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let's welcome in Tom Lee now fund strats head of research and a CNBC contributor with us as you see at post n welcome it's good to see you great to see let's hit Tech first um should we be surprised at this Resurgence um this melt up and it's um maybe caught some people by surprise um I I think investors should realize 2024 has been a year of uh surprising strength the market has avoided so many opportunities for weakness and now we're entering the final weeks of the Year where quite good visibility the next year so I I think stocks should finish very strong why do you think money is going to the mega caps now in the manner that it is up 1 and 3/4% today the NASDAQ up almost 4% over a month and able to achieve this Milestone one reason is Mega caps have been leading um so it's sort of what people reach into the Shelf when they risk on but second we know that when interest rates fall uh the mega caps actually are very sensitive to that and I I think today was a day where the odds of a December cut increased you know the probabilities are are now solidified and that's actually bullish for Tech because the CPI was you know some would say sticky but it was largely in line is that how you read it yeah yeah that's right and I think it's allowing the CPI print today allows people to imagine a path to 2% because shelter now is cooling to a level that's in line auto insurance which was at 25% earlier this year over year is now down to 13 so the two biggest contributors to CPI are in a downshift I don't think the fact that used cars are going up is going to reverse the fed's view I don't think the fed's going to tighten because used car prices are up all right so fed's cutting next week that's your base case yes and then what happens after that all bets are off wait and see what do you think uh I think the fed put remains in Play Because neutral is let's say 2 and a half to 3% we're at four 5 after the December cut so we know the fed's in a cutting cycle I actually think the best case is for the FED to do the fewest number of cuts next year that means the economy is pretty strong that's right it's strong they don't they're not harming the economy by keeping rates here and the labor market is is holding up and now we have a lot of Firepower for future cuts which support stocks okay you talk about a fed put you also talk about another put and that's a trump put yes he's going to be here tomorrow by the way ringing the opening bell people are excited about that uh down here for sure um but you say that that is a substantial part of your outlook for the new year the Trump put explain uh the Trump put is on the simplest level it is the a white house that is going to measure its success by how the stock market performs but it's also a president that's coming in into a second term but with a lot of EX previous experience so this is a cabinet that has good private sector acceptance and I think very markets friendly overall I I think investors who might have been cautious for the last few years years now want to be risk on next year all right so your outlook to me is interesting the way you sort of game out where the S&P can go because you say we're going to 7,000 by mid year which sounds amazing cuz most targets that I've seen are 7,000 at the top end for the entire year your full year forecast though is 6600 why uh part of it cyclical we're coming off two backtack 20% years and and there are five precedents to look at five of the five precedents since 1880 had a weaker second half so I'd say that's the base case the reason I think markets do better in the first half is that there is going to be a lot of enthusiasm about a new White House some of the headlines that come whether it's uh deregulation Etc and we know there's still a ton of cash and a lot of low leverage on the sidelines that's why stocks can rally and by the way 11% in in a few months we've seen that routinely the last couple of years but in the second half I think markets start to worry about the larger macro risks like the Middle East the potential risk of tariff and executing that and potentially the fact that Doge could be so successful that it could slow the economy you're you're worried about too being too efficient cutting too much and what the impact is going to be yes attention all stock market enthusiasts could Nvidia the Titan of the tech industry be on the verge of yet another groundbreaking leap with Whispers of a transformative project known as Blackwell making the rounds the excitement is palpable as the company prepares to unveil this ambitious leap in Ai and Quantum Computing technology Nvidia appears ready to redefine cuttingedge performance in the coming years but that's not all Supply is racing to catch up with the overwhelming demand are you ready to delve into how Nvidia is charting this bold course for the future even as rivals like AMD try to close the gap strap in as we explore the tantalizing details behind this emerg yes and and we can tell the market was sort of holding their breath on both because once Nvidia reported the markets began to levitate and of course we're seeing the market reaction today to treasury secretary um these are all both good events but also showing you there's been a lot of cash on the sidelines uh which is why we're rallying right although making a pretty good yield I imagine what's the impetus to leave those Sidelines if uh if rates can hold these levels overall well I I think one thing we have to keep in mind is There's 7 trillion of cash on the sidelines which I think in general portfolios are overweighted and risk-free and I don't know if it's going to be uh 5% 2 years from now so I think investors as they're planning ahead and and they're seeing an economy that's resilient I think the case for equities is still very strong right now what is your you you done any work on earnings for next year or the year after uh we're we're actually working on it now our Outlook comes out December 12th all right so we'll check back with you then yeah um meanwhile what what sectors are you do you favor at this point well I you know I think the template that we think makes sense is buy things that either benefit from a doish fed or a trump White House which is small caps um cyclicals like the financials the regional Banks and Industrials and of course crypto um especially Bitcoin and some of the proxies like micro strategy and similar scientific did you hear what we were just talking about can the Trump Administration get away with the progrowth policies and