저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
BKKT(Bakkt)이 Mastercard·Fiserv·Google 등과 암호화폐 결제 파트너십을 발표하며 주가가 급등(약 $52)했다. 진행자는 사업 구조(수탁, 전환 결제)를 설명하고 경쟁사(Square, PayPal, crypto.com, Robinhood 등)를 비교한다. 매출 추정치 889백만달러 중 849백만달러가 암호화폐 매수·매도 자산가치로 잡혀 있어 매출 성장 수치가 과장됐다고 지적한다. 실제 결제 전환 수익은 수년 걸릴 것으로 보고 밸류에이션이 과도하다는 입장이며, 본인은 매수·공매도·보유 모두 하지 않는다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
Oh my goodness, Bakkt Holdings is going to the moon. Take a look at this, folks. Ticker symbol BKK is not only up 234% today, but it's up another 74% in after hours, now trading over $52 per share. But folks, we need to talk. What is this company? Why is it up? What does it do that's special and how does it compare to some of its competitors?
And can we actually value this company? Is it a good investment? Well, these are things that we're going to talk about in this video. Right after I mention that this Friday there . There are five. One is stocks and psychology of money. The others are for real estate investing, do , being a real estate agent and selling more deals, and making YouTube videos.
So, if you want to make more money and build your wealth, before Friday because the price does go up every time a coupon expires. Okay, folks, let's get into why Bakkt is going to the moon. First, we've got to understand that a lot of payment processors are paying specific attention to cryptocurrencies.
The VP of blockchain products, for example, at Mastercard, called the trend in cryptocurrency adoption unmistakable. And so, early in February, Mastercard announced that it was planning to support cryptocurrencies directly on its network at some point this year. Well, rather than create their own system, they decided to partner with BKK T, Bakkt Holdings, to accept cryptocurrency payments and give merchants the opportunity to be paid in cryptocurrencies.
That way, Mastercard can continue to transact, but when it comes to converting digital currencies, BKK T could do that for Mastercard. I'll give you some examples in a moment. So, if you're a little confused there, don't worry, we'll go through some examples in just a moment. Now, for less than a well, for a less than $2 billion company, that is Bakkt Holdings, to partner with a $356 billion company, Mastercard, this is a really big deal.
But it wasn't just Mastercard who partnered with Bakkt Holdings or who announced their partnership today. It was another company as well, a 70-plus billion-dollar company called Fiserv, which is one of the largest point-of-sale payment processors in the world, serving banks, credit unions, retail stores, and more.
And today, they also announced or released the announcement that they are partnering with Bakkt Holdings to provide Fiserv with the opportunity to also accept payments in cryptocurrencies and give merchants the ability to receive it. I kind of picture this like when you're in Europe and you've got to, you know, you're sticking your American credit card and then a little prompt comes up and says, "Do you want to pay in euros or do you want to pay in dollars?" This might just say, "Bitcoin or dollars?
Or save default, right?" Anyway, these partnerships are all in addition to partnerships that Bakkt Holdings already has. Bakkt Holdings, for example, partnered with Google to allow Bakkt Holdings Visa debit card to pay with Bitcoin at merchants accepting Google Pay. They also partnered with Finastra to enable crypto trading for community banks and unions because this is something that B Bakkt Holdings does is they custody cryptocurrency trading.
So, basically, if you go on their Bakkt Holdings app, you can buy cryptocurrency, you can send it to your friends and family, and while you do that, uh Bakkt Holdings takes custody of the tokens for you and provides that sort of centralized security. Obviously, this is different from having your own currency key, which a lot of crypto enthusiasts say, "Not my key, not my coin." And you can't then stake or lend out your cryptocurrency, but they make it easy for you to buy and sell.
Much like a lot of other companies already also do. Think Webull, think Robinhood, PayPal, or Square. There's a lot of competition in this market, but Bakkt Holdings is kind of the infrastructure that makes this a reality for other companies to implement on their website if they want. So, let's say if I wanted to start a startup tomorrow and go, "You know what?
I want people to be able to trade cryptocurrency on the Meet Kevin app." Well, I could call Bakkt Holdings and they could set that up for me. And then I could brand everything as or sort of like white label everything on my own thing if I wanted to, right? Uh but obviously it's a lot more involved than just that.
Uh licensing, you name it. We're not even going to go down that rabbit hole. But here's the thing. The company Bakkt Holdings, it's worth noting, little history here, it's a spin-off of the Intercontinental Exchange. This is a company that owns a ton of exchanges worldwide. They've got a massive reputation and they're really well connected.
