저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가 하락 원인으로 중국 코로나 봉쇄·생산 중단과 인도 지연을 지목. 4680 배터리 양산과 사이버트럭 기대는 긍정적으로 봤으나 중국 판매 둔화는 일시적 수요 이연으로 해석. 차 판매 부진이 실제 수요 소멸이 아니라 지연이라며 반등 가능성을 언급. 머스크 주식 매도(230억 달러)와 리테일 매수 부족을 부담 요인으로 제시. FSD 시승은 대체로 긍정적이었고 FSD 수익 모델을 가정한 목표주가 100달러 이상 추가 주장. 영상 내 상품 홍보 다수.
다듬은 글
광고 및 인사
if your Tesla stock is down and now you need another job, well, you could do some accounting and bookkeeping for Meet Kevin. Just send an email to [email protected] with your resume and your expectations. Let us know what it'll take for you to move out to California, because we need some help. And quite frankly, every Tesla investor needs some help. That's why we have a holiday coupon code down below, expiring today.
OK, all right. Now let's talk about Tesla, folks. Wow, wow, wow. Tesla, another rough, rough morning, at least that's how things are starting. Let's go ahead and talk about all the things that are going on at Tesla and my first impressions of Full Self-Driving. So in this video we're going to talk about 4680 production, we'll talk about Neo, Shanghai, COVID lockdowns in China, we'll talk about Elon's shift in his behavior, and then we'll talk about FSD. We've got a lot to cover, so let's hit it.
4680 생산 소식
OK, first, 4680 production. This is actually really good news. Tesla has finally started providing a few more updates on the good news going on at Tesla. I think folks are completely blinded by how impactful these structural battery packs with the 4680 cells are going to be. These cells are not only expected to charge substantially faster, last substantially longer, be a lot safer, and be less expensive for Tesla to produce, but they are also expected to be the core of the Tesla Cybertruck, potentially providing a substantially longer range. There are now rumors of a faster supercharging network, something like a "super supercharging network," or probably something more like a Supercharger V2 or some better name. That could charge the Cybertruck even faster, because if you have a lot of battery and a lot of range, you don't want the supercharger stalls bogged down by Cybertrucks all day long. You have to keep people moving so people can get charged. So there's a rumor about a potential V2 Supercharger coming out.
Anyway, these 4680 cells are expected at this point to be in production at a rate of... well, let's see. In the last seven days they announced they made 868,000 cells, enough for 1,000 vehicles if all of these exclusively went into Cybertrucks. Depending on what size of vehicle they're talking about, maybe it's only 500 Cybertrucks, right? Again, it depends on the range they're talking about. If they're comparing, say, Model-wise to Cybers, let's say there are a thousand Cybertrucks, though, that would still be enough for 52,000 Cybertrucks the first year. We expect that production to really go into effect this year for the Cybertruck, which will be a pretty big game-changing catalyst for Tesla. So finally, Tesla enters the sort of rugged market, if you will. That's going to be big, not only for construction but for people who like towing and people who like camping. It's going to be pretty darn incredible.
중국 시장과 Neo 가이던스 하향
Unfortunately, in the meantime we have some very depressing short-term news, such as Neo cutting their delivery guidance for Q4 due to the disaster going on in China. Neo obviously sells vehicles in China, so they give us a nice leading indicator of what to expect. When they cut guidance for China, remember Tesla sells a lot of vehicles in China as well. Neo's guidance went from 43,000 vehicles to 48,000 vehicles in just one quarter. That's actually pretty good production from Neo, not bad. The midpoint was about 45,500 vehicles in just a quarter. They reduced that to 38,500 to 39,500 vehicles expected. That's a midpoint of about 39,000 instead of 45,500, which basically represents a 16.3 percent drop in the Q4 outlook. That's not good, and it is definitely weighing on Tesla sales. A lot of this is happening because of COVID in China. Some of these things are absolutely ridiculous.
광고
But what's not ridiculous is the fact that for 2,900 bucks you could shadow me for a day and fly with me on my private jet as we go look at real estate. Take a look at the link down below. You'll see two links: one for the jet and being able to shadow me for a day, and the other for the programs on building your wealth. That 2,900 bucks is probably going to double soon after this coupon expires, so consider locking in. We can book you anytime over the next year. We're pretty flexible. However, we are starting to get to the point where we can't manage how many bookings we have. It's pretty incredible how many we already have, but we're going to have a pretty amazing time. Check that out, link down below. It's right next to the educational programs, which have that same coupon code expiring today, linked down below. If you have any bundle questions, just email me at [email protected] and I'll make sure you get taken care of with your bundle requests.
