저자: TomLee · 외국인
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트럼프 당선 이후 시장은 기술주 중심에서 중소형주·금융·지역은행·러셀2000 등 확산 장세로 옮겨갈 것이라는 주장. 엔비디아는 다음 세대 반도체 수요와 전력·건설 등 테마 때문에 여전히 유망하나, 단기 공급 이슈 가능성도 언급. 반도체 지수는 200일선 상회 종목이 25%에 그쳐 약세, 반등은 팔 기회로 봄. 엔비디아의 다우 편입은 이미 많이 오른 뒤의 뒤늦은 움직임으로 해석.
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let's bring it back to Scott wner who will be here with a group of great investors to help us figure out what the market might do next Scott okay Carl thanks a lot we're back with Tom Lee Josh Adam and Courtney we talked earlier Tom about keeping things General and looking at the background of this Gathering that set a record let's talk about positioning now where our fans want to think about putting their money if we don't talk about tech the deal of the year we can't talk about who wins it's clear that you've been a big supporter of the mag 7 what do you think now Tech might still work until the end of the year but now that the election is over I think investors will look for other places to put their money hoping that the market is getting bigger one place they might look is oh well where would animal spirits come back things that might be better off merged or where multiples are low it's possible for PE to grow which would lead people to small caps financials and the rest of the market well that's exactly what wolf research is talking about tonight money being a big election winner also being talked about are area Banks do you think that's a place to keep an eye on if former president Trump wins tonight and becomes president again yes neighborhood banks are talked about a lot right now because they haven't turned down a lot of mergers and Acquisitions this Administration there isn't much M and A going on because these are so hard to get through through this is likely to get worse under Trump's presidency so yes that is something to keep an eye on that's likely to start to take off year if Trump were elected to keep the tech theme going Adam I'm going to read you something from W bush analyst Dan IES that all of our fans know about it's about what would happen in the tech space if Trump won we think that a big change in tariffs and a tougher stance on China would have a big effect on the supply chain he says if Nvidia and Beijing fight back it's possible that apple and Tesla will be affected which could slow down the ad Revolution does he have a point or not I don't think investors are focused on the election I think they are focused on five or six growth themes one of them is a semis if he means a short-term problem with the supply he might be right but I believe that if you're going to spend money you should own compute and everything that goes with it that's something you want to own tools for electricity Manufacturing homes building materials and power are just a few of the themes that are already in place I also think that people are ready to own those ideas also I think the name big Tech is a bit misleading because of how much money it makes as long as you own it you can keep up with the S and P however there are a lot of stocks in the group that are up or Dam a lot this year apple is up 75% Dell is up 19% FICO is up 73% and GoDaddy is up 50% I mean there's a lot of spread out Intel has dropped 55% it was possible to pick stocks this year it wasn't just the mag 7 that worked since the S&P is so big I think that's a bit of an excuse however I think stock picks had a great year in Tech overall given how spread out the returns were under a possible Harris Administration don't we have regulatory problems to think about Josh big Tech hasn't EXA ly been welcomed or liked by the Biden government Google Apple Amazon and meta are all being targeted or threatened in some way yes and they face those dangers all over the world not just in the US I think that extension will stay the same you would think that the Republican candidate would help big business in a normal election if Donald Trump wins we'll probably be saying goodbye to the heads of the SEC and FTC that looks like a likely answer but Trump doesn't like Google very much all over social media tonight people are upset about how search seems to favor the haris side a lot of talk will be made about these policies and whether they're against Trump that happened with Facebook before when it was still called Facebook in other words don't think about it too much as the needle swings towards Trump look at what's already getting stronger Bitcoin is up 5% and hit a high point in November the Russell 2000 Futures are up 2.5% % which is a big change since there isn't much trading going on there also Courtney I agree with everything you said you can't say that Regional banks will go up and not think that the Russell will work it's pretty much the same trade Tesla on the other hand is up 7% after hours in the event that Trump wins those are likely the things that will last now we have to talk about competition and breaking up platforms all over again if it goes to Harris that will happen again again next year how about C this is the one place I think you've really seen leadership break down and this has been true all spring summer and fall we know how good broadcom has been and how good the Nvidia picture is what is AMA land research where are you where is asml is Samsung somewhere on the surface it's the weakest of what people think of as leadership in this case only 25% of semis are above their 200 day moving average between four and 6 weeks from now Semus will be in good season when it comes to Semus I think it's better to fade a bounce than to chase it I asked you before if Burkshire was going to sell Apple now I want to switch things around and ask you what you think about Nvidia being in the Dow based on what you've seen over the years as you say the fact that intel was in the Dow before Nvidia which makes up 7% of the S and p500 wasn't included may have made people think that the Dow doesn't really reflect the economy right now you could say that it's just catching on to a high momentum play much too late after it's already made its biggest gains I was just looking at the market capitalization charts of Nvidia and apple right now they are tied Nvidia will make about a third as much money as AMD next year and about half as much net income this means that Nidia stock is more expensive but it's growing so much faster at least not in the short term just because a stock is in the Dow doesn't mean you should buy it that's not a reason to buy at all according to history the Dow doesn't hold a lot of value this is more about confirming its role in the new tech economy which we kind of knew already so once more I don't think it's a sell the news maybe it's a buy because Intel gave up at this point though it looks like the da is just trying to stay valuable okay good stuff after a lot of news from Big Tech companies the NASDAQ had its worst week since September SEMA Modi has been keeping an eye on some of that hi sea hello Carl semiconductors are trying to make up for the fact that their market value dropped by more than $360 billion last week The Biggest Loser Nvidia is making up ground today as we wait for it to join the Dow on Friday Nvidia has also asked SK hyx a South Korean company that makes memory chips to speed up production of it its next Generation memory product it's seen as more evidence of how popular nvidia's Graphics processing units are this comes at a time when more and more experts are worried about how the election will affect the chip industry as a whole Bank of America is figuring out what would happen if vice president Harris wins a higher tax rate according to bof a would be bad for NVIDIA and other companies like Texas Instruments in Qualcomm which reports earnings this week BofA says that the biggest problem that could happen is the possibility of taxes under former president Trump which would be hard on the sector and make prices go up for memory and Equipment players to give you an idea the chip sector did better than the SNP by 51% on average when Democrats were in charge and by 38% when Republicans were tonight we have two big earnings reports one from nxp and one from ltis semiconductor tomorrow super micro will give us an important business update guys last trades Josh I'm staying with Yuber all right bran it's also Yuber the market always gets things wrong okay that's fine farmer Jim Nvidia press the Easy Button having fun I'm not sure what to say MAA meta sites and apps do not give up a then
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