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welcome back to the breakdown with me nlw it's a daily podcast on macro bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world the breakdown is sponsored by nydig and produced and distributed by coindesk what's going on guys it is tuesday october 12th and today we are talking about what the entire bitcoin twitter community has been talking about for the last 24 hours and that of course is who cares what jamie dimon thinks of bitcoin this is almost too easy to dunk on in some ways but there is a long illustrious history of jamie dimon not liking bitcoin and i think that that saga creates its own sort of historical context and so i feel as though for posterity we have to incorporate what the community thinks about the latest comments from jamie dimon on bitcoin into the historical record for a little bit of context jamie dimon has been one of the most consistent long duration detractors of bitcoin in the traditional finance world rather than give you the full recap which is just so long i'll give you the ryan selkis twitter summary version these are all quotes so keep that in mind 2014 terrible store of value 2015 will not survive will be stopped 2016 going nowhere 2017 a fraud 2018 don't really give a 2019 well in 2019 jp morgan launched something called jpm coin in 2020 not my cup of tea 2021 i have no interest in it fool's gold and now worthless now some of you may be confused because in january didn't jp morgan's strategist say that bitcoin could rally as high as 146 thousand dollars per btc as it competes with gold this math was their estimate of the then current price a little under 30 000 times the total market supply times the 4.6 x it would need to do to grow to reach gold's 2.7 trillion of private sector gold investment this was a pretty bullish statement for jp morgan so of course they had to have a caveat and that caveat was that volatility would have to come down they wrote this long-term upside based on an equalization of the market cap of bitcoin to that of gold for investment purposes is conditional on the volatility of bitcoin converging to that of gold over the long term the reason is that for most institutional investors the volatility of each asset class matters in terms of portfolio risk management and the higher the volatility of an asset class the higher the risk capital consumed by this asset class still as they wrote then quote little doubt that the institutional flow impulse into bitcoin is what distinguishes 2020 from 2017.
so that was january but wait just last week jp morgan strategist put out another note that said quote institutional investors appear to be returning to bitcoin perhaps seeing it as a better inflation hedge than gold the re-emergence of inflation concerns among investors has renewed interest in the usage of bitcoin as an inflation hedge it is perhaps for these reasons that jamie dimon feels like he has to comment now and re-establish his own bonafides when it comes to his dislike of this asset so here's what he had to say i personally think that bitcoin is worthless but i don't want to be exposed i don't care it makes no difference to me our clients are adults they disagree that's what makes markets so if they want to have access to buy or sell bitcoin you know it's hard we can't custody it but we can give them legitimate as clean as possible access that was from yesterday during a video conference with the institutional of international finances annual members meeting and he said one other thing about bitcoin that's worth noting he said i'll just challenge the group to one other thing how do you know that it ends at 21 million you all read the algorithms you guys all believe that i don't know i've always been a skeptic of stuff like that twitter lit up for that one jameson lopped the cto of casa tweeted bro it's like five lines of code and then actually shared the lines of code where the having cycle and supply cap is enforced coinbase's brian armstrong tweeted yes i read it and then i wrote it coding up our own bitcoin node to make sure i understood it ceos without a science and engineering background are going to be at a disadvantage in the coming decades i think honestly probably politicians journalists in many roles too software is eating the world changing every industry luckily the tools to learn it are available online for free and are getting better and better it's accessible to almost anyone if they are willing to power through it and at least learn the basics numerai founder richard craig continued this theme saying this is our ruling class zero purchase on code algorithms or the difference between them but reliably skeptical of the new lee drogan of starkiller capital almost couldn't believe it tweeting the vast majority of the time you should assume incompetence as opposed to some more complex explanation for why someone acts or says something stupid i can't get there on this though jamie is too smart he's got to have too many smart people in his ear to be this dumb galaxy digital's mike novogratz almost laments this saying so strange for a man who has done a brilliant job running a giant bank his answers around bitcoin are sophomoric and he keeps doubling down on them i pray i stay open-minded my whole life this podcast is sponsored by nydig an institutional bitcoin firm that sees bitcoin as a gateway to financial security for people around the world find out more at nydic.com nlw that's nydig forward slash nlw another line of discussion on twitter is how much someone like jamie dimon the arch scion of the legacy financial system not liking bitcoin reinforces why so many of us like bitcoin alex edelman the ceo of lolly wrote jamie dimon had the audacity to say bitcoin is worthless on a day where jp morgan was literally closed i'm sorry but jamie is not gonna make it bitstein writes bitcoin is up nearly seven thousand percent since jamie dimon began calling it worthless zack voll wrote fail at mobile fintech ceo thinks bitcoin is worthless jamie dimon and jp morgan perfectly personify finance dinosaurs blue collar bitcoin tweets asking bankers to talk about bitcoin is like asking blockbuster and hollywood video what they think of this new netflix well no your bankers the government your financial advisor and anyone else that takes a percentage of your wealth on every transaction won't want bitcoin to succeed one concerning take came from judica the head of otc options trading at kraken who writes if this is the kind of stuff jamie dimon is saying about bitcoin in public just imagine what he's saying behind closed doors and private lobbying meetings with regulators i think my favorite quote joke about the whole thing came from breckyvon bitcoin over at swann who wrote jamie dimon walks into a bar and orders a drink the bartender says will you be paying in dollars or bitcoin dollars do you want to hear my opinion of bitcoin sure the bartender says it's worthless says jaime i know the bartender replies but let's hear it anyway now there are also a couple takes on this like i said it really was all of crypto twitter chatting yesterday that point to what it suggests about where we are in the cycle first a little throwback from macroscope who writes two things helped convince me to buy bitcoin under 1 000 in 2015 and 2016.
