저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
CPI가 예상을 크게 상회해 증시가 사상 최고치로 급등. 현 시점 공격적 포지션보다 현금 보유 강조. 구리는 삼각수렴을 이탈해 상승 추세 지속 중이나 200일선 지지 확인 필요. 반도체는 한 달 새 30% 이상 상승(SOXL 기준 90% 이상), 중기 추세 돌파 시도 중이나 과매수 상태라 단기 조정 가능성 언급. 상방 약 12%, 하방 약 10%(3배 레버리지 시 36%/30%) 가능성 제시. 장단기 금리 스프레드 확대는 경기침체 리스크 신호로 주시 권고.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is America. As you all know, the recent CPI significantly exceeded the consensus, and the stock market cheered, surging to record highs. I have been continuously emphasizing holding cash, and indeed, it seems there is no need to take overly aggressive positions before the announcement of such a major event.
Watching the market is a strategy, and it is not too late to ride the flow after confirming the indicators and market direction. What I was actually worried about was the market forming a trading range because the indicators came out ambiguous—for example, the headline CPI slightly underperforming the consensus while the core CPI was slightly above the cut-off.
Fortunately, the indicators are showing a clear direction, creating a situation where more stable investment is possible. Naturally, I view the market as bullish. However, the upward trend seems a bit steep. If stock prices rebound too quickly, the Fed's stimulus measures could be triggered again, and technically, we should also be prepared for a short-term correction.
I will share detailed market response strategies through my channel's community on Monday. Today, I intend to focus on semiconductors. Since their performance differs from the index, I believe we need to approach them slightly differently. Let me set the baseline. Starting with copper, as I have been emphasizing, it has broken out of the triangular convergence pattern and the upward trend is continuing.
Additionally, while it is unclear how high it will rise, I would like to emphasize one point: it would be beneficial to monitor the short-term situation to see if a retracement occurs at this 200-day moving average line, as seen in the past. If I recall correctly, this rally was driven by money flowing into safe-haven assets as the dollar value increased.
However, as you can see, although it briefly touched the 200-day moving average, a retracement occurred immediately, leading to a significant decline. Personally, I anticipate a similar trend will occur soon, but if it breaks below this level, which has now become a support line, copper will re-enter a downtrend.
Since a sharp drop like in the past could follow, please make sure to keep an eye on copper if you are investing in semiconductors. Now, let's look at the Swax X chart. Since Intel announced its Q3 results, the semiconductor sector has maintained strength relative to the index. In just one month, it has risen by over 30% from its low point; if measured by SXL, it is over 90%.
There has been a tremendous surge, driven by AMD raising its guidance for the next quarter and positive news regarding Nvidia's sales in China. Furthermore, Nvidia's new move to circumvent China's semiconductor export restrictions... It can be said that the news of chip development and AMD's new chip announcement reversed semiconductor investment sentiment.
We are currently in a technically critical phase. We are attempting a breakout for the mid-term investment trend that has continued since this year. You might think that a breakout has occurred because the trend line was broken based on the closing price, but it is premature to view it as a breakout right now.
To explain it simply, I will divide the upper part of this mid-term trend into four sections: 1, 2, 3, and 4. Strictly speaking, the trend I am currently focusing on is the one connecting sections 1 and 3. Originally, it was a trend connecting sections 1 and 2. If you reconnect sections 1 and 2, it appears as though a breakout occurred around section 3 at that time.
However, if you had thought it had broken through and bought aggressively at that point, you would have suffered massive losses. I clearly advised shorting at that time, and you should not make judgments based solely on the trend. This is not to say that the trend is unimportant, but it is crucial to make a judgment by comprehensively analyzing moving averages, technical indicators, candles, trading volume, and so on.
Ultimately, the long-term moving average here acted as resistance, and the trend is section 1 and The trend has shifted back to reading point 3, and we are currently in a situation similar to point 4. Those who do not trust technical analysis probably will not understand this. Since chart interpretation criteria are ambiguous and vary from person to person, it could be seen as an attempt to justify one's own predictions after making subjective interpretations.
One could also present the Random Walk theory, which suggests that even analyzing past price fluctuations ultimately provides no help whatsoever in predicting future price movements. For these reasons, you likely do not trust technical analysis, but I respect that, as everyone has different perspectives and values.
In fact, just looking at this, the trend has shifted from reading points 1 and 2 to trusting points 1 and 3. It is easy in hindsight, but identifying the pattern in progress at the time of point 3 is extremely difficult, just as no one knows what kind of movement will emerge around point 4 right now.
However, I believe technical analysis is the most important thing right now. The current macro environment is extremely unstable, and in such an environment, I think charts are what we can trust even more. They allow us to find clues for actions that can help us recover in an unstable environment, and I believe they make it easier to judge the degree of risk involved in trading.
In fact, having suffered massive losses while investing in stocks... There is only one mistake people have made: failing to execute stop-loss orders in time. I believe the chart establishes the criteria for such stop-losses as well. That is why I think trading based on charts is the best approach right now.
I have strayed a bit from the topic, but let's go back to point 4. So, the key is how best to respond from the current position. First, just like with point 3, you should watch to see if it breaks through this long-term moving average. If it does, I believe there is upside potential up to the previous high near point 3, around the $423 level.
However, even if there is a further rise, I believe it is highly likely to occur after a short-term correction because the market is currently in a severely overbought state. The extent to which the market reflects the CPI is also unclear. If a correction occurs, it would be good to check this support line as a criterion for downside support.
Based on the current situation, you can consider the upside to be about 12% and the downside to be about 10% open. Looking at it in terms of sex ratios, since it is 3x, that would be 36% and 30%. I hope you respond according to your own investment style. Additionally, to mention one concern, the current 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields are The situation has clearly reversed.
The gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields, often referred to as an indicator of recession, continues to widen, and even the difference between the 10-year and 3-month yields is widening drastically. Currently, the market is reacting and moving with its entire focus on inflation and interest rates; if a correction occurs, I believe the reason will be the risk of a recession.
Therefore, I suggest keeping a close eye on the yield spread between long-term and short-term rates. That concludes today's video. I will share my stock market response strategy via my channel's community tab on Monday, so please keep that in mind. Thank you very much for watching. If this was helpful, please subscribe and like the video. If you have any questions or other comments, please leave a comment. Thank you.
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