상하이 공장 생산 중단
So regarding Shanghai. There was a rumor that Shanghai was going to shut down on the 25th through the end of December. It looks like Shanghai actually ended up being shut down on the 24th, and this led to some suggestions like, wow, Tesla's letting everybody go home early, things must be really slow. Now Tesla China has of course responded and said, well, this isn't completely accurate, but they're not exactly the best at PR, hence stock down. No. This also comes in addition to the fact that in January Tesla Shanghai will have an extended production shutdown. Keep in mind Tesla Shanghai is the most inexpensive, most efficient, and top-producing Gigafactory for Tesla, so it's a big deal, at least until Berlin and Austin fully ramp and Fremont continues to build out. Although what you're paying for cars in California is a lot more expensive than what you're paying in Tesla China.
Anyway, the production shutdown is expected to run from January 19th through January 31st. That means we'll only actually see production from about January 3rd to January 19th, which is only about 17 days in January. That's almost a 50 percent shutdown, if you consider the days we're going to be down in December. We've got almost a total of about three-quarters of a month of shutdown for Tesla's most productive factory. So a little bit of a concern here, especially since the public Chinese New Year holiday is technically from January 21st to the 27th. The fact that Tesla is going to be shut down from the 19th through the 31st, four more days, is a little bit concerning for some regarding production in China.
Now, in fairness, it's worth noting that fewer people are buying cars in China right now because of COVID. It's a complete disaster right now. Part of that is actually because China is lifting a substantial amount of their COVID restrictions. They just started removing their inbound traveler quarantine requirements, which will be fully lifted on January 8th, after three years of almost zero-COVID policies. They'll also begin processing visa applications again. They've downgraded the management of COVID, which originally allowed them to implement those really restrictive policies and lockdowns in China that became so famous as an example of authoritarian government. They've also changed the name of the virus from "new coronavirus pneumonia" to "new coronavirus infections." All of these changes are now sort of an abrupt U-turn, making it easier for people to actually conduct business and live in China. At the same time, China is also not going to publish daily COVID surveillance anymore. However, we've got plenty of insights into crematoriums, where dead people go, and hospitals being severely understaffed, not enough fever medication, so people are staying home longer and sicker longer.
The peak of this COVID surge is expected to be in January. The manufacturing tech hub, I'm going to butcher this one, Xi'an Jiangsu... Jiangxi province, which is also known as iPhone City, is seeing one million COVID cases a day in just one city, and that's expected to double in about two weeks, which puts us around January 10th. Activity is dropping everywhere. Retail sales, shops, restaurants are down 18 percent. Subway ridership is down 70 percent below its 2019 levels. Factory worker production, export production, car sales, real estate sales, everything is plummeting because everyone's sick. Daily seal production is down 3.4 percent, and exports to South Korea are down 27 percent in just the first 20 days of the month. China's insured units for Tesla last week came in at just 8,915. Those are new insurance registrations, and that's down from 10,000 to 25,400 just last week. This is obviously clearly leading fewer Chinese to buy cars because everybody's freaking sick. It makes complete and logical sense.
Usually, and this is my opinion, what happens in situations like this is, rather than a pull-forward effect, which is kind of like a Black Friday sale... Let me give you an example. You do a Black Friday sale and you're like, hey, Black Friday, use the coupon link down below, get your programs on building your wealth and the educational programs, and stocks, real estate, Black Friday sale. Usually when you have a really big sale, you sell less product in the weeks thereafter, because people who would have ordinarily bought in the weeks thereafter have pulled forward their demand to Black Friday. The same thing happens in solar sales, or maybe even Tesla in America, where everybody kind of rushes in at the end of the year, buys, and then you have slower sales in January. That's normal. That's called a pull-forward. In my opinion, what's happening with COVID is you're actually not destroying demand, because everyone's car sales are going down. Neo's car sales, Bentley car sales, Tesla's car sales. This is not a Tesla-like loss of sales. This is a Tesla delay of sales. It's a push-back of sales. The stock dropping on that is not, in my opinion, fundamentally sound, because sure, you're slightly delaying a little bit of your revenue, but it's kind of ridiculous, since that revenue is still expected to come. If anything, you want to potentially consider betting on which company is going to be best when it comes to the rebound, when Chinese actually start returning in droves to purchase vehicles once everybody's gone through the sickness.
미국 재고 현황
OK, now that said, let's consider inventory in America. It's kind of a fun little experiment to just hop around and explore what's going on with inventory in America. It was just about a week and a half ago that I posted showing how many vehicles seemed to be available in different areas, and that has now vastly changed. I mean, this is 93004. There are no Model 3s available. If I go to the South Florida ZIP code, 33324, that's where I used to live, I've got nothing. If I jump to Model 3, I've got nothing. Look at that. I could pop between the two, I've got nothing. It's actually pretty incredible how all of this inventory seems to be almost instantaneously sold out. Really quite impressive, and hopefully we'll see some really good numbers at the end of the year for Tesla.
