저자: LarryFink인용—진행자Nlw · 외국인
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결론: 우크라이나 전쟁으로 세계화가 후퇴하며 디지털 화폐 도입이 가속될 수 있다는 BlackRock 래리 핑크 서한을 중심으로 주간 암호화폐·매크로 동향을 정리한 영상이다. [블랙록 래리 핑크 서한] 러시아의 우크라이나 침공으로 지난 30년간의 세계화가 끝났다는 진단. 팬데믹 이후 국가·기업·개인 간 연결이 약해졌고 고립·내향화와 양극화가 심화되고 있다고 주장. 러시아 사업을 떠난 기업들의 대규모 철수(특히 에너지 기업의 수십억 달러 손실)를 중요한 충격으로 평가. 각국이 공급망과 제조 거점을 재검토할 것이며 멕시코·브라질이 수혜 가능성이 있다고 언급. 중앙은행은 높은 인플레이션을 감수할지, 고용·경기 둔화를 감수할지 선택해야 한다는 딜레마 제시. [디지털 화폐에 대한 시사점] 전쟁이 각국의 통화 의존도 재평가를 촉발해 디지털 화폐 도입을 앞당길 수 있다는 주장. 미 연준의 디지털 달러 연구, 국제 송금 비용 절감, 자금세탁 위험 감소 등을 거론. 블랙록은 스테이블코인과 기반 기술을 연구 중이나, 비주권 암호화폐와 중앙은행 디지털화폐(CBDC)를 구분하지 않아 구체적 투자 방향은 불명확. [기관 동향] 골드만삭스가 갤럭시 디지털을 상대로 첫 대형은행 암호화폐 장외거래 실행. 브리지워터가 암호화폐 펀드 투자를 검토 중이라는 보도, 코웬의 디지털자산 부문 신설, 제인스트리트의 니어 프로토콜 기반 대출 프로토콜 투자. 퀄컴의 1억 달러 규모 메타버스 펀드(AR/VR 중심) 조성. 엑슨모빌이 노스다코타 유정의 잉여 천연가스를 활용해 비트코인 채굴을 시험 운영 중이며 다른 지역 확대도 검토 중이라는 보도(미확인). [지정학·에너지] 중국과 사우디가 석유 위안화 결제를 논의 가속. 현재 석유의 약 80%가 달러 결제이며 1974년 이후 페트로달러 체제가 유지되어 옴. 러시아는 비우호국에 대해 루블화 결제를 요구하며 제재에 대응. 러시아 관리는 필요시 비트코인 결제도 언급. [매크로] 파월이 50bp 금리 인상을 언급. 2000년 3월 이후 단일 회의 50bp 인상이 없었다는 역사적 맥락 강조. 주식이 인플레이션 헤지 수단이라는 내러티브가 확산 중. [규제·정책] 플로리다 주지사가 세금 납부 암호화폐 수용을 검토 지시. 오스틴 시도 유사 검토. 뉴욕주는 작업증명(PoW) 채굴 모라토리엄 추진(강도는 완화). 인도는 암호화폐에 높은 과세를 담은 금융법안 진행. 태국은 4월 1일부터 지급 수단으로서의 암호화폐 사용을 금지. 엘살바도르는 시장 변동성을 이유로 비트코인 채권 발행 연기. 영국 중앙은행 규제 프레임워크 발표, 말레이시아 관리는 비트코인 법정화폐 인정 주장. [업계] BAYC 모회사이자 크립토펑크 IP 보유사 Yuga Labs가 4.5억 달러 펀딩 공식 발표. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 2022년을 '모든 것이 일어나는 해'로 규정. 다만 이번 영상 내 자산별 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the breakdown with me nlw it's a daily podcast on macro bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world the breakdown is sponsored by nexo dot io arcules and ftx and produced and distributed by coindesk what's going on guys it is saturday march 26th and that means it's time for the weekly recap before we get into that however if you are enjoying the breakdown please go subscribe give it a rating give it a review or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation come join us on the breakers discord you can find the link in the show notes or go to bit.ly breakdown pod also a disclosure as always in addition to them being a sponsor of the show i also work with ftx finally one more thing before we get into this weekly recap if you haven't bought your tickets yet i highly suggest you check out coindesk's consensus 2022 which is happening this year in austin texas for the first time it's going down june 9th through june 12th this event is one of the biggest in the industry and has a ton of topics that cross cut everything this industry touches the speakers are great from kathy wood to sam from ftx to cz to another thought leaders like punk6529 all in all i think it's going to be a really enlightening and fun time and if you're interested you can use code breakdown for 15 off check out coindesk.com consensus2022 all right this is a true weekly recap we're going to talk institutions we're going to talk geopolitics inflation macro and stuff from the industry specifically and we're going to start with institutions although it sort of combines geopolitics as well larry fink wrote a letter to blackrock investors about everything going on in ukraine with a somewhat surprising conclusion and given that blackrock is the world's largest asset manager i think it's worth seeing how they're discussing things quote the russian invasion of ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades we had already seen connectivity between nations companies and even people strained by two years of the pandemic it has left many communities and people feeling isolated and looking inward i believe this has exacerbated the polarization and extremist behavior that we are seeing across society today he notes that the big deal wasn't just the letter of the law of sanctions but in fact the mass exodus of private businesses from russia as well numerous commentators have noted that this was one of the biggest shocks to putin in the wake of his invasion to see so many companies particularly in the energy sector just taking multi-billion dollar losses on the chin to get away from russia fink sees this anti-globalization force coming out of russia as accelerating a trend that was already happening russia's aggression in ukraine and its subsequent decoupling from the global economy is going to prompt companies and governments worldwide to re-evaluate their dependencies and re-analyze their manufacturing and assembly footprints something that covett had already spurred many to start doing now the implications of this he says are that nations are going to reevaluate who they rely on what supply chains they're a part of and in that process some countries are going to lose while other countries he suggests countries like mexico and brazil stand to gain on the topic of inflation he basically just articulates the rock and the hard place that central banks find themselves in quote central banks must choose whether to live with higher inflation or slow economic activity and employment to lower inflation quickly this is in other words the r word by any other name that we discussed the other day but the thing that really got people's attention particularly in the crypto industry is the impact he suggests for this war on digital currencies quote finally a less discussed aspect of the war is its potential impact on accelerating digital