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팔란티어와 페이팔 실적 리뷰. 팔란티어는 EPS·매출 어닝 서프라이즈와 높은 잉여현금흐름 마진을 근거로 긍정적이나 과거 실적 의구심을 언급. 페이팔은 실적 호조에도 주가가 하락 중이며 가치투자 관점에서 60달러 부근 매수 대기(현금담보 풋옵션)를 제시. 내재가치 추정은 방법론 설명 위주이며 영상 시점 기준 과거 발언.
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all right guys palantir and PayPal palantir just reported they reported five cents in profit versus four cents they just beat by a penny 525 million in Revenue versus the estimated 506 billion in Revenue 189 million dollars in free cash flow representing a 36 margin now guys palantir has quite the storied history with our channel that Tom Nash who is literally one of the dumbest people in the world was a big supporter of palantir at 45 bucks and we said yeah we don't buy it we're more interested on the five dollar mark it hasn't really gotten to five but we've got an interested in palantir but I will be honest with you we had some concerns about how they reported their profit last quarter all of a sudden sliding in at one cent beat having some assets that gained on their books that were not there before just some questions now the good news is their free cash flow has been good and growing growing and consistently growing do you remember what the free cash flow was last quarter as a percentage of Revenue you can look that up real quick is it 10 quarters in a row now that they've at least I think it's yeah I think it's at least 10 quarters in a row of positive free cash flow so they did last quarter 73 3.85 on what Revenue revenue of 1.91 nope that's that a year when you get a quarter quarterly 73 on five so that's 15 so they already they had more they had almost double no over double the free cash flow margin this quarter last quarter okay that's some good stuff guys that's Microsoft level numbers okay now that could be a fluke but we'll Factor it in there but palantir is currently up big after hours and even being up big our good friend Tom Nash is still down a ton when he told all of you the palantir was going to the moon at 45.
now well I have stocks that I buy that'll go down absolutely well they go down 60 70 absolutely but that'll happen and I will continue to buy more shares because the stocks I'm gonna buy they're gonna go down are probably going to be down for reasons of the market in general this was a hype stop we didn't believe in it there are videos of everybody telling us we were wrong on it and finally the market said hey you're probably right on it now the question is is palantir a great growth growth story well let's go through some numbers first off something I like about palantir well look at this 15 and a half billion dollar market cap look at that Enterprise Value nice so guys they have a lot of cash on hand and very little debt if anything that's the difference here usually Enterprise Value is higher this is awesome so it's hard for a company to go out of business when they have so much cash okay but look at this beautiful chart this was Tom Nash right here time Nash if he hasn't deleted the videos yet go to his channel check it out see where he says this thing is going to the moon and then ask him hey when did the moon go down to the middle of the Earth it's just it's getting its Rockets warmed up now does that mean this is going further down no remember a stock can look great at five and terrible at 50.
that's the point of investing oh it's up 23 right now now it's up 23 percent Wowzer so this morning it opened at seven dollars and forty cents and now it's at 9.56 wow that's pretty good okay I have a friend of mine I think whose basis is like eight bucks wow yeah he's happy right now um I should text him and ask I'll ask him yo do we know who this is who you know who do I know who it is uh you know you know of them you've never met them okay it's a son of a friend of Lisa's gotcha um and he saw it randomly he said he said he saw some tweet where some guy posted and said even Paul's even Paul from everything money is interested and he didn't know I had a channel and he literally messaged me he's like look what I just saw I was like oh he's like yeah I own palantir he's like my base is like eight bucks oh my God good for you nice all right so um I think palantir first off the eight pillars are garbage here we don't have enough data it's a growing company it's still showing some minor losses they're expected to show 21 cents in profit this year but look at this is interesting Moe yeah that's what boggles my mind because look at free cash flow the free cash flow at 36 of Revenue let's say it's stabilizes at 20 percent if they do they do this five billion dollars in Revenue in 2027 times 20 that's a billion dollars in free cash flow guess what though times fifteen is 15 billion in market value call it times 20.
there's not much meat left in the bone there call it times 20. it's currently at 15 billion and it's saying a value based on uh that's the hard part about growing companies we don't know where they're gonna go right we have no clue this is up 25 and a half 26 and a half percent now I cannot wait to see where this opens the day tomorrow we've seen some really wild moves we've seen companies go up like 15 and they open like down four percent Amazon less a week or two weeks ago whatever it was was up 11 at this point open the day down yeah because overnight they go on a call and somebody says something that somebody doesn't like that 27.5 come on 30.
come on 30. it's like gambling thank you getting excited makes our resident Gambler does Nick have palantir stock no he just likes to gamble okay all right so again let's see they're um okay commercial Revenue grew 15 year-over-year government revenue grew 20 year over year okay let's see customer count group 41 yep so the reason I like that is they're taking on smaller contracts to grow their revenue I actually do like that U.S commercial customer account increased 50 year over year adjusted income operations margin of 24 percent wait a second cash from operations of 187 million and adjusted free cash of 189.
