저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 중국과의 무역 긴장은 단기 휴전 상태이며 미국 증시는 당분간 강세가 이어질 수 있으나, 경기 악화 시 무역전쟁이 재개될 위험이 있다는 견해. 무역·중국 전망: 트럼프 대통령이 무역전쟁을 원하지 않는다고 보며 미·중 긴장이 일시적으로 완화되었다고 평가. 다만 올해 말이나 내년 경기가 나빠지면 무역전쟁이 다시 발생할 수 있다고 봄. 미·중이 협력하면 세계를 주도할 수 있다고 강조. 북한 투자: 북한이 개방되면 투자하고 싶다는 입장. 북한이 필요한 것(전기 등)이 많아 비핵화 협상이 진행될 것으로 봄. 다만 미국 측 협상 결렬 가능성을 언급하며 트럼프 측이 협상을 망칠 수 있다는 우려를 제기. 아시아·일본 투자: 미국 증시는 사상 최고치 부근이라 비싸다고 판단해 현재 미국 투자는 거의 없음. 일본 증시(고점 대비 약 50% 하락)와 중국 증시(고점 대비 약 40% 하락)를 저평가로 보고 매수 중이라고 밝힘. 싱가포르 국부펀드가 미국 대형 금융·기술주를 매도하는 것을 언급하며 시장 흐름에 대한 관심 표명. 개인 성향: 본인은 미국 시민으로 미국 정치와 정책에 관심이 많다고 언급. 자녀에게 아르바이트 대신 중국어 강사 등 고소득 일자리를 권유하는 일화 소개. 출연자 전망: 미국 증시 단기 상승 가능성은 인정하나 중기적으로는 무역 리스크를 경계하고, 일본·중국 등 아시아 시장에 상대적으로 더 우호적인 입장.
다듬은 글
Treasury secretary minuchin says the trade war with China is quote on hold Jim Rogers is here legendary investor great to see you rate stop that Lia means no does it in Chinese Mandarin or Cantonese Mandarin Cantonese speaker myself now last time you're on the show you warned that a trade war can really upset the whole apple cart well now it appears we've got at least a short-term truce you approve of that well I can see the markets going up I know there's a shortage of prove it when I was in I went to big China conference in April and and the president said he's pulling back he doesn't want a trade war he's very clear he is pulling back and now apparently the u.s.
is pulling back too and if we're gonna pull back we're gonna have a great time for a while I don't think there's gonna be a trade war means they file we filed a few and everything's gonna be okay until the economy gets bad later this year next year then the trade war break out because mr. Trump will say it's your fault and I'll hit you you think I know you go don't you watch Fox News every day don't you watch Fox Business I know when I can when I can it's not often I live in Asia you live in Singapore I live in Singapore yeah yeah I think you know something about the next subject which is this President Trump tweeting about China and the North Korean border this one let me read this China must continue to be strong and tight on the border of North Korea until the deal is made the word is that recently the border has become much more porous and more has been filtering in another opinion on North Korea our spots are not doing a very good job headboard has been porous for a year last time I was there which was five years ago they had to build a new bridge because there were so many people going back and forth across the bridge North Korea twice twice yeah why I wanted to see if I could invest I wanted to see what was happening the kid is making very dramatic changes the kid hasn't Kim Jong good yeah yeah yeah I don't know his name I call him the kid but do you think he's making changes where a foreign investor would be allowed in and to keep his money and make some money I chair because he will let me in but the Americans won't let me I'm a citizen of the land of the free you I cannot enraging Kim Jong hoon the government the government gave me all kind of promises blah blah blah said okay fine but I'm a citizen of the land of the free I cannot invest in your country well you think you ever will invest in your jong-un once it's legal I hope I'm the first one there what would you buy into they don't have anything tablecloths Oh electricity anything you know about they need so therefore they should be making a deal with President Trump no matter what that kid is been trying to make a deal with America for three years Obama cut it back the bureaucrats in Washington cut it back when he was trying to he wanted to sign a peace treaty Obama's not Obama but his boys said no well the current negotiations are about whether they get rid of their nukes or not that's what we got to get rid of our nukes in South Korea I don't know Jim I can tell you I can tell you we're not and that's one reason the deal may falter now you're gonna say South Korea doesn't have any nukes what we're 2,000 American troops in South Korea if something happened that afternoon the nukes would be there from Okinawa so your opinion is that President Trump will mess up the deal or possible North Korea is that what your that seems to be the only risk I don't know if he's gonna hope he doesn't I hope he doesn't because the Chinese wanted the North Koreans wanted the South Koreans wanted the Russians wanted everybody wants it the risk is that mr.