머스크와 밴다 트랙 관련 데이터
Now, I do want to touch on Elon. I sent an email to Vanda Research, and I'm a little bit disappointed because they gave the answer to the Wall Street Journal and didn't respond to my email, although usually they respond to my emails. I thought this was a little funny. I'm a subscriber to Vanda Research, their research firm. They're very expensive, but they're also very good. Anyway, I emailed them and said, hey, can we get a number? How much has retail bought Tesla stock so far this year, in 2022? Then, like three days later, the Wall Street Journal runs an article saying, according to Vanda Research, retail has bought X dollars of Tesla throughout December 16, 2022. So retail bought 15.2 billion dollars of Tesla. Now, that contrasts with Elon Musk, who has sold 23 billion dollars of Tesla this year. That means retail needs to step up their buying game by 50 percent just to break even from Elon Musk's selling pressure on the order book. How crazy is that? Pretty wild, huh?
머스크에 대한 평가
Now, I do want to give Elon props. This is not to be political. I have to give this disclaimer every time, because every time I mention this, people think I'm making a case as to whether or not somebody should or should not be prosecuted. I'm not bestowing my opinion on politics here at all. I'm simply going to make a very clear point: when you're running an advertising business, you are putting your foot in your mouth when you make very politically blunt statements. I've explained this many times. I just have to be very careful about how I say things, because I try to be politically neutral on this channel. Everybody has some biases. I personally think I'm like a 5-1-4-9, I'm so in the middle as much as you possibly can be.
Anyway, I think Elon has changed recently. I've seen him on Twitter Spaces, where he came in for an hour and spoke. I've seen him on the All-In podcast, where he did a great job. He's actually been very, very comforting. He's realized that there are mistakes that have been made and things could have been done better, and his goal is to stop making those mistakes and basically fail fast and improve quickly. I appreciate that. As an entrepreneur, I feel the same way. But what I've also noticed is he's really toned down his rhetoric on Twitter. He'll still respond to things on Twitter that are potentially wild and outrageous. Like he responded to Dmitri Medvedev's "oh, interesting thread." That doesn't mean he believes it, of course. Everybody freaked out over there. I'm okay with that. Please reply to people, bring attention to things, reply to anything you think is interesting. All for that, please. I think it's absolutely wonderful, and I think he's been doing a fantastic job of doing just that.
However, when he said "prosecute Fauci," that was peak stupid. That was peak stupid. The good news is he's off of peak stupid again. I'm not bestowing my opinion on whether or not that should or should not happen. It's solely that you should not say that as an advertising company. You just alienate 50 percent of Americans. It's stupid. But he's actually pulled back from that and he's not doing that anymore. I was worried that was going to be the start, and now it's like he's found his new, more 60-70 percent right-wing tranche, and it's like, these are my homies, F everybody else on the other side. But I was worried about that, and I think he's really reined himself back in and he's being a little bit more neutral again, which is very, very comforting.
He also talks about the cost structure of Twitter having been improved by three to four times, Twitter no longer being on the path to bankruptcy, the fast track to bankruptcy. At least, a burn rate of less than one billion dollars per year should break even in 2023. Very, very good. Very, very, very good. So I'm very proud of Elon for his changes.
풀 셀프 드라이빙(FSD) 첫인상
I did just get Full Self-Driving. Unfortunately, I went on a flight. See, I bought a plane because I was going to make a joke that, well, since I can't get Autopilot, I'll buy a plane, which has autopilot. The name "Autopilot" came from aviation, after all. Of course, the same day I go to pick up my plane, which has autopilot, I get autopilot in the Tesla, and I'm like, yeah, that's the day I would get out of it. Anyway, I finally got to try it out yesterday, and I have to say, very impressive. There was a moment where somebody was severely crowding my lane. It was a minivan. I had to take over and jerk over. This was when the other vehicle was right next to me, so I don't know if that was harder for the Tesla to see or something like that, but I did have to force a takeover.
I also revisited the frustration of not actually having a horn. As that happened, I hit the horn and kind of turned the wheel, because I'm like, stop, I'm here, right? That's the purpose of a horn. To the one percent of people who think you don't need a horn, wake up. There are situations where you might need a horn. The thing is, as drivers we generally use our horn very rarely. Having driven for 14, maybe 15 years, my human reaction is always, if this is the steering wheel and you need to react quickly in a situation, you hit the middle. But the early Model S Plaid, the early yoke models, which include some of the X's and other cars, you actually have to hit the button panel on the right, which I've had extreme difficulty with and strongly complained about on Twitter as being completely stupid. Yes, I understand the horn works when you do that, but it's not innate in an emergency or an urgent situation. It's stupid.
