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if your Tesla stock is down and now you need another job well you could do some accounting and bookkeeping for meet Kevin just send an email to jobs at meet kevin.com with your resume and your expectations let us know what it'll take for you to move out to California because we need some help and quite frankly every Tesla investor needs some help and that's why we have a holidays coupon code down below expiring today okay all right now let's talk about Tesla folks wow wow wow Tesla another a rough rough morning at least that's how things are starting let's go ahead and talk about all the things that are going on Tesla and my first impressions of full self driving so in this video we're going to talk about 4680 production we'll talk about Neo Shanghai coveted lockdowns in China we'll talk about elon's shift in his behavior and then we'll talk about FSD so we've got a lot to cover let's hit it okay so first 4680 production this is actually really good news so if a Tesla has finally started providing a little bit more updates into some of the good news that's going on at Tesla and I think folks are completely blinded by how impactful these structural battery packs of the 4680 cells are going to be these cells are not only expected to charge substantially faster last substantially longer be a lot safer and be less expensive for Tesla to produce but they are expected to be the core of the Tesla cyber truck providing it potentially a substantially longer range and there are now rumors of potentially a faster supercharging Network like a super supercharging Network or probably something more like a supercharger V2 or some kind of better name but anyway that could charge the Tesla cyber truck even faster because if you have a lot of battery in a lot of range you don't want that supercharger stall well basically bogged down by cyber trucks all day long you got to keep people moving so people can get charges and so there's a rumor about a potential V2 supercharger coming out anyway these 4680 fees are expected at this point to be in production at a rate of uh well let's see in the last seven days they announced they did 868 000 cells enough for 1 000 Vehicles if all of these exclusively went into cyber trucks depending on what size of vehicle they're talking about maybe it's only 500 cyber trucks right again depends on the Range they're talking about here if they're comparing say model wise to cybers uh let's say there are a thousand cyber trucks though that would still be enough for 52 000 cyber trucks the first year and we expect that production to really go into effect this year for the Cyber truck which will be a pretty big game changing Catalyst for Teslas and so finally enter the sort of rugged Market if you will that's going to be big not only for construction but people who like Towing people who like camping it's going to be pretty dang incredible unfortunately in the meantime we have some very depressing short-term news such as Neo cutting their delivery guidance for Q4 due to the disaster that is going on in China Neo obviously sells vehicles in China so they give us a nice leading indicator of what to expect when they provide a guidance cuts for China and remember Tesla to sell a lot of vehicles in China as well Neo's guidance went from a production guidance and delivery guidance of 43 000 vehicles to 48 000 vehicles in just one quarter it's actually pretty good production from Neo that's not bad it's a midpoint of about 45.5 000 vehicles in just a quarter they reduce that to 38.5 to 39 5 000 Vehicles expected that's a midpoint of about 39 000 instead of 45.5 which basically represents a 16.3 percent drop in Q4 Outlook that's not good and that is definitely Weighing on Tesla sales and a lot of this is happening because of covet in China some of these things are absolutely ridiculous but what's not ridiculous is the fact that for 2 900 bucks you could Shadow me for a day and fly with me on my private chat as we go look at real estate take a look at the link down below you'll see two links one for the jet and being able to Shadow me for a day and the other one the programs on building your wealth that 2 900 bucks is probably going to double soon after this coupon expires so consider locking in we can book you anytime over really the next year we're pretty flexible uh however we are starting to get to the point where we can't manage how many bookings we have it's pretty incredible how many we have already uh but we're gonna have uh we're gonna have a pretty amazing time so check that out a link down below it's right next to the educational programs which has that same coupon code expiring today linked down below and if you have any bundle questions just email me at Kevin mekevin.com and I'll make sure you get taken care of with your bundle requests so regarding Shanghai all right so the there was a rumor that Shanghai was going to shut down on the 25th through the end of December it looks like Shanghai actually ended up being shut down on the 24th and so this led to some suggestions that wow Tesla's letting everybody go home early things must be really slow uh and now Tesla China has of course responded and said well this isn't completely accurate but they're not exactly the best at PR so hence stock down no this also you know comes in addition to the fact that in January Tesla Shanghai will have an extended product shutdown or production shutdown keep in mind Tesla Shanghai is the most inexpensive most efficient and uh most producing or top producing gigafactory for Tesla so it's a big deal at least until Berlin and Austin fully ramp and Fremont continue to use its build out although uh what you're paying in in uh Tesla uh California for cars is a lot more expensive than what you're paying in Tesla China but anyway the production shutdown is expected to run from January well from January 19th through January 31st that means we'll only actually see production from about January 3rd to January 19th that's uh