currencies the war will prompt countries to re-evaluate their currency dependencies even before the war several governments were looking to play a more active role in digital currencies and to find the regulatory frameworks under which they operate the u.s central bank for example recently launched the study to examine the potential implications of a u.s digital dollar a global digital payment system thoughtfully designed can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption digital currencies can also help bring down the cost of cross-border payments for example when expatriate workers send earnings back to their families as we see increasing interest from our clients blackrock is studying digital currencies stable coins and the underlying technologies to understand how they can help us serve our clients so clearly fink here is not really giving any indications of how blackrock is going to be involved in the digital asset space in fact he doesn't even really differentiate between cryptocurrencies that are non-sovereign and sovereign central bank digital currencies it seems like they're more interested in the formal digital currencies that may come out of governments than they are in the non-sovereign versions that are such a big part of the industry that we are a part of ultimately what's most notable about this isn't the specifics but the fact that in this relatively short letter the leader of one of the world's most significant financial institutions is paying so much attention to the digital currency space nexo is the go-to platform for all things crypto invest in the hottest coins out there and start earning risk-free interest of up to 20 apr paid out daily need cash asap but don't want to sell use your crypto as collateral and receive a credit line at premium rates open your nexo account by march 31st and receive up to a 100 welcome bonus get started today at nexo dot io that's n-e-x-o dot io meet arcules the next generation cold storage wallet oculus secures your crypto using three-factor authentication providing a simpler safer and smarter way to store buy swap send and receive crypto oculus is offline cold storage your private keys are encrypted on the oculus keycard and are never online stay safe from hackers with no cords no charging no bluetooth just crypto security made simple buy oculus on amazon today the breakdown is sponsored by ftx u.s fdx us is the safe regulated way to buy and sell bitcoin and other digital assets with up to 85 percent lower fees than competitors there are no fixed minimum fees no ach transaction fees and no withdrawal fees one of the largest exchanges in the u.s fdx us is also the only leading exchange that supports both ethereum and solana nfts when you trade nfts on ftx you pay no gas fees download the ftx app today and use referral code breakdown to support the show there were many other things that happened on the institutional side of the market this week certainly given that this hasn't been the narrative for quite some time right goldman sachs became the first major u.s bank to do a crypto over-the-counter transaction with galaxy digital as their counterparty interestingly as basic as this seemed many financial publications said that it was likely to open up the bitcoin and crypto space and get more banks comfortable with this type of transaction so i guess we'll have to see ray dalio's bridgewater associates is according to reports published by coindesk on the verge of investing in a crypto fund which would be its first deployment into the crypto space cowan a prominent investment bank has created a digital assets division jane street is investing in a new lending protocol based on the near protocol chipmaker qualcomm has created their own metaverse fund the 100 million dollar snapdragon metaverse fund but it's focused on a different part of the metaverse so this is focused on a little bit heavier technology around augmented and virtual reality quote it will establish a grant program for software developers creating virtual and augmented reality content in fields such as gaming health and wellness media entertainment and education as well as content targeting businesses and then of course there is exxon not exactly an institution but certainly a big corporate again according to reports on coindesk exxon mobil is running a pilot program using excess natural gas that would otherwise be burned off from north dakota oil wells to power cryptocurrency mining operations and is considering doing the same at other sites around the globe according to people familiar with the matter the oil giant has an agreement with crusoe energy systems to take gas from an oil well pad in the back and shale basin to power mobile generators to run bitcoin mining servers on site said the people who ask not to be named because the information isn't public the pilot project which launched in january 2021 and expanded in july uses up 18 million cubic feet of gas per month that would have otherwise been burned off or flared because there aren't enough pipelines still in the realm of unconfirmed but seems pretty solid and if indeed a company the size and significance of exxon is thinking about how bitcoin integrates into their natural gas process you have to think that that is going to have ramifications for the rest of the industry so that's a little whistle-stop tour of the institutional side of the crypto industry what