원문 보기
yes economic is coming china is aiming to overthrow the US dollar as the currency of choice for the oil market a move that could have far-reaching consequences since the 1970 s the oil trade has almost entirely been conducted in US dollars even when buyers and producers are not American the ramifications of the dollar denominated oil trade armaments the cause oil is priced in dollars there is huge demand for dollars lending the u.s.
economic and strategic power Beijing hopes to challenge the dollar by setting up a futures market with its own currency the UN to that end reports indicate that China is set to introduce an oil benchmark priced in un in the coming months for China there are a lot of upsides to this gambit an oil futures market based in you and will stimulate demand for the Chinese currency which China believes will lend its strategic clout that money is also more likely to be recycled back into the Chinese economy the US has been able to run huge budget deficits borrowing money at extremely low rates because of the demand for its currency petrol dollars continuously flow back into the US economy creating investment and economic growth that might not otherwise occur the dollar has also long been one of the Premier's safe havens for investors around the world China hopes to replicate this dynamic and as the largest oil importer in the world there is a great deal of logic in having oil contracts trade enuine but it won t be easy to unseat the greenback the plan is to launch an oil futures contract on the Shanghai international energy exchange ine but there are obstacles in convincing large oil producers and consumers in using the UN and investing in the shanghai benchmark without some major countries participating like say Saudi Arabia or Russia it will be difficult to create a market that is deep and liquid enough to make a difference moreover because the UN does not float freely it is fixed to the dollar and adjusted daily major investors will be wary of trading in the Chinese currency my biggest reservations are the role of the Chinese central government potential state intervention and favoritism toward Chinese companies said John Driscoll director of JTD energy services according to CNBC on the other hand China has slowly loosened its grip on its currency game-changers is not at least not yet gal Luft co-director of the Institute for the analysis of global security told CNBC but it is another indicator of the beginning of the glacial and I emphasize the word glacial decline of the dollar others see much more dramatic change coming from the launching of the shanghai benchmark he where'd Kiner managing director and chief investment officer of asset managers swiss asia capital told CNBC that the petrol Yuen is well advanced and already structurally in place up until now there have been some transactions in un but only in trade specifically with China and typically only with some smaller countries a run in particular was an early adopter of you and based oil sales an unsurprising fact given to Iran s eagerness to avoid the long arm of the US Treasury Department a more significant development was Russia agreeing to some UN based oil trade in 2015 also the result of US sanctions many believe that key to the success of the benchmark is convincing a country like Saudi Arabia to participate Saudi Arabia is one of the largest oil producers in the world and sells a little more than 1 million barrels of oil each day to China Russia is still the top supplier to China exporting one period 545 megabytes / T in September and in fact Russia has been taking market share away from Saudi Arabia in China if Riyadh wants to avoid losing more ground the thinking goes it may need to agree to un denominated sales recent reports that China s large state-owned oil companies are considering an outright purchase of five percent of Saudi Aramco a move that Saudi Arabia is rumored to be considering in lieu of the a ROM call I P o should be seen in this context I believe that you and pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis moved to accept it as the Chinese will compel them to do then the rest of the oil market will move along with them Carl Weinberg chief economist at high-frequency economics said on CNBC earlier this month at that point things would really start to change and the dollar would start to lose its top status some see that as unlikely as Saudi Arabia would likely be met with blowback from the US but it would be a difficult choice for Riyadh who's the Chinese market or sparked the ire of Washington it may not happen right away but the launching of the crude oil benchmark on the Shanghai exchange could mark the beginning of the end of the petro dollar China wants teddy throne the dollar and it could take a step in that direction before the end of the year according to numerous reports China is prepared to launch a UN denominated oil futures contract before Christmas last week the Shanghai International Energy Exchange successfully completed a fifth round of U and back toil futures testing according to a report by RT the organization has met all the listing requirements and is set for an official launch Chinese trader UN quite old Bloomberg the holiday season would be the perfect time to get oil trading in you and off the ground an official launch during Christmas would be appropriate the Western market would be quiet and allow the Shanghai exchange as well as Chinese investors to adjust in the early days this could be a Nightmare Before Christmas for the petro dollar in June China took the first step toward establishing a petrol youin when it launched a direct trade relationship with Russia allowing oil purchases to be made strictly in the Chinese currency but China faces hurdles as it tries to establish similar relationships with other oil exporters the UN is still widely viewed as unstable and illiquid economists now-why told Bloomberg the UN based contract has the potential to greatly help China s push for un internationalization but Bloomberg noted the hurdles the Chinese faced as the world s largest energy consumer and an increasing source of investment capital for oil-producing nations China has an interest in using its own currency rather than that of a geopolitical competitor one hurdle for setting up a rival to brand or West Texas Intermediate overseas oil producers and traders would need to Oh China s capital controls and penchant for occasional market interventions to help relay international fears China may back some UN based oil contracts with gold last fall the Chinese announced the launch of a gold-backed Dewan denominated oil futures contract these contracts would be priced in Yuen but convertible to gold as Alistair McLeod head of research at Gold money told the Asian review including an option to have a contract paid in physical gold would ease some of the wariness oil exporters have about their Yuen it is a mechanism which is likely to appeal to oil producers that prefer to avoid using dollars and are not ready to accept that being paid in you and for oil sales to China is a good idea leader a successful gold backed Chinese Petro Yuen could be bad news for the US dollar and for the broader US economy the dollar s strength is highly dependent on its use as an oil trade vehicle if a un begins to undermine the dollar s position we could see a steady decline in the greenback while the rise of the petrol U and his nightmare for the dollar it could be good news for gold if the Chinese gold backed Dewan denominated oil futures contracts prove successful it could push the yellow metal higher as the petrol U and further erodes the strength of the dollar and as news max reported the Chinese move is significant for gold in the more basic sense for the first time since our nation abandoned the gold standard decades ago physical gold is being reintroduced to the global monetary system in a major way that alone is incredibly good news for gold owners you
Comments 0