that's only about 17 days in January that's almost a 50 shutdown if you consider the days that we're going to be down here in December we've got almost a total of well about three-fourths of a month of a shutdown for Tesla's most productive Factory so a little bit of a concern here especially since the public Chinese New Year holiday is technically from January 21st to the 27th so the fact that Tesla's going to be shut down from the 19th through the 31st four more days to here to there is a little bit concerning for some regarding production in China now In fairness it's worth noting that less people are buying cars in China right now because of well covet it's a complete disaster right now now part of that is actually because China is lifting a substantial amount of their coveted restrictions they actually just started removing their uh inbound traveler quarantine requirements which will be fully lifted on January 8th after three years of almost zero covet policies they'll also begin processing Visa applications again they've downgraded the management of kovid which originally allowed them to implement those really restrictive uh policies and lockdowns in China which have been become so famous for being an example of authoritarian government and they've changed the name of uh of of the virus from the new coronavirus pneumonia to new coronavirus infections this all of these changes are now uh sort of an Abrupt U-turn making it easier for people to actually conduct business and live in China at the same time China is also not going to publish a daily uh covet surveillance anymore however we've got plenty of insights into Coroner's offices uh you know where dead people go and hospitals being severely understaffed not enough fever medication so people are staying home longer and sicker longer the peak of this coveted surge is expected to be in January Manufacturing tech Hub gonna butcher this one XI Jang province which is also known as iPhone city is seeing 1 million coveted cases a day in just one city that's expected to double in about two weeks from now which puts us around January 10th activity is dropping everywhere retail sales shops restaurants down 18 Subway ridership is down 70 percent below its 2019 levels factory worker uh production export production car sales real estate sales everything is plummeting because everyone's sick daily seal production is down 3.4 percent uh and uh exports to South Korea are down 27 in just the first 20 days of the month China's insured units for Tesla's last week it came in at just 8915 those are new insurance registrations that's down from 10 000 to 254 just last week this is obviously clearly leading less Chinese to buy cars because everybody's freaking sick it makes complete and logical sense and usually and this is my opinion what happens in situations like this is rather than having a pull forward effect which is kind of like when you have like a Black Friday sale right let me give you an example you do a Black Friday sale and you're like hey Black Friday use the coupon link down below you know get get your programs on building your wealth and the educational programs and stocks real estate Black Friday sale okay usually when you have a really really big sale you sell less product in the weeks thereafter because people who would have ordinarily bought in the weeks thereafter have pulled forward their demand to a Black Friday let's say in in that example right the same thing happens in like solar sales or maybe even Tesla America or everybody kind of rushes in at the end of the year buys and then you have slower sales in January that's normal that's called a pull forward well in my opinion what's happening with covid is you're actually not destroying demand because everyone's car sales are going down right Neo's Car Sales Bentley car sales Tesla's car sales this is not a Tesla like loss of of sales this is a Tesla delay of sales it is a push back of sale sales and the stock dropping on on that is not actually in my opinion uh fundamentally sound because sure you're slightly delaying a little bit of your Revenue but it's kind of ridiculous since that revenue is still expected to come if anything you want to potentially consider betting on which company is going to be best when it comes to the rebound when Chinese actually start returning in droves to purchase Vehicles once everybody's kind of gone through you know the sickness okay now that said uh let's consider inventory in America for example it's kind of a fun little experiment to just hop around and explore what's going on with inventory in America you know it was just um it's just about a week and a half ago that I posted uh showing how how many vehicles it seemed like they were available in different areas uh and uh that is that is now vastly changed I mean this is 93004 there are no model threes available if I go to sort of the the south Florida ZIP code 33324 that's where I used to live I got nothing if I jump to model three I got nothing look at that I could pop between the two I got nothing so uh it's actually pretty incredible how it seems like all of this inventory is almost instantaneously uh sold out so really uh quite quite uh quite impressive uh and and uh hopefully we'll see some really good numbers there at the end of the year for Tesla now I do want to touch on Elon uh you know I sent an email to Vanda track and I'm a little bit disappointed because they uh they gave the answer to the Wall Street Journal and didn't respond to my email although usually they respond to my email uh emails I you know I thought this was a little funny I'm a subscriber van to track their their research firm they're very expensive but they're also very good but anyway they um I I emailed them I go hey can we get a number how much has retail bought Tesla stock uh so far this year in 2022 and then like three days later the Wall Street Journal runs an article according to Vander track retail has bought X dollars of Tesla throughout December 16 2022 and I'm like anyway so