about what's going on in geopolitics well in addition to the general view of russia and ukraine that we just discussed with larry fink we've also got two really significant events in the energy space that have implications for the us dollar as you heard yesterday if you listen to my show the first is that china and saudi arabia are accelerating their conversations about pricing oil in the yuan right now 80 of the world's oil is priced in dollars saudi arabia's economy and currency are pegged to dollars and this has been the way of the world since 1974 after negotiations with president richard nixon this is why we call it the petrodollar system however these days china consumes 25 percent of saudi's oil output and is pushing hard for the yuan to be the settlement currency for more international trade in russia vladimir putin is biting back at sanctions by forcing what russia calls hostile states to pay for their energy from russia in rubles these are contracts that were formerly priced in dollars or euros that putin is now saying they will not fulfill unless those countries many of whom are lined up against russia because of its belligerence in the ukraine instead pay in russia's national currency the exact currency that sanctions are trying to tank a russian state official also off-handedly mentioned that if they needed to price things in bitcoin they would as well so you know there's that bringing it back more domestic in terms of inflation in the macro scene the big thing this week was jerome powell discussing 50 basis point rate hikes which while not seemingly very aggressive given the fact that inflation is at eight percent or more based on even official numbers it's pretty significant in historical context given that we haven't seen a 50 basis point rate hike in a single meeting since march of 2000 subsequent to which the dot-com bubble was burst and we went into recession also a bit of an interesting narrative watch in the macro space there is lots of chatter around how stocks are indeed inflation hedges and that's why they continue to be buoyant despite all of this volatility and then let's close out with our industry and obviously one of the big themes for 2022 is the relationship between governments and crypto and boy was that on display this week florida's governor ron desantis said that he had directed the state to explore accepting crypto for tax payments he said this is part of a larger discussion around signing a bill that would have a financial literacy requirement for graduating from high school the austin texas government is exploring something similar around tax payments meanwhile up north new york state is moving closer to a moratorium on proof-of-work mining the specifics of that moratorium have gotten a little less aggressive than they were before but obviously not something that those of us in new york at least are overly thrilled about in india the finance bill which includes extremely high crypto taxation is moving forward while in thailand they are outlawing cryptocurrency for payments not for use as a speculative asset or a tradable asset but just for payments starting april 1st in what could either be a small deal or a pretty big deal el salvador has delayed its bitcoin bond saying it's not the right time based on global market volatility now the reason this could be a big deal versus not such a big deal is that many countries many jurisdictions are looking at the el salvador experiment with keen eyes for some they're wondering if that's the type of policy they would pursue for other international actors such as the imf they're watching to see if this el salvador bitcoin thing represents a real threat to the way that the global monetary order is set up now if the bitcoin bond delay is just about what they say it's about global market volatility which obviously there is right now then it probably doesn't have any real impact one way or another on the success of the overall experiment if on the other hand they're finding much less demand for this thing than they thought or they're running into logistical or technical issues that could be a different story the bank of england has outlined a framework for regulating crypto which people are now pouring over and an official in malaysia has said that the government should recognize bitcoin as legal tender and then of course on top of this the industry continued to move forward as it always does as the cap end to a story from last week we got board ape yacht club parent and now crypto punk ip owner as well yuka labs formally announcing their 450 million dollar fundraise this friends as i have said is the year of absolutely everything and this week was no exception for now i want to say thanks again to my sponsors nexo.io oculus and ftx and thanks to you guys for listening until tomorrow be safe and take care of each other peace hey breakdown listeners come join coindesk's consensus 2022 the festival for the decentralized world this june 9th through the 12th in austin texas this is the only festival showcasing and celebrating all sides of blockchain crypto ecosystems web 3 and the metaverse and is designed for crypto newbies investors entrepreneurs developers and creators don't miss speakers like kathy wood sbf cz punk6529 and joe lubin to name just a few use code breakdown to get 15 off your pass at coindesk.com consensus2022
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