저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
반도체 섹터는 고변동성 속 차별화 장세. 마이크론 생산 20% 감축 발표에도 저가 매수 유입은 단기 긍정 신호로 해석. 재고 누적은 경기침체 초기 신호일 수 있으나 주가는 보통 침체 초입에 바닥을 형성. 버핏의 TSMC 매수는 장기 매력 근거. 단기적으로는 장기 이평선 저항 여부를 주시하며 하락 가능성을 더 높게 봄. 스토캐스틱·RSI 과열권, 구리·VIX도 지지선 근처에서 관찰. 단기 매매는 손절과 분할 대응 권장.
다듬은 글
Growth stocks, solar colors, etc., are undergoing a differentiation phenomenon in sectors accompanied by high volatility. Since significant fluctuations are occurring almost on a daily basis, it will not be easy to respond. Therefore, I will provide a guideline on how best to respond to the semiconductor sector.
If you look at the chart, I mentioned last time that we are currently at the upper end of this mid-term trend. I also advised you to focus on how the price moves at this long-term moving average. In fact, the end of the last rally was the long-term moving average. It appears to be acting as resistance even now, so if it fails to break through next week, you should keep some degree of correction in mind.
If there is a unique point in the semiconductor sector this week, I think it is that bargain buying entered despite the negative news from Micron. Micron dealt a massive blow to the semiconductor sector by announcing plans to cut production, as inventory continues to pile up due to recession issues.
They decided to cut production by a whopping 20%; while this is bad news in the short term, it cannot be viewed as entirely bad in that it can defend prices to some extent by reducing the supply of DRAM, Micron's flagship product. In fact, news regarding inventory has been heard quite frequently. As for Nvidia, China While graphics cards might be a slight exception for third-party manufacturers, I believe that inventory is piling up at most semiconductor companies.
From the perspective of boom and bust cycles, the accumulation of inventory can be interpreted as us entering the initial stages of a recession. Since stock prices follow cycles, they typically bottom out and begin to rebound from the very beginning of an economic downturn. Of course, given that such record-breaking interest rate hikes haven't occurred since the era of full bulk trading, it is impossible to predict how deep and long the resulting recession will last.
Nevertheless, Warren Buffett recently purchased a massive amount of TSMC stock. From Berkshire's perspective, given its substantial cash reserves, it seems they judged that now is a good time for dollar-cost averaging. From a long-term investment standpoint, it is undeniable that this is an attractive phase.
You can view the recent strength in the semiconductor sector as reflecting this fact to some extent. However, for the short term, you need to approach this from a slightly different perspective. In my case, I held a long position prior to the CPI announcement and have now mostly cashed out through dollar-cost averaging.
I want to trade at a definite timing, and since we are currently at an inflection point, I do not recommend taking overly aggressive positions. To put it simply, we are in this kind of zone. If you take an aggressive position right now... If the price moves differently than expected, it can lead to significant losses, so it is not too late to invest based on the direction.
You will understand once the next swatch is released. Personally, at the current level, I believe there is a slightly higher probability of a short-term downside rather than a further rise. Even looking at auxiliary indicators like Stochastic or RSI, it is clearly in a "Guam" zone. You should prioritize watching whether the long-term moving average is broken; if it fails to break through, it is advantageous to formulate a strategy for the downside.
Once you see how far the downside opens, I can tell you about the support line. It is currently open by approximately 9%, and based on SXL, it is 27%, which would be around $9 based on the current price. If you are capable of short-term trading, be sure to set a stop-loss and consider split position conversions.
If timing is difficult, it is perfectly fine to just observe and take a break. There is absolutely no need to rush. Please respond calmly and rationally. Finally, I will wrap up the video by mentioning the VIX index. You should also keep an eye on copper prices, which are closely linked to the semiconductor sector and are once again located in an important support zone.
The VIX index is also at the bottom of the mid-term trend that has continued since last November. It is nearby. Technically, there is a high probability of a rebound from here. Since the VIX also has a very significant bottleneck, I hope you will continue to invest while closely monitoring key macro indicators next week.
The Fear Momentum Index is currently at a resilient level, and please keep in mind that the peak of the August rally was around 68. I mentioned that the perspectives on responding to the semiconductor market and the stock market are different; I will share detailed market response strategies via my channel's community on Monday, so please be sure to refer to them when responding.
That is all for today's video. Thank you sincerely for watching. Your subscriptions and likes are a great source of encouragement, so please consider doing so. Please leave any questions or inquiries in the comments. Thank you.
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