listen to this as i suggested with the stocks that i love amd crushed it with earnings amd beats on eps revenue net income google beats revenue eps margins beep beep beat beat microsoft win uh what was it uh surface sales like tablet sales went down kind of potentially makes sense regarding the chip shortage but revenue beat net income beat big big big beats from microsoft end phase super affected by potential supply chain constraints right beat on earnings revenue net income and guidance and margin mega beats visa more spending than expected more revenue than expected and a beat on the bottom line folks if that doesn't convince you that these companies are killing it despite these fears i don't know what will just like you can't go wrong with checking out on one of those amazing programs linked down below for programs on psychology money real estate investing making youtube videos sales stocks options technical analysis you name it i'll link down below use that 41 off coupon cod]
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