how'd they have more free do they have no cat-backs doesn't even make sense um this company is weird man that's the thing the company's weird I I I don't get I don't know their call is at 5 pm today if anybody's interested yeah they don't have anything else I guess they'll oh well maybe get here let's see has PayPal reported yet yes okay PayPal's reported they were expected to do a dollar ten in profit what did they do 1.17 beating by seven cents I like it and they respects me to do um 6.99 billion in Revenue what do they do 7.04 let's see how the company is doing after hours and I just wrote puts on PayPal today it's down down so isn't that weird guys they beat on both Revenue EPs and revenue and they're down right now that's very very interesting two percent now all right can you tell me some of the Bull and Bear cases for PayPal before we go any further so bull cases I think one of the bold cases is that they bought venmo and everybody uses venmo love Venom I mean shifting they're shifting focus and strategy from growing users at all costs to profitability congratulations thank you that's a bull case I appreciate that okay it's funny when you go and look at these things on like Seeking Alpha or Motley Fool or something some of the bold cases are really funny and some of the bare cases are hilarious okay like what's some of the bear cases Fair case earnings for active account has fallen from Seven dollars and seventy cents per user in 2018 to 5.56 cents per user in 2022.
so the goal is that hopefully they had such user growth that that overcame it anyhow yeah what's another bear case anything else no not for not for PayPal okay so let's take a look at some PayPal metrics um 85 billion dollar market cap Enterprise value of 132. that's a lot of debt now I wonder how much of that debt there the difference there is based on having money there that they owe to um they owe to the users Etc profit margin in the last year was 8.8 versus a five-year profit margin average of 14.2 percent so it's down a lot the question is is that temporary because I will say this their free cash flow is up in the last year versus their five-year average so this tells me this might have been a write-off or something some sort of fluke that they just did because their free cash flow is actually higher than it was in the last five year average that's pretty awesome now as this is uh five billion dollars is 17 times free cash flow for the last five years and almost that for the last uh sorry for the last five years last year is about 17 times all right not bad especially for a company that has a lot of growth potential now I will say this return invested capital is not very high not as high as I thought it'd be I thought it would be much higher yeah 9.5 now the question becomes on growing companies roic can at sometimes look lower because they take a lot of their net operating profit and reinvest it back in the business I'm hoping that's the case here my job is to do more research on that to determine if that's actually the case okay so I'm hoping this number is subdued guys I will say when I want safety and something I'm buying I go to PayPal what's your um look for just check the other pillars let's look at the eight pillars guys but you are correct if you want safety you go to PayPal oh wow eight the seven not of the eight pillars now guys ows up to 12 pillars and there's like four quadrillion different variations you can do which is awesome Wowzer yeah buy back some shares oh boy why do they buy back shares those idiots they've done two Acquisitions in the past three years yeah three years one for 3.6 billion one for 2.75 billion probably venmo is one of them probably yep all right let's see what analysts are saying about the company eps that's going to be going from five dollars a share estimated this year to eight dollars a share in three years now again these are analysts I don't know about that one they have their biases don't forget that you've got to remember that their bias is just as strong if not stronger than yours Revenue growth double digits okay fine by me pretty good growth guys there's a lot of potential worldwide as the world becomes stronger economically more and more people are going to be using mobile methods to pay especially when it involves overseas transactions when I buy something from China you better believe I pay with PayPal every single time how do I do that here yeah I try to buy with PayPal every chance I get I want a reliable company to back up my purchase where if I don't like it I can easily contest it and they're very pro-consumer right never had an issue never had anything I mean I've had an issue but they've always corrected it for me that's awesome so the question becomes what are we going to pay for PayPal now guys this is a stock I want to remind you this is a stock that had an all-time high of 310 back in July of 2021 hit a low of 66 just this last Christmas this last Christmas December 22nd and it's been in this range here let's see the last six months it's only down about six and a half percent but it's been in a reasonable range here right not I'm not talking about from a technical analysis but just overall it's been sideways for a while so what's going to happen here I don't know point is as a value investor as an investor your job is to determine a price for the company that you want to buy the company at and when it dips below that price you buy it I do that every Monday now every stock that I own that I like I run it through my stock analyzer tool every Monday and if it's below my middle price I buy that's my method that works for me that's the method that works for me personally might not work for you might not work for Mo you do the same thing now right about a couple companies today because we want to force ourselves to buy companies instead of waiting for our puts to hit and the reason is um Simplicity keeping things simple is the best way taking out the emotion of it is the best way of going about all of this that's improving time and time again taking the emotion out of buying and selling is going to do better for you than having to guess as time goes on yeah I just buy when the stocks make sense and I have not sold I mean I've sold a few companies where my thesis has changed like Walgreens like Carnival Cruise Line those two I was like oh boy I think I was wrong and by the way on both of them I made money I made money on both them even though my Feast I was like whoa I think I just got by the way I got lucky I got lucky I got absolutely lucky all right so we're gonna do our use our stock analyzer tool I'm gonna do a 20-year analysis Moe's gonna do 10.