This is a company that owns the uh New York Stock Exchange, which is crazy. But anyway, this company announced it was going public via SPAC merger in January. They went public on October 18th and they actually fell in price after they after the merger to as low as $8 a share. Uh and of course, now they've exploded on news of this of these announcements and partnerships.
Now, the stock's trading for over $50 per share, which is pretty incredible. But wait a minute, is it worth it? Well, to understand if it's worth it, it's helpful to understand the app. I always like to say if I'm going to invest in something, I've got to know what the product is. So, I went ahead and transferred over the maximum amount of money it would let me transfer over.
This is $999 and I was able to transfer this over from my checking account after linking my bank account. And I'm not sponsored by Bakkt Holdings. I don't own any shares of Bakkt Holdings, so I just want to be very transparent here. I want to give an impartial review. And as I was kind of exploring this, I realized, "Okay, there are a few different things you can do.
You could buy gift cards on this platform here." And so, they have a lot of merchant partnerships here. And one of the goals that they're trying to do is enable you to use cryptocurrencies to buy gift cards. They also want you to be able to add your rewards programs. So, that way rather than having your air miles just sit around as airline points, you can actually turn that into cryptocurrency.
I haven't exactly gone down that rabbit hole yet. And of course, you could buy crypto. So, for example, if I wanted to buy Bitcoin right now, $999 of which, uh ooh, apparently I have an insufficient balance even though I I thought I had $999. Uh let's try $950. Uh yep, okay. Well, I guess I can't buy it yet.
Maybe the funds still have to settle. Oh yeah, look, available cash zero. Even though the portfolio uh oh yeah, there you go. Available cash may be lower while new deposits are processing. Okay, got it. Uh anyway, so you could should be able to buy cryptocurrency on here. You can also get a Bakkt uh debit card, it looks like, where you can add your digital wallets and that way you can kind of pay through these.
But what I thought was interesting here is they this is actually through a partnership with Visa. But Visa doesn't actually make these cards. Instead, Marqeta makes these card uh cards, which is another company and this just gets so complicated in the layers. But Bakkt's doing the transactions and changing USD to cryptocurrency and back.
Bakkt, maybe that's why they're called Bakkt. Bakkt then partners with Visa as potentially or Mastercard as the payment processor for fiat. And Marqeta, ticker symbol MQ, is a company that could actually create these cards to power cryptocurrency spending and rewards. And they have done so for companies like Coinbase, Fold, Shakepay, uh and of course, Bakkt.
Now, we also believe that Affirm uses Marqeta for uh the Affirm card. But anyway, that's that's sort of just a side note on a side fintech company here. But anyway, uh okay, cool. So, so this gives you a little bit of an idea here about this. Now, one thing that I did think was cool is I should be able to send send crypto to individuals and apparently it's not available now because probably because I have no money.
Uh but it does look like when when yeah, here you go. If I want to send cryptocurrency to someone or request money from someone, I could do so and they could just look me up by my username here, Meet Kevin. So, if you want to send me Bitcoin, Meet Kevin on the Bakkt app, okay? I won't send it back. I'm going to keep it and I'm going to spend it.
Uh anyway, so now Bakkt does custody your crypto. Something unique that seems to be here an opportunity is is again converting points from rewards programs to from cash to things like Bitcoin. Uh or at least I thought it was unique, but then I did a little bit more research and I found that co- crypto.com does a lot of similar things.
And so, I thought this was really interesting. So, crypto.com, I haven't transferred money over to crypto.com. I'm also not sponsored by crypto.com, but interesting, look at this. Get your crypto.com Visa card now and enjoy up to 8% back. You can track different coins, you can buy coins here, you can get different cards.
A lot of the things look like crypto rewards, you could sort of pick different cards here. A lot of the things that Bakkt does, it looks like crypto.com also does. In fact, if you jump over to crypto.com and you type in crypto pay, I thought this was really interesting, or just type in a Google, crypto pay.
Crypto.com actually has a crypto pay platform where they handle the transaction processing for you. So, this is really a competitor here, right? Look at that. Pay with crypto, earn rewards, instant settlements with zero gas fees. Buy collectible NFTs. Uh they By the way, crypto.com, I'm not officially sponsored by them, but when you sign up with them, you can get an affiliate link.
Anybody can do this. If you wanted to sign up for crypto.com, go to meetkevin.com/crypto. meetkevin.com/crypto. And you can get up to $25 for free. I just realized that because they have the little tag that's like get $25 for free. I figure if you're going to sign up, you may as well get $25 for free.