Fortunately, and this is what I do like about Tesla, they changed that about two months after I got my car. I'm not trying to take credit for it, but I did a lot of complaining on Twitter and YouTube, and about two months later they actually added that sensor back to the middle. I'm very proud of Tesla for doing that. I just don't have it. OK, enough about the horn. I just wanted to share that as an opportunity to show that Tesla does listen. I think that's very important for a company, and I'm proud of them for that.
Otherwise, I had other situations where a vehicle was about to crowd into my lane, and my Tesla was slightly behind it and slowed down. I saw many very impressive unprotected left turns, really cool. I will say the "creep" is probably the neatest thing about Full Self-Driving. This is basically where, if the car is at an intersection, and maybe you have a bunch of parked cars on the left and right, you can't really see oncoming traffic, so it slowly sneaks up to get that visual down the left and right alley. Really impressive. I would say I had nominal interventions. There was one instance where it went into an area it thought was an intersection and treated it more like a stop sign, when the reality was it had the right of way to turn. But little edge cases like that were very rare, and I didn't even take over in those cases. The car ended up figuring it out itself. Very rarely did I have to take over. So I have to say I'm very impressed with this thing's ability to drive me into a parking lot to pick up a bagel, and to get me home from that parking lot without me having to do anything. Shocking, really, really shocking. This is the future. People don't realize that Tesla is a tech company.
테슬라 모델별 수익 모델 분석
And this is where, if we look at the models for Tesla... oh my gosh, let's talk about models, man. Who would have thought you'd come to this channel and get to talk about models? They're so sexy, their models are so hot, there's such a turn-on. Look at this. No, really. I want to mention that you've obviously seen this spreadsheet before, but one remarkable thing about it is that it represents about a six-thousand-dollar decline in revenue per vehicle. Because we're sitting somewhere around 52,000 per vehicle right now, but if we could maintain 52,000 a vehicle because of FSD, oh boy, that would be incredible. But I want to show you a few things, because you have to really play with this. If revenue goes down to forty-seven thousand dollars a vehicle, with 4.2 million vehicles by 2025 at 50 percent margin, you're sitting at a 585-dollar future price target. Given how low it is today, it's a complete bargain, is what it feels like. Hashtag not financial advice, yes.
But what I want you to see is this. I'm not going to add FSD in here, because if I add FSD, I'm only going to give it a 30 percent margin. I want you to see this. Instead of going to Robotaxi, we're going to go to FSD. Now what we're going to do is assume a 30 percent paid take rate. Let's make this 30 percent, but it needs to be of vehicles, not of sales. So of new production vehicles, this many end up buying FSD, and we multiply that by twelve thousand dollars, the current cost of FSD. So number of vehicles, 4.2 million times 30 percent, times twelve thousand dollars. That's fifteen billion dollars of revenue. Now we go over here. We need to add this to cost. Expenses on FSD are not going to be 70 percent. They might be closer to 10 percent above and beyond the R&D expenses, which are part of OpEx, which we already have. So now we're only going to do a 10 percent expense on the FSD revenue. This is what people don't understand about Tesla, and boy, when Wall Street realizes this, holy crap. So now we take this expense out. Let's add up all of these expenses and make sure we have all our boxes in here. Enter. Now what's the future price target? Look at that. That adds a hundred bucks, folks. You've got a hundred dollars added to the potential future share price by making this change. Now type in that this sucker's selling for 120 bucks a share as its present value. You potentially see the stock increase 80 percent every year for the next three years. That's insane.
In the meantime, though, you have to buckle up for bankruptcy, because that's basically the direction we're going in. It's what Warren Buffett says: the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Holy crap, it's down 6.4 percent. I started filming this video on the green candles here, and it's like, oh, it's okay, it's recovering. Anyway, I guess this is down to 115, I don't understand. Anyway, that's why Tesla is falling, the things we talked about. Oh wow, ARK is down 3.5 percent, the Nasdaq's down 1.3 percent. Holy crap, oh my gosh, yeah, this is dirty. Holy smokes.
마무리
Anyway, welcome to a recession and substantial fear. I am of the belief that there's certainly more pain ahead, especially since December's not over, and just because we go into a new year doesn't mean things actually change. However, if you do want some more end-of-year tax deductions, consider pre-buying yourself a day of shadowing with Kevin. What some people are actually doing is buying multiple tickets, so that when the price goes up, they could fly with me in March or February, or maybe even January, and then again in the summer and again in the winter. We're going to be doing this for a while, so it's going to be pretty cool. I think it would be very beneficial if you have not already bought one of the courses to buy one, to get caught up on my perspective there. Then when we do shadowing, you can be the most efficient with your time. That's my thought here.
So anyway, thank you so much for watching. Cheers, everyone. Good luck, try to stay sane. This is the irrationality of the stock market. When things go up, things come down. That's the way stocks work, and so you've got to go through the pain to enjoy the gains. Oh, almost cringe, but it's true. It's just hard. But oh well, good luck.
Comments 0