저자: Kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
SOXL은 반도체 실리콘 사이클상 하락 가능성이 있어 장기보유에 부적합하다며 전량 매도했다고 밝힘. 세계 반도체 매출은 전년비 마이너스 국면이라고 설명. 그러나 SOXL/TQQQ 대신 TECL을 장기 보유 대안으로 비교하며, 연간 수익률이 낮은 해 다음해에 SOXL을 매수하는 전략의 백테스트 결과(2010~2021)를 제시. 시장은 낙관적이고 큰 폭락을 예상해 현재는 매수를 자제한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Kazuma. Thank you for watching again today. Today, I'd like to start by saying goodbye to SOXL, the only long-term investment that isn't really suited for long-term investment. Are any of you holding SOXL? Last time, when the sell signal came on, I sold all the SOXL I was holding, so at the moment I don't hold a single yen of SOXL.
SOXL is an ETF managed by Directional Motors, called Semiconductor Blues 3x, and is composed of semiconductors as its theme. SOXL fell sharply by 80% from its peak during the COVID shock, but since the COVID shock, the balance between supply and demand has been disrupted due to the increase in working from home and the increased demand for mobile phones and computers, as well as disruptions in the supply chain, and the resulting shortage of semiconductors has led to situations where cars cannot be manufactured.
However, despite the rising price of semiconductors, demand has continued to increase, and semiconductor performance has risen, resulting in a situation where SOXL has risen from its peak during the COVID shock to its peak in 2021 in about two years. The unrealized gains and losses exceeded 1600%, reaching 17 times the initial investment.
However, as the saying goes, no party lasts forever, and SOXL experienced a massive crash in 2022. This is likely due to a phenomenon you've all heard of: semiconductor companies operate under a cycle called the silicon cycle. The silicon cycle is a unique economic cycle specific to the semiconductor industry, with successors and recessions occurring in roughly four-year cycles.
This graph shows global semiconductor sales, and you can see that sales have been decreasing approximately every four years since the Lehman Shock. Currently, global semiconductor sales are declining, and the growth rate has entered a negative year-on-year phase. As I mentioned earlier, semiconductors are incorporated into mobile phones, computers, cars, and other electronic products.
The manufacturers of these semiconductors include TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, which were recently featured in the news due to massive purchases by the "investment guru." Semiconductors are manufactured in factories called cleanrooms, where airborne particles and microorganisms are kept below a certain level of cleanliness.
Each company invests trillions of yen in equipment to build these factories. They are building factories using funds like yen, but investing a large amount of money to build a factory means that they have to produce a lot of goods in order to make a profit. However, producing a lot of goods means that a lot of goods are supplied to the market, and then supply exceeds demand, so they have to drastically lower the price to sell the goods that are no longer selling.
And when prices fall, the profits of the companies that are producing the goods fall. In this way the semiconductor industry cools down, but after the cooldown, the demand for semiconductors rises again, and this cycle is called the silicon cycle, and even when it seems to be growing smoothly, it turns negative once every 3 to 4 years.
So just as there is no party that lasts forever, semiconductors also turn negative after rising. This is the same as the market cycle that I introduced before, where there is a summer and a winter, there is a rise and a fall. And currently the situation for semiconductors remains quite tough, with global semiconductor sales year-on-year entering negative territory, but semiconductors are not able to predict the state of the economy.
Amidst all this talk, as you all know, Warren Buffett, the semiconductor-buying grandpa, has purchased 700 billion yen worth of TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor company from Taiwan. This might make you think that with such a large investor buying at this time, now is the perfect time, but Warren Buffett has stated that his investment policy is to buy good stocks cheaply and hold them indefinitely, so whether the stock price goes up or down today, tomorrow, or next month doesn't really matter to Warren Buffett.
In other words, it can be inferred that Buffett doesn't think the timing and cost of purchasing TSMC was a huge loss. This is just my opinion, of course. So I think that Warren Buffett might head back in when the price drops even further. By the way, the 700 billion yen that Buffett purchased is a considerable amount to me, a low-level YouTuber, but it's not a big deal to Warren Buffett.
When Warren Buffett purchased TSMC, he owns over 40% of his assets in Apple, and since TSMC manufactures Apple's products, I believe that's why he made the purchase. I do n't think he specifically bought semiconductors to expand his portfolio and target the "royalty" of the stock market. As for when the "royalty" of the stock market will arrive, only God knows, so we are aiming for the optimal timing for interaction.