I get $25 for free as well. I'm not officially sponsored by them. I just quickly made an account and I saw that. I'm like, "Okay, I may as well put that link down below." I am, however, officially sponsored by BlockFi. And see, this is another competitor, not to kind of get a little confusing here, but BlockFi is another company that also offers You can see the competition here a Bitcoin credit card.
Which if you want this and you want to get up to $250 for free when you transfer money, go to metkevin.com/bf. This one I am officially sponsored by. But anyway, uh and I also invest in this company. But anyway, uh here's just another example where BlockFi uses the uses Visa uh for for their payment transactions when it's just cash, right?
But somebody's obviously processing uh the crypto transfers. And this is where crypto.com I'm not sure if they work with BlockFi or if BlockFi does their own settlements. But regarding crypto.com, this is clearly a competitor to uh back.com. Now, crypto.com is not public. Uh it's worth noting that. So, really uh if you wanted to get into a fintech that does this, Bakkt might be your only option for doing this right now, which I think is one of the reasons we're seeing such enthusiasm for back.com.
Uh however, we don't really have other good valuation comparables because the other companies just aren't public, right? Uh I mean, Marqeta is. Affirm's public, but these companies are kind of separated. Other companies that might be comparable would be companies like Square. Now, Square is really interesting because Square also accepts payments in crypto.
And Square also custodies your cryptocurrency. But Square actually secured a patent that allows them to settle their own payments and operate their own blockchain for recording transactions. So, you've got this sort of space race right now is what this feels like where all the different companies are trying to find their fit.
On one hand, you've got Square trying to do everything. In fact, let's just draw this down really quick so we could see how these like bubbles all fit together. Okay, I think that's going to be the easiest thing to do here. So, you've got over here on its own, you've got Square trying to do everything themselves.
From payment processing to its own blockchain blockchain ledger to custodying. They're trying to do everything themselves. And uh Square, for what it's worth, they're they're not exactly a cheap stock, okay? Square has a valuation of a hundred twenty-one billion dollars. Bakkt is probably about a ten billion dollar valuation company right now.
So, it's very very very small compared to something like Square. Then you have PayPal, which so far does custody crypto and let lets you buy and sell crypto, but I don't believe they're actually clearing transactions themselves yet. This would be very similar to what Robinhood is doing or what Webull is doing where or like you know, basically where they let you buy and sell cryptocurrencies or send it peer-to-peer, which you can do with PayPal.
You can send peer-to-peer, but not on Robinhood or Webull. You'd have to sell and and then transfer, right? Uh but and even Venmo's doing this now. Square seems to be doing everything together, which is kind of interesting. Visa is clearly in this game. Visa is is is all over this. And Visa has obviously partnered with multiple different companies, including partnering with Bakkt, but also partnering with the competitor crypto.com, which I found is very interesting.
Then you have Mastercard, which is partnering with Bakkt, but also partnering for the cards with companies like MQ. So, you could really see MQ. There we go. This is you've got this giant mess of different companies competing in the same space. And they're all trying to get uh their hands in this cookie jar.
Oh, right. And remember, we've also got Fiserv trying to get in over here as well uh with the BKKT partnership and Google with that BKKT partnership, right? So, you've got a lot of folks competing to get this cryptocurrency market share for transaction volume because every time there's a transaction, there's money that's exchanged, right?
And people like money. So, this is worth noting. Now, uh this is clearly a race here. Bakkt does a lot of things like we mentioned, gift cards, point transfers. They even do derivatives for futures trading for institutional investors. Uh they're trying to do a lot of different things. Now, what's also interesting about Bakkt though is their investor presentation.
And this Uh I don't know how exciting this is. And this is where I start questioning valuation a little bit, okay? So, they received $482 million in cash through this SPAC merger that they did, which is great. It's a great way for these these blank check companies to to get money and and to make money.
I appreciate that uh because you need money to make money, right? Takes money to make money. But if they received What did I say? $482 million in cash, I'm a little bit concerned about spending because take a look at this. In 2021, we're expecting out of the $458 million, we're expecting to spend $259 million and then another $316 million in 2022.
Which means at some point soon, this company is going to have to raise money. Which is fine. You can raise money, but just be aware when a company raises money, usually the stock price falls. Now, in addition to that, and that's not a big deal. Sometimes that can be very temporary. After all, the company's getting the cash to continue to grow.
This is super normal. Uh but the other thing that I thought was kind of you know, that's a little bit more normal. But something else that I thought was really weird. I did not like this. So, under the projections, which this stuff isn't really regulated by the SEC, these projections could be anything they pull out of thin air and they're not well regulated at all.