retail bought 15.2 billion dollars of Tesla uh now that contrasts to Elon Musk who has sold 23 billion dollars this year of Tesla that means retail needs to step up their buy and hoddle game by 50 just to break even from Elon musk's selling pressure on the order book how crazy is that that's pretty wild huh now I do want to give Elon props uh and and this is not to be political I have to give this disclaimer every time uh because every time I mention this people think that that like I'm making a case as to whether or not somebody should or should not be prosecuted I'm not bestowing my opinion on politics here at all I'm simply going to make a very clear point that when you're running an advertising business you are putting your foot in your mouth when you make very politically blunt statements I explained this many times I just have to be very careful about how I say because look I I try to be politically neutral on this channel everybody has some biases I really personally think I'm like a 5149 I think I'm so in the middle as much as you possibly can be uh but anyway uh I think that Elon has changed recently you know I've seen him on the Twitter spaces where he came in for an hour and spoke I've seen him on the all-in podcast did a great job on there he's actually been very very comforting he's realized that there are you know mistakes that have been made and things could have been done better and and his goal is to stop making those mistakes and uh and try to basically fail fast and improve quickly and I appreciate that as an entrepreneur I I feel the same way but what I've also noticed is he's really toned down his rhetoric on Twitter now he'll still respond to you know things on Twitter that are potentially wild and outrageous like he responded to Dimitri Medvedev going oh interesting thread that doesn't mean he believes it of course everybody freaked out over there I'm okay with that like please reply to people crossing the border bring attention to it you know reply to delete stream evident bring attention to it reply to anything you think is interesting all for that all for that please I think it's absolutely wonderful and so I think he's been doing a fantastic job of of doing just that uh however when he said prosecute fauci uh that was that was Peak stupid that was Peak stupid the good news is he's off of uh Peak stupid again I'm not bestowing my opinion as to whether or not that should or should not happen it's it's just solely that you wouldn't you should not say that as an advertise as an advertising company right you just alienate 50 of Americans it's stupid uh but but he's actually pulled back from that he's not doing that anymore so I was worried that that was actually going to be like the start and now it's like he's found his new you know uh you know more 60 70 on the right wing kind of tranche and it's like that's it these are my homies now F everybody else on the other side but I was worried about that but I think he's really kind of rained himself back in and he's being a little bit more uh neutral again which which is very very comforting he also talks about uh the cost structure of Twitter having been improved three to four acts Twitter no longer being on the path to uh bankruptcy the fast track to bankruptcy at least a burn rate of less than one billion dollars per year should break even in 2023 very very good very very very good so I'm very proud of Elon uh for his changes uh I did just get the full self-driving uh unfortunately I went on on a flight uh see I bought a plane because I was gonna make a joke that well since I can't get autopilot I'll buy a plane which has autopilot the name autopilot came from Aviation after all of course the same day that I go to pick up my plane which has autopilot I get autopilot in the Tesla and I'm like yeah that that is the day I would get out of it anyway so I finally got to try it out yesterday and uh I have to say um very impressive uh there there was a moment where somebody was severely crowding uh my Lane which uh uh it was it was a minivan I had to take over uh and you know jerk over uh so when this was when the other vehicle was right next to me so I don't know if that was harder for the Tesla to see or something like that but I did have to force take over I did also again revisit the frustration of not actually having a horn uh that's because I I you know as that happened I I hit the horn and kind of turned the wheel because I'm like stop like I'm here right that's the purpose of a horn to the like one percent of people who think you don't need a horn wake up there are situations where you might need a horn uh but uh but uh you know the thing is as drivers we do use our horn generally very rarely and so having driven for 14 years maybe more 14 15 years my human reaction is always if this is the steering wheel and you need to in a situation react quickly you hit the middle right but uh the the early model S plads the early yoke models uh which include some of the x's and other cars you actually have to hit the the button panel on the right uh which I have extremely difficulty or strongly complained about on Twitter as being completely stupid like that yes I understand the horn works when you do that but it's not innate in an emergency or in an urgent situation I should say right it's it's stupid uh fortunately and this is what I do like about Tesla they changed that about two months after I got my car and I you know I'm not trying to take credit for it but I did a lot of bitching on Twitter and on YouTube about two months after they actually added that sensor back to the middle of it very very proud of Tesla for doing that I just don't have it okay enough about the horn I just wanted to share that as an opportunity to show that Tesla does listen okay and I think that's very important uh for a company and I'm proud of them for that uh otherwise um I had other situations where a vehicle was about to crowd into my lane and uh the my Tesla was slightly behind it and slowed down saw that uh many very