As I have said many times before, I do not think that we are currently at a huge loss. And Howard Marks, who published the book "20 Most Important Lessons in Investing," highly praised by Warren Buffett, says that after the global financial crisis and the Lehman Shock, another opportunity is coming for us.
Marks predicts that US inflation has likely peaked, but that interest rates will remain around 5% for the next 5 to 10 years. A year ago, it was thought that there were no limits to the outlook, but now investors are : "I think there's something wrong with your mindset when you think it's no good. That's when you should make a big trade," he said.
What I mean to say is that Howard Marks is saying that a big bargain sale is coming as interest rates rise and a recession approaches. However, SOXL hit a high in October and has risen by 85.57% in the month since then, while QLD, which moves in almost the same way as Levanast, has risen by 19.95%, showing an increase of about 20%.
The BIX index, which indicates investor anxiety and is considered a warning zone when it exceeds 30%, is currently at 20.51%, and the market is quite optimistic. If stock prices continue to rise, we will miss out on the current bargain sale prices, but if there is another crash, buying in bulk now will mean we will miss out on the big bargain sale that may come in the future.
By the way, I predict that a major crash will occur in the future, so I am refraining from buying at this time. So, everyone, do you believe Howard Marks, whom Warren Buffett highly praises, or do you believe in yourself? Or Do you trust me, a simpleton nicknamed "Pon-chan"? We won't know the answer until 10 years from now, but is now the perfect time for the hippocampus, or has the big bargain sale just not arrived yet?
I'm 50% sure I'm wrong, so I'll bet on the latter and continue to wait for what Howard Marks calls the big bargain sale. However, I might change my investment decision in an instant, so if you're interested in the timing of buys and sells, I post updates on Instagram, so please check that out as well.
As usual, my introduction has been long, but next I'd like to talk about the only long-term investment in SOXL that isn't suitable for long-term investment, and how to send it off and secure it. First of all, I'd like to talk about why some people think SOXL isn't suitable for long-term investment, but this is entirely my opinion and not necessarily the correct answer, so please take it with a grain of salt.
First of all, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, so the daily fluctuations are extreme, and while it delivers tremendous performance when it rises, it also shows tremendous declines when it falls. From its peak last year to October 14, 2022, SOXL experienced a massive drop of -90.51%. TECL, another 3x leveraged ETF, fell by -77.96% from its peak to October 14th of last year.
Comparing SOXL and TECL, it's clear that SOXL has significantly higher volatility. Furthermore, the unrealized gain/loss of SOXL from its launch on March 11, 2010, to its peak last year was 1987.94%, meaning an investment of 1 million yen would have yielded 110,879,400 yen. In contrast, an investment of 1 million yen in TECL at the same time would have yielded an unrealized gain/loss of 9204.04%, resulting in an investment of 93,040,400 yen.
SOXL has clearly outperformed. However, how many people were able to sell at the peak on December 27, 2021? The monthly chart shows a downward trend as the stock price declines from its peak. At the time the McLeed cross occurred, the performance of SOXR was 69,496,300 yen, while the performance of TCL was 70,974,500 yen, so at this point TCL was performing better.
And as of now, the performance of SOXR is 19,357,100 yen, while TCL is 29,109,100 yen, so TCL is overwhelmingly winning. So, if you asked me whether I would invest in SOXR or TCL, both 3x ETFs, for the long term, I would choose TCL. However, I'm not choosing TCL just because its performance is better than SOXR.
SOXR is composed of semiconductors as its theme, so if the demand for semiconductors weakens, SOXR will suddenly be in a tough situation, and I think there is a possibility that a product that will replace semiconductors will be created in the future, so I think SOXR, being a theme stock, is not suitable for long-term holding.
However, SOXR is still quite attractive when it is rising. So, this time I'm comparing the 3x ETFs TCL and SOXR. I'd like to see what kind of investment results we can expect if we incorporate these into our portfolio. However, simply verifying an investment strategy where 50% of the portfolio is TCL and the remaining 50% is SOXL wouldn't be very interesting.
So, this time, I'd like to compare the annual returns of SOXL and TCL and see if we can outperform a strategy where we invest in the stock with the lower return the following year, compared to a strategy where we invest all in SOXL or all in TECL. Here are the annual return rates for SOXL calculated year by year from March 11, 2010, when it was launched, up to the present.