The SEC has explained that they're very frustrated about these investor prospectuses. So, you have to be very careful about this. But right now, this company makes virtually no money. What's fascinating though is look at this because this was put together at the beginning of 2021. At the beginning of 2021, this company estimated that they would have somewhere around $889 million of revenue.
But if you read the fine print, it's a little bit concerning. Look at the fine print right here. Crypto buy and sell $849 million. So, the vast majority of that has to do with crypto buy and sell. 849 / 889 works out to 95.5%. So, 95.5% of the revenue they're claiming here is from crypto buy and sell.
But what's actually interesting is they don't show you all of the expenses. They just kind of lump them all together. And notice this little two footnote they put right here. If you go to two, this actually this number right here, this $849 million, get this, folks, includes the asset value of cryptocurrency.
What? So, in other words, if you did a transaction of of of one Bitcoin, they're basically saying, "Oh, we got $50,000 of Bitcoin revenue, but our fee was $100. So, we got $50,000 of revenue and $49,900 of that was an expense." So, what they're really doing here is they're using this built-in crypto valuation to try to show that their total revenue is going to grow these massive amounts.
And that you're going to get this insane revenue growth at this company. When the reality is, what we should probably be paying more attention to is this transaction line up here. Which don't get me wrong, this transaction line is growing. That's a very nice growth. But it's nowhere near the bolded numbers.
Look how they bold the big number, which is total fugazi magic anyway. Like that to me is a red flag. Now, again, I don't invest in the company. I want this to go to the moon for people because I want people to make money. But there are some red flags here. You've got real competition. We're running on news that we don't even know is going to be profitable yet.
Now, we expect it to be profitable. The momentum is in the right direction. But let's try to understand a little bit how a transaction like this might actually work. So, I put this together really quick just to give you a quick overview. Now, this is going to look overwhelming for a moment, but just go with me.
Uh follow this along for a moment. All right. Let's say now you're going to pay for a hot dog, okay? You're going to pay for a hot dog. We're highlighting this in green. You've got three options. You could pay in cash. You could pay in Bitcoin. Or you could pay in Bitcoin, but the merchant wants cash, not Bitcoin, right?
Okay, let's start with the first one. If you pay in cash with while you with swiping your Mastercard card, Mastercard will process the transaction. Mastercard gets the fees. And I'm assuming this entire drawing here is my assumption. My assumption is the merchant gets the cash and only Mastercard makes money.
Bakkt does not make money here. That's fine. But what if you click the button, I want to pay in Bitcoin? Well, if you pay in Bitcoin and the merchant wants to receive Bitcoin, then my expectation is Mastercard would route the transaction to BKKT. BKKT would make money converting that Bitcoin to cash and then potentially or transacting that cash over to Bitcoin so that way the merchant gets uh, so that way the merchant gets Bitcoin.
This makes sense. So, if you pay in Bitcoin, Bakkt's going to make money here. But what if you pay in Bitcoin and the merchant actually wants cash? Well, in my opinion, there are two possibilities here. If you click pay in Bitcoin, but the merchant wants cash and you're paying your credit card bill in cash, which you usually are going to pay your balance in cash with most credit cards that offer like Bitcoin rewards or whatever.
This could change, but in theory, Mastercard wouldn't have to use Bakkt, right? They could just pass this on and go, "Okay, sure. You want to pay in Bitcoin." Make you feel like you're paying in Bitcoin, but then really just pay in cash and the merchant gets cash, which is what the merchant wants. It's really just creating the option.
Now, if the merchant want I see the other option here, of course, would be pay in Bitcoin, Bakkt converts Bitcoin from the user, but then you have to convert it back to cash, so you're twice converting it, paying twice the fees. So, that doesn't make much sense to me. So, really the the place where Bakkt would make money is really only in this scenario right here in the middle.
That's the user pays in Bitcoin and the merchant wants to receive money in Bitcoin. And I expect that this marriage is going to take multiple years to actually happen. Uh, that merchants are willing to take Bitcoin that you go to and regularly spend money at and the user wants to pay in Bitcoin. That's going to take a while is my expectation.
Now, I do think there is profit in that when that starts happening, but personally, I think the valuation here is a little bit stretched, a little bit overblown. And for me, let's just say it's not something that I'm going to invest in. Am I happy for the cryptocurrency movement? 110%. Do I want this stock to go to the moon?
Absolutely. Am I shorting this stock? No. Do I own this stock? No. Am I going to FOMO buy this stock? No. Okay? But folks, if you like my perspectives, . Share this video and we'll see you in the next video. Thanks so much. Goodbye.
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