impressive unprotected left turns really cool I will say the creep is probably the neatest thing about full self-driving this is basically where if the cars at uh at sort of a an intersection and maybe you have a bunch of parked cars on the left and right you can't really see oncoming traffic it just slowly sneaks up to kind of get that visual down the left and right alley really impressive uh I I would say I had nominal interventions and uh in in certain that there was one instance where it kind of went into an area that it thought was an intersection uh and it treated it more as an intersection like a stop sign when the reality was it had the right of way to kind of turn uh but little edge cases like that were very rare and I didn't even take over in those cases the car ended up figuring it out itself uh very rarely did I have to take over and so I have to say I'm very impressed uh at this thing's ability to to drive me into a parking lot to go to pick up a bagel uh to to get me home from that parking lot without me having to do anything shocking really really shocking this is the future people don't realize that Tesla is a tech company right and this is where if we look at the models for Tesla oh my gosh let's talk about models man you know who would have thought that you would come to this Channel and you'd get to talk about models I mean like um so sexy he's models are so hot like there's such a turn on look at this uh no really here I I want to mention that you know obviously you've seen this spreadsheet before but uh one of the things that's remarkable about this is you know this represents about a six thousand dollar decline in Revenue per vehicle but uh you know because we're sitting somewhere around about 52 000 per vehicle right now right but if if we could maintain 52 000 a vehicle because of FSD oh boy that would be incredible but not only would that be incredible I want to show you a few things okay because you have to really play with this so if Revenue goes down to forty seven thousand dollars a vehicle uh 4.2 million Vehicles by 2025 50pe you're sitting at a 585 dollar uh future price Target given how low it is today it's a complete bargain is what it feels like hashtag not Financial advice yes right anyway but what I want you to see is watch this okay so I'm not going to add FSD in here because if I add FSD in here I'm going to take I'm only going to give it 30 margin right well I want you to see this okay watch this so instead of going uh Robo taxi here we're going to go FSD okay now what we're going to do is we're going to assume a 30 paid take rate all right so hold on um let's make uh this 30 but this needs to be not of the sales this needs to be of vehicles there we go so this many vehicles by uh of new production Vehicles end up buying FSD and we're going to multiply that by twelve thousand dollars or the current cost of FSD right so that's number of vehicles 4.2 times 30 percent which this number right here times twelve thousand dollars okay that's fifteen billion dollars of of Revenue right here now we're going to go over here and uh we need to take uh we need to add this to cost right so expenses on FSD expenses on FSD are not going to be 70 they might be closer to 10 above and beyond the r d expenses which are part of Opex which we already have right so now we're only going to do a 10 expense over here on uh on the FSD Revenue this is what people don't understand about Tesla and boy when Wall Street realizes this holy crap okay so now we're going to take this expense out let's go ahead now and add up all of these expenses let's make sure we actually have all of our boxes in here let's grab that one as well enter good now what's the future price Target look at that that adds a hundred bucks folks you got a hundred dollars to the potential future share price uh by uh by making this change now you go now type in that this sucker's selling for 120 bucks a share as its present value I mean you're you potentially see the stock increase 80 percent every year for the next three years that's insane uh in the meantime though you have to buckle up for bankruptcy because that's basically the direction we're going in uh you know it's it's what Warren Buffett says you know the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent holy crap it's down 6.4 I started filming this video on the green candles here and it's like oh it's okay it's recovering anyway so so uh I guess this down to 115 don't understand anyway that's why Tesla is falling the things we talked about oh wow Arc is down 3.5 the nasdaq's down 1.3 percent holy crap oh my gosh yeah this is dirty holy smokers uh anyway so uh yeah welcome to a recession and substantial fear I am of the belief that uh there's certainly more pain ahead especially since December's not over and just because we go into a new year doesn't mean that things actually change uh however if you do want some more end of the year tax deductions consider pre-buying yourself a day of shadowing uh with Kevin what some people are actually doing is they're buying multiple tickets uh so that way uh when the price goes up they could fly with me and uh you know March or February or maybe even January uh and then again in the summer and again in the in in the winter uh this we're going to be doing this for a while so it's going to be pretty cool uh I think uh it would be very beneficial if you have not already bought one of the courses to buy one of the courses rationale there is uh get caught up on sort of my perspective there and and then when we do shadowing you can be the most efficient with your time uh that's my thought here so anyway thank you so much for watching cheers everyone good luck try to stay sane this is the irrationality of the stock market and when things go up things come down that's the way stocks work and so you got to go through the pain to enjoy the gains oh almost cringe so it's true though it's just it's it's hard uh but um oh well good luck
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