Trump are his people won't mess it up why are you so down on mr. Trump I'm not gonna mr. Trump I want this deal to go through so I can invest in North Korea no no I want it to happen but no but you see what don't you watch Fox News Business News you see what he's saying I'm all it does American politics mean anything to you as an investor I mean you're a very successful guy does it make any difference to you about what's going on with Russia Russia Russia and the probes of Nora and all the rest of it has to how has to is America is the most important economy in the world a and I am an American citizen and taxpayer so I have to anyway but of course America is the most important economy I think it's going Trump's way I think he is winning this politically at this six months ago that's certainly what now I think he is that's a different story I don't know I should watch Fox but I will tell you that mr.
Trump is making China great again everybody in the world is not doing Bismil business with China because we're slapping them in the face and cutting them off no cutting them off they've just agreed to buy a total about the right cultural product you don't know about the Russians the Russian sanctions the Iranian sanctions the Chinese slap slap slap no what do you report on Fox News yes I do before pushing the rap if you go to Moscow Airport now it's full of Chinese five years ago if you went to Moscow Airport you couldn't see your Chinese now they're everywhere because they're all being pushed together by mr.
Trump and his policies and you think our policy visibly China will fail I didn't say that what do you think's the end I hope your goodness because America and China could just dominate the whole world if we work together we have the two largest economies in the world we could do anything we wanted unless we get into a fight and somebody in Washington seems to want to fight not me I want I want America and China to boom so we can all get rich would you like to be rich no comment absolutely no comment now you live in Singapore I think yes I do now the Singapore wealth fund what's it was it called Temasek Amari but okay okay the MAS and they have been selling I think they've cut their holdings in Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Amazon do they make anything of this because that's a giant national wealth fund it is one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world and somebody if that's rum says oh they've gone up a lot let's sell whether they're doing the right thing I don't know I'm not investing much in the US because the u.s.
is making all-time highs Stewart you buy low and sell high I know your parents don't do that so our buying Japan I'm buying Asia cuz those stocks the Japanese stock market is down 50 percent from its all-time high yeah well that's low the Chinese stock market is down 40% from its all-time high that's low most of our viewers don't think in terms of putting their money into the Japanese stock market or any other stock model except America don't you put any money here I not at the moment it's making all-time high you don't have money in America in a matter of shock virtually non Stuart I want to repeat these other markets are down 50% that's much cheaper than a market making all-time highs are you in the money on the investments you've made in the Japanese market and elsewhere in the world yes but they have invested over the years several years ago my gosh I won't even know I'm embarrassed how much money I'm making in Japan well I make plenty of mistakes don't think I don't make mistakes what do you do with it all my first wife serious talks about my mistakes my first what you worth hundreds of millions of not either I'm a simple person from Alabama okay so what do you do with your hundreds of millions of dollars what do you do have to pay the rent have to load what do you do what is your goal you've made a ton of money you and I are about the same generation I mean we're late in life you think I'm as old as you well I I hope I can leave some for my children not all for my children I don't want to spoil them I told my daughter she had to get a job all of her friends he's 14 why do you have to get a job you know what I thought she would go to McDonald's and make $8 an hour she's teaching Mandarin and making $25 an hour speak English the self-deprecating legend of the investment world Jim Rogers it was a pleasure though Jim I'm delighted to see you thanks dad right
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