the point of you have to assume what's going to happen in the future it can be a wide range a low middle high range and your job is to evaluate it based on that and when the stock is selling for a good price you have a decision to make this tool right here last year alone it's the most popular part of our site remember it's not the only tool on our site Moe's also a tool in our site ah Bam Bam Bam dab so if you like the software if you want to get access to community we have a special seven dollars for seven days it's a no-brainer guys this is absolutely no-brainer you get all these tools the tools that are coming you can this will literally change the way in which you look at investing and it's only one dollar a day for seven days to try it out come on you're kidding me here so we're gonna sit here put our assumptions in and come right back to you 10 year analysis from mo mo what were your Revenue growth assumptions next 10 years I did three six and nine percent I did five nine and thirteen for the next 10 years all right Mo would you do for profit margin 8 12 and 16.
I did 12 13 and a half and 15. so if we go into type any type of recession buying could shrink you're right but I'm looking at factoring it in I'm looking at 20 years you're looking at 20 years I'm looking at 20 years by the way I think even for 10 you should do that for five years I think you'd alter it lower yeah yeah so there's a difference guys you see this right here this is the art of investing Mo and I are good friends we have very similar views but look at us differing on this on this company we just did a video on Alibaba where our views are basically the same on it yeah but here we're differing big time all right free cash flow margin so I did 16 20 and 24.
yeah I don't think it's bad I did 18 20 and 20. actually you motivated me I'm gonna do 17 20 and 23. okay because yeah okay uh p e Pei went 15 16 17. I almost went 15 17 19 but I didn't because return on uh invested Capital was low and I was like I'm gonna bring that down so I believe the return invested capital is being altered low oh okay I do think that as they reinvest their money back in the business it's going to alter that notepad Okay the net operating profit after tax okay I did 15 17 and 19 for both PE and price of free cash flow even though free cash flow is much higher right right all right and what'd you do for desired return I did 10 12 and 14 okay I still did 11 on the low I usually do 10 if I bid a company up but I think there's still a lot of competition for PayPal I don't think it's I don't think it's clearly obvious that it is the it's going to be the leader forever yeah so I still want to get a higher and guys remember as you make your assumptions higher you need a higher margin of safety and that's what you're getting with you don't just take the stock price and take this is your margin of safety the higher return the lower the stock price all right I hit the analyze button what'd you get Mo I got 28 dollars to 58 high-end 72 to 108 Middle Ground 50 to 80 somewhere in there look at how different our numbers are these are very different I got a low price of 48 to 68 a high price of 123 to 190 a middle price of 76 to 113.
the question is should I start a position I have it on my watch list at 65. now I did that before the recent quarter numbers came out right and new quarters are coming out right now too I did this a long time ago it might be time for me to reevaluate this company and decide if I'm a buyer unless they come out here and announce something that's detrimental to business long term I don't care what they report I wish they'd reported instead of a dollar ten 70 cents I wish they would plummet in value because I look at a business long go look at the companies you love go look at their revenue and profit it doesn't go up like this it goes up kind of like this okay you've got to be okay with that you've got to find the companies that have good fundamentals that you can buy at a good price when people don't necessarily want them as much look at PayPal all-time high 310 on July 26 2021.
currently at 73.41 down 2.8 percent and their low was 66 dollars back in December not to tell you guys I'm looking at the press release right now total payment volume of 354.5 billion growing 10 and 12 percent on an fx neutral basis now look at this net revenues growing nine percent is zero over year Gap income a billion dollars growing 41 everything is good news out of here they raise their forward guidance in the in the next day they raise their guidance raising EPS guidance so why is this down three percent now the thing doesn't make sense can you guys just understand this the markets are not efficient in the short run it's emotions it's Mr Market how did this company beat both EPs and revenue raise guidance palantir beat in a Skyrocket 20 what's pounds Europe I'm gonna look at pounds here hang on a second don't tell me I'll plug up balance here palantir is up oh 25 oh it's coming down baby coming down oh somebody sent me a message I'm sure it's somebody's saying Paul did you see your palantir guys we want you to learn this we want you to understand that y're a weighing machine and that means sometimes you have to be okay not buying stocks yep you got to be patient you got to wait for the right price I know it sucks that's why you need to learn options you can sell cash secured puts to make money in the stocks you currently own you can sell cash sorry cash secured puts to buy stocks at prices you want while you wait and then covered calls on stocks you currently own I have cash secured puts on PayPal at 60 bucks so I'm getting paid to wait for it to hit 60 and if it doesn't I get paid along the way anyhow right that seems like a pretty good world to be in so guys if you like this if you like our Channel subscribe to the channel but also join our software you get everything here seven dollars for seven days one dollar per day we have so many tools in the software you've only seen one of them and we have seven or eight plus the chat this is a no-brainer one dollar per day everythingmind.com store everythingmoney.com overall thank you very much for your time thank you
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