저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 켄 피셔는 관세 우려는 과도한 공포이며 시장에는 오히려 강세 신호라고 주장한다. 관세 규모 추정 - 대상 관세 품목 총액은 약 6,400억 달러로 언급된다. - 최대 관세율 25%가 적용되면 약 1,600억 달러의 세금 증가가 된다. - 2018년 미국 명목 GDP 성장(연 약 5%, 실질 3%, 물가 2%대) 기준 약 4조 달러 증가분 대비 약 4% 수준이다. 관세 영향 축소 요인 - 실제 관세율은 16% 수준으로 낮아질 가능성이 있어 GDP 대비 약 2.5% 수준으로 줄어든다. - 제3국 우회 수출, 암시장 유통 등으로 실제 부담은 더 작아질 것이라고 본다. - WTO가 이를 막을 수 있다는 기대는 믿지 않는다고 말한다. 트럼프 관세 목표 - 트럼프 대통령이 관세를 전면 철폐하려는 목표가 실현될지는 예측하기 어렵다고 본다. - 중국 관세는 북한 비핵화 협상을 이끌기 위한 목적이었다고 과거 발언을 언급한다. - 자동차 관세 전면 철폐 가능성은 있다고 보지만 실현 여부는 모른다고 한다. 시장 전망 - 관세에 대한 공포가 실제 위험보다 크기 때문에 강세장이 이어질 것이라고 본다. - 모두가 낙관할 때가 아니라 아직 문제와 공포를 찾는 단계이므로 강세 지속이라고 주장한다. 출연자 전망 요약 - 관세 리스크를 과대평가하는 시장 심리를 기회로 보는 장기 강세론 입장이다. - 구체적인 종목·지수 가격 목표치는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
제목: Tariffs are bullish because it's huge fear of a tiny thing: Ken Fisher 채널: Fox Business 화자:
원문: We want to get an analysis, not only of what's happening with Apple, but of what's happening with the markets and the economy. With billionaire investor Ken Fisher, who I'm very proud to say has been a longtime friend of mine. Ken, it's great to see you. Thank you for hanging in. Sorry, we're going to have to... we have a lot of... it's all this time for you. Now we only have four minutes, but I want to ask you first of all about the general economy, because a lot of people are concerned about what's happening with the trade discussions. I know you're a free trader, as well as I am, but we don't like it when we're taken advantage of. What we have seen so far, in terms of the threats and the actual tariffs we have implemented and the counter tariffs, are they a threat to our economy or our markets?
The tariffs are actually super bullish, in a way that nobody seems to understand. I've got two secret weapons on this one. One of them is fourth-grade arithmetic, and the other one is heroin, illegal heroin. You've got to understand both of those. First, you take all the tariffs anybody's ever talked about, the ones we've imposed and the retaliatory ones, and you add them up, and they come to a total of tariffable items of 640 billion. That's all the ones they've talked about, not fully imposed yet. If that maximum tariff rate was 25%, that would be a $160 billion tax increase. Tariff critics correctly point out that a tariff is always a tax. But stop, David, for a minute and think about this. A $160 billion potential tax increase in an $80 trillion world that's growing GDP this year, in nominal terms, at maybe 5%, with 3% real and a couple of percent inflation. That's approximately $4 trillion of nominal GDP growth. So that $160 billion is 4% of one year's growth rate. This is minuscule. When people make a big fear over a little bad, it's very bullish. Fear of a false factor is always bullish, but big fear of a little factor. Now, it's going to be smaller than that, because it's not going to get a 25% tariff rate. It's going to be more like 16%, which would take you down to two and a half percent of one year's GDP growth globally. And then it's going to be less than that, because on many of these products, and almost all the commodities, you sell them off to some other country where there isn't a tariff, and a broker turns around and sells them into the tariff country through black market or otherwise. And those who believe the WTO can stop that don't believe that. There's $50 billion. We just have a minute, five. I have to stop you, but I want to ask you specifically about President Trump's goal of getting tariffs... I mean, all of this has a purpose. At the end, he says his purpose is to get us down to zero tariffs, going and coming. Do you think that's possible, or is that just pie in the sky?
Quickly. Trying to figure out what President Trump's going to do is always tricky, because he's always distracting over here while he's doing something else over there. I don't try to predict that. I don't think you need to. What I said on this show, early last spring, was that Chinese tariffs were about getting North Korea to talk on denuclearization. Every time Trump does this, he's trying to do some other thing, and predicting that's tough to do.
That's absolutely true. But is it conceivable that we could end up, after all this stuff, with zero tariffs, at least on cars?
Sure, it's absolutely conceivable. Will it happen? I don't have a clue.
Yeah. But you think that it's bullish. I love your perspective. It's bullish because it's huge fear of a tiny little thing. When everybody's ecstatic over everything going great, that's when the fear should be real.
Correct. Quickly, yep.
All right. Indeed. In fact, right now we're still looking for fears. We're still looking for problems. That's bullish. This bull market's rolling on. This guy is not a... he knows when to be positive, and he's positive right now. Ken Fisher, wonderful to see you. Thank you so much for being here. I hope to see you soon.
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