저자: 미상 · 외국인
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시장 폭이 개선되며 소형주(IWM)가 주도하는 섹터 로테이션 가능성을 제시. S&P500은 430 저항 근접 상승 추세 유지를 전제로 강세 관점이나 427·423 갭 메움 가능성도 언급. 나스닥100은 350~360 구간 기술주 조정(6월 중 337~333 가능) 예상. 비트코인은 27,000 하향 이탈로 24,000 목표 하락 관점. 테슬라는 215 돌파로 230·260 목표 강세 관점. 애플은 176 갭 메움 가능성 언급. 금융·산업재 강세, 헬스케어·에너지 약세 흐름 제시.
다듬은 글
today we see Market breadth improving with the small caps leading the way higher as the S P 500 is relatively flat don't forget you can still claim the Memorial Day sale for 50 off Bank trade alerts or the stock Channel Discord all right so today's spy was up 0.22 and we're right back to the upper Bollinger band as we're approaching that critical resistance at 4 30 and we have this Gap to fill down here just below 423.
now this is a bull Trend until it's not so don't get bearish just because we're going higher we need confirmation price action is rolling over and then we'll be looking for a breakdown below the 5 EMA a gap though below and possibly a retest of this breakout at 420. so you can view this as a range now between 420 and 430 and if we break out above 4 30 we have very little resistance which I call Blue Skies until we get all the way into the 440s so that should be a very impulsive breakout if we break 4 30 all the way up into the 440s so that's why I say don't get bearish just for the hell of it you need confirmation from Price action that we're losing the bull Trend first sign of that will be the breakdown below this 5vma because we have such a strong bull Trend we need to see some cracks in the armor before we get bearish so don't get bearish just because make the chart prove it to you and right now the chart is still proving to us that it's bullish which is evident by today's price action now there is a good chance the Gap at 423 will fill but we need to see that rejection from 4 30.
so watch 430 423 and 420 those are your three critical levels to tell you where the next leg in this market is going to be remember the odds favor higher prices because we still have a very strong bull Trend and the path of least resistance is always going to be today so we had another day of going absolutely nowhere which is no surprise because we're sitting right in the middle of the bear cave remember I'm calling the bear cave the zone between 350 and 360.
this is where the bear is likely going to set up a position because this bear knows there's little risk to do so because he could drive prices back down into the 330s so I still expect there to be some type of tech correction in the month of June which could easily take us back down towards 337 or 333 but like I just got done saying with spy we need some cracks in the armor so we need the price to start at least closing down below the 5 EMA which is going to require a close down below about 352 and then 347.
remember if you're shorting the triple cues up here your risk level is still up there at 360 and you need to figure out how you're going to manage risk because we still do have a bull Trend yes we can go higher than 360 but this is a very critical resistance Zone and I don't think we're going too much higher without a pullback or some type of tech correction this Summer that doesn't mean I'm right s point zero one percent today so we also went absolutely nowhere in the Dow but we are building up a bullet Trend the longer we can hold above 336.
336 is going to be this bull breakout which could take us back into the 340s with upside resistance at 341 and 346. you can see today we bounce off the rising 5 EMA which is right around 334 so things are looking a lot more bullish in the Dow Jones so possibly we'll see money rotating into the Dow as we see this Tech correction if we do indeed get it on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were up 2.63 and again this shows sector rotation because this was on very high volume and we didn't see the other sectors like Tech going anywhere today so there's obviously money going into the small caps we broke out above 178 and we're holding that breakout we're back over the 200 daily moving average with the second daily close and we're sitting right on top of the resistance just below 185.
so iwm has a nice range between 178 and 185 and it's looking a lot more bullish the longer it can hold above 178 which means we could start running back higher into the 190s however that's going to require this break of critical resistance at 185 so watch that level and if we get the breakout you can get a lot more bullish because we also have volume supporting the buying on the arcade ETF we're up 1.47 we got the second day in a row of the breakout of the resistance and even though we are getting a little too far overextended overall this is bullish price action while we're trading above 41.
that means we're likely going to 43 and then 44 and then 46. so we do have upside price targets as we're developing this bull Trend which is evident by the moving averages all stacked to the bullish Direction and the bullish price action on the vix we were down 5.23 today and the vix is almost off of the chart now breaking down below 15 which tells us this is still a very low fear environment which is exactly what you see in a bull market remember low vix is not necessarily bearish the reason it was bearish last year because that was a bear market so don't confuse this a lot of people got this wrong this year because they're simply looking in the rear view mirror and they're only looking at what happened last year in order to get more bearish we need to see the vix out above 20.
on bitcoin we're currently up 4.6 and Bitcoin is trying to break down through that that critical support at 27 000 and right now we were just outside the lower ball under band and we're getting this little bit of a dead cat bounce back up to the breakdown so we are still below 27 000 which means we're still likely trending down towards my price Target at 24 000.
28 000. on Amazon stock we're up 1.05 and Amazon did make another higher high on the daily close and as it's pushing higher towards my target at 128 and I'll remind you you can stabilish above 120 but that is getting a lot farther away so you may want to use this risk level up here at 124. if we break 120 to 114.
on Tesla stock we're up 1.7 today and Tesla is confirming that bull breakout above the resistance at 215 with the second day in a row closing Above This level you can see the bull trend is quickly building and Tesla is one of the last big tech companies that hasn't had a very powerful bull run as you can tell it's just recently breaking back over its 200 daily moving average so I do think Tesla is about to go on a Face Ripper which is evident by the price action breaking above 215 and my price targets above will be 230 and then that Gap fell all the way up there which is just below 260.
so you can stay bullish in Tesla above 215 or the risk level down here right around 207 and remember this has been a bullish breakout ever since we started breaking above 197. on Apple stock we were down 0.21 today and apple is really just getting too far over extended outside the boner ban and likely coming down to fill this Gap below 176.
now if we bounce off 176 it's still a bull trend of higher lows and higher Highs but we need to assess the price action once we get there and remember Apple did have an intraday all-time high just yesterday so even though apple is getting a lot of profit taking it just hit a brand new all-time high yesterday so that is not surprising in the slightest to see some profit taking as we hit these higher prices the watch downside support levels at 179 177 and the Gap bill just below 176.
on the financials we're up 1.26 today as we're right on Resistance at the Gap foot at 33 and we're going to be getting a lot more bullish on the financial sector if we can start breaking above 33 and establishing a bull Trend which is going to require a break above that 200 daily moving average on the Industrials we're up 0.63 today getting very close to the top of this trading range which is going to be the critical resistance and if we break out above it we're instantly more bullish on the healthcare sector we were down 0.83 today getting rejected from that resistance that I was telling you about between 130 and 131 however we can't rule this out as a rejection until we get confirmation in a follow through which is going to require a breakdown Below 129.
on the energy sector we were up 0.81 today trying to bounce back up towards the resistance at 80.5 and as long as we're below 80 I still think there's a good chance we're we are at very critical resistance just below 430 and we do have gaps to fill to the downside and while I don't necessarily expect to see a massive correction in the S P 500 I do expect to see some cooling down in the big Tech sector that weakness in big Tech could be offset in spy by strength and financials Industrials and Healthcare so take a look at all of those sectors and look for evidence of any rotation if there's going to be rotation it's very likely going to be this month because we do have the third Friday of June as quad witching and we could see a lot of money moving around so have a trade plan be prepared for anything and then simply let the chart and the price action do all the talking and you're going to do just fine don't forget to take advantage of my Memorial Day sale where you can still get 50 off Bank trade alerts and the stocks Channel Discord find out how to join those
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