a doish Fed at the same time because some of them work against the FED being able to cut rates uh yeah I mean I I'd say the market is very skeptical at the moment that's what what we're hear from hearing from our clients but that also means that's that's room for positive surprise and I think one thing to be mindful of is the Fed can be doish even if there's resilient growth as long as inflationary pressures and expectations remain intact and so far that's been the case has it though we're seeing a little bit firmer core core readings on inflation and guess it depends on what he does with tariffs yeah but if you look at uh survey expectations whether the Federal Reserve survey or um Mish we're seeing five even six year lows on inflation expectations so we're back to prepandemic levels from what consumers see and then if oil Falls as you know that sort of pushes down the inflation forward curve in a world where microchips power everything from your phone to AI chatbots Nvidia stands as a towering figure over the past 2 years nvidia's stock has defied gravity doubling annually soaring to a 239 height in 2023 and proudly boasting an impressive 170% year-to-date increase it's as if nvidia's stock had a hotline to Destiny dialed in for Success this astounding trajectory however faces new challenges as the company looks ahead to 2025 according to Wall Street while the consensus anticipates a still robust 51% Revenue growth next year an almost Herculean effort given its projected $129 billion Revenue in 2024 nvidia's pace is starting to ease what plays into this anticipated growth slowdown the introduction of Blackwell nvidia's new generative Ai and Quantum Computing brainchild could usher in the next wave of performance platform on the one-year expectations right fives have not been as well behaved that's right and you know uh those surveys are notoriously uh a little funky because if you look at the range of answers and the actual data some people put a th% as the survey answerers so they they can tend to skew the actual medians right meantime there is this school of thought that Commodities are not suggesting rampant inflation or return to a double top CPI you got Europe increasingly exporting disinflationary narratives certainly China ye thought infl would pick up because of tariffs but as you know it it's not clear really what what ends up being implemented and if we if we get milder tariffs that's actually less inflationary pressures Paige one of the times over the weekend was about companies elbowing each other to get in front of the president-elect to make their case to be carved out of tariffs yes and then this morning Reuters has a piece on the farm industry again looking to be Exempted from a deportation are efforts how much policy risk do you think is going to be in embedded in the next year at least well I think this is what investors are concerned about because we know that there was a campaign that was run on tariffs and deportations but as you know those can be very harmful to the economy so I think that having the right cabinet pics can actually get us into sort of the right blend of sort of outcomes and I I think that's what the Market's starting to price in meaning you've been you've been impressed with the picks so far yes I think not only have I've been impressed but we can tell from our from our client feedback that the markets really like this the stakes are high with Blackwell touted as a complete Computing platform aligned to deliver astonishing Feats of Technology but will nvidia's demand numbers tell a similar tale CFO Colette cres highlighted the urgency in scaling up Supply to meet what she describes as a staggering customer requests during nvidia's fiscal 2025 Q3 earnings discussion nvidia's formidable competitor AMD isn't turning a blind eye either their data center with an eyebrow raising 122 % growth has Nvidia firmly in their sights yet nvidia's stronghold remains intact securing a whopping $38 billion from data center gpus last quarter eons ahead of amd's $3.5 billion amidst this race the Spectre of a slowing Revenue growth looms large with nvidia's earnings mapped to grow modestly in parallel with their revenue at around 50% this expected performance modulation redirects the Market's gaug towards valuation risks where a possible decrease in investor bidding could sway nvidia's stock from its predominant trading statecause some doubted the fact that well if Nvidia struggles well you know that means that over the mag sevs are going to go go down and then the overall Market's going to be in trouble not so fast you you've had a continued big jump in Tech positioning according to Deutsche Bank today you're looking at the stocks month to date for many of these names and it is Stark obviously where Nvidia is relative to the rest but uh they suggest positionings very elevated again um factoring in modest re acceleration and earnings growth bucking the gradual slowing over the last three quarters you know with regards to Nvidia and good analysis carry I I think we all know that it corrects quite often and then you usually that is a setup uh for a for a very big rally which I think is going to happen again there's no indication that demand for the chips that they producing has gone down at all uh the only thing I would worry about with Nvidia is when their supply catches up there's just no I don't see that on the near term horon wake me up when that happens it doesn't feel like it's anywhere uh anytime soon so if I can just you talk Joe about you know dip buying if Bitcoin uh corrected well hey guess what have it happening in Nvidia I'll bet you'll see the buying come in as we closer to another fiscal year nvidia's tale is far from reaching its final chapter although Whispers of slowed momentum circulate the Strategic launch of Blackwell might position Nvidia in the driver's seat pushing boundaries in AI advancement however with current indicators and wall Street's expectations nvidia's stock may not reach meteoric levels in 2025 a plausible 28% price uplift with a future PE standing at 40 paints a more restrained picture for investors the calculated Whispers of smart long-term Investments are much clearer than the siren song of quick monstrous returns in the landscape of stock exchanges where today's certainty could become tomorrow's speculation what are your thoughts on Invidia journey through the market Labyrinth weigh in with your views as we witness another chapter unfold in the exuberant play called the stock market
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