The annual registration rate for TECL during the same period is as shown, and in 2011, 2018, and 2019, when SOXL's return was lower than TECL's, we purchased SOXL. In other years, since TECL 's annual registration rate was lower than SOXL's, we purchased TCL. In 2021, SOXL's return was lower, so the rule is to purchase SOXL in 2022, but until March 2023...
Since we do not have the data at this time, we will limit the investment period to 2021. We will also look at the investment results up to the present, assuming an investment of 1 million yen in each city. However, since we do not have data for 2010, we will invest half, 500,000 yen each, in both soxltecl and tecl.
Please note that taxes and fees are not included in the verification. Now, let's get started with the verification. First, let's look at the investment results for soxl and tecl if we invested 1 million yen each year from the start date of the investment, March 11, 2010, to 2021. The results are as follows: With an investment principal of 12 million yen, the investment result for soxl was 100,660,100 yen, and the investment result for tecl was 132,670,600 yen.
Next, let's look at the investment results if we traded the stocks with low annual registration rates on the Tokyo Stock Exchange the following year. The result was 103,318,930 yen. Unfortunately, my all-in investment in TCL was a failure, but my all-in investment in SOXL was a success. Incidentally, if I had invested in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the peak price on December 27th of last year was 492,453,800 yen, which is a victory over the 415,764,500 yen I would have achieved if I had invested all in TCL.
However, during the rise, investing all in SOXL alone would have yielded overwhelmingly better performance, resulting in a profit of 582,573,000 yen. However, as I mentioned earlier, there are no superhumans who can sell at the peak price, so this data is not very useful as a reference. However, by buying SOXL at a low price, you can reap the high performance during the rise, resulting in better results than TCL.
However, this Tokyo Stock Exchange investment was just a comparison of TCL and SOXL, so next time, I will only buy SOXL in the year following the year when growth slows down, which is a time that inevitably occurs in the silicon cycle unique to the semiconductor industry. Let's take a look at how much money has been made so far if we had purchased TCL in the other cities.
Looking at the annual registration rate every year since March 11, 2010, when SOXL began operations, there were three cities that experienced negative growth: 2011, 2018, and 2021. As before, we will use 2021 as the investment period. If we had chosen to purchase SOF0 in 2012 and 2018, the years following negative growth, and purchased TCL in the other cities, the investment result to date would be 131,534,500 yen.
This would have outperformed the 100,661,100 yen invested in SOXL during that period, and would have come close to the 132,670,600 yen achieved by investing all in TCL. This result is quite excellent, even considering that SOXL is currently much lower than TCL, and if it rises from here, it could surpass the result of investing all in TCL.
The performance looks promising, and since SOFL has plummeted this year, 2022, it might be better to buy SOSL instead of TECL. So, we've looked at the analysis of each, but will you go all-in on either TCL or SOXL? Or will you take the E-side of TCL and SOXL as we did this time and invest in both? Either way, SOXL is made up of semiconductors, and TECL is made up of semiconductor technology, so they are stocks that can be combined.
I hope this analysis will be of some help to those who are considering whether to invest in SOSL or TCL for the long term. As for what I will do, I talk about my future investment strategy when I disclose my assets once a month, so if you are interested, please take a look. By the way, I often get comments recently saying that my investment choices are too inconsistent, but even when I find a stock that I think is good, I change it frequently depending on the economic situation at the time, technical indicators, my emotions, etc.
When I started investing in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, I invested in global stocks and S&B I was undecided about the S&P 500, so compared to back then, I'm considering completely different stocks. If I had been determined to stick with buying the S&P 500 no matter what, I probably wouldn't have even looked at stocks like Levanas or Tesla.
But the right me will quickly change my mind about a stock I've already decided on, thinking, "This one's actually better," or "No, this one's better." But the right me, my dream, my goal, will never change. No matter what kind of strategist I am or what stocks I buy, I will achieve my goal of becoming a successful investor within 10 years, no matter what.
I will show you all through YouTube that even someone like me can become rich. I'm not wealthy, but I truly believe that if I had money, I could be much happier than I am now. People often say there are things more important than money, and of course there are many things that money can't buy, and I do n't think money is everything, but I've experienced the unpleasant feeling of "if only I had money" countless times in my 27 years of life.
I will graduate from a life bound by money within 10 years. And I want to become rich and find out what is truly more important than money. To all of you who are also aiming to become super rich, let's continue to work hard together! That's all for today's video. Thank you for sticking with my little skit until the end today. See you in the next video!
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