one china hated it two jamie dimon hated it for a long time now these have been pretty good investment guidelines to follow bitcoin kaz tweets michael bury ragequitting and jamie dimon admitting to being skeptical of math tells me we are nearing new bitcoin all-time highs send it to 100k zoo from three arrows challenges jaime saying i personally think jaime should put on a short on bitcoin on cme to provide liquidity into contango and then leave it to the people to decide put up or shut up sir finally joseph young nails it it's not a bitcoin bull market without jamie dimon saying it's worthless of course all of this hit different and was so accentuated yesterday because bitcoin was absolutely screaming we rallied to about 57 000 where we've now been for a day and everyone is simultaneously asking why as well as what's going to push us to a new all-time high we're currently up 90 from the july low and now glimpsing that mid 60 000 all-time high so let's see what bloomberg thinks quote as in past rallies many reasons have been cited for the latest surge they include easing concerns about regulatory efforts in the us and china and signs of a rebound in the computing power devoted to mining bitcoin optimism is also growing about possible u.s securities and exchange commission approval of a bitcoin exchange traded fund summing up what bloomberg is saying they're talking about how lindy the bitcoin asset is i.e a thing that was supposed to kill it actually just made it stronger the great hash rate migration out of china and they're talking about institutions and institutions coming in through something like an etf now one thing that many are suggesting however is that this rally isn't being driven by retail the block story today was trading data suggests retail traders aren't behind bitcoin's latest rally the block story follows data from b2c2 and here's the really important line quote more interesting however is the fact that crypto exchanges continue to be the notable outlier as the only category net selling overall implying that this move may be driven primarily by institutional money with retail on the sidelines so what they're looking at is how much different categories of traders are either buying or selling obviously if there's more selling going on it's more bearish versus more buying going on it's more bullish the only category that was net selling last week was crypto exchange users 57.4 percent of whom were selling meanwhile only 45.2 percent of otc brokers were selling meaning 55 or so of over-the-counter transactions were buying that certainly suggests institutional movement a coindesk piece seems to tell a similar story saying crypto focused funds took in more than double the amount of new money last week that it did the prior week as bullish sentiment returned to the bitcoin market digital asset investment products saw a total of 226 million dollars in inflows during the week ended last friday up from 90 million dollars the week before separately coin shares reported that the biggest jump was in bitcoin focused funds where inflows rose by 156 million to 225 million which is the highest those flows into bitcoin funds have been in five months the last time we saw inflows like this was may and it was at a similar price 58 500 then on chain analyst dylan leclair suggests this rally is different than that previous one however in that it's not really leveraged traders that are driving bitcoin towards 60 000.
he says it's this simple early in 2021 excess leverage and derivatives drove bitcoin past 60 thousand now we're right below that mark and it's almost all driven by spot market accumulation by the way currently 96 of all bitcoin out there is in profit meaning it's worth more than when it was bought which creates again another sort of strength in the market now i've explained previously why it has felt to me that autumn was so primed to be a bitcoin season so instead of just doing the too long didn't listen of myself you can go back and listen to that episode from a couple weeks ago i'll instead excerpt a thread from the uber popular twitter threader croissant eth they write are you ready for these next few months in crypto there have been so many things leading up to this exact point in time that it's very hard for me not to be extremely bullish let's take a deeper look on the one hand we have bitcoin starting to see levels of attention it hasn't since may lightning network adoption is going parabolic with el salvador's recent initiatives this trend will only continue as more nation states join in and the game theory ensues then we have the highly anticipated tap root upgrade coming for bitcoin in november bitcoin doesn't have upgrades a lot so when it does you probably want to pay attention the major upgrade is set to increase smart contract capability privacy and security on the blockchain we have all these catalysts for bitcoin while rumors of an etf are running rampant while previous attempts at an etf have failed we are getting a whole lot closer you didn't think we would put bitcoin on an etf with chinese mining centralization and environmental fund right lastly q4 is historically bullish for bitcoin and we have the macro landscape working for us at the same time with monetary policy disassociated from reality i would say things are looking particularly fantastic for bitcoin at this moment in time indeed this whole sentiment is really the theme of bitcoin twitter and thus this show right now travis kling talking about the market says you can say whatever you want to about ta but from a purely technical perspective it would be very odd to have a 55 pullback consolidation and expansion back to all-time highs over a six plus month period and only have price go a little higher dylan leclair one of the current mvps of twitter it's gotta be said writes there will be a scramble for bitcoin exposure on wall street before the end of the year every institution that doesn't have exposure will have to explain to their clients why they ignored the best performing asset of the year and decade inexcusable supply squeeze underway the career risk around bitcoin has flipped plan accordingly so who knows there's a lot of other things going on we still have regulatory questions to come but i continue to be extremely bullish on bitcoin right now and i think that you can see how the community is reacting to the comments of someone like jamie dimon reinforces that strength that we're feeling so a lot more exciting fall to be seen and you know i'll be covering it day after day so anyways guys i appreciate you listening and until tomorrow be safe and take care of each other peace
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